Weekly Roundup
January 24, 2023
Moldova at Davos
This past week, the World Economic Forum has been going on in Davos Switzerland. The yearly ritual of the rich and powerful mingling on a snowcapped mountaintop tends to draw lots of journalists’ stories about who is and isn’t there and what the main topics of conversation are. This year, predictably, the main topic is the war in Ukraine as well as the economic shocks and after affects. Notably absent this year were most leaders of G7 countries excepting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who has continued to muddle the question of whether or not Germany will provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine or allow other countries (notably Poland) to do so. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also attended the event where she met on the sidelines with President Sandu.
President Sandu attended the event and met with Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. Additionally she met with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to discuss public service reform and various business leaders about the possibility of investing in Moldova.
Reporting indicates that President Sandu was pressing EU leaders for air defense systems, noting that while Ukraine is, and should be, the primary focus, Moldova is very exposed and also needs to augment its defense capabilities in this sector. No announcements of concrete support have been made as of yet.
Meanwhile, Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba discussed entry into the Moldovan market with various leading companies including fast fashion company H&M. The Minister stressed not only Moldova’s interest in the retailer but also the advanced state of Moldova’s textile and clothing industry as a potential supplier.
The biggest news to come out of Moldova's presence at Davos was a response from President Sandu to a journalist’s question (link Politico in English) about whether or not Moldova was considering joining NATO. The President replied (excerpts):
“Now, there is a serious discussion … about our capacity to defend ourselves, whether we can do it ourselves, or whether we should be part of a larger alliance,”
“And if we come, at some point, to the conclusion as a nation that we need to change neutrality, this should happen through a democratic process.” [likely a national referendum due to Moldova’s constitutional neutrality - something that a majority of the population do not support according to recent opinion polls]
“Thanks to the Ukrainians’ courage and resistance, we are not facing military threats as of now,” ... “We are facing a range of risks, but none of it compares to the situation in Ukraine and, and to the price that Ukrainians are paying.”
This answer nodded to a potential future in an alliance without naming NATO or suggesting a change in Moldova’s constitutional neutrality in the near future. Even with this hedging, the response from Mr. Dodon and the Socialist Party was immediate with their statement decrying any shift from neutrality and suggesting that President Sandu is a western puppet. The Russian Government similarly responded saying that movement towards NATO would be a path towards “Moldova destroying itself” (though they left little ambiguity as to who would be pulling the trigger).
Moldovan Security News
The Moldovan Army has announced they will be holding military exercises at all bases across Moldova from January 24 - February 4th in order to test the readiness and cohesion of units. They asked that in the context of exercises people not publicly report the movement of military vehicles saying:
“During the exercises, columns of military vehicles will move along national roads from range to range, in the central, northern and southern regions of the country. In this regard, we ask citizens not to speculate on the topic of exercises and the movement of military equipment, ”
Speaking about the future of Transnistria, Moldova’s Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mihai Popsoi announced this week that President Zelenskyy had made it clear that the status of Transnistria will figure into eventual negotiations between himself and President Putin about the end of the war. Popsoi stressed that Moldova will only accept a peaceful solution to the Transnistria problem but said that the country must prepare for a "window of opportunity" that may appear when the war finally ends.
For reference, as of new January 2023, 351,000 out of 360,000 Transnistrian residents already have Moldovan citizenship (and can vote in elections). This number has climbed significantly in recent years. Meanwhile, only 200,000 Transnistrians have Russian citizenship as well.
A Political Hot Potato
This week the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) made a landmark ruling in favor of the rights of same sex couples in “Fedotova and Others v. Russia.” The court ruled that article 8 on European Convention on Human Rights applies to same sex couples. The article states:
“Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and correspondence, and public authorities are not allowed to interfere in the exercise of this right, for unless such interference is prescribed by law and is necessary in a democratic society.”
Members of the Council of Europe, including Moldova, are obliged to update their legislation to reflect this new ruling. In practice, the court does not have the ability to compel countries to update their laws but a failure to do so will result in the country losing cases brought before the court and suffering financial penalties accordingly (a situation that Moldova is no stranger to).
Reacting to the ruling Mr. Dodon says he will do everything in his power “so that the so-called values alien to us are by no means introduced in Moldova.”
There has been total silence from senior PAS leadership in parliament, government and the presidency. Only PAS MP Radu Marian commented saying that the authorities are still “studying the ruling.” Either PAS is unsure how to react or they are hoping to play for time and let the problem pass by for now.
NGO leaders and LGBTQ rights groups note that there are multiple examples from Europe of countries that allow same sex partnerships without legalizing gay marriage. Such arrangements would allow for medical decision making, hospital visitations and inheritance questions, solving the majority of acute problems for Moldova’s LGBTQ community.
Highlighting just what a political hot-potato this issue is, the Development Partnership Center presented a study this week called “Prejudice and Marginalization in Moldova in 2022.” The study aimed to create a “social distancing index” quantifying which groups Moldovans are most likely to avoid associating with. Specifically, who people want in their family units, as neighbors, as business associates, etc. The ranking went from 0 - 6 with 6 being most marginalized or “undesirable” in the eyes of respondents. The top most marginalized groups with their rankings are as follows:
LGBTQ 5.7
People with HIV/AIDS 4.4
Ex-Convicts 3.5
People of African decent 2.8
Muslims 2.7
Roma 2.4
People with mental or intellectual disabilities 2.1
The study ranked groups with a 2+ rating as marginalized - aka most people in society are not wiling to create relationships with members of that group. Lower on the ranking we found:
Expats / non-citizens 2
Religious minorities 1.9
Jews 1.7
People with physical disabilities 0.9
People who don't speak Romanian 0.8
Ethnic Russians 0.8
Even at a glance, we can see that Moldovan society is a long way from embracing LGBTQ rights, setting up both a long fight towards equal rights in Moldova and a political mess for PAS in light of the ECtHR ruling.
… interestingly, it found that Russian speakers and ethnic Russians were the least marginalized group studied. Putting the lie to the Kremlin’s many “genocide against Russian speakers” talking points.
Other Political News
Here are a few other political stories making the news this week:
Renato Usatii has (again) returned to politics after his “retirement” following the 2021 election. He plans to revitalize “Our Party” ahead of local elections this year.
Former President Voronin led the Communist Party to Chisinau’s (well hidden) statue of Lenin in order to lay flowers at the monument on the 99th anniversary of his death. Voronin spoke negatively about President Sandu and the current political leadership and then said: “And may the name of Lenin and his contribution to the development of human civilization live for centuries, and we, the Communists, will continue to follow the Leninist course!”
Ilan Shor has retained a UK lawyer named Shaul David Brazil representing BCL Solicitors LLP in the hopes of challenging his prosecution in the ECtHR. Shor previously had retained a US law firm which abandoned him after the US applied sanctions. BCL Solicitors LLP has been connected to representing Kremlin connected Russian oligarchs multiple times.
Economic News
Here is a quick roundup of the economic news in Moldova this week:
Parliamentary Speaker Igor Grosu spoke with a group of Romanian and German investors this week saying “Welcome to the Republic of Moldova! We need much more investment. Thanks to investments that create jobs, bring profits and good wages, Moldova will be able to develop steadily and get closer to the economies of the EU countries,” he went on to note the government’s progress in improving the business environment and saying “Businessmen have no time to waste.” It is worth noting that anyone listening to these remarks will understand perfectly why Moldova needs foreign investment… but far less why foreign investors should bother with Moldova. There have been steps in the past year to improve “Invest Moldova” (formerly MEIPO) to make the case to international investors. But realistically, there is still almost no one talking to international companies in a way that they understand. This is a long standing problem for Moldova where we see President Sandu, top ministers and MPs and other leaders making appeals for investment without seeing real structural attraction mechanisms being implemented.
A report in the financial times talked up Moldova’s wineries noting that Moldova has the highest density of vineyards per capita in the world. The report quoted Tony Laithwaites, one of the UK’s largest winemakers as saying:
“Today's trip to Moldova still feels like my first trip in 2002. . . The countryside is still medieval, horses and carts, flocks of geese everywhere. But the big surprise was these futuristic modern wineries that seem to have landed on earth like spaceships. Their winemaking jumped from the 19th to the 21st century, bypassing the 20th.” The article went on to strongly recommend many Moldovan vintages and talk of the high quality of Moldovan wines on the European market.There were 2 fires in grain elevators in the port of Giurgiulesti this week. The first silo caught fire and collapsed on January 16th, the second on January 20th. The second fire was only extinguished today. Prosecutors are looking into the causes of the fire, but the Prime Minister leveled accusations at the commercial operators of the port saying that anyone found to be responsible by flaunting safety regulations or cutting corners would be held responsible. The government noted that the small port is considered critical national infrastructure and requires more security.
Slightly Comical News…
In closing, police reports of actions over the last 24 hours included arrests or tickets for drunk driving including 8 against people operating horse carts under a state of intoxication. Echoing Mr. Laithwaites’ statement about wineries it is clear that Moldova straddles multiple centuries and times. The country horse carts are absolutely part of the charm of this small country… as is the likelihood the driver might offer passersby some of their home made wine. A story like this cannot help but highlight the clashes of modernity and tradition in Moldova’s beautiful countryside.
I agree that the horse carts are an essential part of Moldova’s charm.
Good to learn about Moldovan wineries and wine. Is any exported to the US?