Quick Hit: Polls and Election Updates
October 4, 2024
New EU Referendum Poll Released
This week Watchdog and CBS-AXA released a new poll measuring respondents intentions with the EU referendum. Recall the referendum will ask voters if they support Moldova joining the European Union Yes / No. The poll showed the following top-line numbers:
Yes - 63.2%
No - 32.4%
Undecided / No Answer - 4.4%
This polls showed a 6 point increase in those intending to vote yes from a similar poll in April as well as a decrease in the undecided voters.
The poll also showed positive trends in terms of the number of people intending to vote as well as resilience against some of the top propaganda narratives pushed by the Kremlin. The report is worth reading in full.
Author’s Note: Like all public polling in Moldova, these numbers reflect only voters in Moldova on territory controlled by the Chisinau government. The numbers do not include voters in the diaspora who lean heavily pro-European or those in Transnistria.
Illicit Finance, Vote Buying and Shor’s People
The other top news of this week concerns the efforts by Ilan Shor and the Kremlin to influence the outcome of Moldova’s presidential election and referendum. On October 3rd Chief of the National Police Viorel Cernuețanu and Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Veronica Dragalin held a press conference outlining illicit financing and voter bribery. Chief Cernuețanu stated:
"We are facing an unprecedented phenomenon for Moldova and for neighboring and European countries. We are witnessing a large-scale phenomenon of financing and corruption aimed at disrupting the electoral process on the territory of Moldova,"
They asserted that police tracked money transfers of at least 15 million euros in September alone. They explained that this money is being used for around 130 territorial coordinators who recruit activists and open bank accounts in Russia for them. These coordinators are paid 45,000 lei / month. Then there are 1,927 sector leaders working under the coordinators who are paid 4600 lei / month. They manage more than 50,000 activists being paid 4600 lei / month who recruit and bribe voters who are paid 900 - 1800 lei / month.1
Following this press conference, on October 4th Chief Cernuețanu gave an interview to TV8 where he was asked if candidates benefiting from this bribery will be removed from the election. The Chief stated that the investigative bodies will forward what evidence they have of criminality to the Central Election Commission (CEC) which is responsible for these choices. The chief specified that there are 3 candidates potentially facing this sanction but did not name them.
Based on previous reporting, Vasilie Tarlev and Victoria Fortuna are known to be associated with Ilan Shor. The 3rd candidate has not been publicly reported.
Also on October 3rd Deschide MD reported that Pobeda (Victory) block activists are urging their members to vote for Victoria Furtună. These instructions were recorded covertly by party members and shared with Deschide MD. In the recording Chance Party leader for the Dondușeni district, Cristina Crudu, says that she was instructed “from above” (explicitly referring to Shor) to support Furtuna. She told them to vote for Furtuna and to quietly push her candidacy, but also that if she is removed from the election Shor has “plans B, C, D, E.”
Victoria Furtuna has denied connections to Shor.
Author’s Note: I’m traveling this week for a wedding and while I’ll try and write little updates on key news stories I’ll mostly be writing a larger Weekly Roundup catching up on all the events of the week by around Wednesday next week. The pace of news is expected to accelerate as we approach the October 20th elections so stay tuned to Moldova Matters to keep up!
To understand this it helps to take an example - even a rough one based on napkin math. The average monthly salary in Moldova is 12,600 lei / month. This number includes some taxes so let’s call it 11,000 lei / month take home. So 4600 lei is around 42% of the national average salary. Taxes vary widely by US states but the average annual salary for 2023 in the US was $59,384 / year or $4948 / month. Scaling the voter bribes to this number we get:
- $20,600 / month for regional coordinators
- $2078 / month for Sector Leaders and Activists
- $405 - $798 / month for voters
The point being that these are bribes that are materially very substantial to people in Moldova - especially to people outside the cities who have far lower salaries than those in cities.