Weekly Roundup: Moldova's Fight for the Future

October 10, 2024

Oct 10, 2024

Welcome back to Moldova Matters! After a short trip to the US I’m back in Moldova and will be focusing on covering election related news through October 20th. Given just how much news is breaking each day we’re going to keep our focus on the elections the the next 10 days and return after the 20th to revisit some other stories that are getting overshadowed as Moldova plans for what may be the country’s most consequential election since independence.

Author’s Note: Even by Moldova Matters standards this is a *long* article. The fact is there is a huge amount of news this week and it’s all very important. If you get tired half way through, take a break, make some coffee and please do read to the end.

New Polls and Election Updates

A new poll from Watchdog shows President Sandu with a strong lead in the upcoming presidential elections. The poll shows the top 3 candidates to be Maia Sandu (36.1%), Alexandr Stoianoglo (10.1%) and Renato Usatii (7.5%).

You can read the full results of the poll in English at this link.

This poll still shows a high number of undecided voters (21.9%) with 10 days to go before the election. As always, these poll numbers do not account for voters in the diaspora.

A Massive and Sustained Disinformation Campaign

Anyone reading the news in Moldova right now would be left with an impression of an information space that exists in a state of chaos. A steady drumbeat of disinformation narratives and whack-a-mole attempts at debunking them is being intertwined with the standard hype, overpromising and hyperbole that accompanies any election campaign in any country. Newsmaker and ZdG both produced excellent articles this week tracking some of the top narratives being pushed by Russian propaganda and Shor-linked groups, primarily attacking the idea of EU membership. Both articles are worth reading in full, but we’ll dive into a few specific examples here of both narratives, debunking and also disruptive actions and information operations that are characterizing this campaign.

Deepfake Videos

Last week an anonymous Telegram channel began distributing a video of Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba purporting to show him at a party in a sauna with various naked women and drugs. The video had various issues, including the fact that the man with Minister Alaiba’s face was actually taller than Alaiba is in reality. Additionally, all of the drink and cigarette brands shown in the video are products not available in Moldova.

Prime Minster Recean called out the video as a fake and government spokesmen warned people about trusting videos from unknown sources. Minister Alaiba filed a complaint with the police and stated that and put out a statement highlighting Russia’s attempts to distract from the election campaign saying: “Russia invests in propaganda, not in the economy. Russia spreads lies here instead of creating jobs and providing high salaries.”

The Sale of Agricultural Land

Various candidates, anonymous channels and Kremlin linked figures have been spreading the narrative that when Moldova joins the EU the country will be forced to allow foreigners to buy agricultural land.2 This was partly fueled by comments made by the Head of the EU Delegation to Moldova Janis Mažeiks, who responded to a question on this rather hot-button topic with a technocratic answer about freedom of capital and the EU negotiation process. Part of the issue in his statements was due to a mistake in the simultaneous translation of the interview. Whatever the case, a major disinformation campaign was developed on this topic.

Prime Minister Recean and various cabinet officials have all called this narrative untrue and noted that Moldova will negotiate with the EU on the accession process in terms of national interest. Expert Andrei Curăraru of Watchdog called this whole process an "Unnecessary panic started by Kremlin agents." He explained that many countries entering the EU have similar provisions and account for them within the negotiating process. Romania negotiated a 7 year ban on the sale of land to foreigners after joining the EU and Poland negotiated a 14 year ban. Both countries now allow EU citizens to buy land provided they have resided in Romania or Poland respectively for at least 5 years. Latvia has a similar requirement but also requires agricultural land owners to pass a Latvian language test.

So while the narrative is false, it is nuanced, which gives an advantage to simple disinformation narratives pushing against complex technical questions of EU membership.

A Strange Scandal Around a Mural

Last week the Neorama advertising company began to paint over a brand new 8 story tall mural dedicated to Moldova’s participation in the 2024 Olympic games. Police stopped the painting, which they are now investigating as vandalism, but the company has insisted that they own the rights to advertise on the building and that the mural is there illegally.

Initially, the whole story appeared to just be a case of greed and senseless destruction but the story took a strange turn when Neorama then placed a large banner over the mural advocating for Moldova joining the EU and voting yes in there referendum. The owner of Neorama, Sandu Osadcenco, justified this action on facebook saying that the Olympics are over and that he has every right to cover / destroy the mural in support of Moldova’s future in the EU. Mr. Osadcenco’s facebook page appears to support President Sandu and oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also promotes lots of posts and messages about crime, violence and societal degradation in the EU. This is itself a major disinformation narrative pushed via Russian media and social media channels that is being promoted in Moldova.

PAS MP Radu Marian called the situation a provocation saying:

“Some guys from an advertising company decided to make some money (I suspect they got the money from Shor) and installed a banner of the European Union on top with the obvious goal of denigrating European integration. Immediately after that, comments from bloggers Shor and Dodon appeared in Telegram, absurdly accusing the government and PAS. The fugitives are desperate and are mistaken if they think such tricks will work.”

The State Chancellery as well as City Hall have made clear that there was no permission to deface the mural or to put up a banner supporting a position in the referendum or to use national symbols in an advertisement.

So here’s a complex situation. If Radu Marian’s analysis is correct3 then the mural was defaced in order to provoke public outcry. Once that had happened, a pro-EU banner was placed over it in order to redirect this anger at the EU. The narrative neatly fit into common disinformation about joining the EU meaning the erasure of Moldovan culture and sovereignty by literally erasing a new Moldovan cultural artwork.

What is so insidious is that these are just examples of the kinds of manipulations taking place - many, many more such examples are happening all around the country during this election campaign.

Shor and Direct Kremlin Interference

In addition to the massive disinformation and propaganda effort that is ongoing, Kremlin linked groups, largely affiliated with Ilan Shor, have continued to use illicit campaign spending, voter bribery and use of “activists” and agents on the ground to influence the election outcome.

One such effort is the continued efforts by officials of the Moldovan Orthodox Church to support Shor-linked candidates and oppose EU integration. On October 6th around 150 people participated in a “March of Peace” where they carried white flags4, icons and crosses in a march through Chisinau. Three Bishops led the march including Bishop Marchel of Balti and Fălești, Bishop Anatolie of Cahul and Comrat and Bishop Nicolae Roșca of Ceadîr-Lunga. At the conclusion of the march a church service was held and then various people spoke in support of Shor-linked candidates Vasilie Tarlev and Victoria Furtuna. Vladimir Voronin of the Communist Party also spoke at the event.

Following the event police detained a dual Ukrainian-Russian citizen named Dmitri Chistilin who organized the march. Deschide.md reports that Chistilin is one of the main organizers of “pilgrimage” trips by priests to Moscow. He is a close personal friend of Bishop Marchel and an advisor to presidential candidate Victoria Furtuna. Deschide reports that Chistilin is run by 2 agents of the FSB and has been working since 2016 to promote anti-Ukrainian narratives including holding round tables and seminars across Europe supporting Russia's war. Moldovan police deported Chistilin from the country taking him to the border and the welcoming arms of Ukraine’s SBU who arrested him for treason. He faces life imprisonment in Ukraine.

This is just one of dozens of stories of the cat and mouse game between the police and Shor agents this week. Here’s a roundup of some other important stories:

Ilan Shor continues to promote his new Telegram bot channel called “STOP UE. [STOP EU].” Users are promised 500 lei for signing up to the channel and an additional 50 lei bonus for all other users they recruit. They are then offered additional money to complete tasks - such as 150 lei per facebook post attacking Maia Sandu or the EU. Users are tasked with various gamified disinformation actions including creating anti-Sandu memes and they are (allegedly) awarded raffle prizes for the top results including a car and iPhones. Journalists have tracked similar, much smaller, Telegram channels targeting specific voting precincts and regions of the country. Users who try and sign up for the channels must provide a phone number and a scan of both sides of their national ID card. Tellingly, when registering for the channel users must accept a user agreement that includes the language: “comments and other user entries must not conflict with the requirements of Russian legislation.” Valeriu Pasha, director of Watchdog MD says that this effort is run out of a call center in Russia and that the ultimate purpose is the collection of phone numbers and personal identification information in order to drive on the ground voter bribery efforts.
Police have detained 13 people in cases related to vandalism against state institutions including throwing paint on government buildings. Chief of the National Police Viorel Cernăuţanu stated that these sabotage groups have larger goals than vandalism. He stated:

“We are finding out the intentions of these people, and it is not only about destabilizing the situation in the country or mass riots. They are pursuing more ambitious goals, including seizing state institutions. We understand that when they pay €5,000 for hooliganism with paint, this is also a payment for other actions, and there are other payments,"

SIS has ordered the blocking of Russian tech giant Yandex.ru’s website. Most likely this was designed to target the “Zen” media service managed by the Kremlin controlled company. The blocking also caused disruptions to Yandex Music, the company’s video streaming service and temporary problems with the Yandex taxi service in Moldova.
Police are intercepting Shor financial curriers and seizing illicit funds all around the country.
- Officers of the National Anti-Corruption Center (CNA) arrested 4 people in Gagauzia for illicit campaign finance and money laundering. They are associated with Shor’s efforts at bringing money into Moldova via Russian Promsvyazbank and MiR payment cards which are used to pay “activists” and bribe voters. Following the arrests the CNA published a recording of the Shor agents where one man says “our task is to prevent Maia Sandu from winning the presidential election in the first round.” In the recording, a woman can be heard asking god to “give Putin strength so that he takes Odessa and us.”
- Police are warning parents that a “criminal group associated with Ilan Shor" is recruiting teenagers and paying them to campaign under the guise of surveys. Police note that illegal campaigning and voter bribery now carry serious penalties and call on parents to protect their children from getting caught up in schemes.
- CNA officers seized 1 million lei in a village near Orhei that they allege was being used to bribe voters, organize concerts and election events, pay for fuel and drivers and pay Shor supporters and organizers. The money was found in various currencies including dollars, euros and lei.
- Police in Chisinau stopped a man with 13 boxes of leaflets with Ilan Shor’s picture and campaign messages. He was transporting 36,200 euros in 724 50 euro notes.
- CNA officers stopped a different car a day later that was also transporting illegal election materials and 36,000 euros in cash. They say that the money was meant to pay “activists” and Shor party supporters.
- Police confiscated a van load of Communist party election materials following a tip about illegal printing valued at over 250,000 lei.5 The Communists have protested this seizure and called for protests outside the police station in Chisinau.
- Police confiscated 72 campaign banners promoting Victoria Furtuna from a driver who had no documents confirming the origin of the materials.6 The man transporting and installing these banners is not a party employee but an employee of Shor’s GagauziyaLand theme park. Furtuna has called this seizure illegal and claims that all the documents for the banners was in order.
Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Veronica Dragalin has publicly appealed to citizens not to be taken in by Shor’s schemes. In her appeal she urges people who have sent ID information or accepted Russian bank cards to turn themselves in and cooperate to avoid punishment. She stated:

"We are addressing everyone who provided their personal data to open bank accounts in Russia. These people are involved in the scheme. We know who they are and what amounts of money are being transferred to this bank's accounts in Russia. To be clear: people who are involved in this are not only facing a fine of over 37,000 lei, but also the confiscation of all funds transferred to a foreign account. … We have the right to seize their property in Moldova: cars, land, houses. … You are facing a fine, confiscation [of property], or even imprisonment,"

CNA officials say that they have already received 100 referrals from the police regarding voters accepting bribes.

Shor supporters find that their “gifts” might actually be loans. Multiple Shor supporters who received Russian Promsvyazbank cards have started receiving messages via the banking app saying that their credit limit is exhausted and that their loans are now due with penalties accruing daily. One woman from Northern Moldova commented on the situation to the press saying:

"We received a message that we have debts to pay. It's not okay what's going on. They promised us one thing, but we see something completely different. I fell into the trap. We didn't expect something like this ,"

Hundreds of Shor supporters shared similar stories and stated that Pobeda party representatives were unresponsive to their calls for help and clarification. Ilan Shor has posted on his Telegram denying that he tricked these people into taking out loans and saying that the whole thing is a scam created by Maia Sandu.7 National Police Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu once again stressed to people that banks do not give money away for free and that people need to be on the look out for scams. Police claim that they are tracking 130,000 citizens who have received money via Russian bank cards. Minister of Internal Affairs Adrian Efros says that they have received 5 official complaints about “fraudulent” debt via these bank cards and police are investigating. They note that the people who have come forward are sharing with police the networks distributing the cards and their contacts with Pobeda.8

Telegram Blocks the Shor Network

On October 10th Telegram blocked a large number of channels affiliated with Ilan Shor including those of Eugenia Gutsul, Ilan Shor, Marina Tauber, Vasile Bolea and other top Shor party leaders. They also blocked Shor’s “Eurasia” group based in Russia as well as other Shor affiliated channels.

When users attempted to access these pages they got the message "This channel is unavailable because it violated local legislation." It is worth noting that Telegram has suddenly begun complying with government orders around the world following Pavel Durov’s arrest in France this summer.

The EU is Not Rolling Over in this Geopolitical Election

In response to Russia’s unprecedented efforts to disrupt the election, derail Moldovan democracy and keep the nation in its sphere of influence, the EU is itself taking unprecedented steps. This week the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning "Russia's intensifying hostile actions, interference and hybrid operations in the run-up to the presidential elections and constitutional referendum in Moldova."

The resolution called for member states to provide "all the necessary assistance" to Moldova in the face of Russian propaganda, information warfare, cyber attacks and other hybrid threats. It also called for additional sanctions against Ilan Shor and Vladimir Plahotniuc.

These statements proved to be more than just words.

Following the resolution the EU added 5 additional people affiliated with Ilan Shor to their sanctions list. They were Bashkan Evghenia Guțul, Iuri Cuznețov (head of external relations for Gagauzia), Nelli Parutenco (founder and director of Shor’s “Eurasia” group - sanctioned for financing propaganda and influence operations), Ilia Uzun (deputy president of the Executive Committee of Gagauzia - sanctioned for meetings with Shor in Israel, organizing electoral work for Gutsul and organizing Shor protests) and Mihail Vlah (Gutsul’s press advisor - sanctioned for organizing violent protests).

On October 10th European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Chisinau and announced the largest financial assistance package to Moldova in history. In a press conference with President Sandu the Commission President announced 1.8 billion euros in support to Moldova over the next 3 years. She stated:

"As President of the European Commission, I believe that Moldova's place is in the European Union. In 2022, you were granted candidate status for EU membership and have made significant progress. … I know that you have an ambitious economic plan, and the European Union will support it. We believe that we can help you double the size of your economy in the next ten years. This means more jobs and a better quality of life for Moldovans. … We will invest €1.8 billion in your economy over the next three years," …
"We will renovate schools, build two new hospitals in Balti and Cahul. We will invest in expanding your country's connections with its neighbors, for example, in the Chisinau-Iasi-Odessa road, we will build bridges over the Prut River, we will invest in your energy sector with power lines that will connect you to the European network. In addition, we will promote the spread of broadband Internet throughout the country. We will help your business enter the single market. For example, you will have access to a single payment space. This will make money transfers safer, faster and with minimal fees, which is beneficial for business. At the same time, we will support your reforms - those that you plan to modernize the economy, improve the business environment and prepare the energy sector for the green transition,"

*Ursula von der Leyen and Maia Sandu. Photo source Presidential Administration*

President Sandu called this an reaffirmation of Europe’s support for Moldova. She stressed the importance of investment and economic development saying:

"For the standard of living to grow faster, Moldova needs a strong economic impulse and significant investments. The Economic Growth Plan - a real Marshall Plan for Moldova - offers exactly this impetus and brings us closer to our goal of preparing the country for the accession to the European Union by 2030"

10 Days to Go

In 10 days time Moldova will vote in what may be the most consequential election in the young nation’s history. The election will hinge on the question of Moldova’s future - as a European nation or a country unable to break free of Russia’s so called sphere of influence. This week the European Union has indicated that it understands the stakes and can see the unprecedented Russian efforts to sway the outcome of this election.

The geopolitical stakes are now quite clear and major players are starting to show their cards. If well reasoned arguments did not already make the case, massive Russian investments in lies and disinformation, and massive European investments in infrastructure and interconnectivity, send a pretty strong signal - Moldova does Matter.

We’ll follow the twists and turns of the next 10 days at Moldova Matters with regular updates following a more fluid publishing schedule than normal. We’ll do our best to keep you up to date and informed.

Next week I will plan on releasing a subscriber only Q&A podcast9 in the lead-up to the election. Send in your questions by replying to this email and I’ll try and answer as many as I can.

Note: reporting other citizenships is voluntary and has no legal penalties for not reporting.

Moldovan law considers agricultural land a critical national resource and restricts non-citizens from being able to own land. Non-citizens who come to possess land through inheritance or court order must sell it within one year. This does not apply to houses, commercial property or anything other than land zoned for agricultural use.

Personally, I think it is.

It is safe to assume they are not advocating that Russia wave the white flag in the war. Efforts like this pretty clearly equate “peace” with Ukrainian surrender.

The Communist Party is officially registered to participate in the referendum supporting a “No” vote. This means that unlike Shor’s political groups that Communists have every right to print election materials and distribute them as part of the campaign. In this case, “illegal printing” refers to the fact that these materials were printed underground using funds that were not raised or officially spent by the party (cash). Cash spending is done by parties to evade campaign finance and reporting laws.

Campaign materials require receipts confirming that they were purchased with official party funds. In many cases these materials also require transit documents owing to Moldova’s paperwork heavy inventory management laws that require end to end documentation of goods owned by legal entities.

Apparently Maia Sandu now controls Russian state banks.

What is going on here? Great question and honestly I wish I knew. If Shor was / is intentionally luring people into debt traps he cannot possibly have intended it to come out before the election. Even after the election it makes little sense as it spoils any hopes to use the same networks for the parliamentary elections in 2025. The fact that people who are guilty of election crimes by taking bribes are turning themselves in because they are angry about the fraud is pretty astounding to say the least. Either this was some kind of major error on the part of Shor, or some kind of sophisticated information operation on the part of someone (the Moldovan authorities?). We’ll keep an eye on this story and see how it develops.

For those who prefer to read there will be a transcript as well

Moldova Matters