Weekly Roundup
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Weekly Roundup and other content sent right to your email! And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!
Political Crisis - Denouement or Intermission?
This week has been relatively quiet with the various actors in the ongoing political crisis plotting their next moves. As we discussed in the last Weekly Roundup, the Constitutional Court’s ruling that the President must dissolve Parliament indicates that elections are coming. But President Sandu has yet to set a date for elections and the question of the State of Emergency still hangs over the issue. The Constitutional Court will consider the legality of the State of Emergency on April 28th, meanwhile, it seems Mr. Dodon has other plans.
Mr. Dodon’s Flip Flopping
Immediately after the Constitutional Court ruling for the President and triggering elections Mr. Dodon’s Socialists threatened not to acknowledge the Constitutional Court’s ruling. They proposed that Parliament would pass a resolution stating that the Constitutional Court was “captured” by President Sandu and therefore they could ignore it. The implication of this would be the creation of a Government against the rulings of the Constitutional Court and the will of the President. Something that would deepen the crisis considerably.
Within a short time though Mr. Dodon threw that out for a new plan whereby Parliament would vote to demand the resignation of 3 Judges in the court who voted for elections. PSRM plans to make this symbolic vote on Friday April 23rd. It is notable that one of the judges they claim is trying to capture the state has already had serious threats and been provided with state protection.
Next, came new ideas, where Mr. Dodon and PSRM demanded that President Sandu resign so they could have immediate Presidential Elections. They were not at all bothered by the logical contradiction in demanding immediate Presidential Elections while demanding no such Parliamentary elections on the grounds that the health crisis “did not allow elections to be safe.” In the demand that President Sandu resign, Mr. Dodon pulled out all the stops, accusing her of becoming a new Plahotnuic, plotting a coup, and being a kidnapper (referring to the case of the Ukrainian Judge which President Sandu has no proven or credible link to at all).
Finally, to wrap up the week, and a monster brainstorming session of possible political responses, Mr. Dodon changed plans again and said that Parliament (which he is not a member of) will allow elections only in September when certain conditions are met. In the meantime, they would not provide funding for elections and would negotiate with the President in July - implying that the State of Emergency would carry on into summer. Additionally, PSRM will demand
As a bit of personal analysis, I have to say that it is really shocking to watch one party flail about so rapidly looking for a way, any way, not to face the voters. The willingness to self contradict day to day is incredible and does not show a realization that when elections do come there will be a price to pay for it.
Once again, this crisis is left plodding along and we will check in next week to see new developments.
Other Political News - President Sandu Shops for Herself?
In the least important but most highly covered bit of news this week, President Sandu was photographed shopping in a grocery store wearing jeans and sneakers and apparently without security. This sparked massive interest on social media with her supporters comparing her to Merkel in Germany and other leaders known to be down to earth. Opponents of the President took the chance to wildly speculate about which other shoppers or store employees might be secret agents in the Presidential detail who were inserted to stage this fantastical and impossible scenario. This in turn led to people posting about how they were in the picture and were not in fact secret agents. We’ve already talked more about this than it deserves but given the traction the story got this week it needed to be mentioned.
President Sandu’s Foriegn Tour de Force
In Real Political news, President Sandu has been on a whirlwind of meetings with European Partners starting in Strasbourg with various meetings and an address to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. In her address, the President laid out many of Moldova’s challenges and especially highlighted Corruption and Illicit Financial Flows as issues that exist in Moldova, but threaten regional security. She said that “Corruption is a collective security issue” and “Moldova needs help.” This framing of Corruption not as a domestic Moldovan problem but as a regional security threat is very much in line with newer thinking both in the US and the EU recognizing how quickly one nation’s corruption can threaten others. This idea, often called “Corruption is the new Communism” is making western nations look much closer at the Eastern Partnership countries and President Sandu clearly addressed these concerns in her speech.
In addition to Strasbourg, President Sandu traveled to Bucharest to meet with the Romanian President and Prime Minister and discuss pandemic related support. This especially focused on vaccines where Romania continues to be an indispensable partner for Moldova. Finally, President Sandu talked on the phone with the President of Poland about pandemic support and bilateral relations.
This was quite a week for the President and highlights all the critical things she does while not shopping for tomatoes in sneakers.
Elections - What do the Polls Say?
Polling in Moldova is sporadic and often dubious in nature. This means that polls with strong track records get a lot of attention when they come out. And the International Republican Institute (IRI) Public Opinion Survey (links to results in English), which just dropped this week, is generally considered to be the best in the business. While the poll has lots of useful information, here are some topline results:
Parliamentary Horse Race - where does it stand?
The polls results show that, if the election were held now, 5 parties would enter parliament. President Sandu’s PAS - 48 seats, Mr Dodon’s PSRM - 28 seats, Our Party - 9 seats. Șor Party - 8 seats, DA Platform - 8 seats. In the 101 seat body this shows that the PAS Party stands a real chance of getting an outright majority and a very high probability of being able to form a government with allies. Given the disastrous nature of these numbers for almost every party other than PAS currently in Parliament you can see why Mr. Dodon and Parliament are fighting so hard against elections.
Who do the Voters Trust Most?
Even more damaging to Mr. Dodon, President Sandu’s trust rating has doubled in the last 8 months to 41% while Mr. Dodon has lost a few points to second place at 19%. This is a serious indictment of the manner in which Mr. Dodon has been attempting to avoid elections and smear President Sandu in recent months. Apparently, not only have these smears not worked but she has gotten wildly more popular.
COVID-19 Is the Wave Over?
It seems that the massive wave of infection and death that has afflicted Moldova these past months may be coming to a close. The 7 day running average of new cases has fallen to 547 / day and the death rate to 25 / day. To get a picture on how this looks compared to past months here are 2 charts from the spreadsheet I use to keep track of the numbers for these articles.
Blue lines represent daily cases / deaths while red lines show the 7 day running average.
In other good indicators, Chisinau has demobilized 2 more front line hospitals and is preparing to demobilize more if cases continue to fall for a 4th straight week. The combination of positive trend lines and additional slack in the healthcare system is a very welcome development.
In response, the Interim Government has lifted the 11 pm curfew and opened theaters. Restaurants remain closed after 8 pm which has drawn serious anger from the National Restaurant Association which is demanding either to be allowed to work, or or get government support.
But the death rate remains high. Member of Parliament Ludmila Guzun representing Ungheni passed away from COVID this week as did the mother of former Chisinau Mayor Dorin Chirtoaca. While cases of famous people make the news we should remember that families all around Moldova are grieving and that this wave represented an incredible amount of death for such a small nation.
Vaccines - Where’s my Jab?
COVAX will be delivering 48,000 doses of the AsteraZenica vaccines later this month and Romania will be adding an additional 132,000 doses as well. Additionally, the Interim Government’s tender to buy the Chinese SinoVac vaccine is going forward but has been reduced from 400,000 to 100,000 doses. These 100,000 doses are expected by the end of April.
The Interim Government is moving quickly to purchase more vaccines as they become available on the market. The key decision in this regard was to notify COVAX this week how many doses they wanted to buy. The Interim Government decided to option 2 million doses which will be delivered as supply becomes available. Additionally, they are in talks with Moderna about purchasing 1.5 million doses (likely for delivery in 2022) and Russia for 700,000 Sputnik V doses.
In less heartening news, Moldova’s heavily Russian speaking autonomous region of Gagauzia has returned to Chisinau it’s AstraZeneca doses saying that most doctors didn’t want them. The logic that they should be used rather than expire waiting for someone to show up is strong, but it is incredibly disheartening to see an entire region waiting on the Russian vaccine only. Russian news continues to daemonize all western vaccines while Russia keeps promising doses… and not delivering.
What about Vaccines at Private Clinics?
While there is no concrete news on this front, the Interim Government has passed regulations ensuring that employers will get a tax break for paying to vaccinate their staff. While we don’t know when paid vaccines might become available the authorities are laying the groundwork aggressively apparently expecting this will happen soon.
Regional Tensions
While tensions in the broader region between Ukraine and Russia are largely out of the scope of this Newsletter, they are shaping Moldovan politics as well. The recent massing of Russian troops along the Ukrainian borders, as well as their expected drawdown, have made national security a major topic this week.
One major scandal involved the two Russian GRU agents who are suspected of blowing up a Czech ammunition depot in 2014 as part of the covert war to isolate Ukraine and deprive them of arms. The sudden realization that the Czech Republic has been in a state of quasi-war with Russia for years is unsettling in the region and causing all actors to consider their security implications. Meanwhile, the agents, famous for touring the Cathedral in Salisbury while using nerve agents to attempt to kill Kremlin Critics (link in English), are making waves in Moldova. One of these agents used a Moldovan passport while conducting the attack in the Czech Republic which led to a minor scandal this week. After much finger pointing the authorities announced the passport was real but issued to another person and altered with a different name and picture by the GRU.
Until Russia fully stands down the 140,000 troops massing along the Ukrainian border, security issues have the potential to be a major conversation in domestic politics in Moldova.
Corruption Update
The National Anti Corruption Center (CNA) had a big week with two high profile cases and arrests. The first involved a tax inspector who attempted to extort 50,000 lei from a businessman. This businessman went to the CNA and was wearing a wire for his next meeting with the tax inspector. The second case was about bribes paid by farmers to the veterinary service in the Central Market in order to look the other way when selling *very* expired meat. These bribes were caught on video and those responsible were arrested. These cases are interesting because in one, you see an innocent businessman who is being extorted, seeking, and receiving, help from the CNA. In the second, corrupt businesses and corrupt officials are rounded up together. Cases like these are often more performative than substantial, but both of this week’s cases look very promising and show a real interest in cleaning up lower level corruption.
Ending on a High Note
For this week’s high note we have 2 items! Firstly, an amazing time lapse video from “Big Little World” showing various parts of Moldova and highlighting the incredible beauty of the country. This video doesn’t only show the natural beauty but timelapses of people going about their lives and enjoying the scenery and countryside. It’s incredibly beautiful and very much worth a watch.
EU Easter Partnership Common Mobile Roaming Area
On a more technical high note, the EU and Easter Partnership countries have announced a common mobile roaming area between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine that is projected to reduce roaming costs by 87% by 2026. The system will go into effect in 2022 and phase in over 4 years until it is fully implemented. This will make travel more seamless and save people money as well. Efforts like this to better integrate the region are great news and represent a real investment in a common future.
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