Quick Hit: Moldovan Government Resigns

President Sandu Nominates Dorin Recean for new Prime Minister

Today was a very busy news day in Moldova. This morning we began with a Quick Hit article addressing the sudden fever pitch of rumors that Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita and her government would resign. These rumors proved to be true with the Prime Minister holding a press conference at 1 pm where she discussed the accomplishments of her government and announced her resignation. In her speech she also alluded to some of the possible reasons for the change which we will discuss more in the Analysis section below (excerpts from Agora.md).

"I have convinced myself that we are welcomed in the EU with open arms. If the Government had the same openness at home, we would have been able to move forward faster. After a year and a half of activity, the time has come to announce my resignation. The team I worked with at the Government was a team with expertise in the field of economic development. Now the priority is security. During this time we governed in a regime of continuous crisis. We would ensure that every family has access to compensation, we managed to make the first purchases of gas from alternative sources. We maintained stability, calm and peace in the Republic of Moldova. We knew how to keep calm in the Transnistrian region. We conducted dialogue with external partners, managed the refugee crisis. Despite these challenges, we implemented the reform plan assumed during the electoral period. Roads and bridges were put into operation this year. We have taken decisive steps in the field of energy independence. Most importantly - we managed to get the status of a candidate country in the EU"

Following Prime Minister Gavrilita’s statement, President Sandu posted the following on her facebook page:

"I took note of the resignation of Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita. Thank you so much for your enormous sacrifice and efforts to lead the country in a time of so many crises. In spite of unprecedented challenges, the country was governed responsibly, with a lot of attention and dedicated work. We have stability, peace and development - where others wanted war and bankruptcy.

Thank you so much, Natalia!

Following the legal procedures, following the resignation of the Prime Minister, I will have consultations with the parliamentary fractions and, afterwards, I will nominate a candidate for the post of Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova."

Just like that, Prime Minister Gavrilita has resigned after running the country through multifold crises since she took office August 6, 2021.

What Happens Next?

Following the resignation of the Prime Minister, the President must hold consultations with all the political parties in Parliament in order to nominate a new candidate for Prime Minister. Practically speaking, in the situation where PAS has a majority of seats in parliament this is a formality as the party representing the parliamentary majority will put forward a candidate to form a new government. Normally, this process would still take some time as the President heard from all factions. In reality, the entire process was finished in one afternoon. The Block of Communists and Socialists helped speed things along by announcing that they would boycott the consultations entirely. Apparently, the only party to show up for consultations was the Shor Party, represented by Marina Tauber, recently released from house arrest (again). Tauber put forward fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor’s name for Prime Minister and then condemned then entire exercise as a “sham” when President Sandu did not commit to considering his candidacy.

Following this expedited process, President Sandu announced the conclusion of consultations and the nomination of Dorin Recean for the position of Prime Minister. She noted the support of the PAS faction for his candidacy. (quote selection from ZdG)

"(...) In order to move forward towards our fundamental objective of European integration and the consolidation of democracy, to strengthen the rule of law, to increase the standard of living in the Republic of Moldova, we have decided that it is necessary to accelerate and strengthen our efforts by appointing a new Government. It is a difficult time for everyone, and our task is not only to endure. We must develop, move forward. The country's economy and security need a new life.

The new Government will have to increase the country's security level and keep Moldova in the world of free countries. War and its horrors are still in our neighbors' homes. Citizens' concerns are still high, and the Government must respond to these concerns (...). The new Government has the obligation to increase the speed of cleaning the country of corruption and injustice (...). We had consultations with the parliamentary factions. Following the discussions, I signed the decree by which I designated Dorin Recean as a candidate for the position of prime minister. During the consultations with the PAS fraction, the PAS team declared its support for Mr. Dorin Recean (…),

According to Moldova’s legislation, following his nomination by the President Mr. Recean will have 15 days to propose a new cabinet of ministers and government program for presentation to parliament. Parliament will then have the opportunity to vote confidence in the new prime minister, program and cabinet. Should they do so a new government is formed.

In the meantime, the resignation of the Prime Minister results in the resignation of all government ministers. They will stay in post until a new government is voted in, but only with powers to fulfill administrative capacities. The lame-duck cabinet will not be able to propose legislation, approve regulations or otherwise conduct proactive actions of governance.

Who is Dorin Recean?

photo source - facebook

Mr. Recean is the current Defense and National Security Advisor to President Sandu, and previously served as Minister of Internal Affairs under the Filat and Leanca governments 2012 - 2015. We will do a deeper dive into his history and proposed program of governance in the coming weeks. Upon his nomination, Mr. Recean made a statement outlining his three track plan for governance (quotes from ZdG):

"I will proceed immediately to the formation of the government assembly and the actions that are necessary for the implementation of the government program. Dear citizens, we will proceed immediately to actions on three dimensions, the most important.

The first is order and discipline in institutions . Institutions must serve the citizens, the business environment. Yes, there is resistance, but we will overcome it. The second dimension of rapid intervention is to have a new life for the economy . This means providing more accessible resources, particularly for business investment, in the small and medium-sized enterprise sector. This is the way to have jobs, to have higher wages and to create well-being for each of us". Three – peace and stability. We must realize that, since the Second World War, we are at the highest risk of provocations. Therefore, we need to strengthen the security sector in such a way that everyone feels safe.

The dominance of the government program is European integration. We need to speed up the process of harmonizing the legislation, we need to implement all the conditionalities, but carefully, not because we need to tick [boxes], but because this is the way to ensure welfare in the country",

The coming weeks will likely be filled with activity and speculation as the candidate for prime minister seeks to fill out a cabinet of ministers - either by keeping past ministers or finding replacements.

In this morning’s Quick Hit article, we at Moldova Matters identified the key risk of changing governments in the possibility of a prolonged, messy transition. The lightening speed and near perfect choreography of today’s events implies that isn’t going to be a problem. We’ll closely follow this story to see how quickly and decisively a new government is formed and presented to parliament.

Analysis - What just Happened?!

With the speed of today’s news people have lots of questions, here we’ll try and draw on the best available information to analyze what happened and why. But first it is critical to highlight what *did not* happen. This is best summarized by a terribly misinformed headline by the Wall Street Journal:

Moldova’s Pro-Western Government Collapses as Fallout From Ukraine War Worsens

It is critical to note right away that Prime Minister Gavrilita’s government did not “collapse.” In a parliamentary system “collapse” occurs when the prime minister and government loses the confidence of a majority of members of parliament and is either voted out in a vote of no confidence, or forced to resign rather than face one. This did not happen and there is no indication that parliament was in any way preparing to force the resignation of the Gavrilita government.

Furthermore, Moldova did not lose a “Pro-Western” government due to pressures from the war in Ukraine. The PAS Party maintains full control with majorities in Parliament and President Sandu in the presidency. Just as the British Government has seen 3 prime ministers and governments in the last 12 months without an election or a loss of power for the conservative party, Moldova’s pro-EU PAS party retains power and has internally chosen to shake up the country’s leadership.

But who made this choice? and why now?

In trying to answer this question we need to go back to an old Explainer article we wrote in March 2021 titled “How does Moldova’s Government Work?” In it, we examine a strange quirk of Moldova’s constitutional system whereby the President is elected and has a strong mandate from the public… but few powers. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is often drawn from outside the pool of elected officials and is a “technocrat” who has never actually been elected to office in Moldova - just as Dorin Recean has not ever been elected to public office.

By all indications, the decision to ask for the resignation of Prime Minister Gavrilita, and to begin the process of a change in government came from President Sandu. Most likely in close consultation with PAS leadership in parliament. According to polls President Sandu continues to hold the highest trust of elected officials amongst the public, while Prime Minister Gavrilita and her government tend to rank very poorly.

Some indications of why this change were made can be found in Prime Minister Gavrilita’s resignation statement, especially the following 2 sentences:

I have convinced myself that we are welcomed in the EU with open arms. If the Government had the same openness at home, we would have been able to move forward faster.

Here the outgoing Prime Minister nods to the fact that while her government has had major successes in building bridges and finding strong partners in Europe, they have not maintained the confidence of the voters in Moldova who are experiencing economic hardship and crisis.

Secondly:

The team I worked with at the Government was a team with expertise in the field of economic development. Now the priority is security.

This statement directly points to the appointment of Dorin Recean, who as the President’s National Security Advisor has taken a prominent, if behind the scenes, role in responding to the security crisis generated by the war in Ukraine.

These statements, taken with the statements of President Sandu and the expressed priorities of Mr. Recean, imply simply that the President and PAS leadership believed it was time for a change in management and focus. All statements from PAS leadership, outgoing ministers, and President Sandu indicate huge respect for the work that Prime Minster Gavrilita accomplished, while also opening the door for something new.

As to why now, that is a bit of a mystery. It is certainly not convienent following the Prime Minister’s successful trip to Brussels over the last week and the feeling of “suddenness” that accompanies this whole process.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, speaking in Brussels recently stated that Ukrainian intelligence had uncovered a plot by Russian agents to politically capture Moldova. He stated:

“Recently, I spoke with the President of Moldova, Ms. Sandu, and informed her of what our intelligence had managed to intercept: a detailed Russian plan to destroy the political situation in Moldova. A Russian document that shows who, when and as a result of what actions is going to break Moldova, the democratic order of this country and establish their control over it,”

The fact of this warning was confirmed by Moldova’s SIS and the office of the Presidency as accurate, with state agencies noting that they are working overtime to assure state security. Is it possible that this fact, as well as the continued flights of Russian missiles over Moldovan territory swung the discussion in a more security oriented direction in the past weeks?

Possibly. But this author believes that the most likely answer is the simplest. A new year has begun and in the new year people naturally make plans for the future. Most likely a change was something long contemplated by President Sandu and PAS leadership and now was simply the time they chose to implement it. The timing was inconvenient, but rarely is there a convienent time to make such a change amidst so many challenges and crisis.

What the next few weeks have in store

Prime Minister Gavrilita has resigned. Prime Ministerial Candidate Dorin Recean must now form his government and program. Over the next week or weeks we will closely follow this process. Most likely some current ministers will stay in their jobs, but some will not. The government program is likely to be very interesting in itself and we will do a Deep Dive into the document when it is released. The last time a government program was prepared, as Natalia Gavrilita prepared to become Prime Minister, was August 2021 (link to our Deep Dive into the program). This was before the war, before the energy crisis, before COVID19-Delta arrived (much less Omicron). In short, a long long time ago in political terms.

Stay tuned to Moldova Matters for updated news and analysis as the new government is formed and their program presented for a vote of confidence in Parliament in the coming weeks.