Weekly Roundup - Part 2?

October 18, 2022

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Author’s Note: Part 2? or just a new Weekly Roundup for a new week? This is a bit of both. It’s been hard to keep up with all the happenings of the last 2 weeks (as you will see below from the length of this update) so building on last week’s energy focused Weekly Roundup this article will catch us up on other news through today. Given the ever more rapid pace of important news please forgive the somewhat irregular but roughly weekly schedule.

Russo-Ukrainian War Updates

This past week Russia has continued to retaliate against Ukrainian battlefield successes with a sustained terror bombing campaign. Russian missiles and Iranian drones continue to strike across Ukraine with a particular focus on the country’s energy infrastructure. President Zelenskyy has now said that since October 10th, 30% of the country’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed. This has caused widespread blackouts across the country and continuing rolling blackouts as Ukrainian authorities attempt to balance demand.

Status-6 @Archer83Able

Russian strikes hit the Prydniprovska thermal power plant in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro this morning, causing multiple fires at the site.

International Affairs in Brief

In addition to the direct news from the war, there were 3 stories in Moldova’s international affairs and direct neighborhood worth tracking.

• Belarus inches closer to war? Belarusian President Lukashenko announced this week that under the auspices of the “Union State” of Russia and Belarus a new military formation with both Russian and Belarusian troops would be created in Belarus. This has led to much speculation about the possibility to Belarus directly entering the war and opening another front in the north - but most military analysis say that this is mostly not credible as Russian continues to raid Belarusian equipment stocks, shipping them back to Russia for their own troop needs.

• Romania and Bulgaria entering Schengen. The European Parliament has approved a resolution admitting Romania and Bulgaria to the Schengen area. They plan to remove all border infrastructure in Spring 2023. This has long been coming but the sudden announcement and speed of planned implementation highlights the fact that the normally slow and methodical EU is moving more quickly in light of the war.

• European Political Community will meet in Chisinau next? President Maia Sandu returned from the first summit of the European Political Community praising the new format but saying that it is no substitute for full admission to the EU. She praised the plan to hold the next summit, in Chisinau next Spring saying:

  "The proposal to hold a meeting of 44 leaders of European states and regions in our country underlines the fact that our partners provide unconditional support for the European course and the future of Moldova. Dear friends, we are waiting for you in Chisinau"

  Author’s Note: It is impossible to read this as a Chisinau resident and not cringe at the traffic implications of 44 world leaders coming to town. Let’s see where this goes.

Politicians React to Missiles Over Moldova

Last week’s flight of 3 cruise missiles through Moldovan airspace to attack targets in Ukraine has left a long trail of diplomatic and policy fallout. The government’s demands that Russia explain its actions have so far been met with silence and obfuscation best summed up as “prove it.”

Responding to questions on the topic, Speaker of Parliament Grosu noted that Moldova will expand and accelerate its efforts at military modernization - in particular air defense. He did not provide answers about specifics, including price or acquisitions deferring to the Ministry of Defense.

Speaking at a joint press conference with the President of Georgia who was visiting Chisinau, President Sandu discussed the missiles saying:

“The safety of our citizens has been our main concern since the first day of the war. Obviously, based on the situation in the defense sector, from the first weeks of hostilities, we turned to our partners with a request to help improve our defense capabilities. We are negotiating. When we have more concrete results, we will inform you,”

“I hope there will be no such situation, but if Russia in any way dares to threaten the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Moldova, then, obviously, we will take protective measures,”

While it is clear that the fact of the overflight of Moldovan territory itself was unnerving, the fact that the Russian Federation did not apologize or call it a mistake is being taken as a hostile diplomatic signal. Combined with the new targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and Moldova’s highly precarious energy position this has increased the urgency of increasing defense capabilities even at Russia is pushed back in Ukraine.

Politics - Opposition Parties are Organizing

In the past week and a half there has been a flurry of news from across the spectrum of (mostly) pro-Russian opposition parties. In particular, there are now real actions underway to create two coalition camps opposing PAS with some parties rallying to Ilan Shor’s protests and others working to form what is being called at “Non-Criminally-Adjacent” opposition block.

The "Common Agenda" Platform

Last week, a new coordination platform called “Common Agenda” was launched by the non-Shor opposition parties in order to coordinate political positions and organize common protests. In terms of poll support, the main parties leading this effort are the Socialist Party and Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban’s National Alternative Movement MAN party. But numerous other parties attended including former (Dodon affiliated) Prime Minister Ion Chicu. Interestingly, the Liberal Democratic Party PLDM also attended and joined the group. The PLDM is a defunct political force now, but was once the dominant pro-EU and pro-reform party in Moldova with much of the current PAS government (including President Sandu) starting out in PLDM years ago.

One other extra-parliamentary party attending was Mark Tkachuk’s Civic Congress party. This party has not made major electoral gains but has a loyal following as Moldova’s only real "left wing” or even “far left” party. Mark Tkachuk noted that they are willing to talk even to their past opponents, the Socialists, because 1) Dodon is gone (under house arrest) and 2) the Socialists have not sided with Shor.

Speakers at the platform event broadly agreed that they could not let Shor monopolize anti-government protests and that all these parties should coordinate their opposition to the PAS government. At the same time, insofar as any of these parties has a political agenda they are all in conflict (or totally non-existent). Civic Congress, which has fairly far left ideological views hadn’t even put out a single statement on the war until this week when they condemned it but blamed it on “looting capitalism.” Notably absent from the gathering was the Communist Party whose leader Vladimir Voronin said they weren’t invited but that the Communists have been supporting such a coalition for months (with no takers). The platform group agreed to hold regular meetings.

Shor Protests Continue and Rhetoric Escalates

Last week, after another Shor protest on October 9th President Sandu asked the government to amend legislation allowing the police to intervene in protests when public order is threatened. The legislation was largely a technical fix. Previously the police needed permission to intervene from the authority that granted the protest permit - in this case Chisinau Mayor Ceban. Since the mayor has not been granting permission to clear the roads (and himself blocked the road with city cars to film a political statement) the government sought to bypass this and allow the police to clear barricades themselves.

This led to a decision by the Commission on Emergency Situations saying that protestors may only block the roads for up to 4 hours during the protests and only on weekends. It freed up the police to clear the roads outside of those restrictions.

Meanwhile, last week the leader of the PACE Party and former head of the General Inspectorate of Police under Plahotniuc, Georgy Kavkalyuk announced his party would join the Shor protests. Georgy Kavkalyuk is a fugitive last known to be living in London. He is wanted for using his position in the police to frame political rivals of Plahotniuc including an elaborately staged rape case and planting weapons on a political activist.

Following the addition of Kavkalyuk’s party, during the October 16 Sunday protests, Ilan Shor, broadcasting from Israel, announced what he called the “Committee of National Salvation.” This committee will consist of Ilan Shor, Marina Tauber (under house arrest), Georgy Kavkalyuk (wanted), communist MP Konstantin Starysh, and the Chairmen of the Orhei District Dinu Turcanu.

Explaining the purpose of the committee, Shor said:

“I propose today to establish a committee that will be endowed with the power and authority of the people to carry out various actions. Including, if necessary, managing the government before calling early elections. We, the National Salvation Committee, which you elect today, if you see fit, will act in the name of the interests of the people of the Republic of Moldova. The doors of our committee, as a protest, are open to absolutely all parties, for all people,”

(they were “elected” by acclamation by the protestors Shor paid to be there)

This rhetoric, with clear revolutionary overtones is an escalation in the Shor Party’s protest calling for new elections. The idea of having a standing committee to take power and “manage the government” before new elections is clearly a call for taking power in some manner outside of the constitution of Moldova.

Speaking about the protestors, before Shor announced this “committee,” President Sandu said:

"They are trying to use the difficult situation that the country is currently in due to the war in Ukraine to destabilize the situation and create chaos. They want to provoke conflict situations in different parts of the country in order to split the society. They want power so badly that they promise Moscow to stage a coup d'état and install a government through which Russia can use our country in the war" (…) "Don't have any illusions. (...) Treason will be severely punished,”

The President also asked people not to condemn those who come to the protests simply for money saying:

“I ask you not to condemn those who were brought to the protests by paying them money. We know that thieves use these people for their own purposes. We understand all the difficulties that these people are experiencing. And also those who, despite the difficulties, continue to honestly earn a living. The government is doing everything possible to help people in the face of rising prices,”

There have been many reports now about protestors being paid with some commentators noting that the camp is a sort of “hotel” where people come at night to sleep in the tents in order to collect around $60 / night for doing so.

The Tent City is Dismantled

Following the protests on October 16th, Shor protestors again tried to take control of the main street of the capital by setting up tents. Empowered by the new rules of the government the police intervened and fully dismantled the tent city. Multiple persons were cited for hooliganism, for drunkenly confronting officers, or for carrying prohibited items such as knives.

Screen shot of police film accessed through Newsmaker

Meanwhile, protests continue with Shor Party activists protesting on October 18th in front of the US Embassy. The protests called for US to recognize President Sandu and PAS as “dictators” for their removal of tents the weekend before. Interestingly, this protest did not have a clear anti-American character but did continue Shor attempts to discredit PAS as “US Puppets.”

What do the polls say?

Last week a poll was released by outlet IDIS Viitorul looking both at political opinions and asking a number of issue questions. Here are some of the most important questions and results:

Opinions about joining transnational organizations:

• Do you support Union with Romania? 39.7% for ; 51.8% against

• Do you want Moldova to join the European Union or the Eurasian Economic Union (Russian led)? 57.1% for the EU ; 26.4% for the EEU

• Do you support Moldova joining NATO? 30.4% for ; 59.9% against

Are you ready to fight to defend Moldova?

• Definitely No - 48.2%

• Probably No - 13.3%

• Probably Yes - 10.1%

• Definitely Yes - 22.4%

• 6% refused to answer / don't know

Which items are your top concerns right now?

• 51.1% prices / inflation

• 43.2% war

• 26.8% poverty

• 26.1% a better future for (our) children

• 24.2% corruption

• 23.9% disconnection from Russian gas

• 14.1% lack of heat in winter

Note: it’s not clear how this question was asked but clearly respondents could pick multiple answers. What is most notable is how in the midst of war and crisis “corruption” has fallen far on people’s list from before PAS won the election last year.

Which Politician do you trust most?

• 26.1% Maia Sandu

• 11.1% Igor Dodon

• 3.4% Ilan Shor

• 2.1% Ion Ceban

• (various others)

• No One - 40.9%

If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (first number is the direct %, the second number in [brackets] is if you allocate the undecided vote by percent:

• PAS - 28.3% (38.7 if undecideds allocated)

• Socialists - 22.5% (30.8)

• Shor - 9.3% (12.8)

No other party cleared the 5% threshold.

Analysis - What is going on with the opposition?

After months and months of relative quiet with opposition parties largely trying to ignore the ongoing war we suddenly have an avalanche of anti-PAS activity. It is no coincidence that this is timed with the start of the cold season as all opposition parties are focusing their messages on economic hardship and the price of energy in particular. But what’s going on? Right now it’s hard to tell what direction things will take, but here is a broad overview of the 2 camps that seem to be forming.

Camp 1: The Criminal Coalition

It is increasingly clear that the Shor-led protests are a coalition of multiple criminal elements backed directly by Russia. This week, Russian regulators lifted import bans on Moldovan vegetables and fruits for 7 companies in the Shor Party led Orhei region only. Meanwhile, Shor’s new TV stations which were recently transferred by Russian holding companies from the Socialist to Shor parties cover the protests and Shor’s positions extensively. One journalist from Primul TV even visited the fugitive in Israel for a lengthy sit-down interview.

The rhetoric from Shor openly flaunts Moldovan law and is calling for some mechanism of seizing power through protests and maintaining it outside of the constitutional order. What is very hard to see is the endgame. Popular protest movements cannot seize power if the only people who come to protests are poor, elderly people hoping for money or food. Politically these protests are significant because of the headlines they make, not for actual disruption in Chisinau where most citizens ignore them or find them a kind of “sad curiosity.” It is possible that the goal is itself just to be destabilizing or that there is no real endgame except to “see what happens” as the cold season sets in. On the other hand, it is worth noting that Russia has paired fake protests with more aggressive actions many times in the past - in Donbas 2014 and more recently in the attempted coup in Montenegro in 2016. The willingness of the protestors to talk about seizing power only seems foolish when compared to the actual political power and popularity of Shor in Moldova. If we consider the boldness (and recklessness) with which Russia has recently acted lately in the name of supporting their proxies it is clear that Moldova needs to keep a close eye on Shor’s movement going forward.

It is also worth noting the international element of these protests - namely that the leaders are not here. Shor is hiding in Israel, Georgy Kavkalyuk was last seen in London where fugitive oligarch Veaceslav Platon is also hiding. These countries are making this Russian supported attack on Moldova possible by sheltering these wanted men. In a sign of just how willing they are to use the international legal system, Shor announced this week that he has retained US Law Firm Dechert LLP to defend him against “slander” internationally. It is critical for developing democracies like Moldova that advanced democracies not enable corrupt oligarchs in their attempts to overthrow the democratic order in their home states.

Camp 2: The Electoral Opposition

So what is the "Common Agenda" Platform? On face value, it seems that the non-Shor opposition parties are trying to collectively come out of the political wilderness by uniting in opposition to PAS and President Sandu. Most importantly we now have a mechanism to re-unite Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban with his former, but severely damaged, political party the Socialists. A coalition allows all these parties some deniability about the others while still coordinating their efforts. But to what end?

Clearly there will be protests. Right now there is no election on the horizon and the only reason to coordinate activity is for broad protests in the hopes of forcing an election (a highly unlikely event). But it is possible that the point is more than that. Shor has not only grabbed the national microphone in a way that makes the Socialists seem irrelevant - he has also grabbed Russian sponsorship away from them. This coalition may be an attempt by the involved parties to regain enough relevance to signal to Moscow that they are a better horse to back than Shor. We’ll have to keep an eye on the group and see how their “common agenda” evolves.

Wait!? All this talk about protests and opposition - where is Gagauzia?

Some new, small scale protest have begun in Gagauzia trying to gather signatures for a proposal to recreate the USSR and “investigate why it dissolved.” But what is most interesting is the official silence that following the abrupt U-Turn in past weeks where the Gagauzian People’s Assembly first called a regional assembly and then canceled it. In a signal of a more constructive approach, last week, the Bashkhan (Governor) Irina Vlah said the following at an International Investor Forum held in Comrat:

"now, when security risks are too high, Gagauzia will not become a source of instability in Moldova."

"We want to position ourselves as a region of Moldova where any barriers to investment have been removed, a region that not only awaits redistribution from the central budget, but is also able to independently attract foreign direct investment"

This positions Vlah in a sort of third political opposition group. One that is opposed to PAS but willing to be a loyal (or semi-loyal) opposition in light of the ongoing war and crisis. We’ll see if this position holds or if the Bashkahn can keep her region in line as the winter approaches.

Energy Crisis Updates

This week, Transnistria announced that GazProm had notified them of a 30% reduction of gas to the region in October followed by a 40% reduction in November. In order to compensate for what will be major shortfalls, the region’s “government” announced it would be cutting supplies to heavy industry in order to keep households heated. Particularly they are cutting supply to the Moldavan Metallurgical Plant, Ribnitsa Cement Plant and Moldova State District Power Plant MGRES. This final plant, MGRES, is Moldova’s critical electricity supplier which provides up to 70% of the rest of Moldova’s electricity needs.

Meanwhile, the Chisinau TermoElectric Plant announced they have complete preparations for turning on central heat. Generally this is done after 7 days of cold temperatures in the fall. The plant is currently running on fuel oil instead of gas and supplies 1588 residential buildings and 132 schools, kindergartens and medical facilities in the capital. Minister of Infrastructure Andrei Spinu announced that the official heating season will begin in November but that hospitals and educational institutions may receive heat earlier. He also noted that Moldova received another shipment of 1,600 tons of fuel oil which is part of 14,500 tons purchased from Romania which will be delivered in batches. State reserves are now 100% full ahead of schedule. Combined with 35 million cubic meters of natural gas that Moldova has stocked in Romanian storage facilities that country has enough energy for 1 month after a total cutoff… maybe 2.

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