It occurs to me though, that is Transnistria doesn't get enough to sell energy to Moldova, their economy will take a substantial hit, from a weak starting position. Or maybe i overestimate the amount involved?
It would be interesting at some point top see an analysis of what happens if/when Transnistria collapses.
Come o that, given the increasing number of serious commentators, (Including London's Financial Times), saying Russia's economy will probably collapse this year, what the impact of that would be.
Hi Nick, very good point. I held off on diving into this because I think we'll get a bit more news and analysis in the coming days. What I'm particularly watching for is how much capacity GazProm reserves in the Trans-Balkan pipeline. This will give us a really clear idea of how much of the status quo ante they plan to restore.
As I wrote in my perspective article I buy the idea that the Kremlin is leaving the door open on this crisis and that they may want the option of extending it further. To that end I think they will take actions that continue to hurt Moldova financially but also keep pressure on the region's oligarchs as well.
As to Russia collapsing I find that very hard to believe. I know serious groups have been writing about it and I know that they are under serious pressure right now. But I keep thinking that so many assumptions go into statements like that - many of them cultural and societal. I have the bad feeling that Russia has a special resiliency based on the population's ability to take abuse. We'll see. If Russia really did have an economic crisis that forced them to seek a hasty peace in Ukraine then that would be interesting times for Transnistria indeed...
Really interesting and important stuff.
It occurs to me though, that is Transnistria doesn't get enough to sell energy to Moldova, their economy will take a substantial hit, from a weak starting position. Or maybe i overestimate the amount involved?
It would be interesting at some point top see an analysis of what happens if/when Transnistria collapses.
Come o that, given the increasing number of serious commentators, (Including London's Financial Times), saying Russia's economy will probably collapse this year, what the impact of that would be.
Hi Nick, very good point. I held off on diving into this because I think we'll get a bit more news and analysis in the coming days. What I'm particularly watching for is how much capacity GazProm reserves in the Trans-Balkan pipeline. This will give us a really clear idea of how much of the status quo ante they plan to restore.
As I wrote in my perspective article I buy the idea that the Kremlin is leaving the door open on this crisis and that they may want the option of extending it further. To that end I think they will take actions that continue to hurt Moldova financially but also keep pressure on the region's oligarchs as well.
As to Russia collapsing I find that very hard to believe. I know serious groups have been writing about it and I know that they are under serious pressure right now. But I keep thinking that so many assumptions go into statements like that - many of them cultural and societal. I have the bad feeling that Russia has a special resiliency based on the population's ability to take abuse. We'll see. If Russia really did have an economic crisis that forced them to seek a hasty peace in Ukraine then that would be interesting times for Transnistria indeed...