Weekly Roundup Part 1: Election Updates and New Candidates
July 18th, 2024
Hi Moldova Matters readers! This week there has been a veritable avalanche of news in Moldova (and around the world for that matter) and there’s no way to pack it all into one article. As such this is Part 1 of 2 of this week’s roundup. In Part 1 we will cover political and election updates and more. Part 2 will focus on the (frankly insane) recent stories regarding criminals, a public murder / hit and a Neo-Nazi named “Commander Butcher.” So don’t miss tomorrow’s article.
Presidential Election Updates
This week the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the official election schedule for this fall. The “election period” begins on August 1st at which point prospective candidates will begin gathering signatures and preparing their campaigns. Candidate registration begins on August 21st and the beginning of the campaign will be on September 20th, 1 month before the election on October 20th.
As the official campaign period nears, more candidates have begun to announce their intention to run in the elections.
Irina Vlah
This week former Bashkan of Gagauzia Irina Vlah announced that she would run for president as an independent. In her announcement speech she stated that her “election program will focus strictly on the concrete problems of the people.” She did not give much of a preview as to what those problems, or her proposed solutions, might be, but instead pivoted to attacking President Sandu and PAS saying that the government is "preparing for war." While she does not explain what she means by this phrase, she has clearly indicated that she does not blame Russia for the threats of war, but instead blames the current government and European nations.
Irina Vlah began her career in the Pro-Russian Communist Party and later supported the Socialist Party and Igor Dodon’s presidential candidacy, but was not a party member. In her past campaigns she regularly featured pictures of herself with Vladimir Putin and advocated a strong pro-Russian orientation for Moldova. Recently she has declared herself pro-European and has learned Romanian which she now uses in her speeches. Vlah has not indicated a position on the referendum on EU membership yet.
Natalia Morari
The next candidate to appear is disgraced former TV news anchor Natalia Morari. In her announcement speech she stated that she has dedicated the last 15 years, referring to her journalism career, to "fighting evil.” She went on to comment on her past support for President Sandu and PAS saying "I made a mistake with you and brought to power those who are destroying our country today. I want to correct this mistake."
Natalia Morari’s political “journey” is a bit too complex to summarize in this weekly roundup. She was known as a crusading anti-corruption and anti-Plahotniuc journalist until September 2021 when it was revealed that she had a son with wanted oligarch Veaceslav Platon. We covered this explosive story and her catastrophic fall from grace in 2 articles back at that time (article one, article two). Since that time, Moldova’s best known anti-corruption journalist has evolved into an explicitly anti-PAS and anti-Maia Sandu online figure. She has moved away from being a pro-European figure and worked with Igor Dodon last month in an effort to find a common candidate for president. It’s unclear how Morari will position herself regarding Europe or the referendum in this election. What is clear is that her message will be well funded. A new report from Watchdog.md has shown that Platon spent 25,000 euros in advertising on facebook alone last month - much of it to promote Morari. Other promoted messages alleged censorship by the government and opposed the EU referendum. This only totals up his facebook spending. Platon is also known as one of the largest political advertisers on Youtube in Moldova since Google turned on monetization earlier this year.
Platon is wanted in Moldova for a wide variety of criminal cases and is currently living openly in the UK. He has been sanctioned by the Canadian government for his role in attempting to destabilize the government of Moldova but not the US, UK or EU.
Stoianoglo Settles into the Race
Meanwhile, any plans the Socialists may have had to rally support behind Alexandr Stoianoglo as a common candidate of the opposition have collapsed. Igor Dodon’s planned meeting of opposition parties last week did not take place and the declarations of additional candidates has indicated that Stoianoglo is now firmly just the candidate of the Socialist Party. His positions on key issues remain unclear including the referendum, European integration and the war in Ukraine. Responding to a question about the “Moldovan” vs the Romanian language, Stoianoglo hedged saying that they are the same language but that what people call it is a personal choice.
Commenting on his nomination by the Socialists, President Sandu said "The oligarchs and the Kremlin have reached an agreement and found a candidate."
Political scientists are somewhat split on what the Socialists are doing here. As we will see below, polls do not indicate that Mr. Stoianoglo is a strong candidate for their party (unlike Mr. Dodon). Some have suggested that by nominating a candidate with multiple ongoing criminal trials, links to Platon and very low name ID there is a kind of sideways strategy by the Socialists to depress their own voter turnout to damage the referendum. Doctor of Political Sciences Angela Kolatski, speaking to Newsmaker said that the Kremlin "does not need a victory." She went on to say that the Kremlin has already decided that the victory of a pro-Russian candidate in the presidential elections is unlikely and that the goal is to destabilize the situation and prevent a pro-European majority in the next parliamentary elections.
Whatever the strategy, a new set of polls shows a tough road ahead for pro-Russian, pro-oligarch candidates.
IRI’s Latest Poll
The International Republican Institute (IRI)1 has released their latest set of polls of the Moldovan electorate. You can follow this link for the full results in English.
Here are some top line results as they pertain to the presidential race. The overall poll is a bit too long to dig into here but I would encourage interested readers to read through it themselves.
Voting Intention: 90% of adults polled say that they are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote this fall.
Right Track / Wrong Track: 41% of respondents say that the country is on the right track (54% wrong track). This is 1 point down from July 2023’s all time high of 42% right track. Moldovan voters tend to not to be very optimistic on this score, so the overall negative number is less notable than the general upward trend since 2022.
Presidential Approval: 45% of respondents strongly or somewhat approve of the job of Maia Sandu as President. 53% disapprove or strongly disapprove. This number is 6 points up for the president since February 2024 but 1 point down since July 2023 (within the margin of error).2
Voter’s First Choice if the Presidential Election were held tomorrow: 34% of respondents would vote for President Sandu. 18% would select Igor Dodon and no other candidate got more than 5%. Of the declared candidates Irina Vlah is the strongest with 4% of respondents selecting her.3
EU Referendum: 53% of respondents plan to vote “yes” in the referendum compared to 36% who plan to vote “no.” 6% said that they would not vote / boycott.
It is important to remember that these polls were conducted among Moldovan residents excluding citizens residing in Transnistria or in the diaspora.4
Based on this and past polling Igor Dodon is clearly the top contender to run against President Maia Sandu. While it is not clear that he could win the race, it is notable that he has maintained a substantial and consistent level of support over time. Stoianoglo was not declared at the time of this poll, but Igor Dodon had been promoting him as a potential candidate for months. It is unclear whether or not Dodon’s name ID and general public support will transfer to a new candidate.
Moldova Faces an Unprecedented Heat Wave
Over the last week Moldova has faced an unprecedented heat wave across the majority of the country. Code Red heat warnings were declared from July 12 - 17 and the authorities warned of an “exceptional risk of fire” during the week of July 10 - 15.
Temperatures have soared to highs of 42 C (107 F) and have stayed unusually high at night as well. The Ministry of the Environment has called on citizens and companies to conserve water as multiple rivers around the country are showing rapidly decreasing water levels. The Ministry of Education has called for the suspending of sports practices between the hours and 10 and 5 pm, and the “mayor” of Tiraspol called on companies to curtail working hours due to the heat.
High temperatures have caused significant road damage around the country on concrete roads (locally called “betonka” roads). Concrete slaps expanding pop up creating large holes or ramps which need to be removed and replaced. Additionally, plastic recycling dumpsters around Chisinau have melted in some areas.
Prime Minister Recean announced on July 17th that 120 hectares of land have been destroyed by forrest and field fires in the past few days. The Prime Minster commended the fire departments for managing these fires and called on citizens to follow fire safety rules and reduce water use.
In one case a forrest fire near Cahul burned around 10 hectares of forrest before the fire brigade got it under control. During the fire the town mayor made a public call for assistance with the fire posting on his facebook saying:
"There is a forest fire in the area of Lake Frumoasa. Please, all men who can help put out the fire, come to this area. We urgently need help,"
Hot summers are not new to Moldova but this heat wave is unprecedented. Normally temperatures may exceed 40 C (104 F) a few days during the summer season. A multi-week heat wave such as this and corresponding drought are something new that has challenged both emergency responders and a population that largely does not have air conditioning.
Director of the Farmer's Power association, Alexandru Badarau, has called on the government to declare a state of emergency due to heat and drought. The association is asking that late penalties on loan payments for farmers be paused or deferred. The Ministry of Agriculture has rejected this call saying that current law provides for mechanisms by which farmers can declare force majeure and suspend loan payments and penalties without the need for a state of emergency.5
Temperatures are expected to fall slightly by the weekend but a yellow code for heat and fire warnings remain in place through next week.
Other Political News
Here’s a roundup of the other top politics stories of the week:
Parliament passes an anti-voter bribery law in the first reading: The law provides for fines of 25,000 to 37,500 lei for voters who take money, goods, alcohol, services tobacco or food in exchange for their votes. The law exempts party promotional items such as flags, hats, pens, etc with a value of less than 100 lei. The law passed with a 69 vote majority of MPs from PAS and the Communist and Socialist Block.
Church Schism updates: Last November I wrote an article about the growing schism in the Moldovan Orthodox Church and series of defections by priests and congregations to the Bessarabian Metropolis from Romania. This week the NYTimes published an excellent article that dives deep into the schism and conducts on the ground reporting with priests and parishioners discussing the slow burning crisis. It’s highly worth reading.
Ukraine has announced an end to Daylight savings time. On October 27th Ukraine will transition from Daylight Savings Time (summer time) to Standard Time (winter time) for the last time. They will maintain Standard Time year round in the future which will result in brighter mornings and darker evenings.6 For context, in 2018 the EU Commission recommended that EU members abandon winter / summer time transitions by 2021. Few countries did so and the effort has now been suspended. Moldova last considered this change under the Gavrilita government in October 2021 where they decided to put off the decision and continue time changes. Ukraine’s decision will put additional pressure on Moldova which will find itself with a time change when traveling to Ukraine if the country doesn’t follow, or a time change traveling to Romania if it does.
Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi attended the NATO Summit in Washington DC last week. At the summit the Minister was a speaker on a panel titled "NATO Partnerships." He reiterated Moldova’s calls for support for Ukraine, but also that Moldova does not currently have popular support for joining NATO and will remain constitutionally neutral.
President Maia Sandu is attending the European Political Community Summit in the UK from July 17 - 18th. At the summit she will join French President Macron in leading a working group on protecting democracy. Following the summit the President will travel to Dublin and meet with the Irish President Michael Daniel Higgins and Taoiseach Simon Harris.
Deputy Prime Minster for European Integration Cristina Gerasimov traveled to Kyiv this week. While there she visited the site of the Russian bombing of the country’s primary children’s hospital and was informed by the director that a Moldovan child was on an operating table at the time of the strike. The child survived the attack and is now out of danger. 627 children were in the hospital at the time of the strike where at least 31 people were killed and 127 injured.
Economics and Infrastructure News
Here’s a roundup of the top stories in economics and infrastructure from this week:
The Romanian Commodity Exchange will expand to Moldova. Minister of the Economy Dumitru Alaiba announced the news in a joint press conference with the head of the exchange saying that the new Chisinau based exchange will become operational in the coming weeks. A wide range of commodities will be available on the new exchange including natural gas, construction materials, agricultural products and other fuels. The Minister stated that this news represents an important step for Moldova’s European integration and will allow new investment to flow into the country.
South Korean company “Sundoogiup” has announced the opening of "a factory for the production of organic mineral fertilizers" in Moldova. The company will invest 5 million euros in the creation of this new factors, an investment hailed by the Ministry of Economy as a further sign of Moldova’s economic recovery.
Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced that the country is considering purchasing Moldovan electrical utility Red Nord. Last August Moldova’s Minister of Energy Victor Parlikov had announced that the government was preparing the northern electrical utilities Red Nord and FEE Nord for privatization. The Minister welcomed Romania’s interest but stressed that his ministry is not in charge of privatizations and that this is only “interest” at this point. The Romanian Prime Minister explained the interest saying that while the country produces more power than it consumes and has a major distribution network it lacks storage facilities for load balancing. He cited the expansion into Moldova as a potential mechanism to strengthen the Romanian grid. Meanwhile, Moldova has set a goal of being fully integrated into a common grid with Romania by 2029.
That’s it for today! Keep an eye on your inbox tomorrow for Part 2 of this week’s roundup where we will cover the various (and frankly insane) stories in Moldova related to crime, corruption and justice.
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IRI is known as one of the highest quality pollsters operating in Moldova. They typically release 2 large polls a year and ask a number of questions related to politics, security, economics and life in Moldova.
It’s worth noting that there is a clear trend in the data showing greater dissatisfaction among voters across the board when they are polled in the winter vs the summer. This can likely be attributed to the rising costs of energy in the last 2 winters. In this context it is worth noting that the presidential election and referendum are being held in the fall before winter sentiments set in and the presumed date for the next parliamentary election is July 2025.
The poll was conducted between May 23 and June 13. Questions about the presidential race were open ended with respondents volunteering potential candidates. Morari and Stoianoglo were not declared at that time and apparently no voters suggested them.
This polling does not include the diaspora. This poll, and really all polls released in Moldova, focus on citizens currently residing in the country. This is important because the diaspora makes up a significant portion of voters (14.34% in the 2021 Parliamentary Elections, 10.96% in the first round of the 2020 Presidential Elections and 15.91% in the second round). In those last 2 elections diaspora voters strongly supported PAS (85.98% in the 2021 parliamentary elections), Maia Sandu (69.73% in the 2020 first round presidential and 92.56% in the second round) and by proxy of these results they support European Integration. This all means that a large pro-EU block is not being counted in most (or all) opinion polling.
The process for declaring Force Majeure in Moldova is not necessarily straightforward. Business owners need to approach the local branch of the Chamber of Commerce and bring them documentation to prove that such an exceptional circumstance exists. There is not yet reporting on how this is working in the current situation, but it is worth noting that these certificates were not issued during COVID to companies that were forced to close their doors and still needed to pay rent. So the burden of proof is rather high.
Sunrise in Moldova / much of Ukraine today was at 5:26 am. Under this new plan that would move to 4:26 am. Sunset in Moldova is now 8:54 pm, it will be moved up to 7:54 pm.
Great, important work, David. Thank you.