Weekly Roundup: New Election and EU Referendum Polls
April 19, 2024
Politics - New Political Polls Released
This week a set of new polls was released by high quality pollster CBS-Research in partnership with watchdog.md. The poll asked respondents about their choice in the upcoming EU referendum as well as how they would vote were the presidential or parliamentary elections to be held today. Here are the top line results:
Presidential Elections
Note: Elections are scheduled for October 20th, 2024
If the presidential election was held this week the poll showed that 42.9% would vote to re-elect President Sandu while 19.3% would vote for former President Dodon. Other potential candidates receiving significant vote shares were former prime minister Ion Chicu with 6.8%, Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban with 6.6%, Vladimir Voronin with 5.6% and former Bashkan Irina Vlah with 5.5%.
The poll found 11.8% of voters undecided. The numbers above reflect the results with undecided voters removed. Given these results the presidential elections would proceed to a 2nd round rematch between Maia Sandu and Igor Dodon.
Referendum on European Integration
Note: The Referendum on EU Integration is scheduled for October 20th, 2024
If the referendum were held today polling shows that 56.5% of voters would support joining the EU, 25.2% would vote against, 7.3% would boycott and 9.5% are undecided.
Parliamentary Elections
Note: The next parliamentary elections are most likely to occur around July 2025
If parliamentary elections were held today polling showed 19.2% of voters undecided. Of those who did have a preference 41.6% would support PAS, 22.6% the Socialists, 8.5% Shor’s “Chance” party and 6.8% the Communists. The electoral threshold to enter parliament is 5% and no other parties met this threshold. Renato Usatii’s “Our Party” got 4.2% support, Ion Ceban’s MAN party received 2.5% support and the new “Together” Block (more on them below) received 3.5%.
Polling Caveats
Author’s Note: The last time I wrote about opinion polls in Moldova Matters I received a number of thoughtful emails and comments from readers suggesting that I be more clear about the issues with taking these polls at face value. This was excellent feedback so here are some things to keep in mind.
This polling does not include the diaspora. This poll, and really all polls released in Moldova, focus on citizens currently residing in the country. This is important because the diaspora makes up a significant portion of voters (14.34% in the 2021 Parliamentary Elections, 10.96% in the first round of the 2020 Presidential Elections and 15.91% in the second round). In those last 2 elections diaspora voters strongly supported PAS (85.98% in the 2021 parliamentary elections), Maia Sandu (69.73% in the 2020 first round presidential and 92.56% in the second round) and by proxy of these results they support European Integration. This all means that a large pro-EU block is not being counted in most (or all) opinion polling.
Mail voting in 2024. Parliament has been considering a bill to create a test run of voting by mail for citizens in the diaspora. This week the bill was amended to extend beyond Moldovans living in the US and Canada to also include those living in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland. The new bill adds clearer criteria for where voting by mail will be allowed. Namely, countries with long distances to polling places, reliable postal systems and a local history of conducting elections by mail. Also, vote by mail will not be allowed in any countries that are at war or which do not themselves conduct elections to international standards. Should this bill pass and survive legal challenges it is likely to make it substantially easier for the diaspora, which is overwhelmingly pro-European, to vote.
These are pre-campaign polls. These polls looked at elections that might happen today - but the reality is that it is still quite early in the election cycle. PAS has begun campaigning for the EU Referendum but even this is in the very early stages. Presidential polls look at potential rather than declared candidates. All parties, especially new parties and blocks have a lot of time to gain name recognition and put forward political programs and candidates. This means that while these polls are a snapshot in time they are not reflective of the composition of political forces to come.
Other Political News
Here a rapid fire roundup of the other top political stories of the week:
The Constitutional Court (CC) approved PAS’ initiative to hold the EU referendum and presidential elections on October 20th. PAS MP’s in parliament must now pass legislation creating the referendum and taking into account the outcome of a potential “yes” vote. The Socialist Party announced their opposition to the decision and called on opposition forces to unite either in a boycott of the referendum or in favor of a “no” vote.
4 extra-parliamentary parties announce the creation of the “Împreună” (Together) Block. Platform Dignity and Truth (DA), the Coalition for Unity and Welfare (CUB), the League of Cities and Communities (LOC) and the Party of Change announced the creation of this joint block and branding this week. The Together Block comprises pro-European parties that stand in opposition to PAS. When the block was announced its representatives voted unanimously to approve a draft document titled the "Pact for Europe" which seeks to bring together all pro-EU parties in support of Moldova’s future in the block. Announcing the pact, Together representatives stated:
“We, the signatories of this declaration, consider the expression of national unity on the issue of European integration as a test for the entire political class. We declare with all conviction that no one should claim a monopoly in the field of European integration. The signatories of the “Pact for Europe” call on the authorities and the opposition to consider democratic pluralism as the fundamental rule in the process of European integration, accept the goal of European integration of Moldova and condemn any aggression and military occupation,”
PAS engages with the Together Block. Following the announcement of the new political entity and the Pact for Europe Speaker of Parliament and PAS party leader Igor Grosu stated that he will encourage PAS to sign onto the pact. Additionally, President Sandu met with leaders of the block and emphasized the importance of cooperation in support of EU integration. The Presidency released only a short readout of the meeting’s discussion topics, but sources from the Together Block say that they called on the President to dismiss 3 unnamed ministers who they say act un-transparently and who may be corrupt.
The Ministry of Education announced that 2 degree programs at the Moldova Technical University (UTM) will soon be available for study in English. Programs in veterinary medicine and IT will be translated and teachers will be trained in English with $200,000 in financial support from the Western NIS Enterprise Fund. The goal of the move is to attract foreign students to Moldova, specifically from India.
The government launched the new EVO app in beta. The app is designed to digitize many government services for citizens and companies including holding digital versions of ID cards, drivers licenses and car registration documents. Users will be able to pay taxes, fines and fees through the app as well as request documents and information from state agencies. Additionally personal information such as income, past tax payments, health insurance status and more can be viewed through the app. Users who want to participate in the testing and feedback process of the beta release can sign up online at this link. A valid digital signature is required to use the app.
Alleged Corruption in the Selection of the Prosecutor General
Note: for more information about how this investigation began and the scandal being investigated see this Moldova Matters article from March 4th.
Anti-Corruption Prosecutors presented evidence in their investigation into the rigging of the competition to appoint a new Prosecutor General this week. Prosecutors allege that as a member of the Superior Council of Prosecutors (SCP) Olesea Vîrlan deliberately influenced the competition in favor of candidate Andrei Rosca. They allege the Rosca was motivated to seek revenge against acting Prosecutor General Ion Muntean who did not offer Rosca the position of deputy acting prosecutor general previously. Additionally, in 2022, Rosca had appointed Vîrlan as acting deputy chief prosecutor of the Ialoveni region in a move described as contrary to the law.
The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s office put out the following statement on the case:
“Olesea Vîrlan actions caused serious damage to the institutional interests of the prosecutor’s office. The reputation of the Supreme Council of Prosecutors, which was supposed to hold an important, fair and transparent competition, suffered. The entire justice system of Moldova has been seriously violated, including the obligations undertaken in the context of European integration: to appoint a prosecutor general by the end of March 2024,”
Olesea Vîrlan cannot be held criminally liable for these actions under current law, so prosecutors have opted to levy an administrative offense for abuse of power. This offense comes with a potential fine of 1500 - 4500 lei and a ban on holding certain officers for 3 months to a year.
Andrei Rosca cannot be held liable for his abuse of power appointing Vîrlan to office in 2022 because the statute of limitations has run out.
Ion Munteanu stated that he did not speak to Anti-Corruption Prosecutors about the supposed “revenge” motivation noting that this must come from other evidence. He said he has not decided on whether to participate in a new competition and will wait to see whether new rules make it "impossible to falsify the competition."
Other Crime and Corruption News
Here is a rapid fire roundup of the top stories in the field of justice from the last week:
A new competition for the post of Prosecutor General was announced. Prospective candidates will have until May 15th to submit applications and corresponding documents. The authorities noted that changes were made to the regulatory framework since the failure of the last round to “ensure predictability of the competition, as well as strengthen individual and collective responsibility.”
The tender for concessions space at the Chisinau airport failed again. Only one company, Lagardere Travel Retail, applied for the latest tender and the authorities said that the application was incomplete and some documents were lacking. The tender will be restarted.
Prime Minister Recean blamed the failure of the last tender at the airport on groups linked to Ilan Shor saying "Moldova regained control of the airport after long battles and trials, now we must get rid of the Shor criminal group in these commercial premises as well."
Always an informative read. Thanks, David!