Weekly Roundup

May 20, 2023

The Next Few Weeks in Moldova Will be Busy

The biggest news in Moldova right now is about the two major upcoming events this week. Tomorrow, May 21st will be the Grand National Assembly called by President Sandu to rally people in support of European Integration. This event is planned as a mass demonstration of popular support for Moldova’s EU trajectory and a signal to western partners that the country is united in this goal. Next week, on June 1st Moldova will host the European Political Community with more than 40 heads of state and government now confirmed as attending the event. Taken together these events represent the most consequential substantive and messaging events in Moldova’s foreign policy since independence.

Author’s Note: Covering these events as well as my plans to take some vacation in mid June, will result in a somewhat scrambled publishing schedule for Moldova Matters over the next 3-4 weeks. Around the National Assembly and Summit we’ll focus on stand alone articles covering these events which might delay normal Weekly Roundups. If anything I expect more Moldova Matters articles in this period than normal but on a different schedule and structure than normal. Thanks for understanding!

The Grand National Assembly

Preparations for tomorrow’s event are in full swing in Chisinau with police announcing road closures in the center of the city starting at 8 am this morning and continuing through 6 am Monday. This is to allow the setup of the stage and to create security preparations for the event. Police have also announced 4 special parking areas around the city for the event to allow for people traveling from across Moldova to get into the city without congesting downtown.

This week President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola confirmed her attendance at the event where she is expected to address the assembled crowd alongside President Sandu. The presence of such a high level EU figure at what is essentially a political (if technically non-partisan) event in Chisinau is clearly meant to signal not only strong support for Moldova’s EU aspirations but also for President Sandu and the current government.

Last week the government announced a solution to a technical problem that had complicated the event since its original announcement. We wrote back in April about how various groups including the Socialist Party had already booked the square on the day of the event and therefore could claim first rights to hold a rally there that day. The National Commission for Emergency Situations overcame the gordian knot of negotiations that were supposed to follow such a conflict by using its emergency powers to simply announce that the government has priority for organizing all events from May 14th to June 2nd. This is within their legitimate emergency powers but has sparked some questions about the restriction of counter protest. In reality, the claim of the Socialists on the space was quite weak as it was booked back in 2019 when the party chose to book protests every Friday, Saturday and Sunday in central Chisinau 6 years in advance. Since they don’t actually protest that much the basic intention can be seen to be making just the sort of procedural trouble they made here.

Ilan Shor announced that the Shor Party will be holding counter protests calling for a referendum on the “external vector of the country” in Balti, Comrat and Orhei on the same day.

The success of this event will largely be determined by crowd size and the excitement that it can generate in Moldova. The government clearly hopes that a successful event tomorrow will strengthen the perception of Moldova’s unity of purpose heading into the June 1st summit.

European Political Community (EPC) Summit Preparations

Security and logistical preparations are continuing at a feverish pace for the EPC summit on June 1st. The government announced this week that spending related to the summit has been classified a state secret in order to "to avoid acts of sabotage and disturbances." Full reports of government spending on the event will be released after it is done.

Costs related to the summit include rental of the venue Castel Mimi, renovation of roads between central Chisinau and the summit location in the village of Bulboaca, renovation of the train station in the village and presumably much more. Costs for the event will be shared by the government and the Council of the EU.

The Mayor of Bulboaca, Ion Berzoi, spoke about the preparations for his town of about 5000 people becoming the political center of Europe for a day saying:

"Law enforcement went to all the locals, especially those near Castel Mimi. People were informed about the event. We will have special badges that show that we are from the locality, and based on them we will have access to the locality. People think that it would be good to have the opportunity to see at least a country president, but we will see then how and if it will be possible. We all have expectations from this event. Any change is positive. Regardless of who will come, we want a change and a clear vision to live better. We all want to have better times"

As part of the security preparations for the event the Ministry of Internal Affairs announced that they would be creating a temporary accommodation center near the airport for people refused entry to Moldova in the days before the event who cannot be deported because of the flight and airspace restrictions on June 1st and 2nd. Moldova continues to carefully filter foreigners wishing to enter the country and turn back large numbers of people who are suspicious or who cannot clearly explain their reason for travel. For example, on May 12th alone 34 foreign citizens were denied entry and sent back to their country of origin. This number included a Russian mercenary who had previously fought in Ukraine and apparently wanted to cross through Moldova and enter Ukraine. Preparations to accommodate such people show that the government is trying to prepare for every scenario around the summit including a last minute influx of “undesirable persons.”

Mayor Ceban’s Primaria (city hall) announced their efforts to support the summit with a strange and somewhat comical plan to issue 2500 free trolleybus tickets for official government representatives who are attending. The Primaria has turned over the tickets to the Foreign Ministry but this was not coordinated with the government and it is unclear what will happen to them. It’s a little hard to imagine President Macron or his delegation riding a trolleybus, but perhaps the good intentions of the Mayor got ahead of such practical issues.

Gagauzia’s (final?) Election Results

The second round of the Gagauzian elections was held on Sunday May 14th resulting in a narrow victory for the Shor Party candidate Evghenia Guțul. Guțul beat her Socialist opponent Grigory Uzun 27,374 votes to 24,926 getting 52% of the vote. Guțul spoke about her victory saying:

“Today’s victory is the victory of all Gagauzia and the beginning of turning it into a land of dreams,”

Mr. Uzun conceded following the race calling the campaign “fair and decent.”

Not all parties agree with this last statement and the end of the voting does not necessarily indicate the end of the process. Investigations by anti-corruption prosecutors and the anti corruption police CNA continue into the conduct of the Shor Party including searches on May 13th of multiple Shor Party offices and officials related to illegal party financing. Speaking about these investigations and allegations of electoral crimes, the head of the Gagauzian Central Election Commission GCEC said that the elections will not be declared invalid saying:

“I am inclined to the version that there is still no such probability. Elections are declared invalid if violations were committed during the elections that could affect the results of voting. As you can see from our briefings and statements that were filed today, the violations were minor and all complaints were satisfied,”

The national Central Election Commission in Chisinau CEC seems not to agree and has been presented with evidence from Anti-Corruption Prosecutors regarding multiple problems, setting up a potential conflict between the national and regional authorities. The CNA actually conducted searches at the GCEC on May 16th with their spokeswoman saying "criminal prosecutions are currently taking place in the case of voter corruption."

These searches focused on obtaining the voter lists from the election. Voter lists were removed from their secured containers in the presences of GCEC officials and with video recording to assure that there was no tampering by the CNA or other parties. Speaking of the motivation for the voter list checks officials said:

"As part of the special investigative measures, the reasonable suspicion emerged that the electoral lists contained persons who, at the time of the election, would have been outside our country, so they could not physically participate in the elections, as well as deceased persons"

It is important to note that voters themselves are not under investigation with the authorities trying to stress that there is no reason to perceive voter intimidation in these actions. Following these searches the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia held an emergency session on the night of May 16th and declared unanimous support for the GCEC and the election results.

The aftermath of the elections is setting up a major conflict between the central authorities in Chisinau and Gagauzia. Radu Marian, Vice President of the PAS Party and Chair of Parliamentary Committee for Economy, Budget and Finance was only one of many senior PAS officials to call out election problems saying:

"Democracy means free and fair elections, and the legitimacy of the popular vote is directly related to compliance with rules and procedures. There is countless evidence, including published in the public space by law enforcement bodies and civil society, that denote cases of electoral fraud, voter corruption and gross violations of the electoral code, which are incompatible with democracy.”

The Vice Speaker of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia George Leiciu called out the growing wedge between Chisinau and Comrat in the election aftermath saying:

“It's amazing for me. The society was divided 50/50, someone was for Guțul, someone was for her competitor [socialist Gregory] Uzun. In the end, Guțul won. But after the searches, almost 90% of the society rallied around Guțul. Not because she is a beacon and the face that will lead us to a bright future. Everyone was outraged by the arrogance and boorish attitude of the central authorities towards the will of the people,”

It remains unclear what the outcome of the many investigations into the election will be. One thing is clear, whether Guțul takes her seat as Bashkan or not, the political rift between Chisinau and Comrat is widening dramatically.

Shor continues to battle the Socialists… and everyone else

This week the Socialist Party abruptly announced the expulsion of 2 Socialist MPs from the party, Vasile Bolea and Alexander Sukhodolsky. As we wrote about before, both MPs supported Viktor Petrov against the Socialist candidate in the Gagauzian elections. The reason for the expulsion appears to be the sighting of the 2 MPs as well as Viktor Petrov boarding a flight to Tel Aviv to meet with Ilan Shor on May 17th. On returning from Israel Bolea told the press that he was indeed leaving the Socialist party and that he had met with Shor in Israel. Vasile Bolea has been a very prominent member of the Socialist Party for many years and his sudden defection bodes very poorly for the Socialists in their struggle to maintain their MPs against Shor.

Ilan Shor also met with senior Gagauzian officials in the last few days as they too traveled to Israel to meet with him. In a statement he said that he was discussing plans by his party to make Gagauzia the “land of dreams.”

Meanwhile, the previous 2 MPs who defected from the Socialists to Shor’s “Movement of the People” announced they would be joining the extra-parliamentary “Renastrea Party” (Renaissance), led by a former presidential advisor to Igor Dodon. It appears that Shor is not putting all of his cards in one party basket. This may be because the Constitutional Court CC held multiple hearings over the past week on the government’s request that the Shor Party be declared unconstitutional. The government’s case focuses on the criminality of Shor as well as Russian backing for the formation. The CC heard arguments between May 10th and 17th before announcing a break in considering the case until June 12th.

Meanwhile the CEC has approved Volodymyr Vityuk to take Ilan Shor’s place in Parliament. The new MP is the next in line from the Shor Party electoral list.

Last week, Ilan Shor posted a video message from Israel to the countries he calls the “5 great powers,” Russia, China, India, Turkey and Brazil. In it he said:

“I ask you to raise the issue of the genocide taking place in Moldova today in the UN Security Council. Please pay attention and help Moldova get out of this unprecedented lawlessness and yoke. The memory of people is being humiliated, the entire people of the Republic of Moldova is being humiliated in the name of their own interests,”

The loss of 2 more MPs from the Socialist Party, the “victory” of the Shor candidate in Gagauzia and the continued statements and political actions of Shor himself all show that Ilan Shor is now the primarily leader of the opposition in Moldova… Even if this “opposition” is primarily based in Israel and Moscow.

Moldovan International Affairs

Much of the week’s news was in the sphere of international relations. Here is a quick roundup of the key stories of the week:

• President Sandu traveled to Canada and met with President Trudeau to discuss Canada’s support for Moldovan territorial integrity and fight against corruption. While no firm commitment was announced, Canadian authorities said they are considering following the US and UK in sanctioning people responsible for corruption and human rights abuses in Moldova.

• President Sandu then traveled to Chicago to attend the Moldovan-American convention where she and multiple Ministers and government representatives met with the Moldovan diaspora. The event was attended by multiple members of congress including Senator Dick Durban (D IL) and Representative Mike Lawler (R NY17). Representative Lawler is the co-chair of the Congressional Moldova Caucus and his wife is an immigrant from Moldova. Following the congress Moldova was discussed in the US House Foreign Affairs Committee where USAID Administrator Samantha Power briefed the committee on the challenges facing Moldova and especially the need to support the country in the area of energy security. Speaking during the hearing Representative Lawler said:

“Under the leadership of President Maia Sandu, Moldova in a short time has made significant progress in the fight against corruption and the implementation of reforms, European integration and cooperation with the United States. It is extremely important to maintain and strengthen our relations with Moldova in order to counter Russian aggression,”

Photo from Moldovan-American convention facebook page

• US and Moldova sign the Open Skies Agreement. The agreement was signed in Chisinau between US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma and Moldovan Infrastructure Minister Lilia Dabija. This agreement provides for nonstop flights for commercial and cargo aviation between the countries. In practice, anyone looking for a nonstop Chisinau > Washington flight should probably not hold their breath. The move is seen as largely symbolic, supporting Moldova’s eventual ability to attract such routes and harmonizing the civil aviation relationship between the US and Moldova under the same terms that US carriers have in the EU.

• Romania indicates that investment in Moldova is integral to the rebuilding of Ukraine. Marcel Ciolacu, chairmen of Chamber of Deputies of the Romanian Parliament, spoke at the Black Sea regional security conference saying that rebuilding Ukraine and Moldova are “inseparable” ideas. He noted:

“We have to create the necessary infrastructure, continue to do what we started. We must unite the railways by switching to the European gauge. First of all, you need to do it in Moldova and connect the Iasi-Chisinau section. We cannot talk about the restoration of Ukraine without talking about the possible restoration of Moldova. There are two countries in the package,”

• Moldova will withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States CIS. Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu announced the start of this process on May 15th saying that multiple agreements have already been abrogated and more are in the process of cancelation. PAS representatives explained the move in the context of the War in Ukraine and Moldova’s European trajectory. The Socialist Party condemned the move calling again for closer relations with Russia and saying that any major decisions on the nation’s international trajectory should be held in a referendum.

That’s all for this Week’s Roundup. We’ll be back soon with coverage of the Grand National Assembly held tomorrow and more updates about the upcoming European Political Community Summit.

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