Weekly Roundup
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This week has been extremely eventful on all fronts. If you missed it, please check in with Monday’s Midweek Update which outlined the events of the weekend leading into the state of Constitutional Crisis between the Parliament and the Constitutional Court and Presidency.
Constitutional Crisis - Elections at Last
As this week started, the Constitutional Crisis that we outlined in the Midweek Update sparked a flurry of actions inside and outside of Moldova seeking to bring an end to the situation. The Russian Ministry of Foriegn Affairs accused the “west” of interfering in Moldova’s independence while the US, EU and Romania doubled down with strong statements defending constitutional order in Moldova. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court quickly asserted its authority as the sole arbiter of Constitutional Questions and suspended Parliamentary decrees and laws meant to undermine the court. Recall, Mr. Dodon’s Socialists tried to fire a Constitutional Court Judge and replace her with their hand selected candidate. While the Court itself rebuked this Socialist appointed replacement “Judge” Lupashcu announced he would “resign” from the position that the Court said he never really had.
Meanwhile, in a further blow to the Socialists and their Parliamentary allies, the Constitutional Court overturned a law whereby Parliament stripped various functions from the Presidency right after President Sandu was elected. In particular, Parliament took for itself the role overseeing Moldova’s Security and Information Service (SIS) which is a bit like a combination of America’s CIA and FBI together. This ruling gives President Sandu the national security responsibility that her predecessors had and rebukes Parliament for trying to neuter the office once Mr. Dodon was out of it.
In responding to the Actions of the Constitutional Court Mr. Dodon took an increasingly aggressive and belligerent tone. He said that, by stacking the Court, the Socialists were trying to “save the court” and they were thwarted by a conspiracy of “Western Ambassadors, and the parties of Maya Sandu, Renato Usatii and unionists.” He went on to say that if President Sandu’s PAS party and their allies win the election it will lead to the collapse of the Moldovan State.
The State of Emergency
Recall that the Socialists tried to take over the Constitutional Court to overturn their ruling that, according to the Constitution, it is time for elections. The President must dissolve Parliament and set a date for elections, but cannot do so while the Country is in a “State of Emergency.” This Wednesday the Constitutional Court heard a case brought by the PAS Party challenging the legality of this State of Emergency on the grounds that it was only declared in order to prevent elections. While hearing the case, the Constitutional Court asked a pointed series of questions going through the COVID related restrictions one by one to determine if any of them required a legal “State of Emergency” to function. They did not, and the Court ruled the State of Emergency null and void.
Following the ruling, protestors who had been gathered outside the Constitutional Court every day since the Socialists tried to pack the court, celebrated this victory for constitutional law and the coming of elections.
Elections
Following the ruling of the Constitutional Court President Sandu signed a decree to dissolve Parliament and set a date for new elections on July 11th.
Mr. Dodon responded angrily by continuing to blame the Pandemic situation on President Sandu, calling her a western puppet, and continuing to say that the existence of Moldova itself is threatened by NATO encroachment. But, the message was essentially a capitulation. He stated that he “you want elections?! We’re going to elections!”
So is this the end of the Political and Constitutional Crisis?
It sure looks like it. As if to help wrap things up the Prosecutor General announced he would not seek charges against any members of Parliament on the attempt to “usurp power” last week. He states that the actions were politically complicated and he cannot prove intent. Further, he noted, that the Constitutional Court defended itself so everything is ok. President Sandu does not agree, noting that this Prosecutor General has still not brought charges in Plahotnuic’s June 2019 attempt to seize power by using mobs to occupy government buildings. Either way, the Prosecutor General is independent and I imagine he was very relieved that the ball never fully came into his court.
It seems that this 4 month long crisis is finally coming to a close with President Sandu having succeeded in forcing Parliamentary Elections. In a sense though, this is only the storm before the storm as the election campaign is already promising to be very ugly.
Politics - Campaign Messages Start
And they aren’t pretty. Mr. Dodon barely let the ink dry on the decree setting the date for elections before he began giving interviews outlining the Socialists Priorities. And if we were to summarize his election message it would be one word - fear.
He said that if the Pro-EU parties win, Moldova will be fully controlled by external parties and cease to be an independent country. That President Sandu will ban all parties she disagrees with. And that PAS, President Sandu and the EU will lead an attack on the Orthodox Church, and traditional values. They will cancel the retirement age and pensions and make everyone work forever. They will force people to speak Romanian and create “problems” with Transnistria and Gagauzia. Quote "The victory of the collective West in early parliamentary elections may lead to the collapse of the Moldovan state."
The Socialists further leaned into a socially conservative message with one MP saying that the actions of the Constitutional Court were a “Sin during the week of Easter.” Mr. Dodon put the icing on the cake by promising to amend the Constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman and to criminalize gay propoganda. Recall, “gay propodanga laws” passed in Russia are used as a systemic mechanism to persecute and prosecute anyone without a standard sexual or gender identity.
Genderdoc-MD, Moldova’s leading, and only, LGBTQ Rights group stressed that these statements are those of a populist politician looking to rally hate and fear against an “enemy within.”
Goodness, that was a lot! What about the Pandemic and the Economy?
It appears that even in this time of Health and Economic Crisis, some actors will lean into the culture wars as their primary message. That is not new, and can be seen as a deeply unfortunate export from America’s toxic politics of the past few years. But what is new here is the direct way in which Mr. Dodon is willing to identify his enemies as the US, the EU and Nato while explicitly trying to tie the Pro-EU parties to these cultural issues. It remains to be seen how this will work, but if the polls are any indication, Mr. Dodon has an uphill path.
The Opposition Campaign Message
It’s too early to tell what message President Sandu’s PAS party or other opposition groups will take into the election. But as a preview, President Sandu met with the Moldovan Chamber of Commerce this week to discuss the devastating effects of the pandemic on small business. She promised that her plan has 3 main parts: Vaccines. Fighting Corruption. And reforming the bureaucratic processes that make business so hard here.
It seems likely that there will be a stark contrast between a message of hope and technical solutions to complex problems vs culture wars and fear. But time will tell. The official campaign period lasts 1 month before elections so the parties have a little time or organize their Platforms and mobilize their supporters.
COVID-19 and the Vaccination Campaign
The 7 day average of new infections and deaths continue to fall with 424 and 18 respectively. As you can see the trendlines continue to fall strengthening the case that this wave is over.
Blue line represents the new daily totals and the red line represents the 7 day moving average
But as good as this news is, we should also keep in mind just how small Moldova is. Scaled for population 18 deaths a day is equivalent to 2200 deaths per day in the US. Right now, the US daily rate is 700 deaths per day. This would translate to 4 deaths per day when scaled for Moldova. It’s important to take all of these numbers in context. We have all become used to huge and tragic figures during this pandemic so Moldova’s 18 deaths a day may seem small. But Moldova is a very small country.
Vaccines Continue to Arrive
This week has seen unexpected good news on the vaccine front. Moldova was expecting a shipment of 100,000 doses that the Government purchased of the Chinese Sinofarm Vaccine. Instead, China sent 250,000 doses. 150,000 Sinofarm and 100,000 Coronovac. The extra 150,000 doses were a donation that came with large amounts of PPE and other equipment to assist Moldova in the fight against the pandemic.
Furthermore, Sputnik V arrived from Russia at long last. It seems though, that Russia and China have different playbooks. While the Chinese underpromised and over delivered, Russia chose the opposite path delivering 71,000 doses of the promised 142,000. This was especially bad for Mr. Dodon as he was riding on the plane with the vaccines and still giving press conferences that there were two times as many doses as there were actually in the boxes. After 5 days of bad press coverage it was announced that the Russians would be sending a new plane with the rest of the doses. Even so, this episode was a major mixup in communications and it really seems that Mr. Dodon can’t catch a break.
So who can get a Vaccine?
Technically, Moldova is in Phase 2 and is working to vaccinate front line workers. This week, firefighters and rescuers started getting shots. President Sandu has said that by late May there will be large deliveries of AstraZeneca such that anyone who wants to get vaccinated can. She herself has said she is looking forward to getting the AstraZeneca shot. The reality on the ground right now is a little more confusing though. Moldova has received 613,970 doses so far and only administered 145,117. Partly, that’s because lots of Sputnik V and Sinovac just arrived and have yet to be distributed. But part of the reality is that there has been a serious lack of uptake by people worried about the AstraZeneca Vaccine and by people who buy into Mr. Dodon’s frequent statements that all Western Vaccines are bad. Because of this, it became known this week that Family Doctors1 have started making lists for more general vaccination and even calling people in for doses if there are excess ones about to expire. It is totally unclear if this is policy or just good sense and local initiative not to let doses go to waste. In either case, if you are in Moldova waiting for a vaccine you should let your family doctor know. At the very least they will know you want one when Phase 3 comes along. At best, you may get called in quite soon.
What About Restrictions?
Well, this is confusing. With the cancelation of the State of Emergency the country has gone back to a state of “National Health Emergency.” This led to the re-announcement of restrictions but things remain very unclear. For example, masks are still required in public spaces, but nothing at all was said about restaurants. It’s not clear if this means there are no restrictions for restaurants, they keep the 8pm closing time, or they revert to the 10pm closing time of the last state of national health emergency. No one knows. And there have been no clarifying announcements. Most likely we can expect restrictions to be shifting over the course of the next week as they figure things out.
Corruption
Ilan Shor, wanted for his role in the Theft of the Billion USD from Moldovan banks, has announced he is prepared to give back the money in order to return to Moldova and be a politician. He still claims to be innocent, but cryptically offered to pay the stolen amount himself and “extract” it from the real villains afterward. This did not get a very sympathetic response with commentators likening it to someone who steals from you, invests the money for years, gets even more wealthy, and then offers to give it back. But only if you let him be a politician and have enough power to steal again.
Shor would not disclose his location (widely believed to be Israel where he is a citizen) but said he is “safe.”
Meanwhile, RISE Moldova released an investigation explaining quite clearly why Shor’s was released on house arrest and allowed to escape the country in the first place. Simply put, the judge got quite rich off the deal. The details are too complicated to relate here, but I strongly recommend reading the article (google translate works fine) and noting the web of money and crooked dealing around this very important, and very unresolved theft.
Ending on a High Note
This week has been so chock full of political news I can honestly say not much else broke through. So my high note is the seeming ending of this crisis. Moldova has been in a state of limbo during one of the most profound health and economic crises the country has ever faced. This cannot be undone and will have serious effects for years to come. But the idea that the people will have a vote and select the Parliament and Government that will lead the country into the post-pandemic recovery is good news and shows the resilience of even fragile democratic institutions.
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Family Doctors are Moldova’s network of General Practitioners or GP’s. If you have health insurance through work or otherwise in Moldova you must be registered with a Family Doctor and they act as your referrer to other clinics and for specialized care.