Quick Hit: Will Gavrilita Resign?
Rumors swirl in Chisinau about government resignations on Friday
This week, rumors have been swirling about a possible cabinet reshuffle or even the resignation of the Prime Minister. These rumors hit a fever pitch on Friday February 10th with renowned investigative news outlet ZdG reporting that sources inside the government claim Prime Minister Gavrilita will resign today. These sources say that meetings are ongoing between the Presidency and PAS parliamentary leaders. Some put the time of resignation at 1 pm. If the Prime Minister, and hence the government, resigns, PAS will begin the process of using their Parliamentary majority to elect a new Prime Minister and form a new Cabinet of Ministers. Sources talking to ZdG and writing on various telegram channels suggest that some ministers will stay in post - some won’t.
This is the second time in 4 months that such rumors reached a fever pitch. As we wrote on November 18th American Political Scientist Jason Smart created a fervor after posting on twitter that Prime Minister Gavrilita would resign and be replaced by Dorin Recean, currently Defense and National Security Advisor to President Sandu. That rumor turned out to be false with multiple less reputable news websites simply running with the tweet from Dr. Smart. Todays rumors however are far better sourced with reputable outlets such as ZdG not being known for publishing until they have their facts straight.
ZdG reported that multiple PAS sources say that the Prime Minister will resign at a press conference at 1 pm. PAS MP Radu Marian stated:
"Today the Presidency and the Government will make statements. During today's meeting at the level of deputies, we discussed possible changes in the Government, but the institutions will make statements in this regard very soon".
At the same time, the idea of a government resignation right now seems incredibly poorly timed. Prime Minister Gavrilita has spent the last 4 days in Brussels meeting with senior EU leadership as well as country leaders in order to drum up further support for Moldova and navigate Moldova’s EU ascension process.
All indications seem to be that the trip was a success with multiple high level meetings and a pledge of 145 million euros of additional economic and energy aid from the EU. If the government does resign today or in the near future it will likely be seen as a chaotic and abrupt move given the Prime Minister’s high visibility trips and there being very little warning that a change was coming.
Speculation Abounds
With the rumors and leaks of a government resignation comes speculation as to who PAS may choose as the next Prime Minister *if* there is in fact a change. Topping the list in speculation is Dorin Recean, Defense and National Security Advisor to President Sandu and previous Minister of Internal Affairs under the Filat and Leanca governments 2012 - 2015.
Other names frequently tossed around are Igor Grosu, PAS Speaker of Parliament, and Andrei Spinu, Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development.
Vyacheslav Platon, the fugitive oligarch currently residing in the UK weighed in with his own theory writing that the party would select Vasile Tofan. Mr. Tofan is partner at Horizon Capital, a private equity investment company active in Moldova and Ukraine, and a well known business leader in Moldova. Platon attempted to smear Vasile Tofan by claiming (with no evidence) that he is close to Plahotniuc because of his relation to Horizon Capital which owns Moldova Agroindbank (again, zero evidence linking him to Plaha).
Mr. Tofan responded saying that it is easy to show that Horizon Capital has nothing to do with Plahotnuic by looking at whose money they actually manage - the development bank Holland, France, the USA, Germany, Denmark, EBRD and more. Essentially they are partners with most international development agencies active in Moldova.
Interestingly, Mr. Tofan did not push back on the idea that he was being considered for Prime Minister.
This is a developing story and should there be a major change in the government we’ll come back with another Quick Hit article to attempt to break down what has happened. For the moment, even rumors of such hasty shakeups are unsettling and the idea that the Prime Minister may resign abruptly without a clear successor opens up the unpleasant scenario of a messy transition. If the government does resign, President Sandu and all the members of the PAS Parliamentary faction will be judged on how professional and seamless the transition will be.