Weekly Roundup: New Details on the European Referendum this Fall
April 12, 2024
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this week’s roundup we cover the top stories in politics, security and “Shor” related news. We’re going to follow it tomorrow with a second article diving into dual corruption scandals happening at the Chisinau International Airport that wound up being too complex to handle in the Weekly Roundup format.
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Details Emerge on the Organization of the Referendum on European Integration
Parliament has begun preparing the mechanism on this fall’s scheduled constitutional referendum on Moldova’s EU accession. Towards this end parliament has prepared a draft bill adding Moldova’s goal of European integration into the constitution. If voted on, this law would go into effect pending a pro-European vote in the referendum and the approval of the Constitutional Court.
The law would insert language into the preamble of the constitution…
“… confirming the European identity of the people of Moldova, declaring integration into the European Union as the strategic goal of Moldova.”
Additionally, it would provide a mechanism for parliament to approve accession to EU treaties and for those treaties overriding Moldovan laws which are not compliant with them.
As part of this work parliament has appealed to the Constitutional Court asking the court to approve the mechanism of the constitutionally binding referendum. In this appeal language from the referendum was previewed and voters will be asked to answer the question:
“Do you support Moldova’s accession to the EU?”
Under this mechanism, parliament will not vote on these changes after the referendum but instead they would automatically take effect once the Constitutional Court affirms a “yes” vote (should that be the outcome of the referendum).
Under the draft law the presidential election and EU referendum would be held on October 20th.
Other Political News
Parliament has proposed a new professional holiday called “Entrepreneur’s Day” to be held annually on August 21st. While proposing the draft, lawmakers spoke of the importance of recognizing the value of entrepreneurship and job creation in the economy and society.
Author’s Note: Professional holidays are not days off but instead days when society is asked to appreciate some professional class. The system is a legacy of the Soviet Union and includes holidays for various classes of workers and laborers, teachers, accountants and more. The introduction of “entrepreneurs” (read: “capitalists”) into the pantheon of honored workers is an irony that would not sit well with the original intention of the Bolsheviks. It shows in part that Moldova continues on a long transitional path towards embracing a market economy.
International Affairs and the War
President Sandu has continued to hold meetings and discussions with international partners and her peers in the EU stressing the need for more air defense systems to be delivered to Ukraine. Russia’s pace of attacks has escalated as Ukraine’s air defense systems run perilously low on ammunition. Missile attacks against Odesa killed 4 this week including a 10 year old girl and injured 14 more. Additionally, the largest thermal power plant in the Kyiv region was completely destroyed in a missile strike on April 11th. All workers at the plant survived, but the plant, which accounts for 57% of the region’s electricity used by industry, is no longer functional.
Commenting on Ukraine’s new ambassador to Moldova advisor to President Zelenskyy Mykhailo Podolyak spoke to the press saying:
“This is not an honorary exile, but an increase in the status and importance of the region. We understand that Russia is and will continue to carry out many more attempts to destabilize the situation through pro-Russian parties, Gagauz autonomy and the Transnistrian enclave. These are constant propaganda campaigns. Danilov is an experienced person in terms of understanding these risks, what Russia is, what technologies it uses. Because they were also used in Ukraine.
For me, the appointment of Danilov is a clear proof that the status of the Republic of Moldova is extremely important for us. If Russia expands in Ukraine through war, it does the same in Moldova, but with different methods. Informational, political, revolutionary, cultural,
In other international news the upcoming summit of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) will no longer be held in Chisinau. Moldova was set to host the event but denied entry to senior Russian officials saying that they could only attend via video link. Russian pressure on UN institutions forced a change of venue. Now the summit will be held in Rome but with Moldova chairing the event.
Transnistria and Moldovan Security
The Moldovan think tank Institute of Policies and European Reforms held a forum on the subject of Transnistrian re-integration this week which was attended by several hundred people. Among the attendees were Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebryan, EU Special Representative Dorota Dlouchy-Suliga, Ukrainian Ambassador at Large Pawn Rogoway and US Ambassador Kent Logsdon.
Speaking at the conference EU Special representative Dorota Dlouchy-Suliga, tasked with representing the block on Transnistrian issues, stated:
“It is in Tiraspol’s interests to maintain security and stability, but this status quo cannot continue indefinitely. […] If the status quo is maintained, Tiraspol will not be able to adapt to natural changes. The war in Ukraine has changed the emphasis: 70% of exports from Tiraspol go to the EU. And it is important that European standards are respected in Tiraspol. And if they go to the European market, they must comply with these standards,”
Speaking to attendees Deputy PM Serebryan said that the current focus is on European integration, including expanding the benefits of the process to Transnistrians and bringing the region into compliance along with Moldova. He stated:
“We need to apply tax, customs regulations, European standards, […] environmental standards. […] Then the settlement will not be something parallel, but an independent process driven by European integration.”
A journalist from Transnistria asked the Deputy PM why no “leaders” from the breakaway region were present at the conference. Serebryan replied that the conference is open to all, publicly televised and that they were invited.
The Deputy PM refused to concretely answer questions about the cost of reintegrating the region noting that the situation is evolving. He did explain that key challenges included paying for pensions, subsidizing industry and more. The Deputy PM stated that integration of SMEs from the left bank would not be challenging and that some larger industry could also transition but that many larger companies would need to be "restructured."
Other Security and Transnistria News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of other important stories of the week:
In Tiraspol a 34 year old woman was arrested for passing out poisoned baked goods to children. The woman was passing out cupcakes in a park when the mother of a child noticed a strong acetone smell coming from the cupcake. She called the police who found the woman was carrying rat-poison and had used it to lace the brownies. A 2 year old was transported to the hospital immediately after taking a bite of the cupcake. Another parent brought their 4 year old to the hospital later after seeing the news story. Both children were transported from Tiraspol to the specialist children’s hospital in Chisinau and are in “moderate” condition.
Spring conscription begins. Between April and July Moldova is calling up 1450 conscripts for service in the national army. Intakes of this level are normal and happen twice per year. Parties affiliated with Ilan Shor and the Socialists are using the news to drive fear and false narratives of Moldova preparing for war.
Crime and Corruption
This week the main stories in law enforcement are dual scandals unfolding around allegations of corruption at the Chisinau International Airport. These stories are too complex to deal with in the Weekly Roundup so you will have a second dedicated article in your inbox tomorrow.
In an another, somewhat amusing (and incredibly frustrating) legal story, Igor Dodon has appealed to the European Court of Human Rights alleging “violation of the right to a fair trial.” In his filing he complains about the slow speed of his trial as well as travel restrictions put on him as the trial creeps along.
At the same time, the primary legal strategy of Mr. Dodon’s lawyers seems to be delaying the trial as much as possible. As we wrote about last month, Dodon’s lawyers succeeded in a motion to bring outside experts to analyze the widely shared video which purports to show him accepting a cash bribe from Plahotniuc. The judge allowed one year for the defense to examine the video.
The idea that it is possible to so flagrantly delay trial, and then bring suit, very possibly successfully, against the state for the delays caused, is a pretty succinct summary of the Moldovan legal system.
Bashkan Gutsul Returns to Moscow
Bashkan Gutsul once again traveled to Moscow for meetings with Russian government officials. On this trip she met with the leadership of Promsvyazbank, a wholly state owned bank under US, EU and UK sanctions. The bank is said by Forbes to be a primary supporter of Russia’s military industrial complex.
During the meeting Gutsul signed an agreement, which could be interpreted as an illegal treaty, with the bank. Under this agreement the bank would issue MIR debit cards for 20,000 pensioners and 5,000 local government employees in Gagauzia. These cards would then be topped up each month with 2,000 lei “bonuses” from “donors” abroad.
Note: MIR is a Russian competitor to VISA and Mastercard introduced in 2015. It became the dominant payment processor in Russia after American and European firms pulled out following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prior to the escalation of the war, MIR was in use in many post-Soviet countries as well as Turkey. It now only works in Belarus, Transnistria, Tajikistan, Cuba, Vietnam and Laos. Other countries closed off access in response to sanctions.
Responding to this news, government spokesman Daniel Voda called it "empty promises and deception." PAS MP Radu Marian also called it “deception” and stated that "The only cards they can issue to people are playing cards.”
Moldova does not accept cards from the MIR system and they are not interoperable with Moldovan banks. Bashkan Gutsul has said that these cards could allow people to transfer money from Russian to Moldovan accounts - something the government says is not possible. She also says that you can use them in Russia.
Valeriu Pasha, director of Watchdog.md, commented on the news noting that people could theoretically drive to Transnistria to pull money out. The real purpose is political Pasha said stating:
“They will try to deliver these cards, the central authorities will state that this is illegal, they will respond by shouting that they are being interfered with,”
Valeria Pasha went further in a quote given to Newsmaker providing analysis on the changing power dynamics in the pro-Russian political parties in Moldova saying:
“Recently there was one trip to Moscow, now the second. And what happens after the first? [Ex-presidents] Vladimir Voronin and Igor Dodon are starting to pay their respects to her [Gutsul]. This means that the whole bet is on her, on who will lead the country when Russia plans to seize power in Moldova,”
“Dodon is not allowed to meet even with Putin’s bodyguards, Shor meets at most with [State Duma deputy Leonid] Kalashnikov. And Gutsul meets with Putin and [the head of the Russian presidential administration Sergei] Kiriyenko.”
President Sandu responded to Gutsul’s new trip to Russia by linking any dealings with Russia as supporting the war saying:
“I don’t understand how people don’t see where there is peace and where there is war. … For us, maintaining peace will continue to be our top priority. We are on the side of peace and cannot support those who started this war, who kill civilians every day. People in Comrat who go there believe that war is normal. I don’t understand these people,”
The President has also recently begun to focus more of her time on Gagauzia where she recently visited and spoke with local authorities in Comrat, Ceadir Lunga and Vulcanesti and in meetings with students and teachers at Comrat State University. On some of her stops she was joined by members of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia including the Deputy Speaker Gheorghe Leiciu. Shor affiliated political groups organized protests to greet the president on her arrival.
Other Shor Party News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the other important stories regarding Ilan Shor’s political forces in Moldova:
Gutsul threatens secession in Moscow. In an interview the Bashkan gave she stated that should Moldova choose to unite with Romania Gagauzia would secede. She further stated that if Chisinau attempted to intervene with police or military they would call for help from outside partners “including Russia.”
Romania has banned 116 Moldovans from entering the country. These were people who Ilan Shor bussed to Bucharest Romania in order to protest President Sandu’s arrival at the March EPP summit. The director of Moldova’s Interpol office explained the ban saying that the Romanian authorities have deemed these individuals to have "posed and continue to pose a danger to the national security of Romania." He also noted that Romania may continue to add people to the ban list in the future. A few days later Maxim Morosan, former Socialist Party candidate for mayor of Balti tried to travel to Romania and found himself banned on national security grounds. Morosan was surprised because he said he had never been to Romania or any country “in Europe.” Morosan lived for 20 years in Russia, working for a portion of the time as a magician, before moving back to Moldova and starting multiple associations and a political career. Multiple projects that he started were funded by notorious gangster Grigore Caramalac.
A witness spoke at the Shor Party illegal financing trial describing the monetary distribution network. The trial, which implicates Shor Party senior politician Marina Tauber, is focused on illicit funding of the party. The witness was a courier from August 2022 until their arrest in October 2022. During that time they delivered money to various districts on a weekly basis to fund party offices, rent and salaries. The night before the arrest the witness participated in filling envelopes with more than 5 million lei for the next day’s distribution. Following arrest the courier turned state’s witness.
Energy and Infrastructure
While on a working visit to the United States Minister of Energy Parlikov spoke with the US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt. During this meeting the Minister emphasized Moldova’s support for the “Vertical Gas Corridor” which Moldova joined with Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. In the meeting he said that Chisinau will not actively block gas supplies to Transnistria after the end of the Ukrainian energy transit contract with Russia saying:
“There is a political will in Chisinau to maintain stability in the region. And Moldova will not interfere with Gazprom’s gas supplies to the Transnistrian region after the expiration of the contract with Ukraine. However, alternative solutions will have to be sought if gas cannot be transported along the traditional route from the east directly to the Transnistrian region. And in this case, the vertical corridor will again play an important role, since, otherwise, it will be impossible to ensure gas supplies to the Left Bank,”
It’s important to note that Chisinau does not have to actively interfere with Russian gas deliveries should Ukraine stop the flow of gas through its pipelines. It is possible for Russian gas to be routed through other pipelines though this would increase the cost and likely result in Transnistria having to pay Moldova for gas transit. Currently it remains a major unknown of 2024 how Chisinau, Tiraspol, Kyiv and the Kremlin will attempt to resolve this problem that will begin in December.