Perspective: Reflecting on Moldova's Election
November 15, 2024
Yesterday you got a guest article1 from former Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu arguing that Moldovans aren’t as divided as people think. In the piece he argues that the narrative that has emerged around the Moldovan election is wrong. That the country is not so divided and that taken together with all the circumstances Maia Sandu’s victory and the passage of the EU referendum show strong Moldovan support for EU integration.
I thought the piece was worth sharing on Moldova Matters because I’m very sympathetic to this argument. In a year that was disastrous for incumbent parties and politicians President Sandu largely maintained her vote share from 2020. In an election with unprecedented interference and electoral corruption Moldovan voters declared that “They cannot steal as much as we can vote” and were right.
While an 11 point victory in the presidential elections is a clear outcome, it is beyond arguing that the EU referendum was *close.* But as more information emerges it is starting to look pretty clear that the “disinformation wedges” I discussed in the article unpacking the first round played a big part. Some number of voters who voted “No” in the referendum in order to oppose a constitutional amendment also support Moldova’s European integration. This leaves the country in a bit of a sticky place where all sides can make an argument for their preferred reading of the outcome. Probably the only clear result is that politicians will think long and hard before calling a referendum in the future.2
Today I’m sharing some thoughts on the election results and what they say about Moldova going forward.