Weekly Roundup

March 28, 2023

Moldovan Security and Transnistria

This week Shor Party leader Marina Tauber abruptly injected herself into the regional security conversation when she gave a press conference alleging that Moldova and Romania are preparing to attack Transnistria on April 17th.

Accessed via ZdG

"According to the data of the international special services, received from several sources. There is verified information that our authorities, Maia Sandu and Dorin Recean, are preparing a military challenge on the border with Transnistria. This military challenge is planned for April 17th. (…) Last week, our authorities (…) sent to Romania ten thousand National Police uniforms and ten thousand Moldovan Army uniforms. The purpose of this action is the participation of the international contingent in military actions on the territory of the Republic of Moldova",

Responding to Ms. Tauber government spokesman Daniel Voda stated:

" Ms. Tauber's claims are false and part of a constant discourse promoting fear and division in society. Ms. Tauber is trying to cover up to funders the total failure of paid protests. State institutions are working to prevent these challenges and keep the situation under control ,"

A few things are worth taking note of here. Firstly, Tauber referenced “international special services” (unnamed) as the source of her information. If she actually has any sources for these accusations, which is not guaranteed, then she is undoubtably referring to Russian intelligence agencies. Whether or not she received information, or just made it up, it is worth reflecting on just how brazen this statement is. A sitting member of parliament, gave a press conference in parliament, accusing her country of plotting a war based on intelligence from the Kremlin. The days of Russia trying to hide its hand in Moldovan politics are clearly over.

In his response, Mr. Voda clearly implies that Tauber has simply made up these claims in order to create fear and uncertainty and prove to her “funders” that she is capable of being as destabilizing as they want her to be. Simply put, the government is saying that these inflammatory statements are actually a sign of how poorly the disruption efforts of the Shor party are going.

Author’s Analysis: Just to be clear, the idea that Moldova and Romania would plot to attack Transnistria at this time (or any time) is ludicrous. Tauber is speaking to a domestic audience trying to whip up anti-Romanian and anti-government sentiment. This is not likely a winning strategy but plays well with some segments of the population nostalgic for the Soviet Union and mistrustful of Romania. As Mr. Voda mentioned, at the core she is trying to show results to her “funders” so that the mass influx of cash for protestors (much of it being seized by authorities) will continue. The fact that her comments force her into the public spotlight and and occasionally drive poorly researched international press articles is just icing on the cake.

Other Security News

In addition to Ms. Tauber’s statements, there were a number of other security related stories in the news this week. Here is a quick roundup:

• The Moldovan Army announces more trainings and exercises - This week the army announced multiple sets of live fire exercises over the coming months. Firstly, reservists will be called up for “refresher” trainings in April, May, June and September. Reservists will receive a summons with information on when they should report for training. Additionally, from March 27 - April 7 regular Moldovan Army units will host "Joint Combined Training" JCET-2023 exercises with colleagues from the US, UK and Romanian armies. The army said that all these trainings are standard and asked citizens not to worry about military equipment moving on the roads between training grounds.

• SIS Blocks 5 Russian Websites - Moldova’s Security and Information Service SIS blocked 5 Sputnik branded “news” websites in Moldova. Two had .md domains, 1 .ro, 1 .ru and Sputnik.com. A member of the Russian “Human Rights Council” responded by calling for economic sanctions against Moldova in response. It is worth noting that Russia has blocked over 5000 websites since the beginning of the invasion including most Moldovan news sites.

• Moldova’s “Reunification Plan” - Last week, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine stated that Moldova has a 7 year plan to reintegrate Transnistria. He spoke on the topic as a criticism of Moldova saying that it is critical for Ukraine that “Moldova ends its situation with Transnistria” on a faster timeline. Initially, the Bureau of Reintegration did not confirm or deny the 7 year plan, only stating that the government sets these priorities and that Moldova’s position is that only a peaceful resolution is acceptable. Following this, Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebrian stated in an interview that the Bureau is working on a “concept” for integration (not a plan) and that this is most likely what the Ukrainian side is referring to. He noted that the government is not rushing on this front and that any such plans will not be public but will guide negotiations for a peaceful solution with Transnistria.

• Transnistria convicts Chisinau resident Alexander Dimov of throwing molotov cocktails at a Transnistria military recruitment office last May. They allege that Mr. Dimov worked with an unnamed accomplice at the behest of Moldovan security services. He was sentenced to 20 years after pleading not guilty in a closed proceeding.

• Transnistria invites FBI to participate in “terrorism” investigation - Transnistria’s leader Vadim Krasnoselsky stated that he spoke to US Ambassador Logsdon and invited the FBI to assist in investigating the alleged plot to attack members of the OSCE delegation including Americans. The call was not confirmed by the US Embassy at time of writing. Most likely this is an attempt by the Transnistrian “authorities” to lend credibility to their ever-changing allegations about Ukrainian attempts to assassinate an ever-changing list of targets.

Political Updates

The main political story of the last week is the escalating conflict between the government and judges on judicial reform. Following the failure of the General Assembly of Judges to appoint members of the Supreme Council of Magistracy SCM from the list of pre-vetted judges, President Sandu announced the following:

We all saw what happened on Friday, when the SCM members were supposed to be elected. Unfortunately, the vote did not take place. The general meeting of judges was held in violation of the law, which does not provide for the possibility of interrupting the meeting. […] Justice was seized in the interests of some judges, who left the criminals at large. Dear judges, I want you to pay attention to my statement. You have the choice to continue to be part of the problem or be part of the solution,”

She announced multiple concrete actions to break the stalemate. First, Parliament will appoint non-judge members of the SCM from among the lawyers and legal scholars who passed the pre-vetting process. The President announced that the SCM will be functional within 30 days. Parliamentary Speaker Grosu confirmed that this would be done on March 30th and that with the non-judge members the SCM will have a quorum and be able to function. He called on judges to finish their job of appointing judges to the SCM. Secondly, President Sandu announced that Parliament will create a special Anti-Corruption Court within the next 3 months. This court will focus on cases of large corruption and corruption within the judiciary.

Socialists accused President Sandu and PAS of politicizing the judiciary saying:

“PSRM condemns the interference and pressure from the regime of Maia Sandu. The Supreme Council of Magistracy should not turn into a political appendage of the PAS and pursue a policy of strengthening Sandu's personal power,”

Given that the pre-vetting commission was a non-partisan body and appointments to the SCM are only selected after candidates pass these integrity checks, the arguments of the Socialists are not very well founded. One thing that is clear though is that after a year of slow movement on judicial reform the gloves have come off. This story will likely develop through legal challenges and additional political maneuvering by judges who are not keen on the upcoming integrity vetting process that the SCM is set to manage.

Romanian not “Moldovan” Language

Last week, President Sandu promulgated the law on recognizing the national language as Romanian and not “Moldovan.” Speaking on the occasion she said:

Those who told us for decades in a row that we, the citizens of the Republic of Moldova, speak the "Moldovan" language and not Romanian - pursued only one thing: to divide us. And this is because, once you have divided a nation, you can subjugate and control it more easily. A divided people is not a united force that can protect itself. Those who tried to divide us were not worried about linguistics, but how to keep Moldova stuck in an eternal national quarrel.

I am convinced that the Romanian language must and can be the catalyst for the consolidation of our society, and for this it must be respected and, of course, learned and spoken by all our citizens.

A spokesman fro the Russian government was not pleased and stated that if “historical realities” were to be respected that all of Romania should be speaking “Moldovan” and not the other way around. Beyond this statement being petty and stupid, it is also logically incoherent. For the first time the Russian government has acknowledged that Romania and Moldova actually do speak the same language and that there is no difference between Romanian and “Moldovan.”

The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded forcefully saying:

“It is our sovereign right to decide what we call the language we speak and we do not accept history lessons. We reiterate the call to the Russian side not to admit interference in the internal affairs of our country",

Ignoring the petulant statements from the Kremlin, this is a historic moment for Moldova with the country finally putting a long running argument rooted in the Stalinist era to bed.

The Socialists lose another MP to Shor

This week the Socialist Party lost another MP when Irina Lozovan announced she would be resigning from the party and joining the “Movement for the People” (Shor). Nominally she will serve as an “independent” MP in parliament. In explaining her reasoning the MP stated that the Socialists have failed to act as a credible opposition faction to PAS and blamed this on the party having no leader. A somewhat ironic response given that while Igor Dodon is in and out of house arrest… Ilan Shor hasn’t set foot in Moldova since 2019.

The Socialist Party responded with a direct accusation of bribery saying:

“Politicians change parties day by day, depending on how generous their new sponsors are. It undermines democracy and demoralizes our citizens. Those who sell themselves for money cannot be considered reliable leaders in this country,”

Author’s Note: It is funny to note that the implication of “generous new sponsors” is not that they previously had no sponsors, just that they didn’t pay as well.

MP Vlad Batrincha, leader of the Socialist faction in Parliament responded announcing that “the socialists are not for sale” and threatening legal action (an empty threat). Ilan Shor directly responded to Mr. Batrincha saying that he had recently had a conversation with the Socialist Deputy and made an offer to him as well. Shor said - the offer stands and his “doors remain open.”

Vlad Batrincha responded saying that the doors of the Socialist office are also open and suggested that Mr. Shor meet him there in Chisinau.

Igor Dodon responded to the loss of another MP with a statement also directly stating that bribery was in play saying:

“I imagined the consolidation of the opposition forces differently. Not through bribing leaders in the territories and destroying the political left.”

While the Socialists say they are not for sale… it appears some of them are. The loss of 2 MPs and 10 mayors in 2 weeks may only be the beginning. The fact of these defections to Shor not only implies bribery (and a willingness to accept it), but also that the Socialist Party itself is no longer in Moscow’s favor as it once was. This is leading party leaders to make belligerent statements… but but also to seek PAS’s help to solve the problem they are having. The Socialists are proposing a constitutional amendment preventing “political tourism” - aka MPs would not be allowed to change parties once in parliament. They justify it saying:

“This initiative provides that deputies elected on party lists cannot leave the faction and participate in political games, they must surrender their mandate. People vote for political parties, for teams, for platforms, but not for individual deputies,”

"This is a historic chance for all parties - both left and right - to establish clear rules of the game and regain voters' trust,"

They have a point, people vote for parties not individuals in Moldova. Further, buying MPs has long been a tool of corrupt oligarchs and has plagued both the Socialists as well as former pro-European parties (not PAS) in the past. At the same time, asking PAS to come and save them does not bode well for the Socialists. Nor is this amendment a very likely solution… on the other hand, if bribery could be proven it would be a very interesting case for Moldova’s upcoming Anti-Corruption Court.

Other Political News

Here’s a quick roundup of other important political stories from the last week:

• Taking the “bread” out of “bread and circuses” - This week, the law passed last summer prohibiting the selling of food below cost came into effect. The law targeted Ilan Shor’s chain of subsidized markets selling bread for 1 lei (far below cost). Shor’s markets were part of a literal “bread and circuses” strategy when he was mayor of Orhei where subsidized food was sold in poor neighborhoods and massive public concerts and amusement parks (Orhei Land) were the cornerstone of his political popularity.

• Communist Leader Vladimir Voronin reminds us all he’s still around - Mr. Voronin released a scathing public letter to French President Macron criticizing France’s support for Moldova’s government and claiming that the ongoing Shor Protests have nothing to do with Russia. Voronin took the opportunity to take jabs at the French president and ongoing strikes in France saying:

  “Moldovan tourists visiting Paris lately say that it doesn't look like a city of love at all. They talk about violent mass protests, heaps of garbage on the streets, about thousands and thousands of rats that scurry around the city. So maybe it's better for you to take care of the Parisian rats than to support the Moldovan ones?”

• The Constitutional Court CC will examine the legality of the Shor Party - At the request of the government, the CC will examine whether the Shor Party is a legal political entity between May 10 and May 17. The government stated:

  "through all the activities so far, the "Sor" party acted in contradiction with the principles of the rule of law and endangers the sovereignty and independence of the Republic of Moldova".

• Speculation about the Chisinau Mayor’s race heat’s up - In an interview this week former PM Natalia Gavrilita explained that she remains very active within PAS, especially in recruiting candidates for local elections and encouraging more women to enter politics. When asked if she would be the PAS candidate for the Chisinau Mayor’s race, the former PM noted that PAS is considering multiple candidates but that she is among them. Former President Igor Dodon also stated that he is a potential candidate for the Socialist Party in an interview this week. It seems a unique aspect of Moldova’s political culture that the idea of a former Prime Minister and a former President competing in a mayoral election isn’t that unusual. In any case, of all the local elections in 2023, the Chisinau mayoral race in late October will likely be the most consequential and foreshadow political strength in future national elections most clearly.

Economics and Infrastructure

Here is a quick roundup of the key economic and infrastructure news in Moldova this week:

• Social Housing and Energy Efficiency - The Development Bank of the Council of Europe will loan MD 20 million euros for the construction of 455 units of social housing which will house around 1600 people in 12 localities around Moldova. They will provide an additional 7 million euros in grants for green investments and energy efficiency measures for state buildings. From this buildings will be renovated for energy efficiency including, 4 student dorms and 16 new elderly care homes will be built in localities around Moldova.

• Rapid Road Construction - The government is rapidly renovating a stretch of road between Chisinau and the village of Bulboaca where the winery Castel Mimi is located. Reporting suggests that Castel Mimi will be hosting part of the summit of the European Political Community in June and that the rapid road construction is related to this fact. It seems Moldova want’s to put the best foot forward for the historic summit.

• MoldovaGaz making loan repayments - MoldovaGaz has repaid 600 million lei in loans to Energocom and claims it will finish repaying the loan in April. This loan was imposed (against the will of MoldovaGaz) by parliament during the energy crisis to keep the company solvent and gas flowing. The loan at 21.5% interest was secured by MoldovaGaz infrastructure. It seems the GazProm subsidiary is going to be able to pay the loan off without losing their transit infrastructure. If so, or if not, this is likely to be a model of a government bailout that redounds to the gain of taxpayers.

• Central Heating in Chisinau ended on Monday - Winter is over… at least according to Termoelectrica. The state company decided to discontinue central heating because of warm weather and the costs it puts on users (who can’t turn it off on their own). After a long winter of energy worries it seems that spring has sprung!

• Moldova owns the Chisinau Airport again - The state has completed the process of taking control of the airport and related handling companies from Avia Invest (presumed to be owned by Ilan Shor). Speaking about the news that the government finalized the process of taking back control, President Sandu said:

“The return of the Chisinau International Airport to state administration is the result of the fight against corruption. Important proof that something can be done when everyone respects the law, including in the judiciary. This should inspire us. We must continue to move forward to restore justice and punish the perpetrators of abuse and corruption,” 

... and that is a nice high note to end this week’s Roundup on!