More Transnistria (fake?) News
Quick Hit: March 22, 2024
Hi Moldova Matters Readers! Today we’re going to cover some of the important updates from Transnistria, Moldovan international affairs and security from the past week. I’m going to be leaving on a short vacation this weekend and so will be back next week with a full roundup.
A Drone Attack in Transnistria?
This week the Transnistrian “authorities” announced what they claimed was a drone attack on a military base in Transnistria. They provided video purporting to show a kamikaze drone striking an Mi-8 Helicopter causing it to explode. Russia’s TASS state news agency called this an attack by “Ukraine-backed Moldovan forces.”
You can view the whole video on Twitter here.
What Happened?
The first thing that is important to understand is that this was not a functional helicopter. It is clear in the video that windows are missing and the entire aircraft seems to be in poor shape. Neither Transnistria nor the Russian army stationed there have any functional aircraft. This was immediately highlighted by the Reintegration Bureau who stated that the helicopter in question “has not been working for several years.” “Several” is doing some heavy lifting there - this helicopter has likely not flown in a decade or two.
The Minister for Reintegration, Oleg Serebrian, went on to state that “For us, this looks more like a provocation.”
Various experts have also chimed in noting multiple issues with the video. Most glaring is the fact that if the video is watched frame by frame the drone actually vanishes well before contacting the helicopter. Others have noted that following the initial explosion a fire starts which appears to be fueled by, well, fuel. It is hard to believe that an aircraft that has been sitting dormant for more than 10 years was fueled up.
Following the attack, Minister of Interior Adrian Efros made a statement saying:
“This was part of a disinformation campaign designed to cause panic, fear and instability among citizens. This is a montage, there was no explosion. Experts will speak in more detail. But this was part of a disinformation campaign and an attempt to provoke instability,”
Further details have not been provided but this analysis links up with other experts who have looked at the video.
Author’s Note: It is possible that we’ll have more information on this incident in the future. It is equally possible that it simply gets swept under the rug and forgotten. If this was a staged provocation designed to spread fear it did not work. Little reporting made it to the western press and Moldovans mostly shrugged and figured the video was doctored. This is in stark contrast to the mere rumors of annexation that sparked a flurry of articles, some good and some downright irresponsible, in the international press only weeks ago. Transnistria, and their Russian backers, appear to be trying to get the world’s attention in order to create fear and uncertainty. For every story or threat that does not break through we can expect a new one to take its place. There will be a continued tempo of strange stories from the region this spring.
Russian Elections in Moldova and Transnistria
The second important security and international affairs story this week concerned Vladimir Putin’s “reelection” and how voting was conducted in Moldova. Previously, the Moldovan government had given Russia permission to open one polling station at the Russian Embassy in Chisinau. Russian authorities had instead chosen to defy this permission and open additional polling stations in Transnistria. A move condemned by multiple foreign embassies in Chisinau including the United States. When the votes were “tallied” in Transnistria 97% of votes cast went to Putin.
Things went less smoothly in Chisinau where there were protestors in front of the Russian Embassy and a 54 year old man lobbed 2 molotov cocktails into the embassy grounds. The man was quickly apprehended by Moldovan police and determined to be a Moldovan citizen. He claimed he was also a Russian citizen but this has not been confirmed. No one was injured in the attack.
The Russian Foreign Ministry called the molotov cocktail event in Chisinau “the most blatant provocation abroad” of the election and the Russian Embassy in Chisinau called for "fair and severe" punishment for the man.
The man was put in preliminary detention for 20 days. He stated that he was “unhappy with the actions” of the Russian Federation when explaining his attack.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs announced that it is investigating the situation and Minister Adrian Efros stated that the investigation is firstly focusing on whether this was a spontaneous or planned event. Specifically, whether this man personally chose to attack the embassy or whether he was part of a planned provocation with other parties. The Minister speculated on this front saying that “Probably this incident was not a spontaneous one, it was a planned one.” He also noted the helicopter incident that immediately proceeded it saying:
" Because it was followed by another fake news from Tiraspol. We would make a causal link and analyze several options in this regard "
Whether or not this was a lone wolf attack or a planned provocation is not yet known.
In response to the opening of polling stations in Tiraspol the Moldovan government chose to expel a diplomat from the Russian Embassy in Chisinau. The chosen diplomat will have 72 hours to leave the country. The Russian Ambassador called this an "unfriendly step" which "will not go unanswered." The Russian government is expected to reciprocate by expelling a Moldovan diplomat in the near future but has not yet made any announcements.
Moldova has also announced that they will bar in-person attendance by Russian government officials at the upcoming UN Food and Agriculture Organization conference which will be held in Chisinau in May. Russian officials may call in via video link, or embassy staff can attend in person. Russia responded with what is becoming boilerplate language about how this “will not go unanswered,” etc.
Putin’s Reelection in Moldova
So who congratulated Putin on his “reelection” in Moldova? Pretty much the usual suspects. Igor Dodon, Bashkan Gustul, Ilan Shor and all the various Socialist and Shor proxies sent their congratulations. They joined the leaders of North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, etc. In Europe, only Viktor Orban extended congratulations to Mr. Putin.
President Sandu dodged questions about whether or not Moldova would officially recognize the elections stating instead that the elections were neither free nor fair and calling attention to the “removal” of all of Putin’s adversaries from the race.
Further Reading
Today we have an addendum to our short article with a few extras for you.
Putin's Next War, American Purpose. A compelling article looking at the history of Moldova’s struggle for democracy and the threat posed by Russia today. A particularly good line is “In the wider struggle for freedom, sovereignty, and democracy, Moldova matters.” I could not agree more.
Medvedev's Map. A few weeks ago we noted former Russian President Dimitri Medvedev’s appearance in front of a fairly crazy map purporting to show Russia’s desired outcome from the war in Ukraine. While reading back through old articles I recently realized that Medvedev actually put this map out back in August of 2022 and we covered it then as well. Reading back through articles I wrote in Spring and Summer of 2022 really highlighted how much the world has changed, and how little Russia’s ambition has. If you’re so inclined take a trip down memory (or nightmare) lane and check out what Moldova was going through in those early days of the war. It provides valuable perspective on how we got where we are today.
Bashkan Gutsul* Other than that, great as usual.