Moldova Matters Weekly Roundup

March 1 - 5

Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Weekly Roundup and other content sent right to your email!

Political Crisis - Hurry Up and Wait

As we have discussed previously in our last Weekly Roundup, the standoff between President Sandu and Igor Dodon’s Parliamentary majority is the key political and government issue of the day. For the last month this has been a story of “hurry up and wait,” with crises and swift action followed by the slow binding of time until a deadline passes - for court rulings, votes and Presidential Reactions. Now, we have two more deadlines to focus on. Igor Dodon has set a March 9th deadline for President Sandu to appoint his government of choice threatening that the “Presidency could become decorative” if she does not. President Sandu has clearly outlined that she will not back down and settle for any outcome other than elections which means holding out until March 23rd. So these are the two dates to watch as the sides quietly maneuver and plan their next steps. 

While it seemed like we would get no other clarity this week, a new player has jumped into this game in the form of Acting Prime Minister Aureliu Ciocoy, who has recently suggested that Parliament may have to declare a “State of Emergency” and empower his interim government to act to combat the rising COVID-19 caseloads. This possibility might “pause” the political crisis for a time by technically giving the acting government all the powers of a full government while not naming them as a full government - thereby bypassing the Presidency. I don’t think any predictions here are warranted as this situation could go a lot of directions. But it seems likely that Igor Dodon’s Socialists will make their move next week as his March 9th deadline expires. 

Wait, let’s go back to “State of Emergency” - how bad is COVID right now?

Well, it’s bad. The 7 day average of new cases is 1300+ which is  a significant uptick from last week and is beginning to rival the worst days Moldova has seen so far. Additionally, there is a new daily infection record of 1800 cases in a day. Authorities expect this trend to worsen and are concerned that the health system is being stretched to the brink. One stated reason for the explosion in cases is overcrowding in public transit, however, we now know the British Variant is spreading in Moldova as well. All while the grim milestone of 4000 deaths came and went this week. 

But there is some good news! Following the arrival of the first shipment of 20,000 doses of the Astrazeneca vaccines last week Moldova has begun to vaccinate doctors and health workers. Moldova has also received a first shipment of 14,400 vaccines from COVAX and has finally won approval for delivery of the long promised Pfizer Vaccine which is expected to arrive in mid March. 

Approval for Pfizer? What does that mean?

This has been a strange story of the last 2 weeks as a quiet conflict played out between Moldova and Pfizer over delivery of the vaccine. Recall that Moldova expected doses of the Pfizer vaccine in mid february both from Romania and from COVAX, but they did not come. President Sandu announced that Moldova was negotiating with Pfizer but that the company, as well as Moderna, were unwilling to allow their vaccines to be sent to Moldova. It seems they had “rule of law” concerns but what they were was unstated. This led many to speculate they were worried about corruption, theft of vaccines, or even lawsuits due to Moldova’s “malleable” court system. Whatever the case, President Sandu somehow broke the logjam and convinced Pfizer to lift their restriction and allow delivery. A month long delay for vaccines that were already purchased by Romania and COVAX is one that is almost certainly sure to cost lives. While we may not know the full story here, it is fair to say that people are remembering why they distrust Big Pharma. 

Great about Pfizer, what about Sputnik?

Well here, the good vaccine news gets a little murkier. Sputnik was registered by Moldova’s Medicines and Medical Devices Agency, a move that seemed to take President Sandu and some others in the government off guard. The Ministry of Health and Acting Prime Minister have stressed that until Sputnik has WHO  approval they have no plans to buy or distribute the vaccine in Moldova. But the Acting Prime Minister has said that a private company pushed for this approval and is going to import the vaccines and sell them in private clinics. While this seems that the Government and President did not play any part in this, it closely tracks with previous comments made by Igor Dodon that Sputnik is coming and may be available in private clinics. Ala Nemerenco, Advisor to Presidential Sandu on health issues, has said that this is a scheme orchestrated for profit. She cited the failure of the Chicu government to budget any funds for vaccine purchases, as well as Igor Dodon’s demonizing of the EU and US developed vaccines on television, as part of a scheme to drive profits by selling the Sputnik vaccine. While we don’t know the real power behind the registration process and possible entry of Sputnik to the market, we can assume this story will continue to develop in the very near future. 

So, are Lockdowns Coming?

When the Acting Prime Minister discussed a State of Emergency he did so in the context of needing another national lockdown. But this is a bit misleading as it assumes Moldova is not currently in a state of emergency which we are… and aren’t. At the onset of this crisis a year ago Parliament declared a State of Emergency until June. When it expired they did not renew it and instead created an Emergency Commission which declared a “State of Medical Emergency” and continued to impose restrictions but without Parliamentary oversight. Little has been written about this strange arrangement and it’s hard to know what will change if the Acting Prime Minister returns to a formal State of Emergency. If they want to impose lockdowns for example, they already can.   

Can Business Afford Another Lockdown?

In short? No. All around the world lockdowns have been devastating for companies not engaged in video streaming or hand sanitizer production. But in most nations, the government has passed relief and stimulus efforts to assist people who lose their jobs and keep companies from going under. As we discussed in our previous “Deep Dive” article, this has not been done here. That means the economy is in a very precarious position already - if more lockdowns are imposed without corresponding relief the consequences could be very serious. 

Ok so anything else going on in Moldova?

Well, one more story we will be keeping an eye on is a police raid on the Newsmaker offices. For any of you who click the links I pepper throughout these roundups, you know I very much rely on Newsmaker for quality and trustworthy reporting in Moldova. Recently, they reported a story where a source accused 2 police officers of selling drugs. The accusation was on record and forwarded to prosecutors but was thrown out by a judge. Now, those the Police Department as well as the officers are suing Newsmaker for defamation. And the Police raided the Newsmaker offices in a move that Newsmaker’s lawyer said was meant to intimidate the free press. This story will continue to develop over the coming weeks and could be an important test case of the freedom, or lack thereof, or the Moldovan press.