I thought it had all gone well so far, sound like the worst is definitely yet to come.
I was also interested to read in a Balkan Insight article the seldom mention debt of Transnistria, separate from the Moldova fraudulent claims:
"Gazprom referred to an alleged but unspecified debt of 709 million US dollars owed by Moldovagaz, which Gazprom said should be paid by the Moldovan authorities.
However, an independent international audit done in September 2023 set Moldovagaz’s debt to Gazprom at only eight million US dollars, which Chisinau was willing to pay immediately, but Moscow refused.
At the same time, the Transnistrian region already owes Gazprom a colossal 10.5 billion US dollars for gas consumed and never paid for over three decades. "
I don't think I have heard of the 10.5 billion before!
This gets complicated because the question of "who" is "who" gets weird with corporate shell entities.
Since basically independence Russia has given PMR free gas but "charged" Moldova for it. This is one of the main reasons that Russia does not recognize Transnistria the same way it does other breakaway regions. The debt is actually up to 11 billion as of now and Russia says Chisinau owes it. It's been the main impediment to solving the frozen conflict (other than the weapons) basically because Russia wants such an impediment.
The 709 thing is new and basically made up from 2021.
The whole 11 billion thing is equally made up in a sense. Russia provided the gas for free for years. They can try all they want to collect but Moldova will not pay and Transnistria cannot pay. So...?
Great article, thank you David - a very concise breakdown of a confusing situation.
I read online that, combined, Gazprom and PMR stakes in Moldovagaz essentially total a majority holding - with Moldovan authorities essentially being a minority holder in the company.
Does this suggest that Moldovagaz was essentially hostage in this situation, and realistically unable to change course and avoid this situation?
Very amateur understanding on my part, so please excuse me if this is a poor evaluation!
Hi Ryn, no that's a good question and not a super easy one to answer. Since MoldovaGaz operates in Moldova it is subject to local laws and regulations. Additionally the Moldovan government has some seats on the board and appoints some observers as well. With the State of Emergency the government has even more power to compel the company to take some actions if needed.
Prime Minister Recean has recently floated the idea that Moldova might nationalize the company. It's not super clear what problem this would solve as there are many tools of control already (it would create problems including lawsuits, etc).
In theory the company should be working based on contracts and the commercial / regulatory environment. At the same time, you're right about who owns them and this reality creates issues like this fictional $709 million dollar debt which GazProm invented between itself and its subsidiary.
Bottom line - it's complicated. But the ownership structure alone does not explain how decisions were / are made.
Thanks for the update! I imagine that my host family will be hosting their Transnistru relatives in the salon that was my room ten years ago. Their house had a hot-water system in the floor for heating which was probably pretty energy efficient. Yet, we had our cold nights.
Who knows, the Transnistria population is not stupid - maybe this will embolden them a bit ...
Safe travels Connie! even with AI there aren't any good weather predictions more than 2 weeks out so you'll just have to wait and see - or check a Farmer's Almanac ;)
Why do you misrepresent this situation? The reason the gas is not flowing to Transnistria is because Gazprom can no longer deliver it via the Ukrainian route anymore due to Kiev's repeated and clear refusal to prolong the relevant agreements that expired at the end of 2024. They will now have to utilized alternate pipelines to resume delivering gas to Transnistria. And yes, Moldova should pay for the gas, but that is not the reason that Russia has temporarily halted delivery! It is the fault of Ukraine and the dishonest government in Moldova.
Hi Charles, this is not the current situation. GazProm is capable of delivering gas to Transnistria via the TurkStream pipeline. The necessary agreements are in place such that there are no barriers to this gas arriving. During his negotiations with GazProm former Minister Parikov was told by the company that they are prepared to make deliveries by this route but only if Moldova pays the fictitious $709 million dollar debt. GazProm said that they would not make delivery contingent on the debt payment if Ukraine kept piping the gas directly.
So there's no technical issue here - just a political one.
So if Ukraine would cooperate, gas to Transnistria would not have been interrupted. And it would not have stopped to other European countries either. So you're right on one thing, it's purely political.
Good info, thanks David.
I thought it had all gone well so far, sound like the worst is definitely yet to come.
I was also interested to read in a Balkan Insight article the seldom mention debt of Transnistria, separate from the Moldova fraudulent claims:
"Gazprom referred to an alleged but unspecified debt of 709 million US dollars owed by Moldovagaz, which Gazprom said should be paid by the Moldovan authorities.
However, an independent international audit done in September 2023 set Moldovagaz’s debt to Gazprom at only eight million US dollars, which Chisinau was willing to pay immediately, but Moscow refused.
At the same time, the Transnistrian region already owes Gazprom a colossal 10.5 billion US dollars for gas consumed and never paid for over three decades. "
I don't think I have heard of the 10.5 billion before!
Keep up the good work!
Nick
This gets complicated because the question of "who" is "who" gets weird with corporate shell entities.
Since basically independence Russia has given PMR free gas but "charged" Moldova for it. This is one of the main reasons that Russia does not recognize Transnistria the same way it does other breakaway regions. The debt is actually up to 11 billion as of now and Russia says Chisinau owes it. It's been the main impediment to solving the frozen conflict (other than the weapons) basically because Russia wants such an impediment.
The 709 thing is new and basically made up from 2021.
The whole 11 billion thing is equally made up in a sense. Russia provided the gas for free for years. They can try all they want to collect but Moldova will not pay and Transnistria cannot pay. So...?
Great article, thank you David - a very concise breakdown of a confusing situation.
I read online that, combined, Gazprom and PMR stakes in Moldovagaz essentially total a majority holding - with Moldovan authorities essentially being a minority holder in the company.
Does this suggest that Moldovagaz was essentially hostage in this situation, and realistically unable to change course and avoid this situation?
Very amateur understanding on my part, so please excuse me if this is a poor evaluation!
Hi Ryn, no that's a good question and not a super easy one to answer. Since MoldovaGaz operates in Moldova it is subject to local laws and regulations. Additionally the Moldovan government has some seats on the board and appoints some observers as well. With the State of Emergency the government has even more power to compel the company to take some actions if needed.
Prime Minister Recean has recently floated the idea that Moldova might nationalize the company. It's not super clear what problem this would solve as there are many tools of control already (it would create problems including lawsuits, etc).
In theory the company should be working based on contracts and the commercial / regulatory environment. At the same time, you're right about who owns them and this reality creates issues like this fictional $709 million dollar debt which GazProm invented between itself and its subsidiary.
Bottom line - it's complicated. But the ownership structure alone does not explain how decisions were / are made.
Thanks for the update! I imagine that my host family will be hosting their Transnistru relatives in the salon that was my room ten years ago. Their house had a hot-water system in the floor for heating which was probably pretty energy efficient. Yet, we had our cold nights.
Who knows, the Transnistria population is not stupid - maybe this will embolden them a bit ...
I'll be in Western Europe this February, so I'm looking at forecasts for European weather, but there are so many models that they leave me neither optimistic nor pessimistic: https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-snowfall-predictions-early-spring-trends-europe-fa/ So far it's Eastern North America that's getting the polar vortex ...
Safe travels Connie! even with AI there aren't any good weather predictions more than 2 weeks out so you'll just have to wait and see - or check a Farmer's Almanac ;)
Given that AI can't yet master people with the correct number of fingers, I really think weather forecasting is a bit much!
sorry - I should have left a citation here :)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/science/google-ai-weather-forecast.html
Here's a gift article from the NYT about Varnița:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/05/world/europe/russia-gas-moldova-transnistria.html?unlocked_article_code=1.m04.bCs1.gBjLhsa8m8Lp&smid=url-share
Why do you misrepresent this situation? The reason the gas is not flowing to Transnistria is because Gazprom can no longer deliver it via the Ukrainian route anymore due to Kiev's repeated and clear refusal to prolong the relevant agreements that expired at the end of 2024. They will now have to utilized alternate pipelines to resume delivering gas to Transnistria. And yes, Moldova should pay for the gas, but that is not the reason that Russia has temporarily halted delivery! It is the fault of Ukraine and the dishonest government in Moldova.
Hi Charles, this is not the current situation. GazProm is capable of delivering gas to Transnistria via the TurkStream pipeline. The necessary agreements are in place such that there are no barriers to this gas arriving. During his negotiations with GazProm former Minister Parikov was told by the company that they are prepared to make deliveries by this route but only if Moldova pays the fictitious $709 million dollar debt. GazProm said that they would not make delivery contingent on the debt payment if Ukraine kept piping the gas directly.
So there's no technical issue here - just a political one.
So if Ukraine would cooperate, gas to Transnistria would not have been interrupted. And it would not have stopped to other European countries either. So you're right on one thing, it's purely political.