Weekly Roundup

May 4, 2023

Gagauzian Election Results

As we wrote in this past weekend’s Quick Hit article, the autonomous region’s April 30th election is important to watch not just for the region but for its potential impacts on all of Moldova. This is especially true regarding Russian attempts to destabilize the political situation in the country.

57,019 voters of an eligible ~92,000 voted, resulting in a 57.8% turnout which exceeded the 50% turnout needed for the election to be considered valid.

The final vote count as reported by the Central Election Commission CEC of Gagauzia is as follows:

• DUDOGLLO Nikolay — 5059 votes / 9%

• UZUN Grigory — 14849 votes / 26.4% (Independent backed by Socialist Party)

• FORMUZAL Mikhail — 1969 votes / 3.5%

• PETROV Viktor — 9133 votes / 16.2% (Independent Candidate backed by some Socialist MPs.

• KROITOR Dmitry — 5825 votes / 10.4% (Independent Candidate, former Bashkan seen as moderate)

• CHERNEV Sergey — 1301 votes / 2.3%

• GUTUL Evghenia — 14890 votes / 26.47% (Shor Party Candidate)

• CHIMPOESH Sergey — 3228 votes / 5.7%

Bolded candidates were seen as frontrunners in pre-election polls and discussed in our Quick Hit article.

As we can see, the results show a dead heat between the Shor Party candidate and the Socialist backed candidate with only 41 votes separating them. Because neither candidate achieved the 50% threshold needed for victory a second round of voting between the top 2 candidates will be held on May 14th. As you can see when comparing to the pre-election polls the Shor candidate Yevgenia Hutsul well exceeded expectations… or simply proved that the polls weren’t very accurate.

Journalists who talked with voters about their motivations during the election found some clear patterns. Most voters discussed economic pains, feelings that their region had been “left behind” and a desire for a strong Bashkan who can stand up to Chisinau. Additionally voters voiced more geopolitical concerns supporting widespread usage of the Russian language and various Russian talking points about the war, including that Russia is the aggrieved party and that the Chisinau government is backing western aggression. At the same time the only really widespread motivations were economic and voters brought a diverse set of concerns to the election.

At the same time, we can see one major driver of the outcome being CEC reported election spending where Yevgenia Hutsul, the Shor Party Candidate, outspent all the other candidates combined substantially. Her campaign spent 5x more money on fireworks alone than some of the other less popular candidates spent in the whole election. Her campaign expenditures were actually larger than all but the largest parties spent on the 2021 national parliamentary elections.

Experts are highly divided about how the second round of the election might play out. Continued high levels of campaign spending are likely to give Yevgenia Hutsul a strong advantage in promoting her populist message. Meanwhile, Grigory Uzun is attempting to court endorsements from the candidates who have been knocked out by holding open consultations with them in the next weeks. The most important person for him to ally with would be Viktor Petrov who was also backed by Socialist MPs as well as receiving some signals of support from the Kremlin. At this point the Kremlin is likely to be happy with either candidate who wins, but has shown clear favor in recent months to the Shor party over the Socialists. Grigory Uzun has invited Yevgenia Hutsul to a public debate at a time and place of her choosing before the 2nd round. Most likely the Socialist backed candidate is hoping to leverage his more extensive political experience in a public platform against Hutsul who is a newcomer to politics. Yevgenia Hutsul has not yet responded to the invitation.

We’ll follow developments in the race in the lead up to the May 14th second round.

Air Moldova Ceases all Flights

The airline suspended all flights and ticket sales on May 2nd and has petitioned the courts for an "accelerated restructuring of the company" which has become insolvent due to debts. The airline claims that it has external investment worth $50 million dollars raised, but that a restructuring of the debt is necessary to bring in these investors. The airline claims that they hope to restart flights May 15th or 3 days after the court approves the restructuring that they ask for. In reality we have no idea if the airline will resume flights soon, or ever, as their optimism seems to come from a hope that the courts approve their own plan against their creditors.

In explaining the situation, Air Moldova blames Moldova Agroindbank MAIB for “unnecessary contract stipulations” that have frozen some of their funds. The bank has publicly replied saying that their lending contracts include industry specific clauses to address risk and that the airline is free to bank with whoever they want. Meanwhile, the Civil Aviation Authority began an audit of the airline on April 21st.

The airline has said that it is processing refund requests to ticket holders. The Civil Aviation Authority has also called on all passengers to claim their refund rights and has said that if they have problems getting the refund they should contact the agency.

Speaking about the airline’s fall, Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu indicated little sympathy for the formerly national airline which was “privatized” during the Plahotniuc period saying:

“Air Moldova is controlled by Ilan Shor. This is his company. And the word "Moldova" is superfluous in it. There is only air and huge debts deliberately created in this way of management […] I think this is a bearded [old] problem that started a very long time ago. They accumulated for a long time, and now they have reached a critical point,” … “We need to understand how they disposed of the funds. Where were they sent, were they used for anything other than flying? The prosecutor’s office and the Regional State Administration should find out what the airline’s resources were used for, ”

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development continues talks with various low cost airlines to attract them to the Chisinau market including renewed attempts to getting WizzAir to reopen their Moldova routes.

International Affairs and Security News

The biggest international affairs news in Moldova now is the run up to the European Political Community EPC Summit in Chisinau on June 1st. With less than a month to go before nearly 50 European heads of state converge on Chisinau, preparations are in full swing for what will be Moldova’s biggest international relations event in the country’s history.

One major issue for the authorities is logistics with so many delegations coming to the city at the same time and the need for tight security around the event. In order to alleviate some of the pressure the city will feel, the government announced this week that the last day of school, celebrated as “Children’s Day” in Moldova will be held on May 30th nationwide rather than the traditional June 1st. Further, June 1st and 2nd have been declared national holidays in order to reduce traffic within the city. In Moldova holidays announced on short notice are not uncommon and result in new working days being added later (usually on weekends) in order to compensate.

Moldovan security services have conducted multiple exercises in preparation for the summit including one where 300 police officers simulated escorting multiple convoys of diplomats through Chisinau. In another, Moldovan Fulger (SWAT) officers conducted exercises with a Polish rapid reaction force that will assist in security that involved flying a Polish Black Hawk helicopter low over central streets and government buildings.

Photo Source Ministry of Internal Affairs MAI, accessed via ZdG

Exercises have been declared successes by the authorities who are also careful to announce them in advance so that people don’t get nervous. Even so, the exercises are often announced with only short warning in order to simulate realistic traffic conditions. In particular, the appearance of a Black Hawk over Chisinau got quite a lot of attention from pedestrians on the streets below. Throughout the next month we’ll have a number of updates and some dedicated articles looking at the development of the EPC summit and what it means for Moldova that the country will soon be the very center of European political power… if only for a few days.

Other Key International Affairs Stories

Here is a short roundup of other stories in Moldova’s international relations news:

• EU Civil Mission to Approved for Moldova - The European Comission has approved the dispatch of a civilian mission that will support Moldova in cybersecurity and disinformation defenses over the next 2 years. The mission will be based in Chisinau and will arrive in the near future.

• Russia Expels Moldovan Diplomat - Russia has expelled a Moldovan diplomat in a tit-for-tat response to Moldova’s recent expulsion of a Russian diplomat over alleged interference in the Gagauzian elections.

• Russia bans the entry of Moldovan politicians including Interior Minister Anna Revenco and MPs Oazu Nantoi, Olesa Stamate and Lilian Carp all of the PAS party. They justified the move saying that these figures had made anti-Russian statements. Given the level of honor that this selection grants these figures it is not unreasonable to think that the Russian move may backfire and encourage more politicians to be noticed in such a way. Responding to the ban Interior Minister Anna Revenco stated:

“For 31 years, Russia has been constantly blackmailing Moldova, manipulating its citizens, destroying our economy. These are the diplomatic methods that have become almost the norm on the front of the hybrid war that Russia is waging against our country. To give weight to their decisions, they include in the list of persona non grata state officials who resist pressure and blackmail. I did not intend and do not intend to go to the Russian Federation,”

• Prime Minister Recean Announces that Putin is banned from Moldova - In response to questions about the banning of Moldovan politicians the Prime Minister noted that Putin and many people close to him are similarly banned. The Prime Minister noted that this list is not public but that banned individuals regularly discover their status when trying to enter the country.

• Former Russian President Medvedev responded to the Prime Minister by saying about Moldova that “there is no such country anymore." This resulted in the Moldovan Foreign Ministry summoning the Russian ambassador for a formal complaint.

• EU Announces Sanctions Regime against those seeking to destabilize Moldova - The mechanism of sanctions has now been approved and while no names are listed currently the power to name people to the list is now in place. EU Foriegn Affairs High Representative Josep Borrell explained the sanctions saying:

“As one of the countries most affected by the consequences of Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, we are witnessing increased and ongoing attempts to destabilize Moldova. The new sanctions regime will enable us to continue building Moldova's resilience by targeting those who are trying to destabilize the country. This is an important political signal of EU support for Moldova in the current difficult context,”

• Leaked US National Security Documents indicate Wagner Participation in Shor Protests - The documents which were part of the ongoing leak of classified Pentagon information back up previous statements from the Moldovan authorities that around 150 Wagner recruited Moldovan men were brought to Turkey and trained in starting riots and tactics at turning protests violent. Shor previously admitted this action saying that he was buying the young men a “vacation.”

• The Moldovan Ministry of Defense announces partnerships with 6 foreign military academies - Moldovans aged 18-24 who are unmarried and without criminal record can apply to study at the US Air Force Academy, West Point, the Hellenic Air Force Academy, the Hellenic Army Academy, the Romanian Air Force Academy and the Romanian Army Academy. Studies will be paid for by the host country and the Moldovan Military. Before embarking on studies the cadets will be sworn into the Moldovan army and will serve upon graduation.

Politics and Justice Reform

Much of the political news of the week orbited around Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban’s legal troubles and somewhat confusing efforts to walk a fine line between the positions of the Socialist voting base that elected him mayor and the “Pro-European” orientation of his new MAN Party.

First, the National Integrity Authority ANI released a verification of Ceban’s wealth showing a 621,500 lei discrepancy between the property he owns and his reported income. The ANI concluded that the mayor violated property declaration rules and demanded a penalty of his being stripped of the mayor’s office and barred from public office for a period of 3 years. The Mayor denies the charges and will appeal in court. Mayor Ceban then claimed that Anti-Corruption Prosecutors were about to raid his mother’s house in another case. He cited April 26th as the date of the raid… which never took place. Prosecutors deny any open cases against his mother.

Meanwhile, today May 4th, Anti Corruption officers of the CNA raided City Hall in a case investigating Boris Gilca, head of the city health department and other employees. Officers state that the case is based “on the embezzlement of external funds intended for refugees.”

In addition to his legal troubles, the Mayor has struggled at defining a coherent political line for his new party. Asked about the upcoming Pride Parade which he has opposed in the past, Mayor Ceban stated that they would refuse to issue a permit and called out “LGBT propaganda” against children. Organizers of Pride note that they don’t need a permit from city hall and have never had one in past years.

Finally, asked about the upcoming May 9th Victory Day holiday the Mayor tried again to walk a middle path saying that he and his team would attend celebrations of the holiday, which has become closely related with Russian political narratives about the war, while also categorically stating that he is against the war and condemns Russian aggression.

The Mayor, who is seen as a potential contender in upcoming elections is clearly struggling not only with accusations of corruption but also to define just what his MAN party stands for in a world where it is increasingly difficult to be Pro-European and still chart a middle way on issues supported by his former Socialist party voters.

Roundup of Other Political News

Here are some other important political stories driving the headlines:

• Ilan Shor stripped of his mandate as an MP - Following his conviction and 15 year prison sentence (in absentia) 56 PAS deputies voted to recognize the conviction and remove him from parliament. Olesya Stamate, head of the Parliamentary Legal Commission emphasized that this was not a political expulsion but enforcement of Constitutional Court rulings requiring the removal of a mandate for anyone convicted of crimes. Ilan Shor responded from Israel in typical fashion saying:

“The fear of a popular uprising, for which there are enough prerequisites, made them look for something else to attack me. Tremble, for your end is near. On May 7, you will find out what the people think about you, ”

• General Assembly of Judges (finally) elects 4 judges to the Superior Council of Magistracy - Judges were elected from among the pre-Vetted candidates after a drama filled meeting. 320 of 401 eligible judges participated, but the Chairman of the Assembly elected at their last meeting on March 17th initially refused to take the podium. When he was bypassed for an interim chairwoman he then demanded his position back before using it briefly to dramatically resign yelling about a “witch hunt” of some kind. Subsequently a new chairwoman was elected and after some more procedural skirmishing elections went forward. Judges were elected to 6 year terms and take their seats next to non-judicial colleagues recently appointed by Parliament to the council.

Economics and Infrastructure

Here are some key stories in economic and infrastructure news of the past week:

• Government Announces 373 Lending Program - The program is designed to provide government backing for small business loans made by banks in order to increase financial liquidity for business investments. The loans can total up to 15 million lei at rates of 3% in Euros or Dollars, 7% in Lei and with up to 3 years grace period. Hence 373 which discerning readers will note is Moldova’s international calling code (+373) - clever eh? Currently Moldovan banks have substantial balance sheets but are not conducting much lending, partially due to high collateral requirements and partially due to high interest rates. This program will compensate the banks for the difference between market rates and the 3% / 7% rates guaranteed in the program. Details are still being worked out and the program is to be implemented by ODA.

• Ministry of Culture creates new programs for tourism - The Ministry has announced the "best tourist destination" award where villages up to 15,000 people that are scenic, have tourist accommodations, and provide traditional activities for guests can be recognized. This move is part of a major focus on supporting the creation of tourism infrastructure from the Ministry and crucially supported by USAID and other development partners.

• Moldovan Farmers also complain about Ukrainian grain - Following news stories of the last weeks where Poland and Hungary have closed their borders to Ukrainian grain, Moldovan farmers have also announced problems with “dumping” into the local market. Alexander Slusari, director of the Farmers' Power Association says that while he understands Ukraine’s difficult position, the selling of Ukrainian grain at under market prices is forcing Moldovan farmers to also sell below cost. Farmers from both countries need to sell products, even at a loss, in order to gather money and open up storage facilities for the next harvest. The association calls on the government to follow EU policy (which is so far not decided) and not to leave Moldova alone to absorb this grain in the case of an EU ban. The Ministry of Agriculture says they are monitoring the EU’s position and will react similarly. At the same time they say direct subsidies are not an option and note they are not being considered in the EU either.

Crime and Corruption

Here is a quick roundup of the key law enforcement news of the week:

• Airport Concession Case to be brought to court - Anti-Corruption Prosecutors have announced that they are in the final stages of bringing their case to court which will charge 8 defendants, including former Prime Minister Iurie Leanca and former Minister of Economy Valeriu Lazar with corruption and acting in the “interests of a criminal group.” The case involves the privatization concession that gave the Chisinau airport to Ilan Shor’s companies for 49 year. Prosecutors estimate damage to the state budget totally $20 million dollars.

• Marina Tauber detained at the airport - The Shor Party leader in Moldova was detained while trying to board a flight to Israel. Prosecutors allege that she was attempting to flee because the case against her regarding illegal party financing is about to go to court. Tauber’s lawyers claim that she was not banned from leaving the country and noted she had round trip tickets. After her detention a judge agreed to send her to 20 days house arrest as the case makes its way to the court.

Finally, a serious and yet still comic case about Moldova’s least loveably and most ridiculous wanna-be politician. Former Romanian MP Cristian Rizea has been expelled from Moldova and handed over to Romanian authorities where he was promptly arrested under charges of money laundering and extortion.

Mr. Rizea has long been a feature of the Moldovan news as a comically self absorbed and deeply strange man who’s exploits involve various abortive political campaigns and an attempt to “destroy a restaurant with a sledgehammer” which only proved to all watchers that the man had no idea whatsoever how hammers work (youtube video well worth watching). We haven’t covered him much in the past except in this rather old article summing up his case.

It appears that he finally crossed a line because the reason for his expulsion was stated as "… preparing and taking actions aimed at forcibly changing the constitutional order, undermining the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the country."

So now Mr. Rizea can add “coups” to the long list of things he has publicly failed at. It would almost be a sad story if not for the wild corruption and criminal activity of this man over the years. He is now off to Romanian prison to account for his various misdeeds in that country.