Weekly Roundup: Election Updates and Church Troubles
September 9, 2024
Election Updates: New Polls and Candidate Registrations
Last week Watchdog published a new election poll gauging support for presidential candidates as well as the EU referendum. This poll is the first one that largely represents the field as it is with pollsters and voters finally having a (relatively) clear understanding of who is actually running.
The poll shows a clear lead for President Sandu with 35.5% of respondents intending to vote for her re-election. Following her the Socialist candidate Alexandr Stoianogolo is second with 9.9% of the vote. You can see all the candidates polled in the following graphic from the Watchdog website.
Sharp eye readers will notice that Igor Dodon, Ilan Shor, Vlad Filat, Vladimir Voronin and Ion Ceban are not actually running for president. Vasile Bolea is trying to run for president but was rejected by the Central Election Commission (CEC) again this week on the grounds that he has tried to register as an independent while he is actually (clearly) backed by the parties of the Pobeda (Victory) block. Bolea has announced that he will continue his fight for ballot access in court.
Vasile Tarlev was also rejected by the CEC under the same reasoning, but then re-registered to run as a candidate for the Future of Moldova party which he leads and which was clearly backing his “independent” run. The CEC accepted his re-registration and he will be on the ballot subject to his party gathering enough signatures in time. Another potential candidate, Avelin Tabarchi, was also rejected under the same rules when he registered as an independent but the CEC ruled that he was backed by the Chance party which has been restricted from participating in the election. Tabarchi is primarily known for organizing concerts and events for the Shor party.
So the whole election field has yet to take a definitive form and the electorate has yet to catch up with exactly who is and isn’t running. Compared to previous polls though the numbers for Dodon and Ceban have fallen significantly reflecting voters starting to figure out who’s actually running.
While the whole process has been messy and pretty confusing, the Watchdog poll strongly points to President Sandu as the favorite in this race. Removing undecided responses and factoring in past voting patterns from the diaspora, some back of the napkin math indicates that the President can expect something close to 50% of the vote in the first round. Whether she clears that threshold or will need to compete in a second round runoff is unclear. We may get more of an indication as the field takes final form and more polls are released.
EU Referendum
The same poll found 52.6% support for joining the European Union against 28.1% who supported joining the Eurasian Economic Union EEU. The actual referendum will be a “Yes” or “No” vote on joining the EU and it’s not totally clear that EEU support is a proxy for a “No” vote. Once again, these numbers do not factor in voters in the diaspora who have traditionally strongly supported EU integration.
The report accompanying the poll noted that there is a slight downward trend in EU support which they showed at 53.9% in April (25.3% EEU). Respondents also showed less interest in joining NATO with 29.5% now vs 34% in April. Asked if the country is on the Right Track or Wrong Track, 41% said right track and 46% wrong track. This marks the lowest number of people responding that the country is going in the wrong direction in 9 years.
Watchdog attributes some of the shift in support against EU membership to Russian propaganda saying:
"We are seeing a growing impact of massive disinformation campaigns and influencing public opinion on the evolution of the population's geo-political preferences. These trends could strongly influence the results of the electoral polls this fall. In particular, the concentration of hostile propaganda efforts on the topics aimed at the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the EU and cooperation with Western countries is worrying"
Watchdog has called for more efforts to slow or stop the spread of propaganda, especially regarding Ilan Shor’s continued spending on Facebook advertising.
Registration of parties to campaign for the referendum is still open until September 20th. Parties register to support either a “Yes” or “No” vote in the referendum. So far Ion Ceban’s MAN party as well as some other smaller pro-EU parties have registered to campaign for “Yes.” The Shor-linked Renaissance and Chance1 parties have registered for “No” as have the Communists. It now appears clear that no major party will attempt to boycott the referendum.2
Rising Tensions Between the Government and the Orthodox Church
The Moldovan press continues to report on “pilgrimage” trips that are being made by priests of the Moldovan Orthodox Church to Russia. The story first broke in August that the trips were being paid for by Ilan Shor and that priests and their families were being wined and dined in Moscow and then given payment cards from Promsvyazbank. Allegedly they were promised 1000 euros / month for “church repairs.” ZdG reports that another 64 priests set off on “pilgrimage” in the first week of September. Their travel was arranged by a travel agency that was paid in cash by unknown persons.
Initially the Metropolis of Moldova denied any role in organizing the trips and called on priests not to get involved in politics. Now they have begun claiming that the trips are paid for by the Russian Orthodox Church and are solely focused on visiting historical and religious sites. They said that the priests involved “did not pursue electoral or political goals” and that “these fraternal pilgrimages will continue.”
President Sandu called on priests to stay out of politics saying:
"I call on the clergy not to participate in actions aimed at destabilizing the situation in the country, because such actions are punishable by law. I call on them not to interfere in politics and to allow citizens to choose for themselves. Let them focus on promoting Christian morality and promoting peace in our society. This is my call, and I hope that as many clergy as possible will hear it,"
The simmering tensions boiled over last week when backbench PAS MP Vasile Soimaru made comments in a TV interview predicting that the church will be banned. He said:
“The time is coming when we, like Ukraine3, will renounce the Metropolitanate of Moldova, which is in fact Russian. […] I think that the problem of the Metropolitanate will be resolved this fall,”
The implication that the Moldovan government was about to ban the largest religious institution in the country - during an election - was a bit explosive to say the least.
PAS quickly released a statement calling the interview the personal views of Vasile Soimaru and saying that they did not represent the party. President Sandu also sought to ease concerns saying:
"There is no danger for either the Metropolis of Moldova or the Metropolis of Bessarabia. On the contrary, in these four years we have done more than anyone else to promote peace and understanding between these metropolises.”4
The Metropolis of Moldova responded to the statements by MP Vasile Soimaru by calling on the government to “stop the moral torture of the church.” Their statement went on saying:
"Law enforcement officers come to priests' homes and force them to sign various incomprehensible statements. Some clergymen were detained at border checkpoints and subjected to thorough searches without any grounds. Today, the Church is under pressure, as in Soviet times. More and more threats are being made against the Church and its ministers,"
If Ilan Shor hoped to get the Orthodox Church involved in the election by bribing some priests then his plan must be exceeding expectations.
Other Top Stories
Here’s a roundup of the other top stories of the week:
Polish PM Donald Tusk visited Moldova and addressed parliament. The Polish Prime Minister partially spoke in Romanian during his address and promised Polish support on Moldova’s EU path. He specifically stated that he will help accelerate Moldova and Ukraine’s path towards the EU when Poland next taxes the rotating presidency of the EU Council (from Hungary).
The Hungarian Foreign Minister visited Chisinau and held a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Popsoi. In it he expressed Hungary’s support for Moldova joining the EU but stated that Moldova’s path towards the block should be de-linked from that of Ukraine. The Minister spoke of the challenges of an "emerging new world order" and how Europe was being weakened but could be strengthened by the addition of Moldova. About Ukraine he said that Hungary has "serious problems concerning Ukraine, as evidenced by the facts, not by the political opposition. The rights of the Hungarian community are being seriously violated in Ukraine."
Transnistria has now outlawed the word “Transnistria” making this sentence a sort of a hate crime in the region. To drill into the Romanian / Russian language controversy at work here see last week’s roundup. The region’s “parliament” at the request of the regional leadership have equated the use of the name “Transnistria” with a “manifestation of Nazism.” It is punishable by a fine of around 400 lei or up to 15 days in jail. Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky called this a "triumph of historical justice." In a carve out of the law, it is apparently permissible to say “Transnistria” in the context of also saying bad things about Nazis.
Moldova’s Bureau of Reintegration responded to Transnistria’s canceling of “Transnistria” saying that the allegation of fascist origins of the name "does not correspond to historical realities." They noted that references to the region as Transnistria began during the First World War and had nothing to do with Nazi Germany.
The 2024 Summer Paralympic Games ended in France with Moldova taking home 2 medals. Moldovan athlete Ion Basoc won silver and Oleg Creţul won bronze - both in Judo.
European Chief Prosecutor Laura Kövesi5 visited Chisinau and met with President Sandu and Prime Minister Recean. In public remarks she warned that wherever EU funds go so goes fraud and explained her office’s jurisdiction in these matters. In an interview she was asked about Moldovan Anti Corruption Prosecutor Veronica Dragalin’s public complaints about not having a good enough office. In response Kövesi stated that conditions are never perfect but that you need to just "roll up your sleeves and get to work."
Police have updated the public on their investigation into the July 10th murder of Izzet Eren (Moldova Matters article about the “scoot by shooting”). Police allege that the gunman flew into Moldova from Cyprus on June 15th. He had 3 accomplices, one who entered with him, another who came later from Germany, and a Moldovan woman who was in a relationship with one of the men. The men rented an airbnb near the restaurant where they killed Eren and one of the men had previously bought an apartment overlooking the restaurant in 2020. None of them lived in this apartment which they rented out, but they set up security cameras on the balcony to watch the restaurant terrace. Prior to the murder one of the men left the country. At 11:31 am the gunman shot and killed Izzet Eren before departing by scooter. By 12:46 he was at the Northern Bus Station and boarded a bus to Iasi Romania. The other male accomplice left the same day via car back to Germany. Police detained the Moldovan woman, who had a firearms permit and may have sourced the weapon. She is cooperating with the investigation. All the accomplices face 15 years to life in prison. The shooter is also wanted in the UK and Turkey for similar crimes. After putting all the suspects on the international wanted list on August 5th one of the accomplices was detained in the UK. Moldova has requested his extradition. Police say that the shooter had sworn vengeance against Izzet Eren back in 2012 after Eren killed the shooter’s brother.
German company Coroplast closed their factory in Causeni and laid off 304 workers on September 1st. The company gave no official reason for the closure but back in May Alexandru Slusari stated that the company was moving to Tunisia for cheaper labor. At the time Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba stated that Coroplast was not leaving Moldova but was moving to another kind of activity in the market. Local press reported that some laid off employees are considering migrating abroad after losing their jobs. The next closest factory employing skilled machine operators or specialists in car wiring is 2 hours away with shifts that run from 7 am to midnight - making the commute impractical. The government has previously stated that rising wages means that Moldova is less competitive for some producers and that replacing these jobs is a natural, if painful, part of economic growth.
The Chance party was previously banned from participating in any political activities over the next 3 months by a court decision related to their failures to file financial reports (and kinda boycotting the whole reporting process). This decision is still in court pending appeal, so the CEC has registered their participation in the referendum with the caveat that this registration will be revoked if they lose the appeal. So yeah… this thing just keeps getting more complicated.
Previous reporting in the early summer indicated that some pro-Russian parties would seek to boycott the referendum in order to defeat it by lack of quorum. This never seemed viable because Shor’s parties indicated early on that they intended to campaign for “No.” Soft pro-Russian candidates like Ion Chicu also had trouble explaining why they were asking people to boycott the referendum on joining the EU while he was himself claiming to be pro-EU. Now all of this incoherence has worked its way through the system and parties have pretty much lined up as “Yes” or “No.” This, combined with holding the referendum on the same day as the presidential election, means that the chance of this referendum failing due to lack of turnout is now close to zero.
Last month Ukraine banned the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which was subordinate to the Russian Orthodox Church. Ukraine’s Metropolitan Epiphanius which is based in Kyiv is set to become the only representative of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine.
For more information about the schism between these 2 branches of orthodoxy see this Moldova Matters article from last November.
Laura Kövesi is a legend in Moldova and Romania. As a prosecutor she led Romania’s National Anti-Corruption Directorate (DNA) from 2013 - 2019. In that time her office waged all out war on high level corruption convicting dozens of mayors, 5 MPs, a former Prime Minister and hundreds of judges. She maintained a 90% conviction rate. In 2019 she was fired by the Minister of Justice in a move widely understood to be an attempt to prevent her from investigating members of the PSD government. The blatantly corrupt firing of such a successful anti-corruption prosecutor led the EU to appoint her to the newly established position of European Chief Prosecutor and then to assign her to take another look at corruption in Romania and in the entire block.
“Roll up your sleeves and get to work” was a not-so-subtle admonition of Dragalin by someone who knows what she is talking about.