Weekly Roundup

July 11 - July 16

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Politics and the Results of Elections

This week’s early Parliamentary elections resulted in an overwhelming victory for President Sandu’s PAS Party and set Moldova on a new course of reform. International reaction was swift with President Zelensky of Ukraine and President Iohannis of Romania immediately congratulating President Sandu and Moldova for the election outcome. The Russian reaction was far more guarded with the Duma representative for CIS Affairs saying that if Moldova moves away from Russia they will need to “strengthen the transnestria factor.” He went on to note that Transnistria is now between 2 hostile states (Moldova and Ukraine) and that this concerned Russia. The Russian Ministry of Foriegn affairs noted “regrettable external influences” on the election but that they were ready to work with the new government. The overall theme from Western Europe and Moldova immediate neighbors was excitement and celebration while in Russia there was stated concern about Transnistria but promises of engagement. 

Polls Roundup - How Did They Do?

As we’ve talked about many times before, polls can be a bit hit or miss in Moldova. Especially as there aren’t many of them. Here is a roundup of how the final polls conducted in the week before the election fared against the final result. Shown are the expected and actual number of seats in Parliament for each party. 

As you can see from the results, Watchdog.md polls turned out to be the most accurate and largely predicted both the PAS win and accompanying landslide, though they did undercount the Shor Party. While we will continue to hope for more polling in the next election, it looks like Watchdog is the pollster to pay the most attention to going forward. 

How Did Other Parties React?

Following the election, Mr. Dodon held a press conference and conceded defeat for the Communist and Socialist Bloc. He noted that they would go into opposition and respect the results of the election. Specifically, responding to his previous threats to take to the streets in protests, he said that there was no reason for such a reaction after analyzing the results. Presumably the overwhelming reaction and acceptance of the outcome from the International Communist, including the Russian Government, left them with few other options. Mr. Dodon and Mr. Voronin announced that they would continue the electoral alliance between the Communists and Socialists together and form a united block in Parliament. 

Following his disappointing result, Mr. Usatii posted a video message explaining that he was extremely saddened by the fact that he got so little support in Balti where he is the mayor. He took this as a “vote of no confidence” in him personally and resigned as mayor in the video. It’s not clear if this is a heartfelt exit from the political arena or some manner of ploy. Following the announcement “spontaneous protests” occurred outside the Primaria (town hall) with people chanting for him to stay. Diana Grosu of the Lex21 anti-corruption NGO in Balti said that people were in fact forced to attend this demonstration and it was some kind of political ploy. What the future has in store for Mr. Usatii remains to be seen, but his poor performance in the election, garnering 4.1% against the 7% he needed to attain office, seems to indicate that in the short term he will not be a major political force in Moldova. 

Similarly, the entire leadership of the Dignity and Truth Platform (Party) resigned following the election. The party leader Mr. Nastasse did not give a reason but said that the party needed to elect new leadership and find a new direction. Their 2.3% showing was catastrophic for them and assured that none of their current 11 Members of Parliament will keep their seats. 

Mr. Shor, for his part, was also quite disappointed in the results. He stated that he quote “is not sure that those citizens who have been abroad for a long time can correctly analyze what is going on in Moldova.” While he meant to attack the Diaspora voters, the irony was quite clear. Mr. Shor does not live in Moldova. He never attended a meeting of the last Parliament after fleeing in 2019. And he has been in hiding  ever since. 

How Expensive was the Election?

Online news site ZdG compared campaign records to show just how much was spent by each party in the election and to compare the outcomes. The results are quite interesting, especially considering that this is only “legal” spending and the entire campaign was marred by accusations of millions and millions of euros of “off the books” spending by the Communists and Socialists. 

So even officially the PAS Party was majorly outspent but their campaign was far more effective than their rivals. 

What Comes Next?

In the next few weeks, the Central Election Commission CEC will formally certify the results and send them to the Constitutional Court for approval. This may take until the end of July but could be accomplished faster depending on the CEC and the Court. Following the certification the new Parliament will be sworn in and the process of forming a new Government will begin. All of this will likely take until the middle of August. 

Meanwhile, PAS representatives have stated their top 3 priorities as soon as the Government is formed. 1) Judicial Reforms. 2) Attracting new Investment from the EU and preparing to absorb the 600 million euros already pledged. 3) Reforming the Bureaucracy. 

While these are very ambitious goals, they have the political mandate and the electoral power. We will have to see how well they do. 

Moldova Has a New American Ambassador 

This week it was announced that the Biden Administration Kent Doyle Logsdon as new US Ambassador to Moldova. He is a career foriegn service officer with previous postings around the world including Kyiv, Moscow, Almaty and Tbilisi. Mr. Logsdon speaks Russian and Ukrainian and will most likely be brushing up on some Romanian before he begins his posting in Moldova. Ambassador Hogan has served in Moldova since October 2018 and is expected to leave in the coming months as his tenure comes to an end. President Sandu presented Ambassador Hogan with the “Order of Honor” ahead of his expected departure. The award was given for “promoting a democratic and prosperous society.” The actual start date for the new Ambassador has not been announced as Senate Confirmation is still required. 

COVID-19 Update

While our focus has largely been on the election these past 2 weeks, COVID-19 has not gone away in Moldova. The 7 day running averages at this time are 70 cases / day and 2 deaths / day. On face value, these numbers remain low for the country and when you dig in a bit you find that most cases are happening in Transnistria. But health professionals and government officials continue to sound the alarm about the coming Delta variant and a 3rd wave of infections. The Medical University Department of Epidemiology predicts a 3rd wave to begin in August and carry through September. They stress that no new lockdowns or mask mandates are required now but that people must get vaccinated as soon as possible. Moldova currently has a 14.3% vaccination rate for people who have had at least one shot. That does not include dual Moldovan-Romanian citizens who got vaccinated in Romania. So the actual vaccination rate is somewhat higher. But the Interim Government stresses that this is not enough and has released dire warnings saying that they believe the infections that will drive the wave are already occurring. Specifically they note the detection of 13 imported cases from Russia in the last week and indicators that the mortality rate is increasing among the infected. They have decided to proceed with compulsory vaccinations for those who have jobs causing them to interact with the public frequently. This includes healthcare professionals as well as retail shop workers and restaurant workers. The actual recommendation that the Interim Government will make to the Parliament is not yet public, but when asked if they plan to include measures such as mandatory layoffs for unvaccinated workers they responded “we intend to be harsh.”

To underline the magnitude of the potential wave that Epidemiologists, the Interim Government and the WHO are all predicting, it is useful to look at the model currently published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. This model predicts a major 3rd wave with infections and deaths exceeding that which we saw in spring, starting in September and running through October. If you use the tools at the link above to compare countries modeled you will see that Moldova is at risk of becoming one of the most dangerous countries in the world per capita. 

If you have friends in Moldova who have been waiting to get their vaccination, the data says that now is the time to get it. 

State of Vaccinations

Moldova continues to have a large supply of vaccines and to distribute them to the population. Even on election day 10,000 people got vaccinated. Current stockpiles are primarily of AstraZeneca and Sinofarm vaccines and some people have shown hesitancy with these brands and indicated preferences for either Pfizer or Sputnik. Well, Moldova is again in luck because the following vaccine supply announcements were made in the past week: 

• The United States has committed to donate 500,000 Johnson and Johnson (J&J) doses to Moldova. The first 151,000 doses arrived July 12th. A vaccination Marathon will be held in the coming week specifically for J&J. 

• Romania has announced a donation of 100,000 more Pfizer doses to Moldova. The arrival date is not specified but expected in the coming month. 

• The Government’s purchase contract for 700,000 Pfizer doses is beginning to be fulfilled. The first 200,000 doses are set to arrive at the end of July or beginning of August. 

The WHO stresses that there is no reason to wait for a favorite dose as all the options are safe and effective. With the current supply, and doses coming, Moldova has the tools it needs to fight the coming wave. It all comes down to individual decisions made in the next month. 

Economic News

Moldova Railroad Has a New Idea

The beleaguered national rail system is overdue on worker salaries by many months. But they have a solution! Workers should simply pay themselves! The railroad has encouraged workers to take out loans against their coming salaries. The railroad management implied, but did not promise in any way, that these loans would be repaid including interest. It is worth noting that credit in Moldova is very tight and that if the national railroad is not able to take a loan for salaries individual workers are very unlikely to get treated much better. Furthermore, microcredit institutions in Moldova can be extremely predatory with up to 200% annual interest rates. This is not only a laughable idea, but it is a dangerous one. The railroad’s management continues to be unable to grapple with their challenges and it seems that a resolution will only be found when the new government appoints new managers. 

Infrastructure - A Highway from Chisinau to Kyiv

The Ukrainian Government announced that their planned highway connecting Kyiv to Chisinau is already under construction. Presidents Zelensky and Sandu discussed the project this week as a method of deepening economic cooperation between the countries. When completed drivers will be able to travel from Chisinau to Kyiv in as little as 5 hours. Ukraine will pay for the highway in its territory and the new bridge that will be built near Sorocca. Moldova will only be required to build a 7 km stretch of road linking the Chisinau-Soroca highway to the new bride. Anyone who has driven the route from Chisinau to Kyiv will recognize what a game changer this highway can be as the current Ukrainian roads are in terrible shape and driving is very slow on any current route between the capitals. 

New Demographic Numbers

New data has been released detailing Moldova’s population decline. For the 3rd year in a row Moldova has registered a “natural decline”  in population. This means that deaths exceed births by around 9900 persons. Additionally, around 36800 people left Moldova for opportunities abroad last year yielding a net population decline of 47700. As of this moment, 25% of Moldovan citizens live outside the country and more leave every year. These facts pose incredible social and economic challenges for Moldova’s future and the new Government will be forced to find ways to attract citizens back home with work and opportunities that have not existed until now. 

Moldova Facing a Fuel Crisis?

Multiple gas stations around Moldova have unilaterally begun rationing fuel allowing only 10 liters to be sold to cars, 20 liters for minibuses and 50 liters for trucks. Companies claim that new regulations that Parliament voted last month on the calculation of fuel prices mean they are forced to sell at a loss and therefore supply is constrained. It’s first important to note that this did come out of nowhere. We have not covered the ongoing war of words between Parliament and the National Energy Regulator on Moldova Matters simply because it has never been, and is not still, clear what is going on. Members of Parliament have repeatedly accused the major oil companies in Moldova of raising prices together and behaving as a cartel. This was heated language in the middle of a campaign and little proof other than rising gas prices was ever provided. Now, with a new pricing formula adopted by Parliament the gasoline wholesalers have said that they are unable to make a profit. Some are refusing to deliver diesel and premium fuels while others are offering surcharges such as an “unloading the truck charge” to get around regulations. All sides are pointing at the other as at fault which means that this mini-crisis will need to occupy the time of the new Government and Parliament quite quickly to prevent it from becoming a real crisis in the economy. 

Corruption Update

Chisinau Deputy Mayor Chironda Fired

Deputy Mayor Chironda was fired last week by the city council at the request of Mayor Ion Ceban. The vote was carried by a majority composed of the Socialist, Communist, Democratic and Shor Parties and opposed by the PAS and DA counselors. Recall that Chironda has come forward as a whistleblower trying to expose a corrupt scheme involving the Hotel National building. In responding to his firing Chironda posted the following:

"We may or may not like the National Hotel. But he was built from everyone's money, because at that time any investment was of the state and therefore of the citizens. This hotel belonged to our parents. It belonged to all of us. But it was sold for kopecks, without our permission, with the promise of new owners investing $ 33 million, at the value of the 2000s, and renovating it. But the real owners, who are hiding behind some women who are desanted at public discussions today, want to demolish and freely seize all the lands around the hotel to build a new complex of elite apartments. And we all will pay for it."

As with so many other stories, the new Government will have its hands full. 

Ending on a High Note!

Joseph Gordon-Levitt is collecting photos of Moldova? Apparently the actor has asked fans to upload photos of Moldova to a site he created called hitRECord for an unspecified project. While we have no idea what this may be about, it’s always interesting to see a celebrity take interest in Moldova. Perhaps he is planning a movie here? We’ll all just have to wait and see. 

And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!