Election Update: Campaigning Ends, Investigations Continue
November 1, 2024
The Referendum Results Were Confirmed by the Constitutional Court
Yesterday the Constitutional Court (CC) confirmed the results of the referendum in a vote of 4-2. Confirmation by the court is required to finalize all electoral races in Moldova and the court considered questions of whether outside interference and manipulation warranted invalidating the results. In the end they decided to confirm meaning that the constitutional amendments passed in the referendum have been automatically incorporated into the constitution.
President Sandu welcomed the result and called on voters to take the next step this weekend saying:
"Together we won this battle and our goal was accomplished. It is to your credit, dear citizens - thanks to your vote, we were stronger than their theft. On Sunday we still have a battle to fight, so that the accession to the European Union becomes a reality as soon as possible. Dear citizens, great things are done step by step. The first step has been taken. Step 2 remains – let's win the elections on Sunday. And immediately after this, let's make sure that we become a member state of the EU by 2030. Go out to vote, because otherwise we risk losing everything we have"
Campaign Updates
Today is the last day of the presidential campaign. The Central Election Commission (CEC) warned candidates and activists to remember that tomorrow is the “day of silence” before citizens once again go to the polls on Sunday. Here is a roundup of the top news stories in the last days of campaigning:
iData presents a second round polling analysis. The company presented their polls of the coming matchup in 3 scenarios. They also modeled expected diaspora turnout and candidate preference. Here were their results:
Scenario 1: This scenario presented straight polling data without new weighting. It predicted a result of 50.95% for Maia Sandu, 44.8% for Alexandr Stoianoglo in Moldova. Factoring in the diaspora it predicts 55.2% Sandu / 44.8% Stoianoglo.
Scenario 2: This scenario weighted the poll and modeled the outcome based on the demographic turnout in the first round presidential election. It predicted a result of 47.32% for Maia Sandu, 52.68% for Alexandr Stoianoglo in Moldova. Factoring in the diaspora it predicts 52.2% Sandu / 47.8% Stoianoglo.
Scenario 3: This scenario weighted the poll and modeled the outcome based on the demographic data of those who voted in the referendum. It predicted a result of 46.07% for Maia Sandu, 53.93% for Alexandr Stoianoglo in Moldova. Factoring in the diaspora it predicts 51.1% Sandu / 48.9% Stoianoglo.
The parties of the Împreună bloc called on their supporters to vote against Stoianoglo. In their statement they attacked the record of President Sandu, called on her to sack 5 minister but then obliquely endorsed her calling on their supporters to “Participate en masse in the second round and vote against vote buying, against organized crime, against Ilan Shor, Igor Dodon, Veaceslav Platon and their candidate Alexandru Stoianoglo.”
All of the first round candidates have announced their endorsements (or lack thereof). Renato Usatîi, Andrei Năstase and Tudor Ulianovschi all called on their supporters to vote their consciences without an endorsement. Natalia Morari, Irina Vlah, Ion Chicu and Vasile Tarlev all called on their supporters to vote against Maia Sandu. Victoria Furtună called on her supporters to vote for Stoianoglo. Octavian Țîcu called on his supporters to vote against Stoianoglo.
Maia Sandu met with Chisinau Mayor Ceban to discuss the election and his priorities as mayor. Ceban did not endorse President Sandu but called on his supporters to vote saying:
"We are against any abuses, violations and vote buying. (…) I remain firm in the development of Chisinau and the Republic of Moldova on its path to European integration. On November 3 we go to the polls "
TV8 and ZdG Publish Major Investigations
This week TV8 released an investigation linking Stoianoglo and Shor through a mutual benefactor. The investigation reports that last Christmas Stoianoglo and his family spent the holiday in the Czech spa town of Karlovy Vary. They stayed at a luxury hotel with a bill of around 9,000 euros paid for by Moldovan businessman Mihail Apostol. Mr. Apostol is a major donor to Shor linked projects in Moldova including investing 350,000 lei in GagauziaLand and donating 1.8 million lei to a kindergarten renovation in Orhei. The finished renovation was a major Shor party event with Shor speaking to the crowd through a large TV set. Apostol is the subject of a criminal investigation related to this donation but has “chosen” not to attend the court hearings. He lives in Romania where his businesses are based.
Mihail Apostol’s companies in Romania have not been very successful over the past 2 years and if the money he has donated to Shor and Stoianoglo is from his official income it appears that he is using most of the money he makes supporting them. Asked for comment Mr. Apostol initially hung up on the journalists and later said that he simply paid for a friend’s vacation.
TV8 wrote about other links between Shor and Stoianoglo and found a quote given by Stoianoglo to a Russian TV program about Shor. He said:
"Me and Mr. Shor, with his family, have been living in the same building for more than 20 years. I know Mr. Shor since childhood. And his family - and mom and dad are real people. I have no way of having anything against the Shor family"
The 2 men do have apartments in the same building and Mr. Stoianoglo’s daughter, Cristina Stoianoglo also “bought” an apartment there in 2015 when she was 19 years old. The cost of the apartment was around $46,000 dollars. It is now the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation on illicit enrichment.
Interestingly, Politico reported today that Cristina Stoianoglo works in a cybersecurity role at the European Central Bank (ECB). The article questions why the daughter of a Kremlin supported anti-EU presidential candidate is allowed to work in a sensitive department at the ECB. It’s worth a read.
Back to TV8 the channel also reported that the former Deputy Minister of Defense, Igor Panfile, who was known to be a Shor activist in the past is now a senior figure in the Stoianoglo campaign. Finally, the report notes that while Prosecutor General Stoianoglo stopped ongoing criminal prosecutions against Shor associates Marina Tauber and Reghina Apostolova in the Theft of the Billion case. The prosecutor who signed the order, under Stoianoglo’s instructions, to drop the case was… Victoria Furtuna.
ZdG Infiltrated the Shor Team… Again.
Back in mid October we wrote about ZdG’s 3 month infiltration of the Shor network where an undercover reporter utilized a sophisticated fake identity to join up as an “activist.” We now know that this was only part 1 of the story. A different ZdG journalist went undercover at the same time, starting in June, in a different region. The purpose of a second journalist was apparently related to timing. ZdG revealed the first part of the investigation before the first round of voting but kept the second undercover journalist in place to track the impact of the first investigation and to understand what Shor’s plans were for the runoff.
The investigation showed similar networks and behaviors as the first as journalist Natalia Zaharescu, undercover as “Irina Zahar,” and tracked financing and payments - called “bonuses.” Ahead of the first round she was repeatedly told that the referendum was the primary target and some of the conversations show pretty clearly the kind rationalizations being used by the activists. In one case she was told:
"Vote for anyone. Because in this situation the referendum is important. The " against " stamp must be put on the referendum , so as not to change the Constitution. If the Constitution is changed, then we will have war for sure. Of course, we want to be in Europe, but Europe will take us after 2030, and these are just words in the wind. And she (Maia Sandu) is agitating for Europe. This referendum is not for European integration, but for amending the Constitution. And if she changes the Constitution, cancels the neutrality of the country, we will end up like Ukraine"
This tracks pretty closely some of the explanations in last week’s perspective article unpacking the wedging narratives Moscow used to attack the referendum.
Following the revelation of ZdG’s first investigation and heightened police activity after the referendum much of the Shor network went into a panic. One activist told “Irina Zahar:”
"I deleted almost all the photos from my phone. And I threw away everything I had at home [printed materials, fliers, etc]"
She said that “activists” spoke in whispered tones after the vote and many refused to be photographed at protests fearing consequences. When she revealed who she was to them many begged her not to release their photos and videos. When one activist was told that she would have her video released she said that she fears her children living in Romania and France will never speak to her again.
Regarding the second round she was told:
"The position of our Ilan Shor does not change at all. Anyone but Sandu. This is the most appropriate position. Do you understand?"
Importantly the Shor agents stressed that there should be no boycott, no spoiling of ballots - everyone needs to turn out and vote against Sandu.
Election Interference and Shor
Here’s a roundup of the other top stories in election interference and law enforcement efforts from the week:
The Public Services Agency (ASP)1 has suspended 40 employees for receiving Russian money via the PSB app. Three quarters of the suspended employees were located in Gagauzia and 4 of them were department heads. The agency announced that they were immediately suspended pending criminal investigations and because they “have access to the data from the critical state registers.”
Police detained 5 persons who were preparing acts of arson. All 5 were from Transnistria. The police tracked the group for a few days as they cased both the CEC office and the National Police Inspectorate office. They were detained before setting the doors of the CEC on fire and employees’ cars yesterday morning. Under questioning they admitted that they were promised $5,000 from a man named “Vladimir” in Moscow if they set cars and buildings on fire and recorded their work. This was confirmed via chats on their phones and seized accelerants and fire starting materials.
Officials from Bosnia and Herzegovina initially denied Moldovan reports that a Shor training camp was set up in their country. Police had alleged that Wagner linked figures trained selected Moldovans in drone piloting, releasing pyrotechnics by drone, small arms, “mass psychology” and “hand to hand combat.” After the US Embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina pushed the authorities to investigate, the country’s security services confirmed that there was in fact a training center in the Republic of Srpska.
Romanian G4media reports a TikTok campaign supporting Stoianoglo with local influencers. In the campaign the influencers, who all have more than a million subscribers, pretend to stumble on videos of Stoianoglo on their phones and declare that they like what they see about him. None of the accounts labeled the identical posts as paid promotions.
Police continue raids and searches of the Shor network. They seized a car that had been given to a Shor supporter and detained 11 more leaders of territorial organizations.
ZdG has tried to answer the question - what happens if a man under active criminal prosecution is elected president2? In their article they summarized the various criminal cases against Stoianoglo and asked experts what will happen to them if he wins? Technically the President has immunity from prosecution for actions taken during their term but there is no precedent dealing with ongoing cases for crimes prior to election. Parliament may bring charges against the president in the form of impeachment but this requires a 2/3 vote, after which the case would be tried in the Supreme Court of Justice. If convicted of a criminal charge the president is automatically removed from office. Alternatively, parliament may suspend the president if they decide that they have violated the constitution (a political decision rather than a criminal charge). The suspension also requires a 2/3 vote and if it is passed a referendum is required within 30 days on whether or not the president should be removed from power. The bottom line is that this is uncharted territory.
The ASP is a one stop shop for almost all government services for Moldovan citizens. Births, deaths, marriages, divorces, all go through the ASP. The agency has massive amounts of data about all citizens and residents in the country.
America called and is also curious.