Weekly Roundup
January 30 - February 5th
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Weekly Roundup and other content sent right to your email! And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!
Regional Tensions - Crisis in Ukraine
The Kremlin’s continued troop buildup in western Russia, Belarus and occupied Crimea is believed to be entering a final stage in the next week, or weeks, with close to 100 battalion tactical groups deployed with equipment, logistics and blood plasma stockpiles on hand. As the tension has slowly ratcheted up over the past months we have seen very little reaction from the Moldovan government to this situation. This week, we still have no official statements of policy or explanations of planning that may or may not be taking place in Moldova. What we do have for the first time is a lot of commentary from prominent members of Moldovan society.
Former Prime Minister Ion Sturza spoke harshly against Prime Minister Gavrilita’s decision last week to increase military spending. He said: "With all due respect to the Moldovan military, small and poorly equipped, but with good intentions, they are not a national security solution for Moldovans." He noted that Moldova has been a small neutral country for centuries and this fact did little to stop the Turks, Russians, Germans or Soviets. Mr. Sturza says that Moldova’s real security lies “in the shadow of it’s older brother” (Romania) and said that the government needs to be taking into account this reality.
Former member of Parliament and prominent Unionist politician Octavian Ticu laid out what he thought would happen if Russian troops attack Moldova. "Some will take refuge in Romania, others will meet the Russians with bread and salt, this is our identity." Bread and salt is a traditional welcome in Moldova. Another former MP Chiril Motpan said that “We are in a difficult and worrying situation. In 1992, there were about a million young people in the country [could take up] weapons, today young people are abroad. God forbid from the conflict, today there is no one to take up arms.” Mr. Motpan is referring to the Transnistrian war where Moldovan volunteers took up arms and used their almost ubiquitous experience as former conscripts in the Soviet armed forces during the war. Now, young people are abroad and the state of training and readiness in the army reserve is by all accounts pretty terrible.
The Supreme Security Council Meets… about Inflation
President Sandu called a meeting of the Supreme Security Council this week to discuss economic uncertainty and mechanisms to stabilize prices. She also appointed a new advisor on defense and national security issues, former Minister of the Interior Dorin Recean. It was noted across social media that the looming invasion of a neighboring country did not make it on the agenda of the Supreme Security Council.
A particularly harsh critique came from Dumitru Minzarari who is an expert in international security. He wrote the first real deep dive into Moldova’s security situation in English this week for the Jamestown Foundation. The title, "Moldovan Government Lacks Strategy to Deal With Effects of Russia-Triggered Security Crisis," pretty much sums up the thesis of the piece which goes on to directly criticize President Sandu for calling the Supreme Security Council meeting on the topic of energy not national security. Mr. Minzarari noted that while the increase in Military spending is a fine idea the direction of the spending was kept extremely vague in the announcements. He further notes that currently Moldova spends only 0.3% of GDP on national defense - the lowest in Europe. The point being that any increase in spending right now is only adding fractions of a percent on an already very small number.
Minzarari posits that the strategy the government is pursuing is effectively "don't talk about Moscow and plan behind the scenes." The idea being that no excuse is given to the Kremlin to cut off gas or take other measures while at the same time quietly preparing for the worst. The problem with this approach that he says, is twofold. On one hand, Russian intelligence is far better than Moldovan counter-intelligence. So planning in silence doesn’t really keep things from them. Secondly, no effort is being made to prepare the public for the possibility of a real regional crisis. Concrete plans and statements might reassure the public which will sooner or later wake up to the fact that a serious crisis is happening right next door.
Gas and Energy Crisis Updates
This week the government made a major announcement indicating that they were going to expand gas subsidies that are already in place for individuals to cover businesses as well. In their plan businesses will also get subsidized prices for the first 500 cubic meters of gas that they consume. This accounts for the full consumption of more than ½ business customers and is likely to have a major positive impact on small business across Moldova. The changes are being made retroactively from January 1 and will be reflected in the gas bills for that month.
Meanwhile, Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban is coming out as the government’s largest critic on the issue of gas prices. The mayor announced this week that he plans to sue the government and National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) over the increase in prices due to the new costs’ impact on the city’s budget. It is not clear if the mayor wants government subsidies for the city, or if he is simply making a political show by demanding that the government somehow reverse the reality of gas prices and wave a magic wand to make everything cheaper. Either way, the lawsuits are unlikely to go anywhere and simply secured Mayor Ceban a few more lines of ink this week in publications across Moldova.
Political Updates
This week in Moldova there were two sensational stories that drove headlines and got people from across society talking on social media. The first, a bizarre police raid / hostage situation / massive indictment of the corruption and irresponsibility of many members of the justice system, was covered in the preview to this weekly roundup found at this link (in case you missed it yesterday).
The second story, is an update in the case of the young soldier Marin Pavelescu who deserted the army due to harassment and threats he was getting when his superiors discovered he is gay. Marin’s lawyers and supporters in the GenderDoc-M LGBTQ rights organization have been working through the courts and relevant state agencies to prove this discrimination and clear him of criminal responsibility for deserting his unit. This week there was a hearing at the "Council for the Prevention and Elimination of Discrimination and Ensuring Equality" on the case. During these hearings, the lawyers for the military behaved combatively and refused to accept that he was discriminated against because they refuse to accept that he is gay. Speaking for the military, the lawyer said that Marin is not officially gay and that quote ""to prove that you are gay you have to present a medical certificate or pictures [of your] intimate life." Effectively, in order to prove he is gay the defendant needs to either present a formal document issued by the state (something that does not exist), or turn over photos or video of himself engaged in homosexual activity. This entire hearing was recorded and released publicly on video by Marin Pavelescu and his lawyers.
As one might imagine, the absurdity of this request lit a fire in civil society and caused a major outcry on social media about the cruel disregard for the dignity of the former soldier. Further, the idea that you cannot have an identity unless it is confirmed by state issued documents caused many to note the incredibly Soviet worldview present in the armed forces structure.
Responding to the outcry, Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi condemned the actions of his ministry’s prosecutors and called a meeting of all garrison commanders in Moldova. They are preparing a mandatory anti-discrimination training for the armed forces and have opened an internal investigation against the lawyer who demanded the sex tapes.
Editorial Note
As the lead author at Moldova Matters I would like to add my condemnation and outrage to that which has been echoed across society at how the military has behaved throughout this evolving story. But more than that I would like to note just how brave Marin Pavelescu has been in standing up to them. He has faced discrimination in society and in looking for work in addition to the systemic descrimination from the military. His family receives threats and has disowned their son. Thanks to amazing organizations like GenerDoc-M (link to their page) Marin has been able to effectively fight back and make his case for dignity and rights. It is also worth noting that the way they are doing this is extremely savvy. As a small business owner I also know that when you engage with the state authorities, in settings that they control and areas they believe they are beyond scrutiny, the situation can often devolve into the kind of kafkaesque nightmare on display here. The only way to effectively fight back is often by going public and shining a light on the real mechanisms of justice and state control in a country badly in need of reform. Bravo to Marin and the GenderDoc-M team for the courage and capability they have shown in this fight. Moldova needs many more people willing to fight this hard for reform and for the dignity of each person.
Rapid Fire Roundup
In our new Rapid Fire Roundup section we’ll note some of the smaller but important stories of the week in a quick format.
The Socialist Party elected Vlad Batrîncea as their new Executive Secretary. This position is effectively the new party leader in their new PolitBureau-esq structure. Igor Dodon remains Honorary Chairmen of the party.
Prime Minister Gavrilita and Minister of Economy Sergiu Gaibu announced that the Consumer Protection and Market Surveillance Agency will be reformed and its leadership fired. This organization is still headed by appointees of the Plahotniuc period and is well known among business owners as a major source of corrupt extortion schemes against companies. Currently 4 employees have already been detained on suspicion of corruption and extortion. Unfortunately, the government is unable to fire and replace the director of the agency because he has taken parental leave and regulations do not allow firing or evaluations to occur during this period.
A major poll conducted in Romania sought to ascertain the opinion of the population on a hypothetical future union between the country and Moldova. In the survey, 74.5% of Romanians supported Union with only 21.1% opposing it. Meanwhile, the latest polls in Moldova show around 35% support for Union with 47.2% opposed.
The Central Election Commission CEC has agreed to add a new option for voters in future elections - “Against all Candidates.” Voters will have an option of voting against everyone and if this option wins a plurality in any election the election will be declared invalid and re-run. Currently, many Moldovan’s make a protest vote such as this by intentionally destroying their ballot or marking it in such a way that it cannot be counted. People do this not only as a protest but also to make sure that their blank ballot cannot be used in any illegal ballot-stuffing schemes simply because they chose not to vote and left it blank. By formalizing this option the CEC has made it easier for citizens to cast a protest vote and express their dissatisfaction without destroying the ballot or simply staying home.
COVID-19 Update
This week the Omicron driven COVID wave continues to show a rise in cases and deaths with a 7 day average of 4503 cases / day and 19 deaths. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Gavrilita announced this week that she has tested positive and will be working from home.
As a side note you might notice how on one day the daily deaths drop down to zero. This is an error in the government’s official data portal which essentially recorded 171 resurrections one day followed by all the resurrected dying again the next - we zeroed this out in order to omit the error from the calculation. This is not the first time that major “resurrection” events have been recorded in the official numbers and previous errors have remained uncorrected for months or years.
Why Aren’t Moldovan’s Getting Vaccinated?
A new survey from the Center for Scientific Research in Psychology tries to shed some light on the reasons driving Moldova’s abysmally low vaccination rate which continues to hover at around 30%. Vaccines have been universally available and free of charge since last summer and citizens even have a choice between 5 different vaccines. Still, people aren’t getting the jab.
Survey results show the following primary reasons for this among the public.
26.9% - Say that the vaccine has not been sufficiently tested
22.1% - Will not get vaccinated out of principle
11.8% - Are afraid of unknown substances in their body
8.9% - Are confident that they are healthy
7.8% - Say that the virus exists but vaccination is not necessary
7.3% - Say that the virus does not exist
It’s striking that few previous surveys have addressed this question and there is little evidence the government is collecting their own data to try and target public health campaigns. Hopefully a more data driven approach to persuading the public is used in the future.
Economic News
In some rare good news, Moldova has posted a record harvest in 2021 with the largest agricultural production in 30 years. This was driven by wheat, corn, sunflower and vegetables. Overall production also exceeds Soviet era record harvests which traditionally were larger than the production output that Moldova has managed as an independent country. This harvest marks the continuation of an upwards trend in production.
Unfortunately, inflation is still taking a toll. This week it was announced that wine prices are expected to rise 10-15% in the next 3 months with higher end wines hardest hit by the increases. Global inflationary trends are causing lots of Moldovan staples as well as cash crops to increase in price implying a rocky year ahead for Moldovan consumers.
Crime and Corruption
This week, Lawyer Georgy Avornik resigned from his position on the Superior Council of Prosecutors after being appointed only last week by the Academy of Sciences. His appointment cause major outrage including expressions of “disappointment” from President Sandu because Mr. Avornik was formerly Mr. Plahotnuic’s lawyer. His resignation cited personal reasons and implied that the scrutiny on his family and public blowback was too much for him to handle.
Update on Judge Avasiloaie
Previously in Moldova Matters we have written about the case of Judge Avasiloaie and her web of illegal properties and assets that were uncovered by investigative journalists from ZdG. Moldova’s National Integrity Agency ANI has begun actions to seize 1.3 million lei in unjustified assets and criminal proceedings are in the works. Due to court delays the case was rescheduled from November until sometime in February. What is shocking however is that while criminal proceedings are underway and the ANI is in court to seize Judge Avasiloaie unjustified property… the judge is still on the bench. She has not been suspended and is even presiding over 30 other cases brought by ANI against other suspects. Effectively, lawyers who are prosecuting Judge Avasiloaie one day are in her court the next prosecuting someone else. The absurdity of this situation highlights the inability of the justice system to bring one of its own to justice.
Major Case Against Former MPs
This week, prosecutors conducted searches at the properties of 13 former Members of Parliament from the Communist Party. Back in 2015, 14 MPs from the Communist Party defected to form a new party called "Social Democratic Platform." This group actively supported Plahotnuic’s Democratic Party PDM and most of the group soon officially joined PDM with 2 deputies opting to join the Shor Party. The investigations allege that large bribes were given by Mr. Plahotniuc to buy these MPs and stated that during searches it was uncovered that many MPs had expenses vastly exceeding their official incomes. This case was officially opened when Plahotnuic fled the country in 2019 under the Maia Sandu government, but was then closed when the government collapsed at the end of the year. Just last month the case was reopened and prosecutors have moved quickly to arrest 5 of the searched MPs and are bringing charges. In one case, former Communist MP turned PDM MP Sergiu Sirbu offered another MP 200,000 euros to change his party.
In a rare show of solidarity with the ruling government Communist Party Leader Vladimir Voronin welcomed the investigations and noted that he spoke publicly at the time about the bribery being used to steal his party members. At the time, 14 MPs represented ⅔ of the Communist Party parliamentary composition.
Ending on a High Note!
Moldova picks its Eurovision competitor!! This week, Teleradio Moldova selected the rock band Zdob și Zdub to represent the country at the 2022 Eurovision competition. Zdob și Zdub and the Advachov brothers collaborated on the new song Trenulețul which sings about the train from Chisinau to Bucharest. Zdob și Zdub represented Moldova in 2005 at the country’s first Eurovision taking 6th place and again in 2011 taking 12th place.
The selection though is not without controversy. Initial public reaction was surprise with a very happy response from Moldovans sympathetic to the idea of Union with Romania. The song has the following lyrics which are being interpreted as a soft political endorsement of this idea:
“Old country, new country
It's like one, it's like two
Separately, together
It's like two, it's one”
Shortly after the announcement that the song was picked however, the band announced that the lyrics were being replaced with the following for the competition:
“The train sees when it runs
How small the world is
And it doesn't look big anymore
Because it has no borders”
This is being done out of caution because the European Broadcasting Union EBU which manages the competition forbids political songs and has kicked out acts in the past for violating the ban. So while most people welcome the popular band Zdob și Zdub as the national champion, they have managed to pretty much offend everyone this week. First, the Unionists were thrilled and everyone else a bit upset. Now, the Unionists are angry that they rewrote the lyrics.
Hopefully the controversy will pass and Moldova will have a good year at Eurovision - Go Zdob și Zdub!!
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