Weekly Roundup
June 21 - June 25
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Elections Roundup
Russian Election Interference
The German newspaper Bild has released a stunning report on Russian attempts to sway the 2020 Moldovan Presidential Election in favor of Igor Dodon of the Socialist Party. Bild received detailed information on the Russian electoral interference campaign from a document leaked from the Moldovan Security and Information Service (SIS - like Moldova’s FBI and CIA in one). This document showed that the Kremlin invested 11.453 million euros of illicit financing into the campaign. This expenditure is itemized including 4 million euro as bribes to “friendly candidates;” 528,000 euro for propaganda / “media projects;” 393,000 euro for election observers who would whitewash the election and claim it was “clean;” and 500,000 euros for the Moldovan Central Election Commission's “processing work.” The last of these we can read as direct ballot stuffing. SIS became aware of these efforts in summer 2020 and was able to intervene and stop many Russian plans. But as RISE Moldova noted in a previous investigative article, a number of identified Kremlin agents attached themselves to Mr. Dodon’s campaign during the fall and spent time at the Socialist Party offices and campaign events. Maia Sandu beat Igor Dodon 57% to 43% in the election last November showing a rather bad investment for the Kremlin’s money. But Bild reported the article with an eye to just how pervasive the Kremlin attempts to sway the election were… and how Moldova and even Germany should take note and defend their general elections.
For a flavor of how this money would be spent, Bild reported on the following planned “activities”
Project “Adolf” - the creation of a prominent political figure or commentator who was flagrantly anti-Russian. This person would be a right wing extremist (hence project “adolf”) and would insult and tear down all political candidates other than Maia Sandu. The desired outcome was to “disgust pro-European voters and depress the vote.” They budgeted for 4 facebook video clips per month. They budgeted 10,000 euros per month for actors, camera crews and for their little “Adolf.”
Project Boring - this would involve the creation of another personality who would be openly Pro-EU. They hoped to recruit someone prominent, a “well-known, pro-European” actor, “perhaps a nightclub owner” who would be able to get on national talk shows. This person would criticize all pro-EU candidates (while nominally supporting their goals) but especially Maia Sandu. The goal would be to dishearten the pro-EU electorate such that they would stop believing anyone would follow through on their promises. The budget was 10,000 euros per month and planned 4 videos per month.
Project Creamy Moldova - this project was for the creation of a telegram channel that would broadcast 80% real news and 20% fake news designed to damage citizen’s trust in politics. The channel would be critical of the Socialists initially but would pivot late into the election claiming that only a “strong leader” would be sufficient to bring the country out of crisis. Naturally, this would be Mr. Dodon.
Project “Maidan” - this project was meant to recruit busloads of staunchly anti-Russian Ukrainians from western Ukraine and bus them to Chisinau on the eve of the elections. The goal would be to announce that there was a western backed coup afoot and to galvanize the pro-Russian vote.
Many more projects were outlined in the documents including using bomb threats against polling locations to allow infiltrators to go in and stuff ballots. These projects were designed to use Russian state funds, illegally spent in Moldova, to elect Mr. Dodon to a second term. It is unclear how many projects got off the ground and how many SIS managed to thwart. But one thing is clear, the Kremlin is determined to support their candidate in Moldova with serious finances and “election expertise” (Russia style).
It is important to note that the Socialist Party and Mr. Dodon deny all of these accusations and are considering a lawsuit against Bilt.
Finally, it’s interesting to note, that in summer 2020 Renato Usati filed a petition with the Central Election Commission to disqualify Mr. Dodon because Usati claimed Dodon had received “over 11 million euros from Russia.” Mr. Usati is often called the “most informed man in Moldova” but he was unable to prove this claim at the time. By coincidence, or because his sources are that good, it appears Mr. Usati was right.
The Central Election Commission Succeeds at Limiting Diaspora Voting
Speaking of election interference, we return to the story of the Central Election Commission (CEC) and their attempts to limit the polling stations available for the Moldovan Diaspora. As discussed in the last 2 Weekly Roundups (last week, two weeks back) the CEC has been fighting to suppress the Diaspora vote by limiting polling stations abroad. Nearly all parties (other than the Socialists) appealed to the courts over the issue and the Chisinau Court of Appeals held that the CEC must open 190 polling spaces. This was the number promoted by the Ministry of Foriegn Affairs, while the CEC wanted only 146. The CEC appealed to the Supreme Court of Justice which ruled this week upholding the lower court decision and mandating the CEC follow the guidance of the Ministry of Foriegn Affairs. But the CEC has decided to defy the Supreme Court and only open 150 polling locations in total. Whatever intentions the CEC may have claimed earlier, it is now perfectly clear that this Socialist and Dodon loyalist body is not acting out of high morals but as a political actor. There was outrage from other parties but a general acceptance that there is little that can be done - the court ruled, and look how much that helped. Meanwhile, Mr. Voronin discussed at a campaign stop how it may be better if the Diaspora were not allowed to vote at all. It’s not clear if these are the musings of an elderly politician or policy for the Socialists and Communist parties but it fits a trend.
Dueling Polls Roundup
As was the case with the last group of polls, we have two election polls to consider at the same time… with wildly different outcomes.
Watchdog.md and the Institute for Public Policyreleased a poll showing that only 2 parties will clear the threshold for Parliament, PAS with 38.1% and the Socialists with 21.4%. No other parties crossed the 5% electoral threshold (parties) or 7% threshold (blocks). In this case, once all the other votes are redistributed, PAS would have a commanding majority in Parliament. Meanwhile, theAssociation of Sociologists and Demographers released a poll showing quite the opposite. In their poll, PAS gets 38.5%, the Socialists 36.7%, and Shor 6.9. Together this leaves the Socialists and Shor with a majority in Parliament. As we have discussed in past weekly roundups, investigative reporting has shown that the Association of Sociologists and Demographers has a track record of skewing pre-election polls in favor of the Socialists. But with only these 2 polls dueling for public attention it is hard to know what outcome to really expect.
Election Day - not a Good Day for Trees
Meanwhile, the CEC has released the final version of the election ballot. It will have 23 parties and independent candidates and be a whopping 58 cm long (around 2x the length of a standard piece of printer paper). These ballots are not exactly environmentally friendly, but Moldova doesn’t have an electronic voting, counting or marking system. Each ballot has all the parties listed and voters must place a stamp next to the name of the party they want to vote for. This takes up quite a lot of paper so… not the best day to be a tree.
End of Pride Month and Traditional Family Marches
This month, LGBTQ activist group Generdoc-MD announced their anti-awards for the most homophobic and anti-gay people in the country. Politically speaking, most were Socialists, which provoked a comment from Mr. Dodon who noted that it was a “compliment for his party.” Meanwhile, the Socialists and the Church organized Traditional Family protest marches across Moldova to mark the end of Pride and fight back against and “gay agenda.” These marches are traditionally held on the same day as the Pro LGBTQ Pride March which was held online this year due to the pandemic. As someone who has marched with gay friends in years past they are violent affairs with the “Traditional Families” marchers coming explicitly to harm the Pride marchers. Keeping the events separate was, in some sense, safer this year. But it continues to remind us of the effect COVID is having on lives, activism and politics.
COVID 19 Update
Moldova’s COVID new cases and deaths continue to be flat with a 7 day average of 55 and 2.7 respectively. While these numbers are good in that we aren’t seeing indications of any increases in cases, there are worrying signs on the horizon that bear talking about.
Vaccine Hesitancy
As we discussed in the last Weekly Roundup, vaccine hesitancy is now Moldova’s major impediment to mass vaccinations. In fact, this week the Ministry of Health had to politely ask Romania and Estonia to delay deliveries of new vaccine donations because Moldova does not have enough room to store them. Romania has long been a supplier of vaccines for Moldova while Estonia recently announced it would be donating all 1 million of its Astrazeneca Stockpile because the country is prioritizing Pfizer and has sufficient supply. Of these donations 100,000 doses are planned for Moldova but Moldovan can’t use them yet.
A local news outlet Newsmaker has done a study on the religious communities in Moldova and how they are driving vaccine hesitancy. They found that Moldova’s primary religious community, the Orthodox Moldovan Metropolit (subsidiary to the Russian Orthodox Church) neither recommends vaccination nor opposes it calling it a “personal choice.” At the same time, priests and bishops have actively fought mask mandates through the pandemic and advocated for large unprotected meetings. Meanwhile, the smaller Bassarabian Metropolit (subsidiary of the Romaian Orthodox Church), answered the reporter by saying “the church is for spiritual healing and you should see blessings in illness. The Pandemic came from people having a hectic life and relation with god.“ Together these two parts of the Orthodox Church represent the largest portions of the population’s self described religious identity, though actual church attendance is far smaller. Smaller religious communities including the Catholic Dioceses, the Union of Baptists, the Chisinau Synagoge, and the Moldovan Muslim Community all voiced strong support for vaccinations and indicate that they preach about it. The leader of the Muslim Community went so far as to say he would like to host a vaccination center at the Mosque if he could.
Whatever the cause of the hesitancy, it has the Ministry of Health extremely concerned about a 3rd wave in the fall. This week there was reporting that the Government is actively exploring compulsory vaccination for front line workers, government employees, and education workers. No firm plans have come out but it looks like the tragedy unfolding in Moscow and elsewhere is spurring more radical actions.
Delta is Coming
The “Delta variant” that originated in India seems to pose the greatest risk of a 3rd wave in Moldova. Vaccines are strongly effective against this variant, but the WHO warns that immunity from infection caused by other strains of COVID-19 is not as effective, which threatens Moldova’s current “limited herd immunity.” 90% of the cases driving the current Moscow outbreak are Delta and it is the dominant strain in the UK with clusters appearing in the rest of Europe. Germany is warning that Delta will dominate in Germany by autumn. While there are no cases in Moldova yet, there were 2 just reported in Ukraine - both imported from Russia. This week health authorities announced the suspect Delta may be in Moldova as well and have sent samples to labs in Germany.
For the last year, Moldova has shown no success in keeping out variants as the border situation is “leaky.” For example, this week it was reported the Russians are bypassing European travel bans by specially designated “cargo passenger” flights that allow them to fly through Chisinau, have a layover, and continue elsewhere in Europe. Little workarounds like this are no doubt lucrative for someone, but threaten Moldova’s pandemic situation unless a huge increase in vaccinations happens soon.
Economic News
Italian Pensions in Moldova
While on a State Visit to Italy, President Sandu concluded a bilateral agreement whereby the Italian Government will pay pensions to Moldovans who work legally in Italy but want to move back to Moldova. Previously they would have needed to stay in Italy to receive the pension so this agreement is a step towards giving the Diaspora more reasons to come home.
Tornado In Moldova
This week, a tornado struck a small village in the north of Moldova (video at link). It took the roofs off of 10 farmhouses and 3 warehouses in the town. This is the first known tornado in the country and residents were shocked saying that “they only even knew what a tornado was from American movies!” Luckily no one was injured in the freak weather event.
But while this was a “freak” event, such things are more common than before. Climate change is being remarked on by more and more people in Moldova as the winters have gotten significantly more mild and other weather patterns change. This spring has been unusually rainy with thunderstorms and extreme weather not expected in the season. For an agricultural country, these weather events mean huge impacts on the economy and are driving more and more conversations about possible mitigation efforts.
Corruption and Crime
Mayor vs Deputy Mayor - the Fight in City Hall
As we discussed last week, there is a major scandal unfolding in the Chisinau City hall between Vice Mayor Cironda and Mayor Ion Ceban. Cironda attempted to blow the whistle on an illegal authorization to demolish the abandoned Hotel National. In response, Mayor Ceban has told Cironda that if he does not resign he will be fired. Meanwhile, the Vice Mayor’s powers have been stripped from him and he is essentially a “minister without portfolio.” The PAS faction of the City Council has backed Cironda and demands transparency on how construction decisions are made. When asked about the demand that he resign, Cironda said that he will not. He has retained legal counsel and declared that he will fight against being fired quote “not to keep my chair but to prevent the rubber stamping of these orders by the corrupt - and I count the Mayor as among their number.” Cironda intends to make a presentation to the City Council exposing corruption and continuing to blow the whistle on misdeeds at city hall.
Largest Ever Heroin Bust in Moldova
The Moldovan authorities and police arrested 3 suspects and seized over 200kg of heroin this week. Apparently, the drug smuggling ring started as an honest business with a Turkish citizen living in Moldova importing cleaning supplies and other goods from Iran. What was already a somewhat strange business, given Iran’s international isolation and sanctions, took a turn for the illegal when they realized they had an opportunity to ship heroin along with their other products. The criminal gang, who are a mix of Moldovan and Turkish citizens, shipped heroin from Iran to Russia, to Ukraine, to Moldova, and eventually on to Europe. Moldovan authorities intercepted the shipment and arrested 3 people.
Ending on a High Note!
This has been quite a week in political news and likely a foreshadowing of the leaks, attacks and general political mayhem we can expect leading up the fast approaching elections. So when looking for a high note, I could not stop thinking about this election advertisement for a little known and utterly unimportant political party. Like most of the parties on the ballot, there is no chance of this team getting substantial votes from people who are not their parents. But look at this ad! I don’t know what they are trying to say… but I think they’ve said it all.
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