Thank you for this - for a speculative article it does a great job of analysing the forces at play, and mapping out the year ahead. I'm convinced!
One thing I would add, regarding the war in Ukraine, is that I see positive signs that Europe has started acting to move firmly away from a military dependence on the USA. And seems to be taking steps to work around blockers like Hungary.
Economically and militarily, Russia has been weakened to the point where it should be well within the capabilities of Europe to finish the job.
I agree that it is positive that Europe is moving in a more independent direction. Unfortunately I have not seen any reporting or analysis that says they can make up for the loss of US support. It isn't that they couldn't do it, the problem is that in order to do so EU member countries would have needed to make decisions and investments many many months or even years ago. Right now there have been almost no indications that Europe is prepared to re-arm in this way quickly enough.
155 mm shell production is probably the most emblematic example. This war doesn't hinge on any one technology or set of logistical challenges, but without 155mm shells flowing at a sufficient rate Ukraine cannot stay in the fight. And EU members continue to drop the ball on this.
Hi Nick, very good question. I wish there was some central list of cases to check and verify progress but to my knowledge there isn't. I assume that is because no one in the prosecutor's office really wants a comprehensive look to be easy.
Typically these things are catch and release. As with Tauber it often looks like this formula:
Arrest, preventative detention for 30 days > detention renewed for a month or 2 more >> release to house arrest >> after a few months release with rules to stay in the city or country >> lifting of these rules to allow international travel with promises of good behavior.
Anti-Corruption Prosecutors loudly protest judges just letting people go on a schedule that is almost designed to be too slow to prevent loud public outcry. But the judges do it anyhow.
Then, in a lot of cases (one example coming in this week's roundup) the case will drag on and on until it is finally dismissed on some obscure technical reason. At this point the person accused will sue the government for back wages + penalties + their job back. And in this circumstance they almost always win.
So my best answer to the question would be to watch Tauber - if they can't convict her after so many years and she remains free what possible deterrent effect can the law have? Sure, 30 days in jail is inconvenient. But just like a good mob boss Shor will compensate it well.
I suspect things are somewhat better with smaller fish... somewhat.
Thank you for this - for a speculative article it does a great job of analysing the forces at play, and mapping out the year ahead. I'm convinced!
One thing I would add, regarding the war in Ukraine, is that I see positive signs that Europe has started acting to move firmly away from a military dependence on the USA. And seems to be taking steps to work around blockers like Hungary.
Economically and militarily, Russia has been weakened to the point where it should be well within the capabilities of Europe to finish the job.
Hi - thanks for the comment and kind words!!
I agree that it is positive that Europe is moving in a more independent direction. Unfortunately I have not seen any reporting or analysis that says they can make up for the loss of US support. It isn't that they couldn't do it, the problem is that in order to do so EU member countries would have needed to make decisions and investments many many months or even years ago. Right now there have been almost no indications that Europe is prepared to re-arm in this way quickly enough.
155 mm shell production is probably the most emblematic example. This war doesn't hinge on any one technology or set of logistical challenges, but without 155mm shells flowing at a sufficient rate Ukraine cannot stay in the fight. And EU members continue to drop the ball on this.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-order-only-60000-shells-ukraine-via-new-scheme-sources-2023-12-06/
A superb article, as always, many thanks, David!
Just a thought... There have been plenty of articles about how dodgy Shor backed politicians have been caught with dirty money.
I've not seen anything on the consequences of this for them though. Hefty fines? Jail time? Disqualification from public office?
The concern has to be that Shor and Russians can buy people faster than they can be convicted, or that they cover any fines...
Do you know what happens in these cases?
Hi Nick, very good question. I wish there was some central list of cases to check and verify progress but to my knowledge there isn't. I assume that is because no one in the prosecutor's office really wants a comprehensive look to be easy.
Typically these things are catch and release. As with Tauber it often looks like this formula:
Arrest, preventative detention for 30 days > detention renewed for a month or 2 more >> release to house arrest >> after a few months release with rules to stay in the city or country >> lifting of these rules to allow international travel with promises of good behavior.
Anti-Corruption Prosecutors loudly protest judges just letting people go on a schedule that is almost designed to be too slow to prevent loud public outcry. But the judges do it anyhow.
Then, in a lot of cases (one example coming in this week's roundup) the case will drag on and on until it is finally dismissed on some obscure technical reason. At this point the person accused will sue the government for back wages + penalties + their job back. And in this circumstance they almost always win.
So my best answer to the question would be to watch Tauber - if they can't convict her after so many years and she remains free what possible deterrent effect can the law have? Sure, 30 days in jail is inconvenient. But just like a good mob boss Shor will compensate it well.
I suspect things are somewhat better with smaller fish... somewhat.