Weekly Roundup: The Post Election Shakeup Begins
November 11, 2024
Cabinet Reshuffles and Election Aftermath
Following the results of the presidential elections and EU referendum President Sandu has repeatedly said that she has heard the voices of citizens and that changes are coming. On November 7th Prime Minister Recean announced that a cabinet reshuffle would occur and that there would be changes to the government in the “next 10 days.” The government seems to have a goal of putting new ministers into office by December, but there have been no clear statements on the overall shape of the reshuffle.
Today, November 11th, saw the first resignation with Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development Andrei Spinu announcing his departure from the government and from the PAS Party. Spinu said:
"In recent years, I have taken on difficult tasks so that our country can succeed. Now, more than ever, I know that Moldova is moving in the right direction.” (…)
"As of today, I am leaving the Moldovan government and the Action and Solidarity Party. I hope that this step will allow us to return to public discussions about Moldova and to discuss less about this or that person, as the enemies of our country,"
Andrei Spinu has been a lightening rod attracting regular criticism and accusations of corruption and illegal dealings associated with his former career as a successful international businessman. None of these accusations have been substantiated but among many voters his public image has been tainted by the continuous opposition criticisms. Speaker Grosu and President Sandu thanked Spinu for his service both in the government and in the party.
Speaker Grosu foreshadowed additional resignations stated that “we are most concerned about justice" but he refused to indicate either way if the current Minister of Justice would be replaced.
A New Direction on Justice Reform?
Also on November 11th, President Sandu convened a meeting of the Supreme Security Council to discuss the fight against corruption. In a press conference following the meeting the President indicated a renewed urgency in reforms to combat political and electoral corruption. She stated that:
"The government, together with the Parliament, is to come up with a concrete plan regarding the reduction of the term of examination of cases regarding political corruption
The President spoke of the need for the urgent creation of an Anticorruption Court and promised public consultations on the proposed court this week. She also noted that political leaders from other parties as well as civil society representatives will be invited to the Presidency for a meeting on Thursday. At the meeting all participants will have the opportunity to present their ideas for combatting political and electoral corruption.
Clearly the magnitude of Russian interference in the recent elections has kick started a race to secure the country’s electoral system ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
President Sandu also spoke of the need to change the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s office saying:
"We must admit that the changes made in the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office have not yielded results. The recommendation of the Supreme Security Council for the government is to develop a new proposal to change the situation in the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, because we have seen a complete failure in the fight against large-scale corruption, especially political corruption,"
She refused to comment on whether Anti Corruption Prosecutor Veronica Dragalin would remain in post.
The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s office released a statement in response welcoming “structural and legislative” efforts at supporting the office and complaining about a lack of staff, resources and office space. They also noted that legislation introduced in March of this year delineated responsibilities for anti-corruption investigations and that their office is no longer responsible for investigating electoral corruption.
While these discussions begin about a new direction on justice reform1 the current vetting process is still ongoing. This week Judge Marianna Ursachi of the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) failed the vetting process. The commissions report, and its recommendation that she be dismissed, have been passed to the Superior Council of Magistracy (SCM) which holds the final decision. This represents the end of the vetting of the 5 Judges of the SCJ and the results were stark. 2 judges resigned rather than face vetting, 2 failed vetting and 1 passed.
Other Post Election News
Here’s a roundup of the other stories involving the fallout from the elections:
Police have updated the public on investigations related to voter bribery. So far 5 million lei in fines have been registered against those who took bribes and the process is ongoing. Additionally 55 criminal cases have been opened in connection with voter bribery. This week 2 men were arrested for setting a police car on fire on the night before the election. The car was parked in a police lot when one man set it on fire with a molotov cocktail. The second man allegedly instructed him to set the fire and promised him payment. He in turn was in contact with elements of the Russian Security Services.
The German Foreign Ministry called the bomb threats against polling stations outside Moldova a "a massive and coordinated attempt" at preventing diaspora voters from going to the polls. Bomb threats particularly targeted polling places in countries with large diaspora populations including Germany, Romania, France, the UK and Italy.2
Igor Dodon and the Socialist Party announced that they do not recognize the election results. Dodon accused Sandu of being the “president of the diaspora” and called Stoianoglo the “the president of the people of Moldova.” Dodon accused the government of falsifying the results and said the election was neither free nor fair citing the opening of only 2 polling places in Russia, long lines at the Transnistrian border, etc. At no point did he mention voter bribery, videos of planeloads of people being transported to the polls by Russia or any other such inconvenient facts. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov also stated that the election was illegitimate saying “She is not the president of her country, because the majority of the population in her country did not vote for her.” He refused to comment on whether or not Russia would officially recognize the results.
PAS spokeswoman Adriana Vlas responded to Mr. Dodon and the Socialists saying:
"Igor Dodon, whom Plahotniuc brought to the presidency in 2016, was defeated in the 2020 elections, despite having all the power in the country. The Kremlin did not allow him to run in 2024 because of his weakness as a politician, disappointed and dissatisfied with everything. He is the last person who can speak about democracy, a free and fair electoral process. Despite the interference of fugitive thieves in these elections and votes bought for millions of dollars, the citizens of Moldova expressed their opinion through voting, choosing the European path of development for our country,"
The Moldovan government responded to Russian accusations about the election citing international observers reports lauding a free and fair election in spite of Russian interference. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Russia’s criticism of a democratic process saying that democracy is something that the Kremlin has “only a theoretical understanding” of. Government spokesman Daniel Voda held up a mirror at a press conference calling on Russia to “look at yourself, and then judge others” and saying that “You see the speck in someone else's eye, but you don't notice the log in your own.”
President Sandu visited Moldova’s oldest voter following the elections. She made the following statement about the meeting:
"I listened to his fascinating life story - about the two deportations of his family, about how difficult it was after returning home, and about many other trials he went through. He told me how hardworking people suffered during the years of the totalitarian regime, but continued to work for the good of the country and compatriots. Even though he can no longer read and his hearing is worse, he is very aware of the situation in Moldova and in the world. He told me how much he is worried about the war in Ukraine and that he dreams of peace. According to him, he went to the elections because he wants to see the day when Moldova becomes a member of the European Union,"
Security News: Two Russian Drones Crash in Moldova
In the last few days the Moldovan police have reported people finding 2 identical drones, one in Causeni and one in Riscani.
The police noted that the drones did not have any explosive payload and that they are continuing to investigate their source. On November 9th US military analyst Rob Lee posted images on twitter showing the same type of drone and explaining that they are a new type of decoy used by Russia. The drones have no explosive payload but carry a specially designed foil wrapped ball which increases their radar cross section and makes them appear bigger than they are. Russia launched over 2,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine in October alone with around half of them being decoys.
President Sandu reacted to questions about the drones saying:
"From the first day of the war, we have done everything possible to protect Moldova's airspace. Including purchasing a radar that can detect objects that pose a danger to citizens. According to the agencies, these drones do not pose a threat to citizens, but we must remain vigilant and continue to purchase the necessary equipment to protect the country and every citizen,"
It is unclear if Moldovan radars detected the drones when they entered the country’s airspace.
Russian Mystery Ships?
Another security story from the last few weeks involves an article published by the US think-tank Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The article discusses the docking of Russian cargo ships at Moldova’s Port of Giurgiulești. It speculates that Russia could infiltrate troops on these cargo ships bypassing any inspections and create a “Crimea Scenario” whereby soldiers suddenly appear and seize Moldova by surprise linking up with those in Transnistria. CEPA refers to this as a “clear threat” while also saying of the ships that they “may be innocent.”
On its face this article is ludicrous. If Russia did land some hundreds of troops without heavy weapons in Giurgiulești the Moldovan Army would face a rare scenario where they would have absolute numerical and firepower superiority. Not to mention Ukraine being given every reason to support Moldova and to “solve” the Transnistria issue in the way that they prefer. CEPA’s publishing of this article was negligent at best.
The Port of Giurgiulești agrees and sent them a strongly worded letter asking for clarifications. Firstly, they note that they were not asked for comment on the piece. Secondly, that all ships coming to and from Giurgiulești are inspected by the Romanian authorities in Sulina responsible for the Danube delta region and Moldovan authorities later. The Russian ships in question were transporting coal and fertilizer, neither of which is under Moldovan sanctions (fertilizer isn’t under EU sanctions either). They requested that CEPA update the article… which they didn’t.3
Politics and International Affairs
Here’s a roundup of the top political and international affairs stories of the week:
President Sandu congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory writing: "President Donald Trump, congratulations on your election victory. Moldova values its relations with the United States and hopes to develop cooperation that will ensure a more prosperous and secure future for our people." President Biden also congratulated Maia Sandu last week on her election victory.
President Sandu appealed for more support at the European Political Community Summit in Budapest. She said that she was at the event to talk about the situation in Moldova and stress that the nation needs more “support to strengthen our institutions, to better protect democracy in the country.” At the event the President met with the leaders of France, Italy, the UK, Romania, Poland, the European Council and European Commission who put out a joint statement of support for Moldova. The statement celebrated President Sandu’s reelection and the passage of the referendum while condemning Russian interference.
Irina Vlah announced the creation of a new political party called "Heart of Moldova." Vlah, who received 5.38% of the vote in the first round of presidential elections, promised to "build a different policy based on the interests of the country and its citizens." As with her campaign there were no clear policies announced only attacks on the PAS government for “destroying democracy,” running up the national debt, etc. She clearly indicated a focus on building up the party to compete in the 2025 parliamentary elections.
Tudor Ulianovschi announced that he was joining the European Social Democratic Party PSDE. Ulianovschi, who got 0.5% of the vote in the first round, will become the vice president of the extra-parliamentary opposition party formerly run by Vladimir Plahotniuc.
Economics and Infrastructure
Additional information has come out about the EU’s 1.8 billion euro pledge of support to Moldova. The composition of this aid will be 300 million euros in grants as well as 1.5 billion euros in loans. Spending will be focused on tangible infrastructure elements in areas such as healthcare, education, transportations, interconnectivity with the EU, etc. The proposed design is similar to the EU’s “Reform and Growth Mechanism” for the Western Balkans. Moldova will draw up a list of spending and investment priorities and the EU will give the loans contingent on specific reforms being passed and implemented.
The high percentage of loans vs grants has drawn criticism from the pro-Russian opposition (see Irina Vlah above) that the program constitutes a debt trap. They claim that Moldova’s debt has expanded 1.5 times in the last 3 years and that this program will continue a process of unsustainable borrowing. Moldovan experts note that this isn’t true. Moldova’s national debt has gone up over the last 3 years in absolute terms but not in terms of the debt to GDP ratio that actually matters. In 2021 Moldova’s debt was 19.2% of GDP and in 2024 it is 19.4% of GDP. Moldova spends 5-6% of its budget annually on debt service which is far lower than the 12.8% average in the region. Critically, this debt will not be borrowed at the international rates available to Moldova. The EU will issue these loans at their own international borrowing rate effectively guaranteeing Moldova the lowest possible interest rate.
This week Romanian MEP Siegfried Muresan stated that while the European Parliament must still vote on this package they expect the first tranches to arrive in Moldova in Spring 2025. He also noted that future tranches of the pledge support will be contingent on Moldova electing a pro-EU parliament next year.
Other Economic and Infrastructure News
Here’s a roundup of the other top economics and infrastructure news of the last weeks:
Russia has still not given any indication of what they will do when Ukraine ceases gas transit at the end of the year. The government has prepared a 2024-2025 winter heating plan that envision 2 possible scenarios. In the first, the Russians pipe gas to Transnistria via an alternate route - in this case Moldova will not interfere. In the second, Russia takes no action effectively cutting off Transnistria. In this case the government is prepared to supply gas to vulnerable consumers in the region in exchange for payment. To prepare for this scenario the government is stocking up on fuel oil for Thermoelectric plants, generators for public institutions and is preparing to buy more electricity from Romania. Minister Parlikov has stated that Moldova is ready for winter and that Energocom has 47 million cubic meters of gas in storage (around 50% in Romania, 50% in Ukraine). He did not comment on potential rises in energy prices if Russia cuts off gas to Transnistria.
Energy expert Sergiu Tifolat did. He estimated a rise in electricity prices of 20-30% if the MGRES power plant is taken offline due to lack of gas. Tifolat also spoke about the costs of subsidizing Transnistria in the case of a gas cutoff noting that there are 2 problems. The first is simply buying gas for residents so that they don’t freeze. The second is that the region uses the income from selling the gas they receive free from Russia to pay for social programs on which people rely. Taken together he estimates a price of around 300 million euros / year to make up the difference should the gas get cut off.
The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection announced a new energy subsidy program for this winter. In past years consumers applied for subsidies and were given a vulnerability category that determined compensation. This was then reflected directly in their bills. This year there will be no categories but an allocation of compensation determined by each individual application. The compensation will be paid in cash via M-Pay. The Ministry explained that cash payments are simpler to implement and can encourage people to save more energy and keep the extra money.
The Ministry of Energy launched an energy efficient appliance program. Families can apply to receive up to 7000 lei towards a new energy efficient household appliance if they trade in a working older model. The program is funded with 54 million lei of government funds and is aimed at reducing energy consumption by removing old appliance from circulation.
The Finch Ratings Agency has moved Moldova up 2 places to B+ (B1 equivalent from Moody’s). This puts Moldova on par with Albania and Montenegro. The rating noted Moldova’s commitment to macro-financial stability, low public debt and access to credit markets. Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba called the report "a very strong signal for investors."
Moldovan state enterprise Energocom was ranked #100 in the largest companies in South East Europe. The company saw revenues of around 890 million euros in 2023. It is Moldova’s only company on the list.4
Back in September I wrote an article on path’s not taken in justice reform discussing the reasons the current process is so slow and some options on what could be done to change that. It also addressed the long delayed Anti-Corruption Court and other potential tools that thus far have not been seriously considered.
The use of bomb threats against polling stations in the US elections and the US officials attributing the attacks to Russian interference has not gone unnoticed in Moldova. It strengthens Moldova’s argument that the country is being used as a testing ground for election interference tactics which will then be used elsewhere.
I can’t address every such poorly written English language article at Moldova Matters but I’m going to try to write a piece soon on the general phenomenon of bad reporting about Moldova by people who have never been here. This article followed the typical playbook where the Moldovan press did their jobs investigating the claims and debunking them - and the international press took no notice and just ran with the wild claims.
The Energocom news has an important political dimension to it. The company essentially only existed on paper in January 2022 before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since then the government has used it to purchase and stockpile energy supplies to hedge against higher market prices in winter and potential Russian gas cutoffs. Essentially, the company was granted various monopoly-like powers in order to shelter Moldovan consumers against price swings in the energy markets and create a national strategic reserve. This was undoubtedly needed early in the war and still serves an important function today. It also represents an important risk and heightening of the stakes in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Traditionally corrupt political parties (Plahotniuc’s Democrats, Dodon’s Socialists, etc) have utilized state companies as their personal piggy banks while they are in power. But no state company has ever been this big or well capitalized. Now the company has a reputation as being professionally run by outside private sector management brought in since 2022. But for corrupt interests looking towards the parliamentary elections Energocom may be the biggest prize of all.