Quick Hit: Grand National Assembly for EU Integration

President Sandu calls for a Grand National Assembly on May 21st in support of European Integration

Author’s Note: The news regarding President Sandu’s call for a Grand National Assembly as well as the reactions of other parties and political commentators is too long to summarize in a Weekly Roundup. The President’s speech is worth printing in full, and it is important to understand the context and to print some analysis of the announcement. This Quick Hit is focused only on this upcoming event. We will publish the full Weekly Roundup in the coming days.

A Grand National Assembly Called on May 21st

On April 10th at 7 pm President Sandu reserved time with all major networks and addressed the nation. In her address the President called on citizens to form at Grand National Assembly by coming to a rally on May 21st on the Grand National Assembly Square (Piața Marii Adunări Naționale in Romanian) in support of European Integration. The President said that just as people gathered in past national assemblies for national independence, it is time for the people of Moldova to let the world know their choice is with Europe.

It is worth reprinting the President’s speech in full so that readers can better understand the motivations and implications of the upcoming event.

Image from facebook live stream of the event

Note: Transcription accessed via ZdG in Romanian (translated automatically). Bold and emphasis from ZdG.

"Moldova is currently in a moment of growth. What will happen to our country and the future of our children now depends on the power of our people to tell the world clearly what we want. It is decisive that we stay together on the same path and we say it without detours - Moldova will succeed!

Moldova, like other European countries, is paying a huge price for the senseless war started by Russia in Ukraine. For more than a year, young men have been dying in the fields where wheat grew in years past. Hundreds of thousands of innocent people are hit by bombs in their homes, where two years ago they were leading their ordinary lives with their daily worries and joys. Millions of people have lost everything they had, everything they agonized over a lifetime, and are on the run.

Russia continues an inhumane war against a peaceful neighbor. And it tries to weaken the unity of Europe and the determination with which European countries oppose injustice and crimes. The Kremlin's blackmail has led to higher energy prices for everyone, and because of this, the prices of all products and services have increased. Everyone's life has become more complicated, more expensive and more restless after February 24, 2022.

All this time, when Moldovans are working hard to take care of their families with dignity and to remain free, we still have people in our country who threaten us with war. All this time, all of us, together with the Government, the parliamentary majority, did everything to protect the people, we acted predictably, disciplined and wisely to ensure peace and stability in our country. An important role was and is played by the true patriots in the law enforcement agencies, who did their duty and respected their oath given to the people. A big role was played by our external friends who helped us and made it clear that they are ready to protect us from any threat.

Time proved that we chose the right path, and those who dreamed of destabilizing the situation in Moldova failed. Our people are wise and have not stepped into the trap laid by the cunning one.

At the same time, the dirty money that finances attempts at destabilization continues to flow. There are insane people in Moldova who watch what is happening in Ukraine and enjoy the crimes there. Who see the horrors of Bahmut, Bucea, Mariupol, Kherson and say that theirs are near. These people who sold out their country are now ready to see our villages and towns razed to the ground just so they can return to power. They're ready to see their parents' house hit by bombs, just so they can steal another billion.

A group of thieves, paid with dirty money, set out to block our European way, our way to peace and prosperity. The same characters kept Moldova stuck in poverty and corruption, and now they attack it by poisoning the souls of our people, through strife and division. The same dirty money corrupts various people in order not to allow justice to be cleaned. The same money finances the so-called protests. It would seem, on the one hand, that these groups that want to steal our freedom, that want to block our future, that want to destroy our peace and good understanding, scream louder than the voice of the people. Hundreds of thousands of people are watching as a handful of corrupt people plan to steal our children's future.

Europe is watching us. The whole world is watching us. 

Many have the wrong impression that the citizens of the Republic of Moldova are indifferent to what is happening. Many people mistakenly believe that the citizens of our country are indifferent and do not take a stand. Some still question whether our people really want to join the European Union.

I propose to answer them. 

I urge you to manifest, as a people, the clear decision to be part of the European family, based on respect, stability and economic collaboration . I urge you to show that the only master of this land is the people of the Republic of Moldova. I urge you to explain to those who still have doubts that the decisions regarding the future of the Republic of Moldova are made in the Republic of Moldova.

The time has come for the Moldovans to show that we are a determined people, a people who own their own house, a people who can defend their democracy, peace and communities with their heads held high.

I believe that the time has come for those who are watching us, both in the East and in the West, to see that, in the decisive moments for our destiny, we are united and brave.

I announce that we have launched the initiative to convene a citizens' meeting in Chisinau to tell the world that we are Europeans and that this is the path we have chosen. Let's answer those who ask what the Moldovans want. A blunt and clear answer. Let our voice be heard, the voice of the many, the voice of our people.

The European Moldova national assembly will be organized on May 21, in the Grand National Assembly Square. Everyone's voice will cement our European path . I come with an appeal to all – people who work the land, teachers, students, non-governmental organizations, entrepreneurs, doctors, people of culture, private sector employees, civil servants – together to support our common dream. Let's prove that we want peace. We want the European Union to be at home. Just as we came together when we demanded independence and we got it. As we rallied and defended our democracy and persevered through the toughest of times. So let's gather now.

I will discuss in the next period with the pro-European political forces, with the civil society, the academic environment, with the personalities of our country details related to this event, but, first of all, I wanted to address the people directly. Even if we have some grudges, even if sometimes we have different opinions, now is not the time for quarrels and divisions. Now is the time to unite and become part of the European family together. I come with this exhortation, because at crucial moments big decisions are not made only by politicians. Big decisions are made by the people in the Grand National Assembly Square.

We are at a great crossroads. What we do now will affect our lives, our children's lives and our children's children's lives. Future generations will look at how we behaved in these times and ask - what did we do to defend our country. What have I done to be part of the civilized world that solves problems without war? What have we done for future generations to protect them from harm? How did we come together and decide that the fate of our children will be a future of peace, understanding and prosperity?

On May 21, 2023 we will gather to answer these questions together.

I am waiting for you at the Moldovan European National Assembly"

Analysis - What is a Grand National Assembly and why has one been called?

A Grand National Assembly is effectively a mass demonstration, in this case for the cause of Moldova becoming a member of the European Union. Similar mass demonstrations preceded Moldovan independence from the Soviet Union and are meant to highlight society’s unity around an issue of national consequence.

Experts agree that the primary purpose of the national assembly is political. It is worth focusing on the language of the speech above. Firstly, President Sandu calls out Russian aggression in some of the starkest terms yet used by the Moldovan government. The speech clearly identifies Russian responsibility for the war, atrocities, political destabilization in the region, high gas prices and the various crises afflicting everyday Moldovans. At the same time the President seeks to highlight the efforts of the government and parliament in the face of these crises. Interestingly, the President calls out Igor Dodon directly by using the phrase “theirs are near” when discussing the horrors of Bucha and Irpin. This is referencing a quote by Igor Dodon where he spoke to a crowd in Gagauzia and urged them to take comfort because “ours are near.“ The former president claimed this was an innocuous reference to the Socialist party, but many took it as a reference to the fact that Russian troops are not so far away and accused Mr. Dodon of supporting Russian advances.

In this speech President Sandu levels direct attacks against the Kremlin, pro-Kremlin parties in Moldova and so called “criminals” working as Kremlin cutouts. At the same time the President calls on a uniting of society around the country’s European aspirations.

This author’s analysis is that the following main political purposes can be served by organizing the rally successfully:

• Responding to Shor’s “Movement for the People” - All winter, Shor’s protests and paid demonstrations have made headlines in Moldova and internationally. Even though these rallies rarely brought more than 4000 people to the streets, many of them paid, they dominated the news. Holding a rally in support of European Integration is designed to show a united face on the main political question of the time, both to the country and to the world.

• Battling the Perception that Moldova is Fractured - Shor’s protests as well as loud but disorganized voices from other opposition parties (Socialists, etc) have often been covered in Moldova and internationally as showing that the country is evenly divided between “east and west.” Further, poor reporting from western news outlets (e.g. the Wall Street Journal) on the “collapse” of the pro-European Moldovan government in February further pushed a narrative of disarray. As we have previously written there was no “collapse” as such. By gathering a mass demonstration for a European future the President and government are focusing people’s attention on a political issue that they know the majority of Moldovans support in order to demonstrate national unity.

• Attempt to Regain the Narrative - The President and government want to refocus people’s attention on the steps that were taken over the last year which have brought Europe closer than ever before. The government largely lost control of the political narrative last year in the face of crises, inflation and war. Coming out of winter they hope to regain the narrative and some political capital for their accomplishments in moving Moldova closer to the EU.

• “Wedging” the Opposition - EU integration is broadly supported by the Moldovan public but massively divides the opposition parties. This makes it an ideal wedge issue for PAS. The Socialists and Shor Parties are clearly pro-Russia. But other opposition parties will have to decide if they heed the President’s call to unite with PAS on this issue of national importance, or if their opposition to PAS trumps their stated pro-European goals. We’ll see below how parties are managing this complicated position that the President has put them in.

• Buildup to June 1st - The timing of the event is most likely chosen as a lead-in to Moldova’s hosting of the second meeting of the European Community on June 1st in Chisinau. President Sandu and the government are looking for political capital going into this event where 47+ world leaders from the European Community will be in Chisinau.

Reactions of other Political Parties

Following the announcement of the national assembly Ilan Shor quickly announced that his party would take part in the demonstration but in opposition. The Shor Party and “Movement for the People” that they lead will protest for neutrality and “good relations with everyone.”

Other opposition parties found themselves “wedged” by the call to assembly. Gheorghe Cavcaliuc, fugitive leader of the PACE party (which is itself a member of the “Movement for the People”) announced that PACE would also take part in the demonstration. He noted that PACE is pro-EU integration but would protest against PAS and President Sandu, saying that EU integration can only come when PAS is gone.

Similarly Irina Vlah, Bashkhan (governor) of Gagauzia also noted that while she supports EU integration she would not support the demonstration because it is…

“Manipulation and party propaganda! It is obvious that the ruling party PAS is losing the trust of the voters. This is the biggest political mistake in the last decade,”

On the other side of the wedge, Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban’s new MAN Party announced that they would take part in the event supporting Moldova’s EU aspirations. The Mayor said that EU integration must become a “national idea” outside of parties and said that his party is willing to support the organization of the demonstration.

Right away we can see that the call to a national assembly has split nominally pro-EU parties in the opposition into 2 camps. The MAN Party supports the protest claiming that EU integration is above party politics, a claim PAS also has made. Meanwhile, PACE and the Bashkhan clearly believe that EU integration is secondary to defeating the PAS Party and President Sandu and will instead protest against the majority pro-EU party which has only recently gained Moldova EU Candidate status. As predicted the “wedge” is already highlighting the true priorities in the opposition groups large and small.

Complicated Logistics

**Correction:** in the original version of this article (text below) we wrote that the government failed to book the place of the demonstration on time and was beaten to the punch by the Socialists and Movement for the People (Shor). This was not accurate as it implied a scramble for booking the date which the government lost. The Socialists actually booked a protest for this dated back in May 2019 (for reasons that are unclear). The Movement for the People (Shor) booked on April 5, 2023. The government booked their spot the day after the President’s announcement on April 11th. This was most likely the first available moment after the announcement of the event which was done at 7 pm after working hours for city hall. Since this was not a “race to book” on that date the government knew that the date would be contested and was not caught off guard. We are sorry for this mistake and misreading of the underlying reporting. The procedure for city hall to adjudicate the schedule conflict written below is correct.

Outside of pure politics, a major logistical wrinkle emerged 2 days after the President’s speech on April 12th. It appears that while the President announced the date of the assembly as May 21st, the government failed to book the Grand National Assembly Square (Piața Marii Adunări Naționale) for that date. Three other protests registered with the mayor’s office for that date instead. They are:

1. Solo protestor Nikolay Besedovsky who intends to demonstrate against corruption in the customs service.

2. The “Movement for the People” intends to hold an anti-government protest.

3. The Socialist Party also plans an anti-government protest.

There is also a small producers fair scheduled on the square that day.

According to municipal rules, the mayor’s office is responsible for bringing together the groups that all want to use the same space and trying to find accommodations to split the space or find alternate locations. In the case that no agreement can be reached the group that signed up first gets precedence.

The fact that the government announced such a major assembly, but allowed themselves to be beaten by the Shor Party and others when registering the protest, is not a good look. Government Press Secretary Daniel Voda announced that they are working with law enforcement and the mayor’s office to figure out the mechanism of organizing the multiple protests. The government and PAS Party are extremely keen to demonstrate that they will follow the letter and spirit of the law in this demonstration, including not allowing regional party groups to bus in protestors and utilizing other illegal organizing tactics favored by the Shor Party. Given that, it will be interesting to watch how they manage these logistical hurdles after having ceded first mover status to the opposition.