Election Update: Shor's Candidate is...

October 19, 2024

Ilan Shor calls on voters to vote for “for any candidate OTHER THAN Sandu on October 20!” The announcement, made on X since literally every other social network has kicked him off, was broadcast to his 174 followers on the platform. He also called on everyone to vote “No” in the referendum.

At the same time, unverified screenshots have circulated purporting to be from Shor-linked regional Telegram groups that evaded the company’s ban of Shor. In them party members are instructed to vote for Alexandr Stoianoglo, the Socialist candidate, and to vote “No” in the referendum.

What Shor did or didn’t secretly communicate to his network of “activists” cannot be confirmed at the time of writing. He has 2 confirmed candidates in the race - Victoria Furtuna and Vasilie Tarlev. He did not instruct his voters to vote for either of them - to our knowledge. Likely there are many other candidates among the 11 total who would be acceptable to Moscow. We’ll have to wait until after the election to begin understanding what instructions were given in the final days.

The Last Pre-Election Polls are Out

Watchdog MD released a final set of pre-election polls this week showing modest changes over the last 3 months in the race but largely confirming the trajectory.

On the referendum the poll shows 55.1% for “Yes” and 34.5% for “No.” Since August this is a 3 point increase for Yes, and a 1.5 point decrease for No. The undecided vote has also fallen from 11% to 7.9%.

For the presidential election the polls are relatively consistent with past report but show a slight decrease for Stoianoglo’s support. Maia Sandu is supported by 35.8% of respondents followed by Stoianoglo by 9.0% and Usatii with 6.4% The number of undecided voters in the poll stands at 28.1% which is about a 5 point increase from last month indicating that a number of voters plan to make their minds up at the last minute.

Police and SIS report on Camps Training Young People in Violent Tactics

National Police Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu, SIS Director Alexandru Musteăța and interim director of the Prosecutor's Office for Combating Organized Crime and Special Cases Victor Furtună, announced a plot whereby Shor’s Eurasia NGO brought more than a hundred young people to Moscow under the guise of “cultural exchanges.” In reality they attended a conference training them in exploiting protests in order to create riots. Viorel Cernăuțeanu stated:

"There were teams of 30 people each, totaling more than 300 people, who went to the suburbs of the Russian Federation, where these people were prepared for various protests, the behaviors they must display, provocation tactics, the intelligent confrontation of the cordons, the evasion of objects from the law enforcement officers, how to intervene in the interventions of the law enforcement agencies"

The authorities released a video of the conference showing mock protests, plans to break police cordons, etc. Instructors were related to the former “Wagner” group and other private military companies. Some people were selected from this conference and sent for additional training in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. There they trained in drone piloting, releasing pyrotechnics by drone, small arms, “mass psychology” and “hand to hand combat.”

Screenshot of a the police / security services video showing the preparation of an incendiary device for use with drones. Source

On October 16th police conducted 88 searches across the country seizing 1.6 million lei, phones, computers, pre-made protest banners and shirts, bank cards, stolen e-signatures and tickets for Chisinau-Istanbul-Moscow flights. 4 Moldovan citizens who had been trained in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia were detained. Officials later released the names of Russians involved in the training process including multiple people already under international sanctions.

Other Shor / Election Interference News

Here’s a roundup of the Shor related news of the final days of the election:

• Deschide.md published a video of Shor “activists” including Marina Tauber discussing their payments. The video was of a zoom call that took place in August between Tauber and regional Shor groups. In it she explains that salaries for August are on their way and will be raised from previous amounts. Regional leaders are unhappy and confused about lack of payments for past months. Tauber states that "regions that did not manage to go to Moscow - they, too, will have the money transferred to the card" and ordered a region by region inventory of payments received sent to the “monitoring department.” When confronted with the video Tauber stated that the Shor group of parties has no candidate and is not officially registered in the election so this can’t be election interference. She says that Ilan Shor is a charitable benefactor to many people who are paid through his NGO.

• The Central Election Commission (CEC) has warned about the corruption of local election officials. The CEC chairwoman stated that "In connection with the information that has emerged about possible mass vote-buying, there are well-founded suspicions that election officials, members of election councils or bureaus may be involved in this." She called on the police to alert the CEC if election officials are among the 130,000 citizens known to be connected to that Shor network.

• Police continue to interdict Shor voter bribery schemes. 5 Shor “activists” were arrested following meetings where they offered voters money in exchange for votes. Police also made 2 arrests following the ZdG undercover report last week.

• News outlet CU Sens reported on an undercover investigation whereby one of their reporters was offered 400 lei to attend a meeting of the candidate Vasilie Tarlev. The journalist had connected with a known Shor agent who had previously arranged trips of Shor “activists” to Moscow. The agent offered 400 lei to attend the Tarlev event. Apparently all the attendees at Tarlev’s event were being paid by Shor’s network.

Prime Minister Recean Calls on Voters to Reject Foreign Influence

The Prime Minister Addressed the nation this week calling out foreign influence campaigns and asking voters not to become involved in illegal schemes. The Prime Minister stated:

“Dear citizens, as Prime Minister, I guarantee you that the institutions of the state will do their duty and protect your free vote and democratic processes, but it is up to you, dear citizens, to stop the attack on democracy. On Sunday, you make the choice - we go back to the past, alone, without development resources, vulnerable to challenges, or we go to the future, in the family of civilized countries, which help us modernize our country and live in peace, as we want. I trust that Moldovans will never allow themselves to be deceived and their fate to be dictated by dirty money and bought votes.

They want to sell our future, we, vote by vote, from Ocnița to Cahul, from Ungheni to Ștefan-Vodă, will defend the future of our children by voting, because we choose to live in freedom and peace. On Sunday, the power is with every citizen of our country, the power is with you, go to vote"

The Period of Silence

Saturday October 19th and Sunday October 20th are part of the days of silence before the election. According to national legislation it is prohibited to campaign on these days in any form - either for candidates or individuals. The campaign is over and the election is here. We’ll be back on Monday to update you on how it all turns out.