Weekly Roundup: Medvedev's Map and Other Updates
March 5th, 2024
Russia Gathers its Proxies
This week representatives of nearly all pro-Russian political forces in Moldova gathered at the "World Youth Festival" in Sochi Russia. This festival, which is unrelated to any international "World Youth Festivals" is a new creation of Putin’s which claimed, without evidence, to have 20,000 attendees from 190 countries.
At the festival, 200-300 Moldovans from the Socialist Party, Renaissance Party, youth from Gagauzia, Transnistria and other pro-Russian groups gathered. Gagauzian Bashkan Hutsel was in attendance as part of her trip to Russia this week. Otherwise the festival didn’t include any Moldovan notables, just youth elements from all these groups.
Speakers at the event included Patriarch Kirill who spoke in support of Russia’s war in Ukraine and on traditional values. More startling was former Russian President Dimitry Medvedev who appeared in a suit seemingly modeled on Dr. Evil in front of a map of a partitioned Ukraine.
Moldovan experts and commentators generally agreed that events like this are meant to expose young activists to approved Kremlin talking points and cultivate the next generation of pro-Russian voters. What the presence of all of these parties, many of whom do not work together or even publicly speak to one another, at the same event means is less clear. It is possible that the Kremlin is planning to broker a common pro-Kremlin anti-EU candidate in the presidential elections. If so, it is far from clear who that would be. Igor Dodon no longer has the political gravitas, or Kremlin favor, and Ilan Shor is in exile and would not be allowed to run. Moldova Political Scientist Angela Kolatsky speculated that should a common candidate be selected, they would most likely be "kept in the shadows until the last moment."
While in Russia, Bashkan Hutsel met with the Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Valentina Matvienko. Moldovan police announced that Shor was also in Russia last week leading to speculation that Shor and Hutsel also likely met on this trip.
About that map…
Ever since Medvedev gave his speech and put forward this pipe dream vision for a partition of Ukraine, commentators around the world have been spilling much virtual ink on what it means. Most clearly, Medvedev, whose actual influence in Russia is not really known, is affirming Russia’s maximalist war aims in terms of conquering most of Ukraine. In this vision, Ukraine and Kyiv is reduced to a small rump state in the Kyiv oblast while Poland, Hungary and Romania all take bites out of western Ukraine.
But what’s going on with Moldova? Maybe the most important thing is what isn’t going on. Moldova has not been partitioned between Russia and Romania. There is no rump state of Moldova either. Traditional parts of the Bessarabian Black Sea coast are not given to Moldova or to Romania. In essence this map leaves Moldova totally untouched. Why?
It’s possible that Russia envisions the maintenance of Moldova as an intact client state similar to the MSSR. More likely though this is about geopolitical messaging. Russia signaling that they don’t have territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine and trying to prevent the international uproar that a map carving up Moldova would inspire. That said, this is clearly not really the Kremlin’s aim. The idea that Russian would capture Odesa and most of Ukraine and then withdraw troops from Transnistria to leave Moldova alone is entirely lacking in credibility.
So if there’s any takeaway from this map and Medvedev’s fever dream presentation it is the following. Firstly, Russia has not given up on maximalist war aims and these aims directly threaten Moldova’s existence as a state. Secondly, that the audience for this presentation included representatives from all of Moldova’s pro-Russian political parties, none of whom have made any statements disavowing this plan.
International Affairs and Security
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of Moldovan international affairs and security news from the past week:
President Sandu traveled to Tirana Albania for the regional summit Ukraine - South Eastern Europe last week. At the summit the president reaffirmed Moldova’s support for Ukraine and discussed regional security and support mechanisms for Ukraine and Moldova with partners.
Ukraine clarified discussions they have had with Transnistria about opening a consular section in the region. The Ukrainian authorities explained that before the war consular support for Ukrainians in the region was carried out from the Embassy in Chisinau and Ukrainian consulate in Balti. Both would send delegations into the region to meet with citizens at the Ukrainian House of Culture as needed. Now, with Transnistria hosting a large number of Ukrainian refugees the Ukrainian government is in talks about a permanent consular outpost which they have discussed with the Moldovan government.
The chairmen of the parliaments of 23 governments, including Moldova, signed an open letter to US House Speaker Mike Johnson. The letter calls on Speaker Johnson to bring a vote for Ukraine aid to the floor of the house and pass the measure as soon as possible.
The leader of the Romanian Unionist far-right AUR Party, George Simion, explained his banning from Moldova and Ukraine noting "I hate this artificial state called the Republic of Moldova." He went on to state:
“…they [Moldovans] want them to have their own state, their own government, parliament, president, their own borders, they want the support of Alexander Soros from the World Bank and other persons, which now keep Moldova not in the Romanian, but in the German orbit, which is connected with international spheres of influence,”
Simion also stated that he is banned from Ukraine because he has called on the Ukrainian authorities to take responsibilities for massacres in WW2 committed by Soviet soldiers. It is worth noting that Mr. Simion does not also call for Romania to own up to its significant role in the Holocaust, much of which occurred on Moldovan soil.
Russian Foreign Minister Serghei Lavrov attacked Moldova during a diplomatic forum held in Turkey. At the event, Lavrov railed against Moldova for “following in the footsteps of the Kiev regime, abolishing everything Russian, discriminating against the Russian language…” etc etc. He also accused the Moldovan “regime” of openly wanting union with Romania and attempting to permanently dismantle the 5+2 talks about Transnistria. Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi, who was also in attendance, responded saying:
“Minister Lavrov and the Kremlin regime have no moral right to lecture on democracy and freedom. A country that imprisons opposition politicians and kills them, unreasonably attacks its neighbors, has nothing to offer the world but blood and pain,”
Documents in which the Moldovan Ministry of Defense has asked local companies for inventories of their company vehicles have appeared online. The Ministry of Defense confirmed the authenticity of the documents explaining they maintain inventories so that cars can be requisitioned in the case of military mobilization.
Ukraine’s "National Resistance Center," a part of their special operations command, has said that Ukrainian men crossing into Transnistria are being recruited by the FSB. They stated that men caught coming over the border are subject to interrogation as to Ukrainian defenses along the Transnistrian border and are threatened with expulsion back to Ukraine if they do not cooperate. The National Resistance Center calls on Ukrainian citizens not to go to Transnistria.
Political News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of Moldovan political news from the past week:
The Pro-EU opposition block grows. The Coalition for Unity and Welfare (CUB) party has joined the new coalition of Platform Dignity and Truth (DA), Social and Political Movement League of Cities and Communities (LOC) and the Party of Change. None of these parties currently have parliamentary representation and the block has not yet chosen a collective name. The new block also put out a statement accusing the PAS party of canceling the competition for the General Prosecutor in order to manipulate the rules and appoint someone from their party.
Parliament held a moment of silence for the death of Alexei Navalny. During this time, PAS deputies stood in silence while Socialist and Communist deputies kept their seats. Following the moment of silence a PAS deputy shouted “Gentlemen communists and socialists, shame on you” resulting in applause from the PAS seats.
Parliament has passed the law on cash restrictions in the second reading. The law will restrict the amount of cash used in various types of transactions depending on the items purchased (real estate, cars, etc) and the legal nature of the purchaser (individual, company, NGO, etc). Restrictions will come into effect January 1st, 2025 and gradually reduce the allowable cash amount year by year. The goal is to reduce areas to spend corruptly acquired money and increase transparency in the financial system.
Parliament passes a law on the expiration of unused vacation days in the first reading. Unused vacation days will now expire after 2 years. Employers will be required to notify employees of outstanding vacation days and their expiration date and to encourage employees to use their days before they expire.
PAS registers a bill in parliament for a vote by mail option for diaspora voters. The bill would pilot a project for mail in ballots in the United States and Canada during the next election. Opposition politicians including Dodon, Chicu and Ceban called out the choice of the US and Canada (PAS strongholds) instead of India, Russia or China. PAS representatives defended the choice noting the long distances traveled by voters in the US and Canada and the fact that voting by mail is already common there, meaning Moldovans in those countries would be familiar with it. They also noted Russia’s lack of democracy and the fact that there were only 19 Moldovan voters in China last election.
The government has formed an inter-ministerial working group to find solutions to the problems of farmers. The group is proposing to extend the short term loans of 500,000 lei and offer longer term loans at low interest up to 2 million lei. Meanwhile, Alexander Slusar, leader of the Farmer’s Power association most responsible for organizing protests and farmers demands has left his post. He noted the expiration of his term as director of the association and stated that he can no longer work with the government which is willing to let so many farmers fail. Of the new loans he called them too little too late saying that this intervention was needed last fall.
March 2nd was the day of remembrance for those who died in the 1992 war in Transnistria. President Sandu spoke at a memorial to the start of the war saying:
"Every year the beginning of spring in our country is overshadowed by the painful memory of a terrible armed conflict, which took hundreds of lives and broke thousands of other destinies. Today, on the Day of Remembrance and Gratitude, we are talking about the wounded and crippled, the children who were orphaned, the widows who lost their husbands or the parents who had to bury their sons who sacrificed themselves for our country, the Republic of Moldova. We bow to the heroes of those days and weeks, when the peace and good understanding of our lands were shaken by the deafening noise of bullets and shells.
…We keep the memory of the battles on the Dniester in 1992 and we solemnly undertake never to admit the repetition of that tragedy. And even if there are forces still trying to sow mistrust and discord between us, I say it plainly and bluntly: they will not succeed now or in the future. … Regardless of whether they live in Chisinau or Tiraspol, Balti or Tighina, Comrat or Taraclia, the people of Moldova value peace and freedom more than ever,"