Weekly Roundup - Elections are Tomorrow
July 7 - July 10
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! As we explained Wednesday, there has been so much news in this last week leading up to the election on Sunday, we decided to post a Midweek Update and to split the roundup in 2 parts. If you haven’t read the Midweek Update yet it would be a good idea to go and read that first.
In this Weekly Roundup, the focus will be on election related news. Next week, we’ll try and catch up on other important news that got a bit drowned out by all the election updates.
A Drama Filled Last Week of Campaigning
PAS Chooses “Not to Debate Thieves”
As we have discussed in past Weekly Roundups, there are ongoing television debates where each of the parties or independent candidates on the ballot gets equal time. This week, PAS was scheduled for one of these debates and once again Mr. Platon showed up to speak for the independent candidate Vyacheslav Valko. Olesea Stamate, former Minister of Justice who was representing PAS directed her opening statement directly at the alleged gangster saying "we have nothing to discuss with thieves and the corrupt. I urge you to go to the polls. People like this are on TV when their real place is in Prison." Then she literally dropped the mic and walked out. Mr. Platon spent a portion of the rest of the debate eating cucumbers and hard boiled eggs on stage with a candidate from a minor party.
At the same time, the Socialists challenged PAS to a one on one debate outside of the TV format on Thursday. After considering the invitation, PAS representative Mihai Popshoi responded that PAS would not attend and that "the people only have 1 question for the Socialists - what was in the bag?" The reference being to a filmed incident where a plastic bag was given by Mr. Plahotnuic to Mr. Dodon. This is widely believed to contain a cash bribe. The Socialists responded by showing up and debating with an empty chair.
So Why is PAS Avoiding Debates?
Short answer, they aren’t. PAS did multiple rounds of other TV debates with various parties. These 2 incidents were very strategic. Appearing on stage trying to make salient political points while an alleged gangster like Platon eats cucumbers is not a good look. Specifically, it seems that PAS calculated that any debates like this were designed to pull them down into the mud and so they just skipped them. This tactic worked insofar as the main story in the press was standing up to Platon while the Socialists talking to the chair barely received any coverage at all.
A Last Minute Attempt to Sabotage the Elections?
This week, the Interim Government was scheduled to meet in order to allocate 22.5 million lei to the Central Election Commission (CEC) in order to fully fund the election. At the meeting, the Interim Prime Minister and the Baskhan (Governor) of Gagauzia were the only cabinet ministers to actually show up, leaving the meeting without a quorum to allocate the money. This means that the CEC falls short of the required funding to actually pay the staff responsible for conducting the election. Multiple ministers claimed to be sick and some did not provide any explanation and simply refused comment. A local media site, Newsmaker, reported that sources informed them that this was orchestrated by Mr. Dodon intentionally in order to deny funding and damage the credibility of the election. Recall, Mr. Dodon has said in the past on multiple occasions that there *may* be problems funding the election. Given that the Interim Government is the remnants of the Socialist appointed Chicu Government from last year this can be taken more as a threat than a prediction. It’s unclear what real effect this will have as the CEC has claimed that they will be able to conduct the election even without the funding, and the Interim Prime Minister stated that in the worst case they will allocate the money right after the election. Given that state employees are sometimes used to being paid months late (for example, the Moldova State Railways) this may not have much of an effect. We’ll have to see.
Release of “Kompromat”
Compromising material used for blackmail or embarrassing leaks is a common election tactic in the former Soviet space. Here it is referred to as “Kompromat.” This week, someone released a video of Mr. Dodon using a hunting rifle to shoot pigs in a pen. In the video, a man who is clearly Mr. Dodon smiles and laughs and someone instructs him to shoot the pigs which are quite clearly helpless and milling around the pen. In response to the video release, the Socialists said that the video was doctored or a “deep fake” and that Mr. Dodon is an “honest hunter” who would not do something so unsportsmanlike. No real reporting was released on the authenticity of the video either way, but taken on face value it’s not a good look. If you want to watch yourself and judge the validity the video is at this link. In any case, the timing and release of the video was clearly meant to embarrass the former President and further tarnish his image right before the election.
Chisinau Appeals Court Limits Polling Places for Transnistria
Responding to a lawsuit by the Platforma DA Party, the Chisinau Appeals Court ruled that the CEC’s decision to open 42 polling places for Transnistria was excessive. The Appeals Court instructed CEC only to open 12 polling locations. The Socialists expressed outrage at this ruling claiming the court was restricting citizens’ right to vote and telling their supporters to be ready to take to the streets and contest the election. Meanwhile the CEC appealed the decision to the Supreme Court of Justice but it is unclear if they can rule in a timely manner. Speaking before the justification for the ruling was released, PAS Representatives said that they support every citizen’s right to vote but cannot comment further without understanding the ruling better. When published, the full text of the ruling stated that the law stipulates that polling places must be able to accommodate a turnout of 106% of registered voters in a region. Mathematically, this means that the Transnestrian population should have 11.5 polling places - hence, their ruling to open 12. Simply put, the Court said the previous CEC determination to open 42 polling places had neither sense in the law nor in mathematical reality. Even so, this decision is likely to fuel any contesting of the election or protests that the Socialists might organize. .
Updates on the PAS New Europe Story
As we discussed in the Midweek Update, a European news site called “New Europe” published a story claiming that US and EU countries funneled over 56 million dollars to support PAS in this election. We noted serious problems with the credibility of this news site in the Midweek Update and further reporting has also called New Europe into question. When asked why they did not publish the story, local investigative site ZdG responded “a portal praising Plahotniuc and Sor is not a credible source, even if it is called New Europe. Try again.” They linked to numerous past stories New Europe did about Moldova strongly praising Mr. Plahotniuc and Mr. Shor. So it seems that this story can be put to bed unless new information comes out.
New Reporting on Kremlin Funding of the Socialist Party
This week, a story by the EU Reporter also came out detailing an investigation into the Kremlin’s illegal funding of the Socialist Party in the last month of the election. The reporting was based on pictures of a smartphone purporting to have leaked from within the Socialist party. These pictures, showing the phone on a table and various documents on the screen show messages between Igor Dodon and Russian Oligarch Igor Chaika. Chaika is a business associate of Mr. Dodon’s brother, and owns numerous media companies in Moldova. Primarily, the pictures were of financial reports on the conduct of the election which EU Reporter translated to English and uploaded in their entirety (links below). Firstly, let’s take a look at the planned expenses and activities and then drill a bit more into the reporting itself.
Election Plans and Budgets
During this last period in the election, the spending report shows detailed budgeting totaling 4.2 million euros for various activities including the following:
Mobile campaign groups of staffers (who they call agitators) as well as cars, tents, banners, transportation, printed materials (t-shirts, hats, bandanas, etc) totaling 2.2 million euros
Audio vision materials for internet and TV. They note the high cost of traditional media and a focus on social media. This includes 25,000-30,000 euro / week on social media posts
Rallies for Victory Day and for the marches supporting the "Traditional Family" (40,000 and 30,000 euros respectively)
Polls and focus groups (100,000 euros)
Concerts and festivals 154,000 euros
Party operating expenses
Controlled media outlets 130,000 euros
….and more. The report concludes saying that they have spent 2.2 million euros, received 4.0 million euros and have 1.8 million euros cash on hand.
Additionally, a document detailing the online marketing strategy including social media targeting, ad placements on websites and more was leaked.
Interestingly, the report details substantial spending allocated to election day itself totaling 2.7 million euros. Some of this money is allocated to normal(ish) ideas like voter mobilization and organizing transport, but it also lists paying "friendly" election observers and members of electoral commissions.
But the bulk of the money allocated to the election day itself is not explained or itemized. It is simply listed as follows:
1 million euros for Transnistria
1.5 million euros for “Morkovka”
“Morkovka” literally means “carrot” in Russian but in slang terms translates to “bribery” or to influence by fraud. The reporting suggests that all of this money was sourced from the FSB and moved through Igor Chika’s companies into Socialist illicit election funds. The EU Reporter concludes the report by suggesting that Russia’s interest in Moldova is actually less geopolitical than it seems on face value and more financial. The FSB has used Moldova as a financial vehicle for laundered money in the past and has its own vital financial interest in preventing a reformist government coming to power.
How Credible is the EU Reporter Article?
So, the first thing to note is that unlike New Europe, the EU Reporter is a known and decently well respected publication. It is not a major news site in Europe but it is a known and “real” site. Their reporting in this case is based totally on screenshots taken of what seems to be Mr. Dodon’s phone (or a clone) though they claim to have verified the information through multiple sources. The idea that someone could access Mr. Dodon’s phone is in itself very credible because it happened before. Back in 2015 RISE Moldova obtained a cloned copy of his phone and reported extensively on the messages and interactions between him and Kremlin linked figures. In these exchanges, Mr. Dodon went by the pseudonym “Kremlinovich.” Given this information, the details of the documents listed, and the past reporting from Bild outlining the Kremlin’s almost identical illegal financing in the November Presidential elections, this report seems quite credible.
Taking a Step Back - How does all this fit together?
While we don’t have too much time in a Weekly Roundup to do a deep dive into all this illegal financing reporting, it is worth taking a step back and looking at this in the context of information warfare operations. We have 3 stories from the last month detailing foriegn financial influence in the election.
Bild - detailed report on the Kremlin's funding of Mr. Dodon in the November 2020 Presidential Elections. Source: leaked documents from Moldova’s Security and Information Service SIS (published in the report). Published June 26.
New Europe - report on EU and US funding of PAS in the Parliamentary Elections. Source: documents from the secret services of an EU member (not published in the report). Published July 4th.
EU Reporter - report on Kremlin funding to the Socialists in the Parliamentary Elections. Source: photos of Mr. Dodon’s phone, uploaded in Russian and made available as documents in English. Published July 8th.
Now, based on reporting in Moldova, the stories from Bild and the EU Reporter are generally deemed as credible while the story from New Europe demonstrably has issues. If we accept that as fact, there are still more questions than answers. Why were SIS documents leaked to Bild so they could write a German language story? Keep in mind, the Bild story was a warning to Germans that they need to defend their own elections more than a story written for Moldova. And why leak photos to the EU Reporter and not Politico, Radio Free Europe or the BBC? Or perhaps a more well known investigative outlet like RISE in Moldova?
To speculate a moment, and keep our lens on the idea of “information warfare,” one possible answer is timing. The Bild piece was timed weeks before the election and softened up the ground for the more relevant EU Reporter piece to drop right on the eve of the vote. The timing of these leaks indicates that they were done for electoral advantage. Perhaps the news outlets were selected because they were willing to cooperate with this timeline, or simply were known to publish quickly. Meanwhile, we can easily see how the New Europe article attacking PAS might be construed as a simple response to the Bild article and an attempt to muddy the waters and play a round of “whataboutism.”
Whatever the case, and whatever the credibility behind the various reports, it is very clear that forces inside and outside Moldova are conducting information operations intending to sway the vote one way or another.
Ending on a High Note!
This week the high note is that the week is ending! After quite a wild ride we have made it to Saturday which is the legally appointed “day of silence” where all campaigning is banned before the election. This campaign has been unlike anything else in Moldova’s modern political history. The number of volunteers and grassroots engagement has been extremely encouraging and heartening while the attacks, scaremongering (remember Nato attacking with hordes of Black Children?) and information warfare have been quite a lot to handle. Tomorrow is the vote and Moldovans across the country and around the world will have their chance to make their voices heard. It will be one of the most consequential elections in the history of this young country, so stay tuned for updates next week from Moldova Matters where we will break down the results and discuss the implications for Moldova’s future.
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