Weekly Roundup
May 29 - June 4
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Election Roundup
As the election campaign continues its march to July 11th, fear tactics, legal cases and wacky hijinks dominated the news of the week.
PACE Campaign Launch - Dead on Arrival?
PACE is a minor party that might not even merit a mention except for the insane way in which they launched their campaign. With the party gathered in a rural village setting by an abandoned house, party leader Gheorghe Cavcaliuc addressed the group as party members carried a coffin into the space. Once set down, a young woman popped out of the coffin and started reading poems. Mr. Cavcaliuc then made a statement comparing this situation to politics in Moldova and forcefully declaring that in his party there “are no bandits or drug addicts.” Though clearly there are lunatics.
Link to the whole video on facebook
Shor Demands to be Exempt from Arrest and Prosecution to Run for Parliament
Iian Shor, current member of Parliament and wanted criminal is presumed to be hiding in Israel where he is a dual citizen. This week it was discovered that Shor has been appealing to the Central Election Commission (CEC) to be allowed to return to Moldova with immunity during the election period. As absurd as this sounds, it has happened before, with Shor. During Plahotnuic’s reign, an obscure law that had already been ruled unconstitutional was used to let Shor out of jail so he could campaign. This time, Shor found no such willing accomplices in the CEC and he was denied. His campaign did not say how he would be campaigning but it is assumed he will be appearing online only.
Protests and “Provocations” follow President Sandu
President Sandu visited Edinet this week and was promptly greeted by an angry group of protestors that the mayor later said were bussed in and organized to oppose her. Though it is unclear by whom. The President responded by supporting their right to protest. Following this, Sandu visited Causeni and shortly after she left someone threw a bag of horse dung at the Socialist’s office in town. The local Socialist party leader didn’t blame President Sandu’s supporters directly, but did note that it happened right after she left. PAS responded by calling this a “provocation” implying that the Socialists threw dung at their own office in order to blame PAS. While this may be true (and may not be) it is important to realize that “provocation” is a term of art in former Soviet political systems whereby any action can be blamed on any party even if it seems illogical by saying it was meant to “provoke” some other reaction. So the mystery of the horse poop may never be solved.
A Historical Memory
While on the topic of poop. It is worth recalling a time in 2015 where a van filled with 3.5 tons of excrement rammed through the front door of the then powerful PLDM Party office. The van calmly reversed, turned around, and pointed it’s hose through the door to unload all 3.5 tons of cargo. Mr. Usati (also running in this election) published the pictures on his facebook mere moments after the deed was done leading almost everyone to speculate this was his action. His response? This is nothing but a “provocation!” The PLDM party did this to themselves!
So while we can clearly see the hijinks and tricks of this campaign are nothing new… we can also see they could be worse.
Dodon’s Apocalyptic Vision Continues
Mr. Dodon continued his sequence of media appearances that seem carefully crafted to terrify everyone. In an interview this week he claimed that if the Pro-EU parties win, “social programs will be suspended, exports will collapse, persecution of businesspeople will start, and no one will fight with corruption but they will persecute political opponents.” He went on to say that Moldova will become a “totalitarian regime” and this will all lead to the people rising up spontaneously and taking to the streets to protest or overturn a Socialist loss. While these interviews continue to be very dark, it is fair to say that “exports will collapse” isn’t quite able to top Voronin’s statements about NATO invading with “dark skinned children.” It is going to be very interesting to see if the Communist Socialist Coalition will continue with the doom and gloom all through the campaign or if they will shift message a bit to some clearer articulation of why people should vote “for” them and not simply “against” President Sandu.
Promolex Says no One is Playing By the Rules
Promolex is an NGO dedicated to election integrity and supporting democracy in Moldova. They are among the best and most impartial election observers in each election and they come out with various reports throughout the race as to the state of play. Their initial report was pretty bad for everyone. Here’s a short roundup of violations:
All Parties Started Campaigning Early - this means that before the official start of election season billboards were going up and events were starting.
President Sandu is not being a-political - The President is bound to be a-political and can’t support a party. While technically, President Sandu is not vocally supporting her former PAS party it isn’t fooling anyone. Her regional visits (listed above in the poop story) look a lot like campaign stops. And honestly, in this newsletter I don’t bother trying to draw a distinction. President Sandu comes from PAS and it is her party in a de facto sense. Technically this is against the rules and Promolex calls balls and strikes.
The Socialists are using administrative resources - The socialists are leveraging the fact that the interim government was appointed by them to use government resources and funds for the campaign. Specifics were not shared but accusations of printing materials are common.
Communists and Usatti are bribing voters - Exact details were not provided.
So, with a bit more than a month to go in the campaign things are off to quite a start. But it’s important to realize that poop stories always break through the news coverage. The campaign will be won or lost by the thousands of volunteers knocking on doors and supporting their cause all around the country. This doesn’t get the coverage but this is where the real campaign is happening right now. At a macro level, we should start seeing official party platforms in the next few weeks so stay tuned for some Deep Dives into what the parties plan to do and promise to voters.
COVID-19 Updates
COVID numbers continue to improve with a 7 day average of just 61 cases and 4 deaths. As you can see on the charts this is a major reduction from the peak of the wave just a few months ago. Critically, the test positivity rate is only around 1% meaning that of all tests being conducted only 1% are positive. This is another incredibly positive forward looking indicator.
The blue line is the daily numbers while the red line is the 7 day moving average.
Note: In some recent Weekly Roundups there have been errors in the COVID charts due to a misconfigured x-axis. Sorry if the charts seemed misleading and did not fully show the downward trend the last 2 weeks.
State of Vaccinations
As of this week, around 10% of the population has had at least 1 shot and Moldova is averaging almost 9000 doses a day in new vaccinations. Much of this success has been due to the highly popular “vaccine marathons.” In Chisinau, 5,500 people were vaccinated last weekend at the Palace of the Republic in another multi day marathon that showed people’s eagerness to get the Pfizer vaccine in particular. Marathons will be held this weekend in Edinet and Briceni as the authorities try to take this innovative approach outside the capital.
In addition to these positive numbers, it’s important to remember that Moldovan’s of dual citizenship who got vaccinated in Romania are not counted in the official statistics. For the first time Romania announced just how many dual citizens there are, explaining that 642,149 Moldovans also hold a Romanian passport. This means that roughly 25% of the population is eligible to get vaccinated in Romania but we have no idea how many did. In any case the actual vaccination rate surely exceeds the official 10%.
Meanwhile, vaccine supply continues to exceed demand and another 45,000 doses of AstraZeneca are due to arrive in the next week from the COVAX program. Mr. Dodon also announced today an unspecified number of Sputnik doses that would be donated to Moldova and also that “we” have chosen to buy 1,000,000 Sputnik doses for delivery in July. Since Mr. Dodon is a private citizen it is not clear who the “we” is in his statement or if he is speaking on behalf of any government agency.
Transnistria released their vaccine numbers and the results are staggering. Of the 35,000 people vaccinated, 29,3000 chose Sputnik, 4,100 chose AstraZeneca, and 528 people chose Pfizer. It’s amazing to see the tangible effects of the messaging and communications campaigns in Russian media that consistently malign “western vaccines” and talk up Sputnic V.
Vaccine Certificates
Moldova is continuing to conduct bi-lateral diplomacy on acceptance of vaccine certificates with Hungary announcing it would recognize certificates issued with Moldova. So far, Hungary and Ukraine have both agreed to recognize Moldovan certificates. Meanwhile, the ministry of health is working to make sure the certificates issued in Moldova comply with EU norms in the hope that the block overall will also recognize Moldova’s certificates soon.
Opening Up
Bit by bit things are starting to open up in Chisinau. As of this week, restaurants may resume normal pre-pandemic working hours as long as they maintain 50% capacity and social distancing rules. Romania and Hungary are both putting Moldova on the list of “green zone” countries and admitting travelers with vaccinations or COVID tests. And it is no longer required to wear masks outside in Chisinau.
More troublinging, Russian Rapper Morgenstern played a concert near Chisinau where over 6000 people attended with no social distancing or masking. In response to questions from journalists as to how this can possibly be allowed, the Police noted that it was on private property and so not really their problem. The mayor’s office had a similar response. Journalists reminded the authorities how they have been regulating, and raiding restaurants and nightclubs for over a year. In response to these questions the police seemed to grudgingly suggest they may investigate.
So the trajectory of cases and reopening is all positive. But this conert, and general desire of people to leave 2020 behind shows us that lack of caution and care may still be an issue down the road.
Economic News
Online Shipping from China - Free Again!
Ali Express has announced a deal with the Moldova post to resume shipping directly to Moldova for free or cheap fees. Previously it was possible to buy a keychain or other small trinket and get it delivered for free. Due to failed negotiations with the post these fees jumped to more than $40 / package in many cases at the beginning of 2020. Reverting to free shipping is going to continue to support the rise of AliExpress as a potential e-commerce giant in Moldova.
Major Support Package from the EU Announced
The EU has announced a macrofinancial recovery package for Moldova in excess of 600 million euros over 3 years. Spending will be targeted at supporting public finance, economic management, competitive economy, trade, small and medium enterprises, infrastructure, education, employment in the labor market, and reform in the rule of law and justice. President Sandu announced the deal this week and has made it clear that support from the EU is something that she and a future PAS government will be able to bring home to Moldova.
Crime and Corruption
Police Raids at the Railroad
Police and the security services conducted raids of the National Railroad’s offices and the homes of former management of the state run enterprise. Unconfirmed reports from a member of Parliament say that 240,000 euro in cash was seized in searches of the home of a former manager of the railroad. As we’ve discussed many times on Moldova Matters, the state of the National Railroad is extremely dire. Employees have not been paid in months and theft of diesel and cash from the business’s accounts are threatening the very existence of the rail system. The fact that this is due to mismanagement and corruption is well known and reported. It is interesting to see that something might actually be done about it soon.
Knife Attack in Balti
We don’t usually cover local news at Moldova Matters, but this story from Balti was so extraordinary that it stood out. In Balti this week a mentally disturbed man threw himself in front of a truck in an attempt to get run over. The truck driver stopped in time and passersby tried to help the man thinking it was an accident. The man then drew a knife and tried to attack people in the vicinity. A witness managed to take the man's knife from him but he then drew another one and continued threatening people. When the police arrived, the man ran and then attacked them. The officers fired a warning shot in the air but the man then managed to stab an officer. Following this the officers shot him in the leg and when he fell to the ground he tried to cut his own throat. The officers disarmed him and took him into custody. No one was seriously injured. This story is of a dangerous and tragic encounter. But the contrast with police violence in the United States is so stark it caused me to dwell on it for some time. The actions of these officers saved lives including the man who was threatening them. There are many faults with the Moldovan police, but in situations like these they have a long history of acting carefully and heroically in the interest of the public good.
Moldova Loses a Case at the European Court for Human Rights ECHR
President Sandu announced that Moldova lost a case at the ECHR and must pay 2 million euros in damages. The facts of the case are not yet public, but the core fact is that a Moldovan Judge acted illegally and the appeal to the European Court proved criminal action on the part of this judge. These cases are unfortunately common in Moldova where the nation must pay for criminal actions by its judicial officers. Nowhere can we more clearly see that corruption is a national security threat to Moldova.
Ending on a High Note!
This week marked “Last Bell” or graduation day for students across Moldova. For the first time in months students were able to gather, in small numbers, to celebrate and be with their teachers and classmates. Having an in-person graduation is a wonderful signal of things beginning to return to some semblance of normal as we put the long days of 2020 behind us.