Weekly Roundup
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. This week we also introduced a new type of article at Moldova Matters a “Deep Dive.” In these articles, we will look into a story or issue in more depth and I’ll do my best to provide context and background. Our first Deep Dive is on Natalia Gavrilita’s proposed COVID-19 crisis response plan and why it matters even though her government will not be voted into power. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Deep Dives and Weekly Roundup sent right to your email!
The Political Crisis Deepens
As we discussed last week, the current political crisis in Moldova stems from the insistence by President Sandu and the PAS Party that the current Parliament does not represent the people and must be dissolved and early elections held. Polls show that an election would likely result in major gains for the PAS Party and the total elimination from Parliament of the parties associated with Plahotniuc. This has led the Socialists, PD and Pro-Moldova (Plahotnuic) and Shor1 parties to ally together to prevent elections by forming a government together. This has led to President Sandu nominating Natalia Gavrilita to form a government while the new Parliamentary Majority led by former President Dodon to propose Mariana Durlesteanu. Both parties have claimed that the others are acting unconstitutionally and the matter was sent to the constitutional court for decision.
So what did the Constitutional Court say?
On Tuesday, the Constitutional Court ruled that the President does not have the right to force a majority of Parliament to consider a Prime Minister if they have proposed another candidate. In theory, this means that the Parliamentary Majority led by former President Dodon can form a government around Mariana Durlesteanu. However, President Sandu has indicated that she will not back down, saying that the fate of the country will be decided either in elections or by a referendum. The referendum refers to the possibility of impeachment, which requires 67 votes in Parliament and then is sent for a public referendum on the recall of the President. President Sandu appears to be standing firm on her position that this Parliament, elected under the state capture of Plahotniuc, and especially this proposed Government, composed of Socialists, Plahotnuic’s members and the Shor party, are unable to legitimately speak for the people.
Former President Dodon stated that “because of the position of Maia Sandu, Moldova is plunging into a deep political and constitutional crisis” and “Only a usurper can afford to replace the country's Constitution.” Referring to the President’s refusal to nominate Mariana Durlesteanu.
“Our Party” leader Renato Usati, who also stands to benefit from early elections, has said that “the only way out of this impasse is revolution” and that he is prepared to lead the people to the streets. Meanwhile Andrei Năstase, the leader of the DA party, and ally of President Maia Sandu, broke with her position on early elections and has said that he is prepared to form a minority government with him as Prime Minister.
Goodness, this sounds like a mess, what happens now?
Indeed this is a mess and there doesn’t seem to be a clear path forward. As we discussed last week, Moldova has essentially been in a slow rolling Constitutional Crisis since the Constitutional Court modified the constitution unilaterally to allow for directly electing the President in 2016. If the President refuses to accept the Parliamentary Majority’s government, there is essentially an impasse.
In my own analysis, there seem to be a few options for how this impasse could be broken.
Compromise on a Minority Government. The proposal of Andrei Năstase as a compromise candidate is apparently something the Socialists are willing to discuss. This would be a major win for Năstase whose party is expected not to return to parliament at all in event of an election. Năstase was previously Minister of the Interior but failed to gain much political traction mostly being known for a scandal involving the hanging and blessing of a large cross in a public building. A shot as prime minister may be a way to rehabilitate his political image ahead of elections. But President Sandu has unequivocally said she will not appoint any Prime Minister and will continue to try and force elections.
Impeachment. In the event that President Sandu refuses to follow the Constitutional Court’s decision, the Parliament, led by the Socialists, may try to impeach her. Combined, the deputies resisting elections have 62 votes, just shy of the 67 needed for impeachment. Experts are divided on whether those 5 votes can be found, but note that changing parties in exchange for large bribes is extremely common in Moldova. Even if they could find the votes this move could be extremely risky for Dodon as a national referendum would need to be organized in order to remove President Sandu from office. Given her huge win in November, and the overwhelming desire in the populace for elections, letting the people vote risks President Sandu winning an even stronger mandate.
Dodon-Dodoff. In the Plahotniuc time, whenever President Dodon would do something like this and create a crisis, the Constitutional Court, which Plahotniuc controlled, would simply remove him from office for 5 minutes so the business of the day could be conducted. Once the necessary decree or law was signed President Dodon was reinstated. It’s possible the Constitutional Court could intervene in a similar case this time to simply defuse the conflict. But removing President Sandu from office in order to install a Socialist, Plahotniuc and Shor government would be extremely unpopular. It is unclear if the court would risk this.
Just staying stuck. Some Socialist deputies have indicated that they can find 70 votes in Parliament to grant the current acting government additional powers to keep working. This 70 vote threshold is technically a constitutional majority so, in theory, they could change the rules of acting governments. But how or if this would work in practice remains to be seen. At best, this would be keeping Moldova hobbled without an effective government for the time being.
Ok, what next?
Well, we will have to wait and see. Tune in next week to find out more.
COVID Infections are Increasing but the Vaccine is On the Way
Cases and hospitalizations continue to rise in Moldova with the 7 day average over 1000 cases for the first time since December. Moldova is now among the last countries in Europe not to have started a vaccination campaign. But, finally, vaccines are on their way! Moldova is expected to receive 20,000 doses of the Astrazeneca vaccine from Romania as part of a 200,000 dose bilateral assistance pledge from Romanian President Iohanis. This is in addition to the promised 200,000 doses from COVAX that are also expected to arrive in the coming weeks (Ukraine received their first COVAX shipment this week). But President Sandu has recently announced that there are delays because Pfizer and Moderna have not approved delivery to Moldova. The President says that this is because the companies have concerns about systemic risk and the rule of law and that the government is working with Romania in trilateral talks to get the companies to agree to delivery.
In addition, the acting Prime Minister has discussed the Sputnik V vaccine with the Russian Ambassador stressing Moldova’s preference for Russia to have WHO approval but also celebrating the recent news indicating strong effects from the Sputnik V injection. Lithuania has also promised to begin providing Moldova with some doses in the coming weeks.
So we are far from out of the woods COVID wise, but the beginning of the end may be in sight for Moldova. I very much hope to write next week about the first doctors and nurses getting the jab.
International Corruption - the UK Sends Moldova a Check
The Government of the United Kingdom is sending nearly £ 500,000 to Moldova that they seized from Luca Filat, son of former Prime Minister Vlad Filat. This money was seized under new UK law that requires a resident to prove the legal means by which they acquired their wealth if asked. Luca Filat, 26, gained a reputation in London for throwing lavish parties and fancy cars including a £ 200,000 Bentley (for a full rundown of his hijinks and spending check out this article on Moldova.org in English). When questioned about the source of his funds Luca had no explanation and the police suspected his fortune was related to his father’s corrupt activities. After a multi year investigation they are finally sending the money back to Moldova.
This story is interesting as it may be a harbinger of things to come. The US Congress is likely to consider passing the CROOK Act soon which would seriously hinder the ability of corrupt oligarchs, and their children, to hide large sums of money in offshore tax havens. We’ll return to this idea in a future Deep Dive because it could have serious implications on Moldova’s future.
Is the Railway System About to Collapse?
Employees of the national railway system in Moldova have not been paid for over 3 months and are fed up. Last week workers in Ocnita threatened to walk off the job and block the tracks if they were not paid. Now, another group of workers in Ungheni have signed a pledge to walk off the job unless they are paid in full by March 10th. Locally, police have threatened workers to keep them from blocking the tracks and Parliament is studying the dire condition of the railroad but has yet to announce actions. Wage arrears for three months in a pandemic are hard to justify in any way. It appears that the financial situation for the railroad is very near bankruptcy but we will have to see what Parliament decides to do next.
Author’s Note: If you notice a mistake in this newsletter or have a suggestion feel free to reach out! dave.in.moldova@gmail.com
Recall, Illian Shor is wanted for orchestrating the “Theft of the Century” and is a fugitive hiding in Israel.