Weekly Roundup
November 2, 2022
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Russian Missile Lands in Moldovan Village
A Russian missile flying in Ukraine towards targets in western Ukrine was shot down this week by Ukrainian air defenses. The missile, after being intercepted, fell into the village of Naslavcea in northern Moldova causing an explosion and lightly damaging houses and the local school. No one in the town was injured.
The Moldovan authorities condemned this violation of Moldova’s territory and announced that they will expel a diplomat from the Russian Embassy. This is the most forceful diplomatic signal from Chisinau to Moscow since the beginning of the war. The Kremlin announced that they will respond to the expulsion but did not announce any actions. Most likely a Moldovan diplomat in Russia will be expelled in the coming days.
Speaking of the continued air raids, and Moldova specifically, President Zelensky noted that 45 out of 55 missiles were intercepted in Monday’s attack and said:
“Each new Russian strike on our civilian targets only facilitates and brings closer the international consensus on Russia's responsibility. And the fragments of the Russian rocket that fell on the territory of Moldova only remind how important it is to defend together against this evil - from rashism, which does not recognize either state borders or human values,"
Meanwhile, President Sandu spoke at a meeting of the Romanian Parliament calling for solidarity in difficult times. The President said:
“I know how difficult it is to help when there is a difficult situation in your house. But today we live in a truly dramatic and decisive time, and we need each other. We live with a terrible war near our borders. A war that is killing innocent people in Ukraine and endangering the freedom of everyone in the region. The war is getting closer. Russian missiles aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure also fall on our soil. It happened yesterday,”
The message of her speech was that in times like these no country can stand alone. She specifically called for more support for Moldova in the energy crisis noting that the household bills for power in Moldova are now 2x higher than in Romania.
Oligarchs, FSB Agents and Sanctions
The news last week that the US Treasury was imposing Global Magnitsky sanctions on Plahotnuic, Shor, the Shor Party and a number of Russian agents who supported them, has sent shockwaves through the Moldovan political system.
Before the dust even settled on the sanctions news, the Washington Post published a front page article about Russian malign influence in Moldova. The article, which drew on a trove of documents and materials obtained from Ukrainian intelligence services, detailed FSB contacts with Moldovan political parties. Specifically, it outlined how FSB hired political consultants reported to Moscow after the 2021 parliamentary elections that former President Igor Dodon had an "irreversibly damaged reputation" and specified that he needed to be removed from the political system with "surgical virtuosity." This removal was carried out by creating the Moldovan-Russian Business Council, an organization supposedly designed to strengthen business ties between the countries, and by giving Mr. Dodon a paid position there. For his “work” at the council, Mr. Dodon was paid a $29,016 monthly salary plus a $14,508 monthly bonus ($43,524 per month). Russian oligarch Igor Chaika, who was also sanctioned by the US Treasury last week, was responsible for managing Dodon.
In the article it was revealed that as part of this deal, Mr. Dodon was required to clear all public statements with the Kremlin operatives. In a text exchanged published by the Washington Post Mr. Dodon bristled at this restriction insisting he was a “free person,” to which Chaika responded “Free, but restricted by the corporate ethics of the [Russian-Moldovan] Union.” Dodon outlined the quid-pro-quo saying “If you are forwarding the condition that for one of my public statements you will cut my wages and close the new business council … then let’s speak about this in detail.”
Having removed Mr. Dodon from the political scene, FSB hired political agents identified the Shor Party as their new political vehicle calling Shor a "showman populist" but "manipulable." These agents began working for Shor in March 2021 but kept their presence secret using burner phones and concealing their apartment addresses in Chisinau even from other Shor Party members. The FSB also played a key role in shielding Shor’s control over the Chisinau Airport by facilitating the transfer of ownership to a Russian billionaire who acted as Shor’s cutout.
Shor did not bother to deny these accusations but simply noted that he had many consultants and did not remember these ones. Mr. Dodon’s lawyers denied all of this information saying that he had only a $9000 total salary in his time with the so-called business organization.
Also commenting on the sanctions, and reporting following them, Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban announced he will sue Prime Minister Gavrilita for her comments which noted (correctly) that his MAN Party was mentioned in the Treasury sanctions. Mr. Ceban also wrote to the US Embassy and demands they issue a clarification in the next 10 days.
Plahotniuc Returns to Politics?
Responding to the announcement of sanctions, fugitive oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc announced that he is returning to Moldovan politics. The oligarch has not been heard from since he fled Moldova in 2019.
In a written interview, which was verified by Plahotniuc’s lawyers, he said that he only gave up power in 2019 in order to “avoid bloodshed” but maintains that his ouster from power was illegal. Plahotniuc said he will not return too Moldova in person due to the criminal cases against him but will become active on the phone and television. He claims that the PAS Party has mismanaged the country and he is needed to set things right.
Reaction in Moldova has been mixed. Some mocked Plahotniuc, who was notoriously loath to appear on video, for even now doing a written interview to announce his return. Political Scientist Victor Ciobanu put forward a logical, if frightening opinion saying:
"In my opinion, everything is logical. First, where is the safest place for him on the ball? [earth] That's right - in Moldova. While the reformers will rush about with vetting-prevetting, and they intended for themselves a whole mandate, the judges will brush it off for another 10 years ahead. He is already giving us lectures on violations of the law. Secondly, after the American sanctions, here is the only place where its full-fledged food base has been preserved - the schemes are all, well, or almost everything is in place, and the right little men rule them, ”
Essentially, the argument is that Moldova’s justice system is so fragile it may not be able to hold Plahotniuc or Shor even if they walked up to the border today. After a year, PAS has not yet appointed a Prosecutor General or even fully removed the previous one appointed by Plahotniuc. Judges continue to endlessly delay the case against Ilan Shor. Marina Tauber, Shor’s deputy here, has gone from prison to house arrest to freedom to house arrest again just in the last 2 months as prosecutors wrangle with judges about her pre-trial detention. US Sanctions have made much of the world unsafe for these men and their money. The question is whether or not Moldova might be a safer place for them in the end.
Not all share this pessimistic view. Responding to Plahotniuc’s promise to return, PAS MP Dumitru Alaiba said:
"We are waiting for him at home. We are waiting for them all, from all corners of the world"
As if on cue… one of them showed up.
On November 2nd, Vladimir Andronachi arrived at the Moldovan border and was promptly arrested. Mr. Andronachi was a close confidant of Plahotniuc and is wanted for his role in the Theft of the Billion as well as the MetalFeros case. Following the PAS election victory in July 2021 Andronachi was one of many allegedly corrupt officials who went straight to the airport and departed as soon as the vote count was announced. He has been on the Interpol wanted list since July but his whereabouts were unknown. It now appears that he was in Ukraine where the authorities abruptly declared him "persona non-grata" and escorted him to the Moldovan border. The actual details of his ejection from Ukraine are unknown and Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Veronica Dragolin noted that they did not have full details. She implied that Moldova was not told in advance of Ukrainian actions. and his arrival surprised border guards. She said that more details would be announced, but for now it appears that US sanctions against Plahotniuc inspired the Ukrainian government to send Mr. Andronachi home. Currently he is being held by the Anti-Corruption Prosecutors.
So we have a new test case for Moldovan justice. We’ll have to see how how adept the system will be at constraining a high value, high net worth, individual like this.
Problems Mount for the Shor Party
The Shor Party again held protests on Sunday with around 4000 people marching in Chisinau. Marchers were again prevented by the police from occupying the central square as there was another (conveniently timed) agricultural fair there instead. Attempting to get to the square, protestors clashed with police with some throwing eggs and condoms filled with an unknown yellow liquid. 80 people were cited for the disturbances and 28 were detained by police. Valery Klimenko, a municipal counselor from the Shor Party had a heart attack while being detained and was treated at the hospital before being released to recuperate at home.
Meanwhile, the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s office has continued their investigations of the Shor Party conducting searches at the party offices on November 2nd. Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s also released a final count of the money seized in past weeks from the Shor Party as 4.2 million lei ($218,000) plus $4,000 in USD.
Additional trouble is brewing as investigative news outlet RISE reports that Russian FSB agents are helping run the protests. Following these reports the Prosecutor General’s office and the Security and Information Service (SIS) announced they were investigating the claims.
At least partly in response to threats against public order posed by these protests, the government announced that a police reform bill has been introduced in parliament. This bill would criminalize insulting police officers or failing to obey their commands. The bill also plans to abolish the National Inspectorate of Carabinieri (Moldova’s gendarme) and incorporate them into the national police service as a special section. The Carabinieri will continue their role maintaining public order, guarding government buildings and acting as "internal troops" as part of the national defense in cases of martial law or state of siege. But they will also be augmented with police powers and split into 3 operational bases, North, Center and South. Each of these regional hubs will also be augmented with a Fulgar Police Special Forces Brigade (SWAT). Currently most of these functions only exist in Chisinau.
Energy Crisis
This week, the Collins English Dictionary announced that their word of the year for 2022 is “permacrisis” which is a fitting description of the Moldovan energy situation. This week, GazProm announced that they will continue to supply Moldova with natural gas but they are further restricting the amount resulting in a 60% shortfall in supplies. MoldovaGaz noted that there is no technical reason for this restriction as all contract elements have been fulfilled and pre-payments made on time.
Meanwhile, knock-on effects are moving through the Moldovan economy with Apa-Canal, the Chisinau water utility, announcing that they may have to shut off some water supply as the company is facing financial insolvency due to rising energy prices. Most likely this will not come to pass and the company is simply pushing the government to allow them to raise water prices in the capital.
The main effect of the gas reduction in November has been on electricity supply. Following the news, the Transnistrian authorities called a meeting of their security council where they blamed Moldova for not providing them with sufficient gas decrying what they called "unprecedented and treacherous actions." In response, they announced a cutoff of electrical supplies from the MoldGRES plant to Moldova. Last month this plant supplied 70% of Moldova’s electricity, last week it was 27%, today it is zero.
As of now Moldova is facing a deficit of 20% of the electricity needed and is working to buy more supplies on the Romanian electrical exchange market. Energy companies are urgently requesting increased prices for consumers with Premier Energy (Chisinau, center and south) asking for a 54% increase and FEE Nord (Northern Moldova) asking for an 88% increase. The national energy regulator ANRE is holding an emergency meeting tonight to decide on allowable price increases. Most experts agree that consumer prices will go up with some predicting prices doubling or even tripping when compared with last year.
Addressing the shortfall, PAS MP Dumitru Alaiba said:
“Russia, a much larger country than us, is trying to intimidate us. Let's not give them such pleasure. We'll manage. Not without cost, but we'll manage. If we have to, we'll freeze for one winter. We'll sit a little longer in the dark if need be. We will save and at the same time understand how much electricity has been wasted so far. We will pay the price for freedom,”
It isn’t clear how much of society agrees with Mr. Alaiba’s defiant statements and the cohesion of society in the face of these challenges is guaranteed to be tested in the coming weeks and months.
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