Election Updates and New Candidates
Catching Up: August 19, 2024
Hi Moldova Matters readers! I’m back from my holidays and will be working this week to get us caught up on the news of the month. As predicted August has been a slow news month… but not a “no news” month. Today we’ll get caught up on the biggest and most important stories that we’ve missed in the last few weeks. Later in the week I’ll follow up with an article looking at some of the smaller but still important stories as well as how Moldova did at the Olympics.
I’ve also got a few podcast episodes recorded and on the editing table plus some culture and deep-dive articles in the queue. So after a brief August break we’re back!
Shor Gathers more Presidential Candidates
In late July we wrote about how Vasile Tarlev has emerged as Shor’s candidate in the October presidential elections. This turns out to have been pre-mature as 2 more Shor affiliated candidates have announced their intentions to run for President.
Firstly, former prosecutor Victoria Furtuna announced on July 30th that she would run for President as an independent candidate. Furtuna previously resigned her post as an Anti-Corruption Prosecutor after alleging that her access to state secrets (security clearance) had been revoked by the Security and Information Service (SIS) who had deemed her a threat to state security (we covered this in 2 weekly roundups, here and here). Furtuna announced her run for the presidency in a highly unconventional way - recording a video in Tiraspol standing in front of a Transnistrian flag and statue of Russian General Suvorov.
Newsmaker reports that Furtuna has close ties to Shor. Furthermore, experts agree that her candidacy has clear Russian support. The video of her announcement, in which she speaks directly to camera while holding a dove (or white pigeon) before dramatically releasing it is highly produced. Filming such advertisements in Transnistria requires coordination and official permission from the Ministry of State Security (MGB - the region’s KGB successor). In her announcement Furtuna focused on time tested Russian talking points about the Moldovan government aligning with NATO and potentially joining the war in Ukraine by attacking Transnistria.
It is not clear what constituency the former prosecutor hopes to draw on in the race.
Commenting on her entry into the race, President Sandu told Journal TV “This case confirms the need to evaluate prosecutors.” The President also rejected claims made by Furtuna that Moldova was planning on entering the war by attacking Transnistria and stressed the government record on peaceful diplomacy with the region.
Pobeda (Victory) has a Candidate
On August 2nd Ilan Shor’s Pobeda (Victory) block nominated Renaissance party member and “independent” MP Vasile Bolea as the block’s candidate for president. Unlike other candidates backed by the Kremlin and by Ilan Shor, no attempts are being made at hiding Bolea’s political affiliations. The announcement of his candidacy was actually made by Russian state media channel RIA Novosti and wasn’t confirmed by the candidate himself for several hours. Bolea has previously made a habit of wearing a black t-shirt with “Putin Team” printed on it in white letters to sessions of parliament.
Shor supported Bolea in a Telegram post calling him a “reliable friend.”
While the announcement of Bolea’s candidacy was low key his official nomination was anything but. The Pobeda party held a congress in Moscow on August 15th which involved elaborate pageantry and high profile speeches.
The congress was held at the "Museum of the Great Patriotic War” in Moscow and utilized the large dome of the building to project Pobeda / Victorie party logos. The party’s dominant color scheme of red combined with yellow stars was not subtle in this background.
The event began with video of Bolea, Bashkan Gutsul and Shor laying flowers at the Moscow’s WW2 memorial and then getting into a classic Soviet car - a “Pobeda” model. Timed to the end of this video clip, the car pulled up outside of the venue and Bolea, Shor and Gutsul strode in.
Bolea’s speech focused on what have become the standard tropes of the Pobeda block. He stated, referring to the museum, “This is the history of our country, not LGBT marches.” Most speakers made various attacks on gay rights and the LGBTQ community throughout their speeches. Gutsul gave a speech where she called President Sandu, Prime Minister Recean and Speaker Grosu "foreign agents" - utilizing a phrase that has been used in Russia as synonymous with the earlier Soviet “enemies of the people.”
While the whole endeavor was a race to the bottom in terms of toxic rhetoric, Duma deputy Vyacheslav Nikonov managed to exceed all others. He introduced himself as the grandson of Vyacheslav Molotov, famous from the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact whereby Stalin and Hitler partitioned Poland and carved up Eastern Europe between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany. The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact is particularly reviled in Moldova due to the treaty’s various “Secret Protocols,” some of which paved the way for the Soviet annexation of Bessarabia (modern day Moldova) from Romania.
In his speech Nikonov spoke of how Russians and Moldovans share "good genes" which due to the Soviet victory in the war are "…the genes of winners." He contrasted this with Western Europe which he said "submitted to Hitler, so they have the genes of losers." He went on to say that famed Moldovan king Stefan Cel Mare would be “ashamed” to learn that his decedents’ friends were "the Poles, Magyars and Turks, and not his brother-in-law Ivan III." Nikonov went on discussing how European culture has failed and how the continent is now a backwater “ruled by the State Department and gynecologist Ursula von der Leyen.”
Various other speeches played out Russian talking points, derisive statements and general grievance. Bolea claimed that "we have been deprived of our language and history" - missing (or ignoring) the obvious irony in such a statement.
Shor’s Three Candidates
It now appears that Ilan Shor is backing 3 candidates in the presidential elections. Vasile Bolea is being called the “open candidate” because he is openly nominated and supported by Shor’s party. Vasile Tarlev has been positioned as a candidate that will appeal to an older electorate nostalgic for his time as a prime minister under the Communists. There have also been strong rumors that the Communist Party under Voronin will line up behind Tarlev which would deliver their fading but still existent voter block.
Finally, there is Furtuna, who does not clearly serve any electoral purpose (yet). Various news outlets and experts have speculated that one of the purposes of having multiple candidates is to have backups in case some are disqualified before the election. Perhaps Furtuna is simply a backup candidate. Or maybe she’ll play some other campaign or electoral part in the weeks to come. We’ll see.
Opposition Pro-European Parties Feud and Fracture
While Shor and the Kremlin are lining up their candidates one by one, the opposition pro-European parties are focused on internal bickering, feuding and backbiting.
The biggest news on this front was the decision of the pro-European “Together” Block to nominate Octavian Țîcu as a common candidate. Together brought together 4 extra-parliamentary parties - the Coalition of Unity and Welfare (CUB), the League of Cities and Communes (LOC), Platform Dignity and Truth (DA) and the Party of Change. The new Block had sought a common pro-EU candidate to run against President Sandu as a credible alternative for voters who agreed with European integration but not the president.
The decision to nominate Octavian Țîcu was unexpected as he is not a member of any of the block’s 4 parties. More problematic, Țîcu is, in his own words, a "convinced unionist" who has focused much of his political career advocating for the union of Moldova and Romania. This issue is extraordinarily polarizing in Moldova and his nomination effectively indicates that the block is not competing to win the presidential election. Mr. Țîcu also ran for president in 2020 where he netted around 2% of the vote in the first round.
Following the block’s decision to nominate Octavian Țîcu the CUB party announced that they would be withdrawing from the Together Block and running their party leader Igor Munteanu for president. CUB accused the other parties in Together of "political blackmail" and claimed that Țîcu would be "docile to the PAS government." They did not stipulate what they meant by blackmail. Further, Octavian Țîcu has a fairly long history of being a thorn in the side of PAS given his unionist convictions so it is unclear what CUB meant by this association as well.
Together representatives accused CUB of acting out of "personal frustrations and ambitions" and the cycle of recriminations continued. None of these parties is remotely electorally viable on their own and the fracturing of attempts at cooperation underlines their political weakness in the presidential election1.
Here are some quick updates on how other pro-EU parties have (or haven’t) picked their presidential candidates:
ALDE splits. ALDE deputy leader Stefan Savitsky announced that he would run for president as an independent. Later party leader Arina Spataru (famous for last year’s undercover operation infiltrating the Shor party) clarified that the ALDE will not support any candidate for the election but would support the referendum. Spataru used the announcement to criticize PAS implying that President Sandu’s party is collaborating with the oligarchic and pro-Russian parties because PAS looks good in comparison. This apparently explains the inability of other pro-EU parties to gain traction.2
PSDE infighting. The Social Democratic Party of Moldova (formerly Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party) nominated former Defense Minister Valeriu Plescu for president. The former minister is not a PSDE member and is virtually unknown publicly. The PSDE’s vice chairman is publicly rejecting the nomination having supported his own candidacy splitting the party’s support.
AUR wants to be a platform to unite all unionist candidates… but has not explained what that means. The radical unionist party has not put forward their own candidate at this time.
With the dominance of inter-party and intra-party squabbles no serious pro-EU candidate has emerged who will challenge President Sandu in this election. At the same time the number of candidates nominated by extra-parliamentary opposition parties continues to expand and shift. Most likely we’ll only have a final headcount once electoral signature deadlines expire and we can clearly see who gained enough support to get on the ballot. In the meantime, pollsters are likely pulling their hair out as the ground continues to shift under them.
It is worth remembering though that CUB and the Together Block support a “yes” vote in the EU referendum. In this area they may be significant as a rallying point for voters who support EU integration but are disaffected by PAS and Maia Sandu.
Naturally it couldn’t be the incessant infighting, massive egos and total lack of a message with which to appeal to voters. Only in Moldova do you have opposition candidates polling at less than 1% (much less) utterly baffled as to why they don’t get to debate the sitting president one on one in prime time.