Weekly Roundup
June 16
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Weekly Roundup and other content sent right to your email! And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!
EU Considers Moldova’s and Ukraine’s Candidacy
This week has the potential to be a major turning point in Moldovan history. Politico reports that the European Commission is likely to recommend EU Candidate status for Ukraine and for Moldova this week. Additional reporting from RFERL indicates that the plan is for immediately (as early as today) granting candidate status and then following up with a list of conditions and action items for the countries.
Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, both Ukraine and Moldova applied for EU Candidacy and filed the necessary questionnaire in record time. Following the receipt of these applications the EU has internally struggled with how to respond the this major question of enlargement of the block. On one hand, both Moldova and Ukraine will have to implement major reforms in order to actually join the EU - a process that French President Macron has said could take more than 10 years. On the other hand, geopolitical realities driven by the war have caused the EU to reconsider its slow, bureaucratic process in favor of swifter action designed to meet the moment. Reporting indicating that the commission is likely to recommend candidate status claims that there is at least some consensus for bold action, though the actual process is still unknown. Following such a recommendation the issue will pass to the European Council who are expected to address the subject in a summit held next week.
As a strong indication of support for Moldova, French President Emanuel Macron visited Chisinau on Wednesday. During his visit he met with President Sandu and together they walked through Chisinau’s streets and central parks meeting people on walks and sitting at cafes.
In a joint press conference with President Sandu, Macron said:
“You can count on the support of France and the EU. The purpose of my visit is to show that we intend to strengthen relations between Moldova and France. Moldova has applied to join the EU, and this is the legitimate desire of the country. We will discuss membership candidates at the Council of Europe summit on 23 and 24 June. We see your efforts and note the actions taken,” …
“This response will come with conditions so that we can move forward. Why? Because under normal circumstances we would not be able to grant such a status. But the current geopolitical situation suggests a different approach. We need to reassure the EU countries that the procedures will be followed and also show you support. This will be a clear answer with conditions,”
These statements, and others made during his visit indicate that France is prepared to back a 2 pronged approach to Moldova’s EU aspirations. Firstly, France is backing Moldova and Ukraine’s candidate status but without shortcuts - so the process of actually joining the block could take many years. Secondly, France is proposing a faster mechanism for the 2 countries to more rapidly gain access to many of the benefits of EU membership before they get full status. This mechanism has not been described in any detail at this time.
Critically, Macron indicated that the Transnistria situation is no barrier to Moldova’s EU aspirations, a major change in what had been settled policy that countries with unresolved conflicts were expected to solve the conflict before being considered for membership.
President Macron also pledged 40 million euros in military budget support to Moldova. This would more than double Moldova’s defense budget. The mechanism of this support has not yet been announced.
On Thursday, President Macron left Moldova joining German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi on a trip to Kyiv where they are expected to express similar support to President Zelensky over Ukraine’s EU aspirations.
After a conversation with Prime Minister Gavrilita, Victor Orban of Hungary also announced his country’s support for Moldova’s EU Candidate status.
Responding to the news on Moldova’s potential EU Candidacy, Russian Foriegn Minister Serghei Lavrov said:
“Of course, they are clearly trying to make a second Ukraine out of Moldova. And such a consumer approach of the current Moldovan leadership is very indicative. When they say: “Come on, we will join the EU now, then we'll see what they promise us there. Then we will decide whether to stay in the CIS. Well, other statements,”
He further accused the US and EU of trying to open a “second front” by working to "imprison this country in an anti-russian vein." It is hard to miss the threat in these words.
Rapid Fire Roundup - War in Ukraine
This week there have been lots of important but relatively short news stories that we need to track but don’t warrant a whole section to themselves. For this we’ll do a rapid fire roundup of news regarding the war in Ukraine and it’s impact in Moldova.
Moldova has refused to extradite a Ukrainian MP detained at the border on the basis of an Interpol notice issued by Belarus. Moldovan authorities noted that his trial in Belarus would not be fair and let him go.
Ukraine’s Government has approved medical marijuana for the treatment of cancer, PTSD and other serious ailments. The Minister of Health noted “We are aware of the negative impact of war on mental health. We understand that many people will need medical treatment after the war. Therefore, we have prepared a legislative basis for organizing a full cycle of production of cannabis-based drugs in Ukraine,” This is the first legalization of marijuana in any Eastern European country and is unlikely to draw the expected rebuke from the European Union due to Ukraine’s wartime situation. It is impossible to imagine this move not affecting Moldova over time as legalization movements gain steam around the world and Ukraine positions itself as a leader in a potential new cash-crop.
On June 5th two explosive devices were dropped by drone on a vehicle pool of the Russian army in Transnistria. There were no injuries and the Transnistria authorities accuse Ukraine of being behind the “act of sabotage”
Archeologists excavating the Tiraspol fortress uncovered a new mass grave with 200 bodies of dissidents killed during the Soviet repressions of the 1930s. In total, more than 2000 bodies with gunshot wounds have been discovered in various mass graves at the same site since 1991. One would think residents might reconsider their stance on returning to the Soviet Union with such frequent reminders of the atrocities committed. One would think.
Prince Abdulaziz ibn Faisal bin Abdul-Majid Al Saud of Saudi Arabia visited Transnistria this week. He visited the Bender Fortress, local restaurants and the Nistru river (though he did not swim). This was billed as a tourist visit. The actual purpose is unclear but tourism is highly unlikely. The visit of a royal could be construed as legal recognition of the region but all parties have played down the news and local reporting has not managed to uncover any more information.
Prime Minister Gavrilita has visited Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad al-Thani in Qatar in Doha. During the visit the two heads of government signed an agreement abolishing the short term visa regime between the countries and agreeing to cooperate on unspecified economic and scientific projects. The visit is highly unusual as Moldova rarely engages with gulf states or almost any country outside of the immediate region - especially at such a high level. The purpose and real outcomes of the trip remain a mystery for now.
The Bashkhan (Governor) of Gagauzia has decided to attend the St. Petersburg Economic forum this year. Initially she was scheduled to speak at non-economic events such as “disinformation in a globalized world” (a topic Russia knows quite a bit about) but she later withdrew from the panel. In past years, representatives of over 40 countries attended the event. This year only the Kazakh President, Minister of Health of India, and a representative of the Taliban will be in attendance.
A Busy Weekend in Chisinau
This weekend promises to be a very busy, and possibly tumultuous, weekend in Chisinau. On Sunday June 19th GenderDoc-M will hold the annual Pride Parade in Chisinau. The event was canceled for 2 years because of the pandemic and a return in the current political and global environment has brought even more backlash than normal. Gagauzia and Balti have both banned pride parades even though none were scheduled in their territories. The Orthodox Church has asked Mayor Ceban to block the parade by “any means necessary” and is highly likely to organize a counter-protest. In past years this counter protest involved people throwing eggs and sometimes stones at the marchers while phalanxes of police attempt to keep order.
Mayor Ceban has told Pride organizers that he will not approve the parade and to “do whatever you want in the privacy of your home.” In fact, he does not have the power to deny them a permit or to infringe on marchers’ free speech. Thankfully, he also does not control the capital’s police force who are critical to keeping the event relatively safe.
On the same day as the Pride Parade, the Socialist and Shor parties are organizing an anti-government protest in the city center. This will ensure a lot of people who are almost uniformly hostile to LGBTQ rights will be on the streets.
To make things even more crazy, “activist” Vyacheslav Valko announced yesterday that he was organizing a concert on the central square with Russian Rapper Morgenstern headlining. The concert would be free and nominally aimed at supporting youth. Mr. Valko previously ran for parliament as an independent candidate allowing the wanted criminal Vleceslav Platon to speak for him in TV interviews and debates. Filing his election papers Valko indicated debts of 20,000 euros, no property and no income whatsoever. He claimed he “lives frugally.” He says a Moldovan woman living in Canada named Victoria Shapa is paying for the concert but journalists efforts to locate such a person or even prove that such a person exists have come up short.
The concert is scheduled from 15:00 - 22:00 in the exact same location as the Shor anti-government protest which is scheduled at 17:00. What exactly is going on here is unclear. It’s possible that this is a cheap trick to get thousands of people to unknowingly attend an anti-government protest. In any case, it means that lots and lots of people will be on the streets this Sunday.
Morgenstern’s manager has already announced that the concert may not take place due to the public backlash. He noted that they did not know who funded the concert and only coordinated with the events management company. The manager noted that “strange overtones” of the event and stated that Morgenstern does not like to participate in “strange things.”
It may be a very strange weekend indeed.
Economic Updates
Moldova and Romania are beginning to make progress speeding up the processing of trucks at the border. Last Saturday, lines of trucks stretched 6 kilometers from the border. By midweek this was cut in half to 3 km. The countries are working quickly to establish new processes of joint customs to speed the line further.
Unfortunately, as the hot season has arrived Moldova’s poor infrastructure is likely to exacerbate the problem. Chisinau announced this week a ban on trucks over 20 tons using the roads between the hours of 10 am and 8 pm. Rules such as this are put in place over much of Moldova during the summer because the poor quality asphalt will become soft in the heat and the heavy trucks will destroy the roads on hot days. This is unlikely to help Moldova’s efforts to speed up truck shipments as all goods now need to be re-routed from the port of Odessa.
The Minister of Agriculture responded to critics this week by conducting an in-depth interview with news site Newsmaker. In the interview, he explained the export ban on grains as a mechanism to make sure Moldova did not go hungry before the new harvest. He talked about the shortages the country is facing from shifting logistics and supply lines and attempted to justify government policy as being primarily concerned with local food security measures. As we discussed in our guest Explainer article earlier this week these assertions do not correspond with the situation being reported by farmers who say that they have grain far in excess of the needed supply for Moldova and that government policy is very economically damaging to them. The Socialist and Communist parties brought a no-confidence vote against the Minster this week but then hardly voted for it - he survived the vote 45-5.
Energy Crisis
The most acute economic crisis in Moldova remains in the field of energy. Gasoline and diesel prices continue to skyrocket and in many parts of the country farmers are unable to buy diesel as stations report being out of fuel. Many EU countries are attempting to blunt the impact of sky high prices at the pump with government policy. Germany now has a single ticket for public transport (including regional trains trains) at 9 euro. Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands all put in place tax cuts on fuel. France is paying subsidies of 15 cents / liter. Moldova’s prices at the pump are technically lower than most of Europe but far far higher as a percent of income. Prices in Moldova as a percent of “national average salary” are 2x more than Romania, 3x more than Russia, and 8x more than Western Europe.
One major difference with other European countries is that Moldova does not have a free market for fuel prices. The National Energy Regulator approves maximum prices on the basis of a formula using the Platt’s Quotient, USD to MDL conversion rate, allowable markup and applicable taxes. Some of the shortages are presumed to be caused by wholesalers holding back their fuel supplies and waiting for the inevitable weekly announcement from regulators that the maximum price can go up. The Socialist Party proposed a 50% reduction in the excise tax on fuel but was voted down by PAS who called the initiative “populist” and claimed it would negatively affect tax revenues (well, yeah). Currently the only policy the government has in place to deal with the problem is a tax-refund scheme for farmers. In the one month since this program was announced only 1 farmer has managed to apply and zero people have received compensation. It would be fair therefore to say that the government, rather uniquely in Europe, has no plan to combat rising fuel prices.
Crime and Corruption
Igor Dodon’s wife Galina Dodon was brought in for questioning this week and charged with “complicity in illegal enrichment” by prosecutors. The key charge stems from the family acquiring 21 million lei (over $1 million dollars) in property over the period 2014 - 2021 when they can only prove an official income of 3 million lei ($155,000). Galina Dodon has been released but is unable to leave the country for the next 2 months as the investigation proceeds.
Meanwhile, Veronica Dragalin has been appointed as the country’s new Anti-Corruption Prosecutor. Dragalin is the daughter of Elena Dragolin, founder of Moldova AID and Moldovan-American Convention, one of the most prominent members of the Moldovan Diaspora living in America. Currently Veronica Dragalin is serving as the Deputy Attorney General of the United States in the section on public corruption and civil rights in the Central District of California.
Ending on a High Note!
Much of the news these days is confusing, dark or both. With that in mind it is incredible to think that Moldova may become a Candidate for EU membership in the very near future. This would be a massive step on Moldova’s road to become a modern European nation and the aspirations of Moldovans to be fully part of the European family. We will follow the news of how this develops closely but it is clear that the steady efforts of the Moldovan and Ukrainian governments of the last months are managing to promise a brighter future for the countries in these very dark times.
And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!
Another great update on current affairs. Thanks David. I read your prior post about the farmer's dilemma. Seems to me that the government will finally allow grain exports when transport trucks can't use the roads due to the heat...
Currently reading Robert D. Kaplan's Adriatic, and came across this quote from a former Croatian foreign minister Vesna Pusić: "The long process of joining the EU was better than membership itself. The process forced us to aspire to liberal democratic values. But once we were admitted to the EU we put membership in our pocket, so to speak, and reverted to our old ways." (Croatia was admitted in 2013; Kaplan notes that the EU was becoming less idealistic and more bureaucratic/political by then and of course, now it's worse.)
Moldova can get some good work done with official Candidacy. It'll be interesting to follow Ms. Dragalin with her hands-on experience in the fully-functioning anti-corruption infrastructure of California.