Perspective: The Kremlin's Game in Transnistria
Is this grand strategy? or tactical maneuvering? January 10, 2025
Today I’m going to wade into somewhat dangerous waters and attempt to unpack what is actually going on with this energy crisis. I’ll try and set up some context for where we are and then provide my best take on what’s going on now. This is a subscriber only article with a free preview up front. Please consider subscribing to support the work of Moldova Matters in 2025.
Setting the Stage
Before we start speculating let’s start with what we know. Here’s a roundup of the most relevant details of how this has unfolded so far:
The Beginning: This crisis was started because Ukraine chose not to renew their 6 year contract for transit of Russian gas. This was announced more than 12 months in advance and the cessation of gas supplies on January 1st was a surprise to no one.
The Current Situation: As of January 10th Moldova has maintained a stable electrical supply. This may or may not continue due to various factors including cooling weather and unpredictable demand. The main effect of the crisis in Moldova has been massive increases in energy prices which take effect today. In Transnistria around 250,000 residents of the region have been without hot water, central heat or gas heat for 10 days. Shifts to electric heaters and stoves has overloaded the power grid and forced the region to implement rolling blackouts of up to 8 hours a day. In Europe, no country is significantly suffering from the cessation of Russian gas transit and Hungary continues to buy Russia gas via the Trans-Balkan pipeline.1
Russia’s Choice: Right up until January 1st no one knew if Russia would cut off Transnistria. They are technically able to re-route gas via the Trans-Balkan pipeline and continue supply as before. Back in September 2023, when the planned cutoff of Ukrainian transit was announced, Transnistrian “leader” Vadim Krasnoselsky assured residents that they would continue getting gas via this route. Moldovan officials and those of energy companies have discussed this transit with GazProm and they have also agreed that they are capable of making these deliveries. Russia made a political decision to stop providing natural gas to Transnistria on January 1st.
Moldova’s Unpreparedness: Despite ample articles and commentary (some from me) there appears to have been no plan to manage this very foreseeable crisis. When GazProm first indicated that they saw the delivery of Transnistrian gas as tied to Moldova’s alleged debts the government seemed to panic. Prime Minister Recean sacked 3 top energy officials and assumed the position of Minister of Energy personally. He then asked Parliament to declare a state of emergency. Compounding the crisis of Transnistria being without energy and Moldova’s electrical prices climbing, MoldovaGaz failed to fully purchase gas for Moldova at cheap summer rates necessitating a gas price hike as well. Whether by distraction (elections) or by failure of imagination2 the government came into this crisis unprepared and with limited tools.
Transnistria’s Nonchalance: Warm weather has somewhat cushioned Transnistrian residents so far, but they show signs of clear anger and frustration at this situation. At the level of the region’s “administration” the reaction is quite different. They dutifully announce schedules of power outages, plans for community heating centers and the ticking clock timeline of when they run out of coal. They blame Chisinau for this crisis with no basis and claim that the Moldovan government refuses to help them. But what they do not do is actually respond to the crisis. Moldova has offered gas, Ukraine has offered coal, everyone is offering them generators - they are rejecting it all. Currently Transnistria plans on resuming school (holidays have been extended) on January 20th. Statements by their “leaders” seem to imply that they don’t think this crisis will go into February (when coal runs out). All things considered, the Transnistrian leadership is displaying a lot of nonchalance, either because they know something we don’t, or because they are unreasonably optimistic.
Transnistria is in a Pickle
Back in September 2023 I wrote an article titled “Transnistria is in a Pickle3” which explored the changed geopolitical and economic realities for the region caused by the full scale invasion of Ukraine. I think the article holds up well and is worth reading in full. For the purpose of this article let’s focus on the most salient point - Transnistria’s future looks nothing like its past, and that’s a huge problem for the region.
