Weekly Roundup: Severe Weather and Political Updates
June 15, 2024
A Week Severe Weather in Moldova
The past week has seen nearly daily “Yellow Code” weather warnings for all regions of the country as high winds and severe storms downed trees and power lines. Emergency workers unblocked 100 roads from fallen trees and responded to power outages and flooding in many regions of the country.
While clearing downed tree branches in Chisinau emergency workers discovered the body of a 12 year old girl who was killed by a falling tree. In a separate incident a 36 year old man was killed in front of his wife and children when a large tree branch fell on the tent they were sleeping in. The family was camping by the Nistru with friends when the storm arrived. Responding to the sound of the splitting tree the man’s wife and children were able to exit the tent in time but he was not.
Rains were especially heavy in the south where emergency services responded to flooding and power outages.
Politics
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top political stories of the week:
The European Union has announced that accession negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine will begin on June 25th. Negotiations were expected to start in June but until now no date had been set. Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Cristina Gerasimov welcomed the announcement saying:
“Ambassadors of the European Union member states have agreed on a negotiating framework for the official opening of negotiations on the accession of Moldova and Ukraine to the EU. As a result, on 25 June the Belgian EU Presidency will convene the first intergovernmental conferences involving the two countries. We congratulate everyone on this historical event!”
A new report shows that Moldova is in the top 5 countries in Europe for the number of people incarcerated per capita. The country has 251.9 people incarcerated per 100,000 population, substantially higher than the Council of Europa average of 106. Ukraine and Romania have 120 and 116 respectively. The Moldovan number jumped 1.5 times in 2023 from a statistic of 159 persons incarcerated per 100,000 in 2022. This stark figure does not represent an actual increase in incarcerations, which actually dropped in the period, but the fact that the total population was estimated at 4 million in 2022 and revised to 2.5 million in 2023. The 4 million number has not been true since the early 90s and the idea that it was still used for statistical reporting in 2022 is a firm indication of institutional inertia.
Igor Dodon and Ilan Shor both attended the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in Russia. Neither met with Putin at the event. In interviews with Russian media both political leaders parroted Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine, the so-called “militarization” of Moldova, etc. In an interview Igor Dodon did not rule out running for president saying that if there is no single candidate for the opposition in the election he may run for the Socialists. He also lamented the “lowest point” in relations between Moldova and Russia and blamed politicians in Moldova that he called “Soros” people.
Independent MP Vasily Bolya wore a black t-shirt with the words “Putin Team” to a meeting of Parliament. Bolya was elected as a member of the Socialist Party but then defected to the Shor-affiliated “Renaissance” party. Explaining the t-shirt he said: “This is a beautiful piece of clothing. The message is simple: we are part of the Pobeda bloc team. And we will achieve victory in the elections and referendum. PAS is a team of losers. Their political supporters (Macron and others) lost on June 9, and PAS will lose.” Asked what the connection between the Pobeda (Victory) block and Putin was he stated “There is no connection.” It’s humorous to note that while the t-shirt was in English, the translation was sloppy given that “Team Putin” rather than “Putin Team” would have been more correct.
Speaker Grosu has banned all Shor-affiliated opposition MPs from the next 5 parliamentary sessions. The ban followed a “protest” where the opposition MP occupied the rostrum chanting “Pobeda!” (Victory) and "Down with the dictatorship!" They were protesting a technical bill increasing the powers of the National Bank over its own budget.
President Sandu will attend the Summit for Peace in Ukraine hosted by Switzerland this weekend. The summit is organized by Ukraine and seeks to gather further international support for Ukraine’s peace plan which envisions Russia fully withdrawing from Ukrainian territory. Russia was not invited and China refused to participate in the event.
Shor Party News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top stories about the Shor Party this week:
On June 12th the United States announced sanctions against Gagauzia Bashkan Gutsul. The sanctions were levied for "active complicity with the fugitive convicted oligarch, Ilan Şor, and his party "Şor", as well as for facilitating their actions of illegal political interference, supported by Kremlin." Bashkan Gutsul will no longer be able to travel to the United States and any assets she may have there will be frozen. American companies are prohibited from doing business with the politician. Prime Minister Recean welcomed the sanctions stating: "The prompt reaction of the USA must serve as an example for the judiciary in the Republic of Moldova to do its duty and defend the interest of the country and our citizens." Gutsul also more or less welcomed the sanctions saying “now many more people will know about the Gagauz!"
The Shor Party announced the extension of 2000 lei supplemental income payments to the Orhei region. The money for the payments is provided by unnamed “sponsors” and will be conducted via a sanctioned Russian bank and Russian Mir cards. Payments will be given monthly to pensioners and public sector workers. The National Bank has reiterated that it is “physically impossible” to use these cards in Moldova, but money can be withdrawn in Transnistria.
The Head of the National Police has announced that the Kremlin is spending $2 million dollars per month in supporting Shor’s efforts. He stated that the purpose of spending is to destabilize Moldova and that it is being brought by couriers paid between $150 and $200 per journey.
Bashkan Gutsul’s trial was again delayed. A co-defendant in the trial on illegal party financing called in sick to the court date and the Bashkan stated that her lawyer went on vacation. The judge rescheduled the hearing warning the co-defendant to bring a doctor’s note and the Bashkan to bring her lawyer or risk being assigned a public defender.
A chartered Fly One flight made an emergency landing in Bucharest. The plane was carrying Pobeda party members back to Moldova after a conference in Moscow. The plane took off from Yerevan Armenia but failed to file a flight plan and was denied access to Moldovan airspace. Then, while diverting, an unknown person called in a bomb threat against the plane to police causing the pilot to request an emergency landing in Romania. Officers from Romania’s intelligence service searched the plane and found no bombs on board. Several passengers were detained for questioning. Details of the whole story, including elements of the timeline of events, remain murky right now. A member of Fly One’s board of directors commented on the situation saying:
“As I understand it, there were suspects on board, people of a certain character. During the flight, the crew changed some flight data and made an error in the documentation. One of the passengers was a suspect, but we don’t yet know the details,”
The United States, United Kingdom and Canada released a joint statement condemning Russia’s attempts to interfere in Moldova. In it the 3 nations warn that Russia is attempting to undermine Moldova’s elections this year and planning protests if pro-Russian candidates do not win.
Security and Defense News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top stories in security and defense this week:
The European Union donated 16 military ambulances to the Moldovan Army. They also announced 9 million euros in grants for Moldova to purchase air defense systems. No concrete systems or timeline of delivery was announced.
Igor Dodon stated that Transnistria proposed reunited with Moldova. In an interview in St. Petersburg Igor Dodon stated that Transnistrian “leader” Vadim Krasnoselsky called President Sandu 2 years ago and said “let’s unite, let’s discuss how we will unite.” He said that this was in recognition of the fact that if Transnistria were independent of Moldova Ukraine would already have attacked the region. Krasnoselsky categorically denied this statement. It’s worth noting that the “2 years ago” timeframe likely refers to the opening months of the war.
Crime, Corruption and Justice Reform
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top stories in Crime, Corruption and Justice Reform this week:
The Supreme Court of Justice heard testimony in the case against Igor Dodon. Witness Andrian Candu, formerly a senior political official in the Plahotniuc government, testified about the events of spring 2019 saying that the Party of Democrats (PD), led by Plahotniuc, was in negotiations with Dodon and the Socialists about forming a coalition government following the elections. In these negotiations PD would form the government while the Socialists would be given control of parliament. Candu testified that the Socialists kept changing their negotiating position as Dodon shuttled back and forth to Moscow for consultations. Allegedly, Plahotniuc told Dodon “I have the feeling that I am negotiating with Putin, and not with you.” He did not directly testify to the prosecution’s allegation that Plahotniuc gave Dodon between $600,000 and $1 million dollars in this time period. The so-called “Kuliok” case was brought after video emerged showing Plahotniuc give Igor Dodon a black plastic bag allegedly filled with money in order to buy his political support.
9 Anti-Corruption Prosecutors have resigned ahead of the vetting of the office. The Anti-Corruption Prosecutors office said that these resignations, as well as the time taken in the vetting process, will put extra pressure on remaining prosecutors who are currently juggling 500 open cases. Explaining the resignations Veronica Dragalin stated that she knew who planned to leave saying:
“Of the nine people, two do not work in the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office. The list includes people who once worked in the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office. In fact, seven prosecutors resigned from the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, four of them from the Northern Office. As a result of legislative changes, the Northern and Southern offices will soon be eliminated. I invited prosecutors from Balti and Cahul to come to Chisinau, but I understand that they have families and it’s not so easy. In the central office in Chisinau, out of 38 prosecutors, three resigned due to the Vetting audit,”
7 employees of the Interpol Bureau in Moldova were removed from their jobs as internal investigations into corruption in the office continue. One other suspect was taken into custody as he or she attempted to flee the country.
Economics and Infrastructure
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top stories economics and infrastructure this week:
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits has sharply fallen. The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection announced that in the last 13 months the number of people receiving benefits fell from 11.6 thousand to 1.5 thousand people. The Ministry called this a major success for the National Employment Agency which is tasked with job placements for the unemployed. The major factor driving the change was a legislative amendment that required that unemployed persons receiving benefits must be actively looking for a job. This resulted in 9 thousand unemployed persons no longer receiving benefits. Currently Moldova has a very tight labor market with many available positions. The reform was partially intended to crack down on people receiving benefits while actually working unofficially.
The EU has approved the first Moldovan company which can export chicken to the block. Axedum, based in a Chisinau suburb, met all EU standards and now has market access to the EU.
Moldova will build a National Stadium. Minister of Infrastructure Andrei Spinu announced a plan to build a stadium meeting UEFA standards in the next 5 years. The stadium would cost approximately 85 million euros to be funded by a combination of the government, private investors and partners. It will have seating for 20-25 thousand people and parking for 1500-1800 cars. Locations are still being evaluated but the leading candidate is the superb of Stauceni near the location of the Chisinau Arena. PAS MP Radu Marian noted that Moldova is the only regional country without a National Stadium for football (soccer) matches and that its construction represents a long term economic investment for the country.
Minister of Energy Victor Parlicov sat down with Newsmaker for an in-depth interview discussing his comments last week that Russian gas can continue flowing to Transnistria in 2025. In it he reiterated that there is no formal agreement with Ukraine on this point, but “there is an understanding” that Ukraine will allow gas transit if the capacity is booked by a European company. Minister Parlicov explained the situation saying "We want to get electricity at the best price for our consumer and at the same time ensure social stability in Transnistria. Because the money we pay for electricity is an important component of the region’s budget." He also noted that in 2026 the current gas purchase contract with GazProm will expire, and in 2027 the EU plans to halt all import of Russian gas. The Minister stated that Transnistria’s current situation is time limited and that the region should use the remaining time wisely.