Weekly Roundup: International Updates and New Polls
March 15th, 2024
International Affairs
Last week President Sandu spoke at the European People’s Party (EPP) Congress in Bucharest. During the speech the President thanked the EPP for supporting Moldova’s EU aspirations calling the party Moldova’s "most reliable partner." She also spoke of the need to continue supporting Ukraine saying:
“We have no time for doubt. Ukraine needs the support of all free European countries. There is no more urgent task than supporting Ukraine and ensuring peace,”
PAS is affiliated with the center-right EPP in European politics. Current polling for the European Parliamentary Elections in June shows the EPP likely to maintain their top position in the body, but also facing pressures from the far right in some countries.
As President Sandu arrived at the congress, protestors in Bucharest greeted her with chants of "Maia Sandu is a despot"and other invective. Soon after, police and Anti-Corruption Prosecutors announced that they had uncovered and raided multiple “safe houses” where illicit money was gathered and distributed to Shor affiliated groups. They found 5.5 million lei as well as envelopes of money and a plan for the protest at the EPP Congress. Prosecutors stated that protestors were bussed from Moldova with around 10,000 euros allocated to each bus of 20 protestors, including hundreds of euro’s per protestor per day in payments. They also announced, but did not clarify, that the Romanian AUR party took some part in organizing these protests.
Other International Affairs News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of other important international stories about Moldova:
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recorded a message to Moldova at the “World Youth Festival” in Sochi. In it she inexplicably tried to link gender politics and Moldovan language politics saying: “Some people believe that there are 80 genders, but in fact there are two genders, and there is no middle gender, but there is a Moldovan language!” The message was likely partly a response to a final ruling by the Moldovan Constitutional Court recognizing as legal parliament’s bill cementing Romanian as the national language of Moldova from last year. This ruling also resulted in a comical exchange in parliament wherein former President Voronin refused to speak Romanian without a translator while noting that he could speak Moldovan perfectly well. Maria Zakharova continued her habit of speaking down to Moldova later with a strange press conference where she called Moldovans insufficiently grateful for the Russian Empire "liberating” the territory from the Ottoman Empire in 1812.
President Sandu traveled to Paris to meet French President Emanuel Macron. During the meeting, Sandu presented Macron with the “Order of the Republic” for “contribution to the development of friendly relations between Moldova and France, support for the European integration of Moldova and actions aimed at restoring peace in Europe.” France announced the opening of a “military mission” to Moldova which created immediate backlash from the Socialist Party who announced opposition to any such mission from a NATO country. The Ministry of Defense clarified that the “military mission” is one Lt. Colonel who will move her station from Bucharest to Chisinau as military attache. 10 diplomatic missions in Moldova already have military attaches including Russia and Belarus.
Romania is introducing legislative amendments that could substantially increase the time required for Moldovans to obtain Romanian citizenship. The current time for considering an application is 5 months, that may increase to up to 4 years and add a language proficiency test. These amendments are designed to meet American requirements for granting visa free travel to Romanian citizens.
Russia will open presidential polling stations in Transnistria. Moldova has notified Russia that only one polling station in the Russian embassy in Chisinau is permitted. Russia’s flaunting of these requirements and opening polling stations in Transnistria is typical for Russian elections. Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador in protest.
President Biden has nominated a new US Ambassador to Moldova. Kelly Adams-Smith currently serves as the Deputy Chief of Mission in the US mission to the European Union and is a career diplomat with over 20 years experience. She will still need to be confirmed by the Senate before she replaces Ambassador Logsdon whose term is expiring.
Ilan Shor’s Foreign Affairs…
Ilan Shor and his proxies are cosplaying roles as emissaries on Moldova’s behalf. Last week it became known that Bashkan Evghenia Gutsul1 met with Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the “World Youth Festival” in Sochi and posed for a picture.
Following the meeting she announced that she spoke with Putin about the “lawless actions of the authorities in Moldova” who are “taking revenge on us [Gagauzia]” and “violating [our] legal rights.” She also noted concrete proposals she made to Putin including asking for a direct contract for cheaper gas for the autonomous region and for Russian bank accounts for her staff and civil servants. The Bashkan noted that Ilan Shor promised higher salaries for civil servants but when money from “sponsors” arrived in Moldova it was sized by the national authorities. She is asking for Russian bank accounts and cards to prevent these seizures.
Prime Minister Recean responded to this trip and statements saying:
“Over the past two years, we have seen this criminal group make many false promises. I and all citizens are waiting for the members of this criminal group to be brought to justice. […] These are false promises,”
Acting Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu also announced this week that the active criminal case against the Bashkan for illegal party financing is nearing completion and will soon go to court.
Meanwhile, Ilan Shor posted a video announcement where he promised $10,000 in bitcoins to anyone who would send him photos, video or audio “confirming the corruption” of the country’s top leadership - President Sandu, Prime Minister Recean or Speaker Grosu. He offered $5,000 in payments for materials about any PAS MP or Minister.
Also this week, prosecutors again announced parliament to lift the immunity of Shor (party) leader Marina Tauber in relation to a case of obstruction of justice. Parliament voted to lift the MP’s immunity for the 9th time. Tauber joked that she had lost track of the times her immunity was lifted in criminal cases. A joke that, combined with Gutsel openly soliciting help in money laundering from Putin and Shor’s open promises of illegal payments, further highlight the apparent impotence of Moldova’s justice system when faced with Shor.
Justice and Justice Reform
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the other key stories of the week in the justice sector:
Prosecutor Victoria Furtuna resigned stating that she was told she was a “threat to state security by SIS.” Furtuna had served as a prosecutor for 18 years and was serving in the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s office when she alleges she her access to state secrets (security clearance) was revoked by SIS. She claimed that she was investigating a case where an organized criminal group was "causing chaos" in the judicial system by fabricating cases to discredit judges. Furtuna implied that government leaders were behind this effort and stated she would hold a press conference on March 15th with more details. Following her resignation a search of her office was conducted by the General Prosecutor’s office with permission of Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Dragalin. Prosecutors stated that the search was in relation to the intentional leaking of documents related to a case opened in January but subsequently closed for lack of evidence.
Anti Corruption Prosecutor Veronica Dragalin continues to look for a new office for her agency. After her previous suggestion that the Academy of Sciences building would be suitable caused protests, she has now identified a building in the Pedagogical University as suitable. This set off protests and petitions by teachers at the university who noted that they only recently refurbished this wing of the campus. Minister of Education Dan Perciun pushed back strongly saying: “we reiterate that the properties of Creangă University will remain under the management of the university and are to be used exclusively for teaching purposes." It is unclear why this internal debate on state property management has now spilled into the public twice in an uncoordinated and controversial manner.
Dragalin expresses doubts about vetting. The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor expressed concerns about the vetting of close family’s property and assets, specifically concerning her family who reside in the United States, saying:
“I have doubts about this procedure, especially because it concerns the confidentiality of my family members, my relatives. In the end, I decided to take this position and took on everything that came with it. But my parents, sister, my aunts and uncles did not take such responsibility,”
It is important to note that Veronica Dragalin herself has already passed vetting at an earlier stage, but will be subject to a new round of vetting that would encompass her family as well.
Security News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top security and defense stories of the week:
SIS Director Alexandru Musteata announced an “unprecedented level of intensity” in active measures by the Russian Federation against Moldova. He stated that the key goal is to disrupt Moldova’s democratic institutions and process in order to keep the country in Russia’s sphere of influence. In order to do this, the SIS Director stated that the Kremlin is working to influence this year’s elections, especially the referendum on EU accession, utilize local politicians who they control and to spark crises. Of the later he stated:
“They are planning crises in the economic and social spheres, social conflicts to incite ethnic hatred, crises of security and public order, including in Gagauzia or on the Left Bank of the Dniester. These crises will be launched sequentially or in parallel, often through concerted action and propaganda,”
Moldova will suspend its participation in the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. The 1990 treaty had previously limited various categories of conventional armaments with maximum numbers allocated to each “block” - 16 NATO countries and 6 Warsaw Pact nations. Moldova is withdrawing noting the “changed circumstances” since 1990. In practice, many nations defacto withdrew by not ratifying treaty updates after the fall of the USSR and Russia suspended participation in 2007 before fully withdrawing in 2023.
Transnistrian “leader” Krasnoselsky complained to the Russian ambassador that Moldova’s path towards European integration has “noticeably worsened” an already bad situation in Transnistria. He went on to state that while Moldova may choose the EU, Transnistria will not. Krasnoselsky also stated that he was open to direct meetings with President Sandu, but quickly pivoted to comparing Chisinau’s “economic pressure” to a "genocide of the Transnistrian population."
Prime Minister Recean responded by highlighting the inherent contradictions and untenability of the Transnistrian position by noting the “maximally interconnected” economy of Transnistria and the European Union which accounts for 70% of the region’s exports and 56% of their imports. The Prime Minister once again signaled that Chisinau is not moved by the increasingly hysterical announcements by Transnistria which is continuing to grope for a way back to the status quo anti.
Political News
Think tank IDIS Vitorul released a new poll conducted by CBS AXA looking at public opinion if elections were held tomorrow. Looking at how people would vote in parliamentary elections the poll found:
PAS - 22.7%
Block of Communists and Socialists BECS - 19.4%
“Chance” (Shor) - 6.7%
Usatii - 3.1%
All other parties were polling under 3%. 22.6% of respondents said they were “unsure,” 4.1% gave no response and 7.1% said they would not vote.
If Presidential elections were held tomorrow the poll found:
Maid Sandu 29.8%
Igor Dodon 14.8%
Ilan Shor 8.5%
Ion Chicu 5%
Irina Vlah 4.8%
Ion Ceban 4.5%
Not sure polled at 14.8%, no response 3%, no one 4.6%. Taking into account decided voters and comparing potential second round matchups the poll found that President Sandu handily wins the second round against anyone other than Igor Dodon where they polled 40.2% for Sandu vs 39.3% for Dodon.
On the referendum on joining the European Union the poll found 54.5% for, 30.5% against, 6.3% won't vote, 7.7% don't know and 1.1% no response.
Other Political News
Here is a rapid fire roundup of the top political stories of the week:
The Constitutional Court ruled amendments which would force Gagauzia to reimburse VAT overpayments in the autonomy unconstitutional. The ruling is a major win for the region which hopes to continue a situation where they collect taxes paid by local companies but are not responsible for reimbursing tax credits. The ruling was made on procedural grounds and not on the merits of the underlying law. As such, PAS deputies have announced they will reformulate the law and pass it once again through parliament.
Details emerge about the cost of the proposed vote by mail program for the US and Canadian diaspora. The Central Election Commission (CEC) estimates that the government will spend 1.2 million lei implementing the system, much of which will be spent on an IT system to confirm voters identities as they register for the program. Additionally, the CEC estimates that the cost per vote will range between $15 and $45 in mailing costs between diaspora voters and Moldova. This cost is multiplied by 2 for the election (ballot sent out and ballot sent back) and by 4 in the case of a runoff election. The CEC cannot estimate the total cost because they cannot estimate how many people will use the system. Opposition leaders continue to attack the decision to open mail voting only in the US and Canada (PAS strongholds) and election watchdog Promo-Lex has also called for the system to be universal and consulted with the Venice Commission and OSCE before implementation.
Author’s Note: While full details of how this system would work are not yet available, it seems that the plan is to largely mimic US and Canadian vote by mail systems. Voters would receive a ballot and outer security envelope which would have their identifying information on it. When received, the security envelope would be checked and the CEC would electronically verify if the voter later decided to vote in person - in which case the mail ballot would be discarded. Otherwise the vote would be anonymously counted. At the same time, the staggering costs do not reflect the standard procedure of US states. States often email the ballot to the voter who must then print and mail it themselves. Postage is free in the US but not internationally. At the same time voters may drop their ballot at an Embassy or Consulate. The system outlined by the CEC is both technologically more advanced (they claim they will use “digital neural networks" to compare uploaded selfies of voters who apply with their national ID photos) and staggeringly more expensive and paper-heavy. Most likely this system will not be able to move forward in this current conception.
Prime Minister Recean replaced his Minister of the Environment, Rodika Iordanov, with PAS MP Sergiu Lazarencu. No clear reason for the shakeup was given but Iordanov called the move a political decision by the Prime Minister.
Free Romanian language classes are massively oversubscribed. 12700 people signed up for 5000 places in the latest round of government provided Romanian classes. Minister of Education Perciun announced that online class sizes would be expanded to accommodate all applicants.
Communist Party Leader Voronin held a roundtable calling on parties to “join forces to discredit the referendum.” The meeting was attended by opposition politicians from many parties but only Voronin advocated a boycott openly. Most interesting was a speech given by “independent” MP Gaik Vartanian. Mr. Vartanian was formerly a member of the Socialist party but left the party while keeping his seat in parliament to join with Mayor Ceban in the nominally “pro-European” MAN party. Vartanian, in spite of this pro-European stance, made a speech quite contradictory to that position stating:
“Everyone understands that there are three options for participation in a referendum: either you campaign “for”, or you campaign “against”, or boycott. I think everyone understands that if those who are against boycott, thus the turnout of those who are against decreases. And the number of votes “for”, which Maia Sandu and the ruling government will flaunt, is precisely the number that will increase due to the boycott, it will increase sharply. Therefore, I believe that the boycott in this case will definitely play into the hands of the ruling party. Because no one in European capitals, including within Moldova during the parliamentary elections, will talk about how many people came. But everyone will name the numbers of those who voted “yes,”
A “pro-European” politician giving advice on how to best discredit the referendum should be a bit of a red flag for those interested in taking Mr. Cheban’s geopolitical conversion at face value.
Economics and Infrastructure
Here is a rapid fire roundup of the top economics and infrastructure stories of the week:
The National Bank announced the launch of a new money transfer system called MIA. The system has already been implemented by most banks and some 3rd party payment systems and allows individuals to send or request money to another person using only their phone number. Transfers would be commission free up to 10,000 lei / month and after that have commissions capped at 5 lei / transfer. Daily and monthly limits will apply. Companies can also use the system to send or receive money including generating QR codes for payments. Commissions for companies will be up to 0.8%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has agreed to a 30.8 million euro loan to Moldova. The loan will support the 77 million euro project to build high voltage transmission lines between Balti and the Romanian county of Suceava. The plan also envisions a 400 kW power plant being constructed in Balti. The EU has also committed 15 million euros to the project as a grant.
In the past we’ve largely transliterated Bashkan Evghenia Guțul (Евгения Гуцул)’s name as Hutsel. From now on we’re going to use Gutsul which is a more accurate and accessible English language rendering.