Weekly Roundup
June 5 - June 11
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Elections Roundup
This week, campaign news has been totally overshadowed by a crisis within the Central Election Commission CEC over how many voting stations to open for the diaspora. Additionally, we are seeing the first hints of party platforms and some early polls.
The Central Election Commission Seeks to Suppress the Diaspora Vote
The CEC is controlled by a non-partisan commission tasked with managing elections in Moldova. They register parties, collect and disseminate financing reports and they set up polling places. This week, the CEC announced that it would be opening only 139 polling places outside Moldova for the diaspora. To put this number in context, there were 139 polling places for the 2020 Presidential Elections. During these elections, multiple polling places ran out of ballots and many had lines around the block that lasted all day. In that election, 60,000 people pre-registered with the CEC in order to help them distribute polling places abroad. For this election, over 100,000 pre-registered.
The Chairmen of the CEC had recommended increasing the number of polling places to 162 based on the new registrations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs appealed to the CEC to open 190 polling places based on their experience and the role they will play organizing polling stations. One CEC member, Maksim Lebedinsky, insisted on keeping the 139 polling places the same saying that “he didn’t want people to be confused.” Mr. Lebedinsky was joined by 4 colleagues on the CEC to overrule the chairmen and lock in the 139 polling places. Additionally, the voted to open three polling places in Transnistria for the first time.
So who are Mr. Lebedinsky and his colleagues? Well, it seems they are not the non-partisan board that they are supposed to be. Mr. Lebedinsky is a former advisor to Igor Dodon. Another is the brother of Dodon’s son in law. Two more are associated with Mr. Plahotnuic’s Party of Democrats. And the last is somewhat famous (infamous) for joining the decision to cancel the Chisinau Mayoral elections after the fact when Plahotnuic’s candidate lost.
In addition to the clear associations of the CEC members voting in this way, we can see that it is the Communist Socialist Block who has the most to gain from restricting the right to vote for the Diaspora. In past elections the diaspora voted overwhelmingly for PAS and are among the most organized voters in their voter turnout efforts. Additionally, adding three polling places in Transnistria where the Moldovan authorities will have no ability to prevent fraud and international observers will be denied access also support Mr. Dodon’s party, which has close relations with the breakaway region.
Backlash Against the CEC Decision
The backlash against the decision of the CEC was immediate with the PAS, Usati, DA and AUR parties calling protests in front of the CEC building. President Sandu called on the CEC to reconsider and Mr. Usati as well as other parties challenged the decision in court. The Diaspora reacted angrily online claiming their right to vote was being denied. The People’s Ombudsman for Human Rights agreed and is bringing a case to the European Court of Human Rights alleging voter suppression and the denial of the right to vote. The Interim Prime Minister made a statement declaring that money is not a restricting factor at all here and that the Ministry of Foriegn Affairs is prepared to shoulder the cost and recruit volunteers to manage the additional polling places. Even SIS, the Security and Information Service (like a mix of the FBI and CIA) made a statement warning that placing 3 polling places in Transnistria is a national security threat.
Protests in front of the CEC
The heavy protests and outcry caused the CEC to add 8 more polling places. Something that President Sandu and almost everyone outside of the CEC offices calls woefully insufficient. Meanwhile, the CEC itself seems to be in turmoil with the Chairman claiming that another CEC member physically threatened him which led to a police complaint.
While we don’t know what direction this story will take, we can draw some early conclusions. Suppressing the Diaspora votes is likely to energize people more. There are already talks of renting busses and arranging flights to go to less crowded polling places like in Ireland. In any case, it is unlikely to be decisive. However, it is a major concern and combined with the Transnestrai polling places indicates a willingness to violate democratic norms in order to stack the deck for one side. Finally, if the internal turmoil of the CEC causes the group to break down and members resign, the election itself may be in danger. Should the CEC resign there is a risk that Parliament will struggle to appoint new commissioners in time to hold the election. While that outcome seems highly unlikely, we are seeing one more offshoot of the political struggle of 2021 that is playing out through both public dialog and institutional means.
Initial Polling Is Out!
This week, two polls were released with wildly contradictory information. Since this is among the first public polling in election season we will look at both polls and try and break down how trustworthy their results might be.
Poll 1: Association of Sociologists and Demographers
The first poll to be released was from the Association of Sociologists and Demographers. This poll showed support for PAS at 36.5%, the Communists and Socialists at 36.1% and Shor at 7.3%. No other parties passed the electoral thresholds to enter Parliament. This would approximately equate to a statistical tie between PAs and the Communists and Socialists who would each get 46 seats in Parliament while Shor would get 9 seats. Together, the Communists and Socialists and Shor would therefore have a majority.
Now, before thinking too much on that poll we need to investigate the source a bit. This polling organization is known to be associated with the Socialist party and Mr. Dodon. One news outlet did an investigation of their past polling work in elections and found substantial and sustained errors in favor of the Socialists when the polls are compared against electoral results. So while this poll made quite a bit of news this week, it is best to treat it with skepticism.
Poll 2: Watchdog.md and the Public Policy Institute
The second poll to be released this week is from the anti-corruption news website Watchdog.md who partnered with the Public Policy Institute to conduct a poll. This poll showed support for PAS at 50.5%, the Communists and Socialists at 32.5% and Shor at 5.1%. No other parties passed the thresholds needed to enter Parliament. These poll figures would indicate 58 seats in Parliament for PAS, 37 seats for the Communists and Socialists and 6 for Shor.
It is important to note that the Shor party needs 5% to get into Parliament at all. Polling at 5.1% is within the margin of error. If they got 4.9% of the vote they would be excluded from Parliament and the majority of their seats would go to PAS.
Update: An astute reader accurately pointed out that the previous statement is not entirely correct. Seats from parties that do not make it to parliament are allocated one by one to the parties that did get in starting with the one with the most votes. In the narrow case of this poll, this means that PAS and the Socialists would split the 6 Shor votes 3 to 3. In most cases, it means that the party with higher vote share does take the votes from the excluded party. So it’s a little complicated!
We can confidently say one of these polls is very very wrong. Given that the election is now only about 1 month away it seems likely we will get more data to compare them to soon. For the moment, we only have the information I have outlined above.
An Alliance of Unionists and Moscow?
While the AUR block is nonexistent in polling, it is sparking lots of media coverage and conversations both in Moldova and Romania. Some Romanian outlets have been sharing analysis suggesting that while AUR is unlikely to be intentionally supporting Mr. Dodon and the Socialists, their actions are having that effect. Specifically the outlet notes that the stirring up of ethnic tensions plays very well into the Socialist culture war narrative. Further, Russian propaganda constantly paints Ukraine and countries with EU aspirations as being led by “fascists.” The Romanian publication linked above notes how useful it is for Moscow and it’s proxies to actually have some fascists for a change.
AUR is not helping itself in this as it has been staging protests outside of Mr. Dodon’s house this week. Dodon has been skillfully playing a victim and decrying the fact that his family have been frightened and that this political behavior is irresponsible. The fact that AUR is forcing Mr. Dodon to engage them like this does not have any clear electoral objective for AUR, but it does play brilliantly into the Socialist’s campaign.
So while the commentary of Unionists intentionally supporting the pro-Russian parties is not based in reality. The fact is their behavior is supporting Mr. Dodon indirectly. This is a strange phenomenon to watch and we will keep an eye on it as the campaign progresses.
COVID-19 Update
The COVID Situation continues to improve with a 7 day average of 51 new cases and 4 deaths. Another key indicator is the test positivity rate which showed that yesterday, of 5600 tests done the test positivity rate was only 0.7%. In an interview, the head of the WHO in Moldova laid out the reasons for the current positive situation. He noted that according to their models the infection rate this spring was 3-4 times higher than the reported numbers. This meant that in parts of the country including Chisinau a limited herd immunity was achieved and the virus did not have enough hosts to spread. Combined with lockdowns and other measures the wave was both contained and burned out. He notes that the latest science suggests this immunity will last through the summer months but that just as children return to school and the warm temperatures end people will be at risk of reinfection if they are not vaccinated. This suggests a next wave could occur in early fall. The WHO called on authorities to focus on vaccinating the regions, especially the south, where hesitancy rates are much higher than in Chisinau.
Vaccines in Arms!
Moldova is now second place regionally in it’s vaccination program with 12% of the population having received a first shot. Of the Eastern Partnership countries, only Azerbaijani is moving faster with 15% with one shot. Ukraine is moving far slower at only 2.5%. That said, there was a worrying sign from the vaccine marathon in Edinet last weekend where only 100 people came to get vaccinated in 2 days. Doctors were concerned as they have large stockpiles but people were hesitant or uninterested. One possible reason may be the vaccines, the marathon had stockpiles of AstraZeneca and Sinopharm. Both vaccines have not proven very popular with many in the Republic of Moldova seeking Pfizer while those in Transnistria exclusively prefer Sputnik. This brand preference and hesitancy is an issue the Ministry of Health needs to tackle head on but has not yet outlined a clear plan for.
Sputnik V - Made in Moldova?
Mr. Dodon announced this week that he is in talks with Russia to produce Sputnik V in Moldova. Many were quick to note that Mr. Dodon has no official function or capacity to negotiate on behalf of Moldova and that this was perhaps just a campaign stunt of some kind. That said, Moldova has a small but professional pharmaceutical industry. It’s not clear that there is capacity to make a vaccine, but there would clearly be capacity to participate in the supply chain. Something that the Moldovan Government has shown no interest in supporting this past year. So vaccines made in Moldova? Probably not. But we’ll have to wait and see.
Economic Update
Prima Casa is Out of Money
This week, the Prima Casa or “First House” program announced it was out of money and needed to stop lending. The government program, which assists first time homebuyers in attaining suitable mortgages, was quickly bailed out by the Interim Government using emergency funds. The increase in home purchases and desire of the government to support this buying and the lending behind it show that some life may be flowing back into the economy after the 2020 pandemic crisis.
Recovery is also being reported by the National Bureau of Statistics which is showing measurable growth and recovery across multiple sectors. Hopefully continued improvements in COVID-19 case rates and a newfound optimism will drive continued movement in the right direction.
Corruption and Anti-Corruption Efforts
Launching of the Independent Advisory Committee for the Fight against Corruption
On June 8th, the new Independent Advisory Committee for the Fight against Corruption officially began its work. The committee was convened by President Sandu but will operate completely independently of the Presidency and other Moldovan Government agencies as it seeks to study problems of major corruption and make recommendations to the Presidency and the Government for anti corruption actions and reforms. The committee's recommendations will be public but otherwise their scope and focus is not known as they will organize independently and focus on issues they see as most critical. Committee members are a mixture of international experts and Moldovan investigative journalists and lawyers. It is co-chaired by American anti-corruption expert Jim Wasserstrom and Moldovan investigative journalist and founder of Ziarul de Gardă, Alina Radu.
On the announcement of the Committee Mr. Dodon decried the involvement of international experts as well as the funding which is provided by the US, EU and British governments. Mr. Dodon says that this Committee will not be independent and will work in the interests of western powers.
Corruption in the National Center for Blood Transfusions
The director of the National Center for Blood Transfusions was arrested this week and confined to preliminary arrest for 30 days. While details of the case are still unfolding it appears to be a massive scheme whereby donated blood was not tested and test kits and other procurement orders were farmed out to friends and corrupt cronies. This resulted in blood donations that were untested and unsuitable for use as well as cases of donated blood coming from people with serious conditions including syphilis.
In one extremely shocking case, an international donor intended to donate a blood transfusion machine to the Balti municipal hospital. Corrupt actors fraudulently conducted the tender and “borrowed” an existing machine from the local hospital for the ceremony. In this case the donor wound up “donating” the machine right back to the hospital that already owned it while an intermediary pocketed the donor’s money.
The case is still unfolding, but highlights the urgent need for Moldova to get a handle on its corruption problem that threatens both the lives of citizens and the national security as a whole.
Ending on a High Note!
For this week’s high note we have a story that was a long time in coming. President Biden announced that the United States will be donating 500 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine to low and middle income countries around the world including Moldova and its neighbors. There have been many justified opinions written about how the wealthy countries aren’t doing enough to combat this pandemic globally and while this is late, it’s a powerful start. While things look ok in Moldova right now and there is an adequate supply of vaccines, it is true that no one is really safe until everyone is safe. With Ukraine lagging at only 2.5% of the population receiving a first shot there is a long way to go both for Moldova and the region. Hopefully some more help will be on the way soon.
If you want to dive deeper into how vaccine diplomacy has played out in Moldova, check out our previous article Deep Dive: Vaccine Diplomacy in Moldova.
And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!