Weekly Roundup
February 23, 2023
Last week, the news came at such a fast pace we wrote 5 “Quick Hit” articles keeping up with events as the Gavrilita Government Resigned, Ukraine announced new security threats against Moldova, and a new government was formed. In case you missed any of these we strongly recommend catching up as these events will be key shapers of Moldovan politics and security in the weeks and months to come.
Quick Hit: Will Gavrilita Resign? February 10th
Quick Hit: Moldovan Government Resigns February 10th
Quick Hit: Russian plans "coup d'etat" in Moldova - February 13th
Quick Hit: Moldova Has a New Government - February 16h
Today, we continue with a Weekly Roundup. This week alone has been chalk-full of news and updates. Additionally, we will try and catch up on other stories that flew under the radar of last week’s news blitz.
International Affairs
By far the biggest regional and international news of the week was President Joe Biden’s surprise trip to Kyiv. President Biden met with President Zelensky assuring him of ongoing US support for the defense of Ukraine as well as visiting various sites around Kyiv even as active air raid sirens were sounding.
Following his trip to Kyiv, President Biden traveled to Warsaw Poland where he gave a speech meant to rally allies and signal clear support of a united west for Ukraine as well as Moldova.
This is also the desire of the Moldovan people - the desire of the citizens of Moldova to live in freedom, when they obtained their independence and went on the path of the European Union. President Sandu is here today. I am very proud to be with you and the free people of the Republic of Moldova"
Also speaking in Warsaw, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis made his strongest yet statement of support for Moldova stressing his willingness, in light of the war, to support Moldova “in any scenario.”
"Romania is not only ready, it is willing to support Moldova in anything - I repeat - in any scenario. What this concrete support will look like obviously depends on the evolution of the geopolitical situation. At this moment, you know very well that we support them with electricity, gas, and so on, we help them reform their institutions, but we are willing and I personally am willing to go much further, if the situation requires it"
President Sandu also had meetings with Polish President Duda on the sidelines in Poland and is planning a trip to Romania to meet further with President Iohannis this week.
Euronest Meets in Chisinau
21 Members of the European Parliament met with parlimentarians from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan at the 10th Euronest assembly, held in Chisinau for the first time. The group adopted resolutions calling for the beginning of accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova by the end of 2023; for a hard timeline for full membership by the end of the decade; and for gradual integration into the single market at a faster pace in order that citizens of the countries feel the benefits of EU membership even as the details are worked out.
The resolution is not binding but is a strong showing of support for Ukraine and Moldova’s EU path.
Updates from the Kremlin
At the same time as President Biden was visiting Kyiv and Warsaw, President Putin gave his annual “State of the Union” speech in Moscow. There were few new things in the speech which could best be summed up as “why did the west make me invade Ukraine?!” Putin promised to win the conflict militarily and suspended Russia’s participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the United States.
Also in the speech, Putin announced the cancelation of a 2012 presidential decree on Russian foreign policy. Much ink has been spilled about the fact that this decree stated that Russia would work towards a solution of the Transnistria conflict by respecting the "sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of Moldova."
Valeriu Pasha of Watchdog.md and other experts noted that the alarm this has caused in the headlines of some publications is totally without merit. The 2012 presidential decree on Russian foreign policy was global in scope. It envisioned Russia moving closer in cooperation with the EU and US. It outlined their plans for participation in UN agencies and stressed respecting the territorial integrity of all states. Valeriu Pasha notes that Moldova is mentioned in less than 1 full sentence of a document that essentially outlined Russia’s global policy. Romanian President Iohannis also stressed that canceling the decree tells us very little and we will have to wait to see what new documents are presented outlining Russia’s policies. Essentially, this doesn’t mean that Russia is about to recognize Transnistria, and it doesn’t mean they won’t. We’ll have to wait and see. What we do know is that this was not a targeted action against Moldova specifically.
Additionally, last week the Kremlin announced sanctions against 77 Americans who are no longer welcome in the Russian Federation. Amidst this list of US governors, generals, retired officials, children of senior government officials and more are 4 names specifically included as people helping Moldova on a European path and, therefore, out of Russia’s orbit. They are:
Karen M. Bonaby - Advisor to the Ministry of Defense of Moldova;
Eva Busza - Regional Director of the International Republican Institute [edit: as pointed out by a great reader the Russian’s messed this one up too. Eva Busza is the regional director of NDI and has no IRI affiliation. The Kremlin seems amazingly sloppy with sanctions Feb 23 / 11:11 pm];
Hanna Gardi - head of the Moldovan branch of the NGO "Peace Corps" [listed incorrectly, Mrs. Gardi is the Director of Programming and Training not the Country Director];
Scott Hocklander - Head of the US Agency for International Development in Moldova;
Moldova Matters would like to personally congratulate each of the above persons - apparently they are doing something right.
Security Threats - Could Russia Storm the Chisinau Airport?
Last week we wrote about President Sandu’s confirmation of information provided by Ukrainian intelligence of Russian plans to destabilize Moldova, possibly via a coup masquerading as protests. President Zelensky, in an interview with a German news outlet, added some details suggesting the the Kremlin’s goal is to take power in Moldova and use the country and Transnistria as a second front against Ukraine. He noted that Russia has no borders with Moldova now saying:
“Therefore, they must use this airport and their Transnistrian military. Maia Sandu never asked for my help, but thanked for the information. She knows our situation very well. Ukraine will always be ready to help Moldova,”
These statements have cause alarm both in Moldova and in reporting in the international press. On social media people have speculated about an air landing such as the Battle of Hostomel Airport last year during the broader battle for Kyiv. At face value, this is an extremely dubious proposition. Russian attack helicopters and aircraft would need to pass over Ukrainian airspace and air defense to attempt to land a small force in Moldova with zero hope of a linkup with ground troops. This landing force would be quite small even compared to Moldova’s small army and police units and would have to resupply via an air bridge across Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, Ukraine would certainly intervene in Transnistria where the small number of Russian troops would have little chance against the better equipped and battle hardened Ukrainian army. If Russia does have such a plan, and there are indications that this is not simply made up by Ukraine (more below), it would not be a very smart plan.
Responding to this new information, Moldovan Prime Minister Recean confirmed that such a threat does exist saying:
“There are several scenarios of destabilization. They include several details, including those that you mentioned when quoting the words of President Zelensky,”
He further stressed Moldova’s position as unchanging and focused on a peaceful solution to the Transnistria issue:
“I emphasize once again: our goal is to ensure peace and stability in the country, including the Transnistrian region. Moldova stands for a peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, and we must coordinate our goals in order to achieve peace and security,”
Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu added more details to Moldova’s planning for this scenario saying:
“These days there is talk that the Chisinau airport could be a potential target for an attack. I can say that this was taken into account a year ago, and a year ago all our institutions were ready for risks, including with the Chisinau airport,”
“If you permit, I will not go into the details of a technical or military order, but in practice the operation of the airport depends on the ability of the runway to receive aircraft. That is, through the destruction of the runway or blocking it, it is possible ... but again, I don’t want to go into details, because there are dozens of measures that were provided and prepared by our institutions, the Ministry of Defense and the SIS,”
“I can say that the institutions of our country have always been ready to ensure that the airport does not fall into the hands of enemy states.”
In summary, the threat to the airport is something being treated seriously by the Moldovan authorities, but not necessarily as something new. Any discussion of whether or not Putin would try such a thing gets bogged down in speculation on his rationality… which inevitably leads to people saying things like “it would be dumb, but they’ve done dumb stuff before.”
Shor Protests Sunday February 19th
The Shor Party held protests last Sunday which were announced immediately after President Sandu spoke of a potential coup masquerading as a protest. On Saturday, Anti-Corruption prosecutors again raided Shor Party offices detaining 8 individuals with large sums of cash and charging them with accepting political financing from an organized criminal group. This money was intended to pay protestors. Still, some protestors who did show up discussed with some journalists what they were paid. Additionally 6 people were detained at the protest for acting suspiciously and one was found to have a knife. In total 42 fines were issued for violations of public order, many of them for illegal transportation of people to protests in busses.
Police say that around 3600 people came to the protest. The Shor party claimed 40,000. Protestors called for the downfall of the government and early elections.
Unfortunately, many western outlets that recently focused on Moldova given the last week’s news, but lacking any context about the country, published articles taking the protests at face value. The BBC was particularly bad at this explaining that a large protest of people in the capital wanted Moldova to join Russia. To their credit, the story was later corrected.
Moldova isn’t used to this level of attention and some strange feedback loops have been occurring where uninformed and sensational international press makes people nervous in Moldova. Outlets such as the BBC can be forgiven for not know everything about Moldovan politics. They cannot be forgiven for reporting on a protest by the Shor Party without ever noting that the oligarch is wanted for stealing a billion dollars and is using that money to pay protestors in support of Russia.
Other Security News
Here we’ll take a brief roundup of other security related news from the last week:
Discussing the government’s policy towards Transnistria, Prime Minister Recean said the following:
“We must achieve one fundamental thing - demilitarization. Everything else follows after that, and the economic and social integration of our citizens who are there is very important. But in the first place is demilitarization,”
It is important to note that this is not any deviation from longstanding Moldovan policy. The withdraw of Russian forces was agreed under the auspices of the OSCE in 1999 including by the Russian government. Russia has withdrawn some forces in the intervening years but not completely.
Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy stated that the EU is considering sending a mission to Moldova under the auspices of the EU Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). He noted the Moldovan government’s stated desire to better integrate with EU Common Security and Defense Policy and noted the 40 million euros given by the EU in the last year to strengthen Moldovan security.
The Romanian Foreign Minister announced that the country will propose that EU introduce separate sanctions against Russia for attempts to destabilize Moldova. No details on what is left to sanction were given.
Moldova’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicu Popescu, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, called on the EU to impose sanctions against Moldova’s fugitive oligarchs. The US has imposed sanctions along with a few European countries but the block as a whole as not taken action.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that they believe Ukraine is preparing an armed attack on Transnistria saying:
"according to available information, the Kiev regime is preparing an armed provocation against the Transnistrian region, and as a pretext for the invasion, it is intended to stage an alleged attack by Russian troops."
Moldovan authorities urged calm, did not confirm any Russian claims and asked that people follow only trustworthy news sources and avoid disinformation.
Moldova’s Ministry of Internal Affairs has published an interactive map of available bomb shelters in the country. The map is meant to outline potential shelters as a temporary solution noting that the nation’s Soviet-era shelters are all gone. Shelters range from basements of schools to the 74 km of tunnels as deep as 80 meters underground at the Cricova winery.
Moldova will close its airspace on June 1st and 2nd during the meeting of the European Political Community in Chisinau. Moldova is expecting up to 48 heads of state in the capital and security is expected to be tight.
British Intelligence has stated the the balloons seen over Ukraine and northern Moldova in the last week are suspected to be of Russian origin. The balloons appear to carry crude deflector devices designed to show up on radar and cause Ukrainian forces to waste precious missiles on fake targets.
Moldovan Politics
While international affairs, war and geopolitics have dominated the headlines, Moldova’s new government has also been at work on the domestic front. Here is a short roundup of the key headlines of the week:
PAS has announced that the parliament will only meet in a plenary (full parliament) session every 2 weeks. Previously parliament met weekly, or even twice a week in the past. Explaining the change the party explained that this will give more time for parliamentary committees and ministries to work without simply meeting to meet.
The Constitutional Court rejected a bill passed last year removing immunity from prosecution from members of parliament. The rejection was based on a number of technicalities that the court has asked parliament to fix in order to be aligned with the European Court of Human Rights rulings. This bill technically required amending the constitution but was possible because all parties, including the Socialists and Shor parties supported it.
The Socialist Party plans to challenge the appointment of Prime Minister Recean in the constitutional court. They say that the mandatory “consultations with all parties” were rushed and not serious. The fact that they boycotted the consultations thereby speeding them up is unlikely to help their case.
Prime Minister Recean made his first trip to the regions as PM to Fălești. Returning from the trip he made the following statement to the cabinet of ministers:
"Yesterday I visited Fălești. I talked with entrepreneurs, especially those in the agricultural field, and I received several requests. One of the most pressing problems was the investments in agriculture, in the industrialization of agriculture. (…)
I made some unannounced visits yesterday to some decentralized institutions and I want to tell you that we have a lot of work to do there. I understand that there is the constraint that there is not enough money to allocate for the infrastructure of those institutions, that there is not enough money to have working tools. I won't name names this time, but there is also an attitude problem. Dear colleagues, we work vertically, down to the last civil servant, let's explain very clearly that they are there to serve the citizens or the business environment. What we saw yesterday leaves much to be desired. This time I will not give names, with the next unexpected visits we will have to be more incisive. I encourage each of you to do the same, because we have the task of making this Government bring services as close as possible to citizens and the business environment",
The Prime Minister announced that he plans such trips weekly and without warning. He stressed that it is not his intention to be an “inspector” of state institutions but to learn on the ground where the problems exist.
Economic Updates
Here is a brief look at the week’s important economic stories:
The National Bank announced plans to reduce the base rate by 3% from 20% to 17%. They are forecasting an annual rate of inflation of 13.7% this year and a return to 5.5% in Q2 2024. Overall, inflation is falling faster than expected but remains very high at 27.3% in January.
Moldova plans to issue special green license plates for electric cars.
The Big Mac Index was released for the year showing that the Moldovan lei is overvalued against the dollar by 40.6% and the true exchange rate should be around 12 lei / 1 USD (the current exchange rate is 18.8 lei / USD). Hamburgers aside, there is some question about the currency exchange. The National Bank has taken various measures to assure exchange stability during high inflation though that does imply that the purchasing power of the lei in USD is actually gaining over time while most of the world falls against the dollar. Perhaps the Big Mac has some interesting information for us after all…
Wow! You made it!! That was a long roundup and the news just keeps on coming. It takes a lot of work to compile and analyze all that is going on in Moldova - if you aren’t already, consider becoming a paid subscriber! It really helps support the work we do at Moldova Matters.