Weekly Roundup
August 4, 2022
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Weekly Roundup and other content sent right to your email! And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!
War in Ukraine
This past week, 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed in a prison in Olenivka, occupied Ukraine. Russian sources claim that Ukraine launched rockets killing their own prisoners, but open source investigations and international reporting strongly suggest that Russia in fact murdered these prisoners in order to cover up the fact that they were being tortured. It is telling that by happenstance their graves were dug in advance and no guards at all were in the facility at the time of the explosion.
Responding to this war crime, President Sandu made the following statement:
This statement puts Moldova squarely behind Ukraine and in condemnation of Russia in stronger terms than have been previously used.
Meanwhile, former Russian President Dimitri Medvedev had a very busy week outlining Russian war aims on his social media accounts. First he published the following map showing what he believes will be the outcome of the war.
This map is interesting for a whole variety of reasons. Firstly, it shows Russia’s sweeping ambitions to annex most of Ukraine. Secondly, it seems to show a misunderstanding in Russia about Poland and Romania, implying that they too have grand imperial ambitions to recover territory that they once controlled. Finally, it’s interesting to note Moldova here. On one hand, it does not show Russia annexing any of the country including Transnistria. On the other hand, apparently Moldova will not have the ability to recover its lost territories on the Black Sea coast or in Northern Bessarabia! If there are any in Moldova pining for lost Imperial glory they must feel incredibly disappointed that Medvedev’s ill conceived map doesn’t include their visions.
Apparently not satisfied with the international condemnation that followed this map, or perhaps simply angry at himself for omitting Transnistria, Medvedev followed this up with a long post on his VK page that went into more detail. It’s important to note that Medvedev’s representatives now say that his account was hacked - though this is not terribly credible as these sentiments have been shared by him before.
In his post, Medvedev spoke of a plan to reunited former Soviet republics under Russian rule. Speaking of Transnistria he said:
“But it won't be long to wait. After the defeat of the nationalists in Odessa, Russia will finally have a common border, and the aspirations of the people to return to a big powerful family will be realized,”
He additionally went on to say that Georgia will only be reunited with its breakaway regions when Georgia itself is brought into Russia and that Kazakhstan is an “artificial state.”
One must wonder how former Obama administration officials who pegged high hopes on Medvedev as a liberal reformer are feeling now that he spends his time on imperial and even genocidal screeds on social media.
Moldovan Security
This week the Moldovan government voted to extend the State of Emergency for an additional 60 days citing the war, energy crisis and the need to manage refugee flows. The government notes that in this context they must make quick decisions and still need emergency powers. In a statement they noted:
“Logistic ties have been broken. In many countries, the risk of famine remains. Energy prices are rising, and the economic situation in the world is very difficult […] The blocking of Ukrainian ports affects our imports and exports.”
The Socialist and Communist parties opposed the declaration and walked out of parliament during the vote.
The government also approved a bill on “radiological security” for Moldova, ominously setting up mechanisms to inform citizens in the case of nuclear detonations or radiation hazards. The project envisions tailored warnings to localities about drinking water, whether they should stay indoors or evacuate and more. Additionally it sets out allowable radiation exposure levels including elevated levels presumably for first responders working to “save lives.” It’s unclear what prompted this bill other than the general situation or perhaps the Russians using a nuclear power plant as an artillery base east of the country. Presumably Moldovan government planning had never considered scenarios such as this and the law is an attempt to have something on the books in the case of a crisis.
Meanwhile, RISE Moldova released an investigation showing that Russian military officers from the Western Military District are actively recruiting Moldovan men into the Russian military in Transnistria. Recruiters message Moldovans on Telegram and pass out fliers promising good pay, 3 square meals a day, and nice living conditions. When a journalist posed as a potential recruit and asked the Russian officers if they would be sent to war in Ukraine the officer demurred and called the question “provocative.”
In other security news, Moldovan troops participating in the Peace Keeping mission in Kosovo announced that they are “holding positions and managing their responsibilities” in response to questions about the escalating tensions between Kosovo and Serbia. Moldova has a small peacekeeping contingent deployed in support of NATO’s mission in Kosovo. Tensions in the region, driven by Kosovo’s imposition of a deadline to change old Serbian license plates and IDs to Kosovo issued documents threatened to boil over last week but then calmed as Kosovo extended the deadline for 30 days.
Gagauzia Simmers
Protestors in Gagauzia have drafted an appeal to Russian Prime Minister Mishustin asking for cheaper gas and energy prices for the region.
“We ask you to reconsider the contract and gas price for Moldova. If it is not possible to revise the contract and gas price for the whole of Moldova, we kindly ask you to consider the issue of providing natural gas at affordable prices to the residents of Gagauzia,”
Protests have been ongoing in multiple cities and towns in Gagauzia this week and protestors are gathering signatures on this letter to the Russian leadership. Various announcements from spokespeople for the Duma and Russian presidential administration seem to be targeted at stoking tensions between Chisinau and Gagauzia as the Kremlin uses their energy weapon as a wedge in Moldovan politics. This is setting up a potentially serious political situation as winter approaches.
Economics
While the main story in economics remains the energy crisis - there was some good news this week for citizens, residents and businesses who are tired of wasting huge amounts of time waiting in line for stamped documents of one type or another. Moldova is launching “M-Delivery,” an online one-stop-shop for official documents where you can pay whatever fee is required and the government will *mail it to you.* It is hard to overstate what an absolute revolution the idea of mailing things is in government services in Moldova - a country that is seemingly constructed around waiting in long lines for stamps. It is possible to criticize the initiative asking why “mail” not “e-mail” but it’s a start.
Energy Crisis
As July moves into August and Chisinau continues to have hot, muggy weather, the topic of conversation continues to be the idea that “winter is coming.” Over the last few weeks we’ve seen multiple announcements of government initiatives around energy security, but this week we are starting to see these moves in the context of a 3 pronged approach.
Diversification of short term energy supply
Plans to cut back consumption and subsidize costs
Long term energy diversification
This week, policies on all 3 points were announced. Firstly, Moldova has signed contracts with 3 Ukrainian companies to purchase 30% of the needed electricity for the country this winter. The price is $77 / MWh compared to $59.9 / MWh from MoldGRES, the power plant in Transnistria. The Ministry of Infrastructure has announced that prices for consumers will not rise with this deal but also that Moldova still expects to buy large amounts of power this winter from MoldGRES (hopefully).
Secondly, Minister Spinu announced that Moldova plans on a 15% reduction in natural gas consumption this winter mirroring EU plans to reduce consumption by the same amount. It’s not clear where this number comes from in Moldova’s case or if it was just borrowed from the EU. The minister noted that the government is planning on 3 possible scenarios: 1) that Russia will reduce supply by 35% (like last fall), 2) that Russia will cut supply by 50%, and 3) that Russia will fully cut off the supply of gas this winter.
In order to hit this 15% target, or even greater reductions if there is a full cutoff, the following proposals have been announced:
Online School - In the case of shortages mixed online offline school will be considered (e.g. 10 in person days / month) or full online learning for schools if needed.
Streetlights will be turned off at 11 pm
Central heating will be reduced by 10%
Remote work - state employees will work in shifts or be sent to remote work
Minimal heating when buildings not in use - heat will be turned down to the minimum each night and on weekends
Limit indoor temperatures to 19C (66F) in hotels, restaurants, etc
Non residential cuts - In the case of a total gas shutoff, non-residential customers may be turned off completely
The government says that combined with EBRD support and various international loans, and assuming a spot-price of gas at 1500 euros / thousand cubic meters, this should assure Moldova’s supply through January or mid February. So it’s a start, but there’s more work to be done. Worryingly, this assumed price is far lower than the current market price in much of Western Europe and may not at all reflect prices this winter.
Long term, the government had announced an expedited process for companies and individuals to invest in solar and renewable energy. Approvals will be done more quickly and there is now a mechanism for the energy companies paying for excess production by individuals. Highlighting this, Prime Minister Gavrilita visited the country’s largest solar park this week to talk about the importance of renewable energy. The solar power plant cost $4 million dollars to build and was made possible be Chinese investment.
Additionally, the government plans to plant 400 hectares of willow trees for use in wood-burning stoves and biomass heating. Willows were selected for their speed of growth but the minister noted:
“It is clear that this will not happen this winter. No matter how fast the trees grow, they will not grow in a year,”
This comes as MoldSilva, the national forestry agency, is reporting that demand for firewood is far outstripping supply. Prices are up 10% from last year but stockpiles are still being run down across the country. The agency says that there is still time to replenish stocks by winter but increased demand in August is not a good omen.
Crime and Corruption
This week there were lots of stories in our crime and corruption section so we’ve decided to do a rapid-fire roundup of the most important news to watch:
Bomb Threats - Starting July 31 the airport increased security measures and will now only admit passengers with a valid ticket. All passengers will go through security at the airport entrance and the entire airport will be patrolled by police and bomb sniffing dogs. Due to these new measures, the airport was not evacuated as threats continued to roll in over the course of the week and disruptions to flights were reduced. Threats continued against buildings across the country.
Russian pop star Philip Kirkorov was denied entry to Moldova - The singer was detained at the airport and then told by border guards that the country is “temporarily closed to tourists.” He was sent back to Russia. Lawyers for Shor Party leader Marina Tauber reacted angrily saying that Kirkorov was a key witness in their case (and correctly noting that the country is not in fact closed to tourists). Kirkorov later made a statement from Russia railing against the Moldovan authorities and saying that he was coming to testify that he did not receive 200,000 euros from the Shor party for the ill-fated concert that never was. He claims that he was paid but that his “representatives needed to examine the contract” and did not say how much - only that the Shor party had nothing to do with it. At the same time, he noted how Ilan Shor and Marina Tauber have been his close personal friends for over 25 years.
Parliament has passed a law proposed by the President on the confiscation of property obtained illegally. The new standard of proof changes from "obtained" illegally to "probably obtained illegally." After being convicted of a crime public officials’ wealth, obtained over the 5 years before the crime, can be evaluated and confiscated if they are unable to justify the source of that wealth.
Mr. Dodon is allowed to speak to the press? - Prosecutors alleged that Mr. Dodon was violating the terms of his house arrest which did not permit him to speak to the press. Dodon’s lawyers confirmed with the judge that he is in fact allowed to speak to the press and is now considering legal action against the prosecutors for this “false information.” The actual terms of his arrest are as follows: "Dodon is forbidden to leave the house, communicate live or by phone with the participants in the case in which he is involved. The only exception is the relatives of the ex-president" It may be noted that the right to speak to the press is a bit of a glaring hole in “not communicating with participants in the case.” Meanwhile, Dodon’s brother in law, who attempted to eat evidence during his arrest, had his preliminary arrest extended by 20 days rather than the 30 days requested by prosecutors. It appears the judge may be indicating that it’s time prosecutors show their hand and that the court will not tolerate prolonged pre-trial detention. We will see.
Moldova wins in Stockholm Arbitration Court - This week, Moldova won it’s case against Komaksavia Airport Invest Ltd, the company that owns a 49 year concession to run the Chisinau airport. For background, in 2013 a 49 year contract to run the airport was given to Avia Invest LTD which was owned by 2 Russian firms. Almost immediately ownership began to bounce around through various offshore companies and jurisdictions with the current owner being a Cyprus based firm. No one knows who owns the company that run’s Moldova’s main airport but it is widely suspected that Ilan Shor is behind the company. In 2020 the State Property Agency moved to kill the concession which led Komaksavia Airport Invest Ltd bringing the government to court and demanding either Moldova honor the contract or pay 885 million euros in damages. The Stockholm Arbitration Court found in Moldova’s favor noting that the airport concession company(s) failed to undertake the required investments as per their contract, and awarding Moldova 216,600 euros and forcing the company to pay an additional 422,500 euros in arbitration fees. This is a major win for Moldova but we have to continue following the story to see what it means for the airport in the future.
Ending on a High Note
This week, Moldovans fell in love with a video titled “Traveling to the ‘Worst’ Country in Europe” in which travel vloggers Erik, Thomas and Stefan visited Moldova to see if all the bad things said about the country were true. In the video, the foreign travelers had a heartwarming adventure where they meet an elderly local man and incorporate him into all their travels around the country becoming fast friends. The video is very worth a watch and brilliantly highlights Moldova’s warm hospitality!
And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!