Quick Hit: What to Expect from the Gagauzia Elections

Over 90,000 residents of Gagauzia will have the opportunity to vote for a new Bashkan today

Apr 30, 2023

Author’s Note: Today, April 30th, are the elections for the Bashkan (Governor) of the autonomous region of Gagauzia. In today’s Quick Hit we’ll take a look at the candidates, the polls, and the stakes of the election. We’ll follow up in a few days with the Weekly Roundup which will discuss the outcome of the election (if there is one) and what comes next.

Gagauzia - What are the stakes?

Gagauzia is an autonomous region within the Republic of Moldova governed by its local legislature the People’s Assembly, and local governor the Bashkan. During the disintegration of the Soviet Union the region declared independence as the Gagauz Republic and was de-facto independent from 1990 to 1994 before being peacefully reintegrated into Moldova. The region is located in the south of Moldova and is non-contiguous as a result of referendums held in each locality to opt-into the region when the it was re-integrated.

Left Image Source (Public Domain) | Right Image Source CC

Gagauzia is primarily defined as the home of an ethnic minority, the Gagauz people. The Gagauz language is Turkic in origin but is not spoken widely. Most of the region is Russian speaking with very little Romanian being spoken. The capital of the region is the city of Comrat.

Since 1994 there have nearly always been tensions between the Chisinau and Comrat elected authorities stemming both from local issues as well as identity politics. Residents of Gagauzia are highly pro-Russian, in part because of language ties and in part because of a widespread distrust of Romania.

Over the last year the strains have increased due to the War in Ukraine and the deterioration of relations between Chisinau and Moscow. The People’s Assembly is split between more radical pro-Russian (anti-Chisinau) representatives and a more moderate wing. The outgoing Bashkan Irina Vlaha has had many public disagreements with the PAS government and President Sandu in particular, but has taken a pragmatic approach accepting EU support and supporting greater learning of the Romanian language.

The outcome of this election will determine if a more moderate center can hold, or if the more radical anti-EU, pro-Russian forces will gain an electoral victory that could further destabilize Moldovan politics.

How are the Elections Conducted?

The election for the Bashkan is done by popular vote with polling stations open from 7 am to 9 pm today. There are around 92,000 registered voters in the region and the Central Election Commission has prepared 93,000 ballots, with around 3000 in Romanian, 3000 in Gagauz and 86,000 in Russian. In order to win a candidate needs to get over 50% of the vote. Given that there are 8 candidates and the election is highly competitive (more on the polls below) it is highly unlikely anyone will get past the threshold today which leads to a runoff election in a few weeks time between the top 2 vote winners. Also, in order for the election to be valid at least 50% of registered voters must cast a ballot - around 47,000 people. Given that the last election for the People’s Assembly only drew 46,000 voters it is possible that today’s election will not be valid and a new election will have to be scheduled.

A Look at the Candidates and Polls

There are 8 candidates registered for today’s elections with 4 polling competitively. This is the first election in Gagauz history with such a competitive field and where there is no clear leader going into the vote. Here are the top 4 candidates and their pre-election poll numbers according to a recent poll by Intellect Group:

Grigory Uzun 18.7% - Independent candidate backed by the Socialist party and Igor Dodon. Mr. Uzun is running on a campaign to “resist European integration.”
Dmitrii Croitor 10.2% - Independent candidate who is the former Bashkan from 1999 - 2002 and later Moldova’s Ambassador to Turkey which is a major international partner and investor in Gagauzia. Mr. Croitor is an experienced candidate and more politically moderate, focusing on local issues and rarely invoking Russia either as the cause of, or solution to, problems.
Viktor Petrov 9.8% - Independent candidate backed by prominent Socialist MP’s Vasile Bolea and Alexander Sukhodolsky who split with their party on the election. Mr. Petrov leads the highly pro-Russian "People's Union of Gagauzia" organization which organizes rallies blaming the Chisinau government for pretty much everything, denying Russian war crimes in Ukraine and encouraging closer ties with Russia. The leader of Tatarstan who was recently denied entry into Moldova because he intended to “interfere” in the election was coming to support Petrov.
Evgenia Gutsul 8.4% - Candidate of the Shor Party. Before the election she was largely unknown and in spite of bring born in Gagauzia has tenuous links to the region and no political experience there. Ilan Shor has said that a vote for Evgenia Gutsul is a vote for him personally. Shor and Gutsul have promised to invest 500 million euros in the region, create 7000 jobs and raise everyone’s salaries by 30% if she is elected.

Additionally, Nikolai Dudoglo the former mayor of Comrat is polling at 5.9% and independent candidate Mihail Formuzal is polling at 4.2%. Polls show that 32.7% of voters were undecided right before the elections and experts caution that between the large number of undecideds, and lack of clear weighting of the polls to create a fully representative picture, the race is pretty much up in the air.

Pretty much all candidates have run a campaign focused on 2 issues. Firstly, economic hardship and poverty in the region. Often this is couched in anti-Chisinau terms and asserts that being closer to Russia will get better energy prices. Secondly, most candidates are running to prove they will be better at opposing the pro-EU policies of the Chisinau government.

Given the electoral environment in Gagauzia PAS decided that it would not run a candidate in the election at all, citing the difficulty of breaking through Russian media misinformation. Party leader Igor Grosu explained this decision in March saying:

“We are not supporting anyone in this election race. This is the party's decision. We are closely following the electoral process in ATU Gagauzia. It is very important for us that these elections are held correctly. These are not only the elections of the territorial-administrative unit, but also the elections held in the Republic of Moldova. And the correctness of the elections is an indicator of maturity, of how ready the country is to move forward in the European integration agenda,”

President Sandu further explained the decision last week saying in an interview that

“Their world is a world that is probably completely dominated by Russian propaganda, because we are facing this problem in other regions of the country. But let's not forget that people in Gagauzia don't speak Romanian. Most of them do not understand Romanian, which means they cannot hear another point of view,”

Many accusations have surfaced of both Socialist backed candidates and Shor’s candidate bribing voters with between 400 and 1000 lei per family to vote for them.

Since there are no pro-EU candidates in the election, the campaign has largely been a battle to be the most pro-Russian option available to voters.

What Does the Kremlin Think?

In past elections, such as the election of current Bashkan Irina Vlah, the Kremlin has publicly supported a candidate who invariably went on to win the election. In this case there are so many candidates that are acceptable to the Kremlin that they have not chosen to back a specific one. Instead, Russia has effectively boosted multiple candidates in different ways, probably hoping to provoke the current situation - where pro-Russian candidates try to outdo the others in their rhetoric and support of Moscow. Former Bashkan Dmitrii Croitor is the only exception as the sole moderate in the race.

In addition to the attempted campaign visit by the leader of the Tatarstan region in support of Viktor Petrov, various figures associated with the Putin regime have come out backing Evgenia Gutsul the Shor candidate. Popular Russian singers Stas Mikhailov, Philip Kirkorov, Nikolai Baskov and Jasmine (Ilan Shor’s wife), all put out video endorsements of Evgenia Gutsul with Philip Kirkorov calling Ilan Shor a “close friend” and saying that “The time has come, and Gagauzia will turn into a land of dreams. Evgenia Hutsul is exactly the person who is suitable for this.” Meanwhile, Igor Dodon has spoken at campaign events for Grigory Uzun promising that if he (Igor Dodon) is elected president again he will assure that Putin will visit Moldova and Gagauzia in particular.

So in short, unless Dmitrii Croitor pulls off a win, all leading candidates in the race are acceptable, or even highly desirable, for the Kremlin.

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