Weekly Roundup: Two Years of War
February 25th, 2024
Moldova Marks Two Years of War
Moldova’s political leadership released a joint video between President Sandu, Speaker of Parliament Grosu and Prime Minister Recean marking the 2 year anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. The video, which saw each politician address the camera interspersed with video clips of Russian attacks, Ukrainian refugees and Ukrainian resistance. In the video, President Sandu began the remarks saying:
"Today marks two years since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine, two years in which hospitals, kindergartens, shops, residential blocks, churches are bombed every day in the neighboring country. Today we mark two years of terror, but we also mark two years of resistance ,"…
"During these two years, Moldova understood firsthand the importance of peace and freedom. Moldova showed itself and the whole world that it chooses life and that it will always jump to the aid of those in need."
Citizens also marked the somber date with a march of hundreds of people carrying Moldovan and Ukrainian flags in Chisinau. Marchers began at the Grand National Assembly Square and marched to the Russian embassy chanting "Glory to Ukraine" "Glory to Heroes" and other slogans in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression.
Amidst rumors of brewing trouble in Transnistria and ongoing farmers protests and economic disruption the war has never been far from Moldova - either literally or in terms of the experience of citizens. As the world’s attention and support for Ukraine has waned it is always worth remembering what Moldovans know well - Ukraine is fighting for Moldova’s peace and existence.
Reactions to the Death of Alexei Navalny
In addition to the anniversary of the start of the war, many Moldovans mourned the death of Alexei Navalny and what his murder means about the future of Russia. In a statement following the news of his death President Sandu wrote:
“The death of Alexei Navalny in a Russian prison is a stark reminder of the regime’s horrific suppression of dissent. My sincere thoughts go out to his family, all democratic-minded Russians and those who bravely fight for freedom and democracy in Russia and abroad,”
Many political leaders made statements following the news, but Mayor Ceban’s was notable. The mayor called Navalny “an example” and praised him for his courage. But he followed this by condemning the statements made by President Sandu, Prime Minister Recean and others saying they “talk about violations that they themselves commit.” In his statement, the mayor mirrored Kremlin talking points about “state capture” in Moldova and also reflected Donald Trump’s attempt to compare himself to Navalny and allege political persecution. Responding to this statement, PAS MP Radu Marian stated:
“He didn’t say anything about Putin being to blame for Navalny’s death—not a single bad word about the owner from Moscow. Instead, he made ridiculous accusations against the government. He stated that the opposition in Moldova is allegedly being persecuted, although he, being an opposition politician, recently won the elections."
In addition to official statements, many people came to the Russian embassy to lay flowers. One of them, Russian citizen and journalist Ivan Svyatchenko, burned his Russian passport in front of the embassy. Asked why he was doing it he stated:
“The new president of the Russian Federation will issue me a new passport. Russia will be free, I really hope so. Alexey Navalny spoke exactly about this,”
International Affairs and Security News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top news this week in international affairs and security:
A Delegation from the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee visited Chisinau. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D - NH) and Chris Murphy (D - CT) met with President Sandu and Prime Minister Recean during their visit. They spoke of the importance of continued reform in energy security, justice reform and anti-corruption efforts.
Author’s Note: It is important to understand just how unusual this visit is in its composition. Until recently, US congressional delegations to Moldova tended to be completely made up of Republican. The Republican party traditionally focused a lot of time on Eastern Europe and security questions while the Democratic party did not. That meant Republican congressmen visiting Moldova and Moldovan delegations in DC interacting far more with Republicans than with Democrats. This has now changed significantly, though not due to any decisions made in Moldova.
The European Union announced sanctions against 6 individuals and 1 organization for “actions aimed at destabilizing Moldova.” Sanctions included the deputy head of the FSB, Dmitri Miliutin, who allegedly coordinated covert operations in Moldova and especially in Transnistria since 2016. Other sanctioned individuals include 2 people associated with Shor affiliated media and multiple others associated with Shor businesses. The Moldovan leadership welcomed the sanctions and thanked the EU for supporting Moldova.
The United States announced sanctions against Marina Tauber. The announcement states that she is being sanctioned "for facilitating the attempts of the convicted fugitive oligarch Ilan Şor to undermine the electoral processes in Moldova in the interests of the Kremlin by illegally buying votes." Another Moldovan citizen named Valery Kopeikin, who allegedly works in a military-industrial capacity supporting the Russian armed forces, was also sanctioned. Both Tauber and Kopeikin face a travel ban, asset freeze, ban on transactions within the US and with American citizens and more. President Sandu welcomed the sanctions and thanked the US for “decisive action” in supporting Moldova.
The Chernivtsi regional government in Ukraine has barred men aged 18-60 from approaching within 5 kilometers of the Moldovan or Romanian borders. The move is designed to help crack down on men illegally fleeing the country to avoid conscription. This week Moldovan border guards detained 8 Ukrainian men after shots were heard on the Ukrainian side of the border. The men collectively paid more than $50,000 to smugglers to get across. Border police estimate that around 15,000 Ukrainian men have illegally crossed the border since the beginning of the war. Many are detained by border patrols after crossing and others are caught when trying to leave for Romania without an entry stamp. Almost all request asylum which Moldova generally grants. 319 criminal cases have been opened since the beginning of the war, mostly for people smuggling. Of those 236 cases were against Moldovans including 24 border guards.
Political Updates
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top political news of the week week:
President Sandu announced that she will donate her 30,000 euro prize to the NGO Prietena Mea. The plan for the prize money had drawn controversy as people asked and speculated about what would become of the money. President Sandu announced that the money would be directly transferred from Timisoara to the NGO, she explained her choice of donation saying:
“The Prietena Mea Community Association is the voice of children with Down syndrome. The organization helps their social integration so that they can live in harmonious families and communities. Every child needs the love of the people around him to grow, develop and be happy,”
New details in the corruption case against Alexey Perchemly. The controversial, newly elected, PAS mayor of Bubuieci is alleged to have demanded (and received) a 2000 euro bribe promising a person a job in the security service SIS in 2017. He allegedly also took an 11,000 euro and 30,000 lei bribe to influence the outcome of an anti-corruption prosecution. The newly elected mayor maintains his innocence. PAS has not commented on the allegations.
RISE Moldova has reported that former PD deputy Constantin Țuțu changed his name to Andrie Sîli in Romania. The deputy, closely associated with Plahotniuc, changed his name in Romania but not in Moldova where he is currently on trial for accepting a 20,000 euro bribe to influence judges in a court case. He is also on trial for “hooliganism” in relation to a murder case. It’s previously been reported that Plahotniuc himself recieved passports and other documents under different names in Romania, and that his son, Timofei Plahotniuc, changed his name in Romania to Timofei Parvan in late 2020.
Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has met with PSDE leadership in Bucharest. The “European Social Democratic Party of Moldova” PSDE was formerly known as the “Party of Democrats” when it was led by fugitive oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc. The Romanian Prime Minister, leader of the Romanian Social Democratic Party (PSD), stated that he supports Maia Sandu but that Moldova “needs a strong center-left social democratic party.”
Analysis: It is important to realize that “right” and “left” do not have the same meanings in Moldova as they do in more developed political systems. I wrote about this back in 2021 in an article entitled “Explainer: Does Moldova have “Left” and “Right” Wing Parties?” While the article spends less time than we would now discussing the Shor party, which was less relevant in 2021, the basic conclusion stands - Moldova does not have ideological parties on economic issues. This rules out the supposed ideological reasons for this support. Further, the PSDE has absolutely zero leadership with national name recognition - they do however maintain a strong regional party network. The moves of the Romanian PSD party to affiliate closer with PSDE seems to bolster growing rumors that Mayor Ceban’s MAN party will form an alliance with PSDE for upcoming elections. MAN has a charismatic leader, but no regional organization and PSDE has the opposite. With Romanian support this combination could prove a challenge to Maia Sandu and PAS in coming elections.
Parliament proposes laws to support Air Moldova ticket holders. The proposed amendments to the insolvency law would move ticket holders of bankrupt airlines from near the back of the queue to near the front for reimbursement after liquidation. Currently 75,000 tickets valued at over 9 million euros bought a year ago have not been reimbursed. Also this week the Civil Aviation Authority revoked the air carrier certification of Air Moldova.
3 men have been detained for setting fires at a Ukrainian refugee center. The men were detained in the town of Congaz in Gagauzia and are suspected of “ordering” the arson. The alleged arsonists set fire to the doors of the refugee center and 3 cars belonging to Ukrainians. They also spray painted "AFARA" (Romanian for “outside” or “get out”) on the building and cars. The refugee center is located in Vulcanesti over 60km from Congaz. Police and officers of the southern FULGER police special forces participated in the arrests and searches. No motive has been given for the arson, though it is worth noting the arrest of the men in their homes very distant from the arson attack. Also, that very few people in Gagauzia speak Romanian making the spray painting of “afara” on the building and cars notable. The men are charged with arson and inciting hatred and face up to 9 years in prison.
Parliament has announced 2 new memorial days related to the 1992 War with Transnistria. March 14th - "Day of Remembrance of those who fell in Cosnita in 1992" and June 19th - “Day of Remembrance of those who fell in the 1992 armed conflict in the battles in Varnita-Tighina.” The days are meant to commemorate the heroes of these battles. They will not be public holidays but national days of remembrance.
Farmers continue protests. On February 15th police announced that an ambulance was unable to get to a man having a heart attack at the border crossing due to roads blocked by tractors. Police were able to evacuate the man to the ambulance and he is recovering in the hospital. Leaders of the “Farmers Power” association called the announcement an “attempt to influence public opinion” and speculated that the whole event had been staged. Farmers met with the Prime Minister on February 20th at which meeting they were offered a new urgent working capital loan program of 500,000 lei per farming enterprise. The government backed loan on good terms is meant to bridge farmers and allow them to plant crops. Farmers have continued to protest and block border points following this offer.