Weekly Roundup
May 11, 2023
May 9 in Moldova
The 9th of May is historically a day of competing narratives and polarization in Moldova. The day marks the end of WW2 in Europe, observed as “Victory Day” by the former Soviet Union and Russia, as well as the “Day of Europe” celebrating European integration by the EU. Since coming to power, Vladimir Putin has used the day as a jingoistic celebration of Soviet (and Russian) force of arms. Walking the line between celebrating victory, commemorating the victims and heroes of the Second World War and celebrating Europe makes for an interesting dance for Moldovan politicians.
President Sandu, Prime Minister Recean and other members of the government laid flowers at the national WW2 memorial to commemorate the day. Speaking at the event the President said:
“We are here today to honor the memory of the tens of millions of people who were killed during World War II. Because of this war, we have better understood how important peace is,”
The Prime Minister spoke even more directly to the meaning of the day saying “we are commemorating, not celebrating.”
Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban also sought to walk a careful line arriving first in the morning to lay flowers at the memorial before returning to the Primaria (city hall) where the Moldovan and European flags were both raised to celebrate Europe Day.
The message from both the government and the newly minted “pro-European” mayor was clear - we commemorate those who sacrificed so much to defeat Nazi Germany, and we celebrate the united Europe that both came from peace and has kept the peace.
The contrast with the pro-Russian parties was starker than ever in the face of the war. There were 2 dueling organizations of the “Immortal Regiment” where people carry photos of family members who died during the war. The larger one was organized by the Socialist and Communist parties and included a procession of old Soviet cars followed by marchers with Soviet flags and many people dressed in Red Army uniforms - either veterans of the war or children in costume.
The Shor Party held a separate march drawing a smaller crowd. Russia’s Ambassador to Moldova joined Dodon and Voronin in laying flowers at the memorial where he refused to answer questions from journalists about the war in Ukraine. Mr. Dodon, speaking to journalists did not shy away from his pro-Putin stance saying:
“I think that Putin is a statesman and a patriot of his country.” … “Moldova must return the strategic partnership with Russia. This does not mean that we are against Europe. But we are against the imposition of certain values on us, for example, LGBT people,”
May 9th events were held in 500 localities around the country with an estimated 43,000 people attending. Police said that 180 persons were noted for wearing the St. George’s ribbon or other “symbols of aggression” leading to warnings or fines including 9 members of parliament and 5 officials from Gagauzia.
Just ahead of the celebration of what has become a focal point of the secular religion of "Soviet nostalgia,” Moldova’s Security and Information Service SIS announced that they had reached an agreement with the National Archives to turn over 2000 documents from the former KGB archives in Moldova. These documents are:
“Information about gross violations of human rights committed during the Soviet period on the current territory of Moldova will become available to the general public and scientific circles in order to rehabilitate the victims and establish the historical truth,”
International Affairs & Security
Moldova continues to prepare for the upcoming June 1st European Political Community EPC Summit in Chisinau. 40 Presidents, Prime Ministers and EU block leaders have already confirmed their attendance. Security preparations continue to make the news with the government announcing that they will be closing the airport and Moldovan airspace to commercial traffic on June 1st and 2nd to accommodate the large volume of flights of dignitaries.
Moldovan Fulger special forces and police have continued to train and prepare with international advisors and support for the summit. This included additional Black Hawk flights over the last week including night flights to practice use of night vision and various exercises at repelling from a hovering helicopter. Police have announced a full “dress rehearsal” for the Summit this Sunday which will involve the full closure of all main roads in the Center of the city, Botanica district and on the road between Chisinau and the village of Bulboaca where dignitaries will be meeting. So if you’re in Chisinau this weekend don’t plan on driving anywhere for the 5 hours between 9 am and 2 pm.
Here are a few additional international affairs and security stories of the week to watch:
14 Moldova citizens evacuated from Sudan - The Moldovan foreign ministry coordinated the evacuation of 14 citizens as fighting continues in Sudan. They were flown out on Russian and French planes with 13 Moldovans winding up in Moscow where they are being supported by the Moldovan embassy there.
New financing options for Moldova - This week the European Parliament voted to increase the macro financial assistance budget for Moldova by 145 million euros, up to a total of 295 million euros. This money will be provided to Moldova contingent on maintaining IMF commitments as well as achieving various development milestones agreed on with the EU. Japan has also announced 100 million euros in “preferential loans” for various development projects in Moldova. The loans will have a 30 year payment period after a 10 year grace period.
Moldova and Romania sign a joint agreement with Amazon’s AWS - The partnership with AWS will support public and private digital infrastructure with a focus on cybersecurity and creating interoperable digital platforms for citizen services. Much of the focus will be on digital security with the agreement intending on "implementing services and systems to ensure government continuity in case of emergency in both countries."
President Sandu sat with the Financial Times for an interview - In the widely reported interview the President spoke about Russia’s history of interfering in Moldova and ongoing efforts to politically destabilize the country, first with energy blackmail and now with street protests. She emphasized that if the Ukrainian army had not stopped Russia last spring that Russian tanks “would not have stopped at the Moldovan border.” Asked whether she would stay or flee in such a scenario the President said "Yes, sure. I would stay,”
Transnistria requests more “peacekeepers” from Russia - The Transnistrian “authorities” noted that there are currently only 450 Russian soldiers patrolling the security zone while the Joint Control Commission technically caps the total at 3100. Russia has not had this larger number of “peacekeepers” there since 1995. The Moldovan reintegration bureau responded with a very technical (and confusing) statement basically calling into doubt the standing of the Transnistrian representatives to make this request. Justifying their request the Transnistrian authorities said:
"The peacekeeping forces are the main security factor on the Dniester and the main obstacle to the hot heads that exist in Chisinau and Kiev. As long as Russia's peacekeeping mission continues, the Republic of Moldova is limited in any plans and military preparations against Transnistria",
President Sandu attended the coronation of King Charles III saying -
“Congratulations to King Charles III and Queen Camilla! Moldova sends warm wishes for prosperity, happiness and good health,”
Political News
The main news of the week continues to be the fallout from the regional elections in Gagauzia where the candidates for the Shor and Socialist party candidates essentially tied in the first round of voting. Police and Anticorruption prosecutors have been investigating bribery and illegal party financing in the campaign and on election day with a main focus on Evghenia Guțul from the Shor Party. The authorities allege that the party and candidate “knowingly accepted financing from an organized criminal group” and presented evidence that the party paid activists 15,000 lei if they could organize 30 votes for their candidate. The CNA (anti-corruption police) said in a press release
"Based on the materials presented by the INI employees, searches were authorized at the homes, cars and offices of the Comrat and Vulcăneşti formation, targeting 10 people. Following them, lists and documents were collected with information about people and the financial means paid, cash, mobile phones and other carriers of information. No one was detained. The Anticorruption Prosecutor's Office is leading the criminal investigation,"
Additionally the CNA published pictures, videos and phone calls showing the organized transport of voters to the polls, something not allowed under Moldovan law.
On May 9th the police presented evidence of voter bribery, paid transport, etc as well as facts pertaining to the use of illegal / unregistered funds to the Central Election Commission CEC.
In addition to criminal liability, the CEC has the ability to sanction candidates for illegal election practices up to disqualifying them from the election. This happened in 2021 when the CEC and the courts ruled to disqualify Shor candidate Marina Tauber from the Balti mayoral elections for illegal party financing. It is possible that we’ll see something similar here before the second round of voting. If so, that would lead to the Socialist candidate winning by default.
Here are a few other stories to watch from the past week:
New details in the corruption probe in Chisinau city hall - CNA officers continue to investigate the embezzlement of funds and theft of supplies that were donated to support Ukrainian refugees. Investigators searching city public health director Boris Gîlca’s home found appliances including 2 microwaves, 2 space heaters, 4 sleeping bags, 8 boxes of plates and cups and a large amount of canned food. Gîlca resigned after his detention but his resignation was not accepted by Mayor Ceban. The Mayor admitted to possible problems with the donations and promised to remove from office anyone who is proved guilty. At the same time he backs Boris Gîlca and says that accusations against him are a “smear campaign” by the government against a good official.
The national program for learning Romanian for national minorities has launched - The program offers free classes to adults who wish to improve their Romanian skills or start from scratch. People can apply online and 1,700 people already are signed up. The Ministry of Education has planned for 2500 teachers and school officials, 4000 private individuals and an unknown number of Ukrainian refugees to attend classes in the first year.
Parliament introduces draft law for independent media development - The law wants to create a regulatory framework for print and online media, a national media register and tax incentives for new media organizations. It will also provide an unspecified amount of state aid to regional and local media outlets that focus on “socially important topics” such as the “unification of society: the study of the state language by national minorities, European integration.” Grants will be allocated to NGOs representing media companies to assure fair distribution. The law does not have a lot of details, especially about how much funding the government will allocate. Right now Moldova scores very well on the press freedom index, just behind the UK and well ahead of the US. At the same time local media outside the capital and larger cities is very underdeveloped leading to a failure to identify, and check local corruption as well as other problems.
More Shor Protests Sunday May 7th - The Shor Party again protested last weekend resulting in 27 people being detained on suspicious behavior and some admitting to having been paid. Some protestors were found with cans of lighter fluid and apparently planned to start fires. Overall the protest was not very large and police prevented any serious disturbances.
Economic News
As we discussed last week, the problem of Ukrainian grain imports at below market prices has been roiling wheat and grain markets in the region. The EU announced the temporary ban on some grains while lifting quotas for dairy, honey, eggs and some other products from Ukraine. The block will provide additional subsidies for farmers impacted by the new goods and will not stop the transit of Ukrainian grain through the EU to other countries.
Moldova’s Minister of Agriculture Vladimir Bolea announced the country’s intention to join the EU ban saying:
“The amount of domestic grain in warehouses is large, and this puts pressure on farmers. They are worried that they will not have room for a new crop. At the same time, the dynamics of grain exports is declining, logistics costs have increased, and prices on international exchanges have collapsed. Our farmers need to use their own grain reserves and prepare for the new agricultural year,”
The Minister met with his Ukrainian counterpart to explain the decision and assured him of Moldova’s continued support for Ukraine. That did not work however, as following the meeting and announcement the Ukrainian government prepared a decree in response saying:
“We informed Chisinau: any restriction on the part of Moldova will be considered an extremely unfriendly step and will entail an urgent ban on all imports from Moldova,”
This caused a rapid reversal from the Moldovan government with Minister Bolea stating:
“Introducing restrictions on imports would not solve anything. This would neither increase selling prices for Moldovan farmers nor reduce costs. This solution would give zero results. On the contrary, Ukraine would impose restrictions on the import of Moldovan products, and then much would be lost,”
The Minister cited historically minuscule imports from Ukraine in his assertion that this really won’t be a problem. Historical numbers don’t much hold up however as Moldova is now the only country bordering Ukraine that has not restricted grain imports. The price of grain in Moldova is half of last year’s price and with one and a half months before harvest the country’s grain storage facilities are overfilled.
Unfortunately this situation starkly highlights Moldova’s economic vulnerability as a small country outside of the EU and unable to rely on membership in the block to protect its interests against those of larger countries like Ukraine. The Moldovan government plans to support farmers with increased subsidies and a 100% waiver on the excise tax on diesel fuel as a support mechanism.
Ministry of Economy Proposes Visa Liberalization
Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba has proposed visa liberalization policies in order to increase Moldova’s declining labor market. The proposal would allow citizens of around 50 countries to work in Moldova provided the obtain a residency permit. Previously obtaining a residency permit was hardest, if not impossible, when it was arranged specifically for work contracts. Companies were required to prove conclusively that no Moldovan citizen was capable of doing the job before hiring. This has loosened up somewhat in the last few years but remained bureaucratic and time consuming. Speaking about the proposal Minister Alaiba said:
“Our companies, both large and small, could grow much faster if they could recruit more people. Because of this structural constraint, we miss opportunities for economic growth and development year after year. When an investor comes to start a business in Moldova, he does not have to start his journey by applying for a work permit. And if he wants to come with his team, he should do it simply and easily, without bureaucracy. And when a Moldovan company wants to hire specialists from abroad, it should not stumble over a work permit,”
The proposal includes all EU countries plus Albania, the USA, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Switzerland, Georgia, Great Britain, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine, Iceland, Israel, Japan, South Korea, and Liechtenstein.