Weekly Roundup

May 1 - 7

Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Weekly Roundup and other content sent right to your email! And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!

Politics - Elections are Coming

This week’s political stories all revolve around the first moves by parties to prepare for elections on July 11th. Under Moldovan law, there is a 1 month campaign period so we’re in the “pre-campaign” portion of elections where parties and politicians announce their teams and prepare their party lists. 

For a reminder of how the election system works refer to our past Moldova Matters Explainer: How does Moldova’s Government Work? (open) and for a rundown of the relevant political parties see out “Glossary of Moldovan Politics” (subscribers only).

In addition to parties preparing their party lists, many are announcing party to party alliances called “electoral blocks.” In these blocks, multiple parties will create a merged list and appear on the ballot under one name. 

So Who’s Forming Blocks?

This week, the Socialist Party (PSRM) under Mr. Dodon announced it would be creating a block with the Communist Party (PCRM) under Mr. Voronin. These two men have been very much at odds in the past and the Communists have declined to essential irrelevance. But even if the Communists will never get enough votes to get into Parliament (above the 5% threshold) they are going to get some votes which makes Mr. Dodon see them as a potential spoiler. As such, this is not a seismic political move and more of a small tactical win for the Socialists. 

An additional block was announced by populist politician Renato Usati who is bringing together “Our Party” and the “Patria Party” in a block simply named “Renato Usati.” Ironically, both of these parties are personality driven populist groups led by Usati himself. The reason he has 2 parties is that the Patria Party was outlawed by Plahotnuic but has been recently rehabilitated by the courts. It seems that this block is mostly a way to consolidate his organization and ensure that only his name, rather than that of a party, appears on the ballot. Usati has begun adding names to his block including the former director of the Republican Hospital and a former Democratic Party (PD) MP named Yuri Bolbochana. Mr. Bolbochana was arrested, tried and sentenced to 14 years in prison for espionage and treason as a Russian agent of the GRU. Apparently he has rejoined politics while waiting for his appeals to work out. 

The Dignity and Truth (DA) party of Andrei Nastase has announced it will not join any blocks because they don’t have anyone to join with. Specifically they will not join with the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) to recreate the ACUM Block from last election because PAS wants to go it alone. 

Other Parties - Going it Alone

President Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party PAS, will run alone this cycle and has indicated that they believe they stand a chance of achieving 50% of Parliament by themselves. As such, at this early stage they are focused on fundraising and voter registration, especially in the diaspora, instead of politicking with other parties. 

Former Prime Minister Chicu’s Moldovan Development and Consolidation Party (PDCM) has also announced it will take part in elections alone and seems to be trying to drive a wedge into the PAS base. PDCM’s team are all members the the former Government appointed by Mr. Dodon and many are his long term advisors and team. This new “Pro-EU” party seems designed by him as a spoiler to take some votes away from PAS. 

The same can be said about Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban who, it was reported this week, is planning on running as an independent candidate. Ceban is a member of the Socialist party and a close ally of Mr. Dodon. Since he is relatively popular as the Mayor of Chisinau he may siphon some votes that otherwise would go to PAS. In both Chicu’s and Ceban’s cases we are able to see that this is likely to be a pretty underhanded campaign. 

Ilian Shor’s party announced that he will soon return to Moldova to campaign in person. Considering that he is in hiding abroad and would be arrested as soon as he landed here this does not seem likely. But who knows, stranger things have happened in Moldovan politics. 

A final announcement about elections this week came from the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR) Party which will participate in elections for the first time in Moldova. AUR is a right wing Romanian Nationalist Party that promises an agreement for Union between Moldova and Romania by 2024 if they get into Parliament. Big promises aside, AUR represents a consolidation of the Unionist forces which have been electorally fragmented for some years. It will be interesting to see how they fare in this election. 

There are over 50 political parties registered with the Central Election Commission. While most of them are totally irrelevant many will appear on the ballot meaning these ballots are likely to be quite long. 

Other Political News?

In a strong signal as to the campaign he intends to run, Mr. Dodon visited president Lukashenco of Belarus this week. In their meeting Dodon Praised Lukashenco saying that he is “great” “an example” and that “Moldova can benefit from his experience” all referring to the violent crackdowns the dictator used to maintain power last year. Recall, Lukashenco “won” reelection in a contents widely believed to be rigged and then used violence and torture to maintain power as the country rose up against him. Just today Politico had a sobering article describing the torture of political prisoners. It is very telling that Mr. Dodon is choosing the man known as “Europe’s Last Dictator” as a model for Moldova. 

Editorial Note: The author has long advocated for viewing Moldova outside of the geopolitical lens. Politics here has much more nuance than east and west and a major part of why I started Moldova Matters is to bring more nuance to that discussion. But it is impossible to avoid the conclusion that Mr. Dodon’s actions and rhetoric in the last 4 months have explicitly leaned into geopolitics as an electoral message. This is no longer “we want closer ties with Russia” it is now “NATO is coming to destroy the Moldovan state and Dictatorship is good.” It remains to be seen if this triggers a more geopolitical messaging response from other parties, but for the moment it means we will have to use this lens quite a bit unfortunately. 

COVID-19 and Vaccine Update

The last wave of the pandemic continues to subside with a 7 day rolling average of 240 cases and 16 deaths this past week. As you can see from the charts, things are greatly improved from where they were even just weeks ago. 

Blue Line: Daily Cases / Deaths

Red Line: 7 Day Rolling Average

While the numbers and trends are an improvement, the Ministry of Health does not expect this to last and warns of the potential for a major spike in the next 2 weeks. Their fears are based on the fact that Moldovan families gathered all across the country last weekend to celebrate Orthodox Easter. In order to prevent further spread, the authorities have closed the Cemeteries for Memorial Easter. On Memorial Easter, families gather with their buried relatives in cemeteries and celebrate with food and wine while the Priest comes around to give blessings (for a comfortable fee). The Church is protesting this closing and advocates people to be allowed to gather in large groups. We will have to wait a few weeks to see if there is a spike in cases, but it feels that Moldova may snatch defeat from the hands of victory in this wave due to the holidays. 

Vaccine Update

The vaccination campaign is speeding up with the beginning of injections with the Sputnic V vaccines on May 4th. In addition to the Russian and Chinese vaccine deliveries of last week, President Sandu has just announced a deal with Romania whereby 100,000 more doses will be delivered on Friday May 7th as donations and 200,000 additional doses will be available for purchase. As an EU Member Romania has the ability to buy vaccines at prices negotiated by the whole block. In this deal they agree to sell 200,000 of their doses to Moldova at cost, something that will greatly improve Moldova’s purchasing power when compared to individual deals with drug companies. 

With these new doses coming in May, President Sandu has announced that Moldova is ready to begin Phase 3: General Vaccination and has urged the Interim Government to do so. On Friday President Sandu herself got vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine and encouraged all citizens to get vaccinated as soon as they are allowed. The President has said that in the next 3 months they will have the supply to vaccinate anyone who wants it. 

While this is really good news on the vaccine supply, there is one major concern. Even without the new doses from Romania, Moldova has been delivered 684,970 doses and only administered 132,687 shots. At the current rate of around 3000 doses a day it will take 184 days just to work through the current supply. 

This means that the Vaccine question in Moldova has gone from one of supply to one of distribution. The fact that Moldova remains in Phase 2 and is dragging feet on Phase 3 seems to show serious flaws in the organizational process. Family Doctors continue to individually call patients and invite them to come for doses that are sitting unused while the Ministry tries to force a focus on frontline groups that are no longer coming in. 

Meanwhile, Romania continues it’s admirable vaccine rollout by announcing that all age groups are now able to be vaccinated without appointment. Anyone can just show up to the vaccination centers in working hours. Given the large number of Moldova’s who have been scheduling appointments and traveling to Romania for shots this could have a knock-on effect of making it even easier for dual citizens to get the jab. 

Overally, it is very notable that Romania is playing such a massive role in supporting Moldova at this time. For more information on this topic, take a look at Moldova Matter’s lates “Deep Dive: Vaccine Diplomacy and Moldova.”

Economics

The Ministry of Finance cheerfully reported that tax collection is up 17.5% over the same period in 2019. While this is being touted as a positive economic indicator for recovery beyond pre-pandemic levels, it is a truly strange way to look at the economy. Moldova is the only nation I have ever heard of that announces tax collection with the glee or sadness of a Fortune 500 company doing a quarterly earnings call. The total absence of real economic indicators and research means that these numbers are all we have sometimes. But the calculations are done on raw numbers and it’s not known if inflation is calculated in. In the future, I hope to do a Deep Dive into economic reporting in Moldova to highlight how deficient it is. This section in the newsletter is often short because so little is reported. Worse, not one Moldovan University put out meaningful economic research, surveys, indicators or anything during the pandemic. Other than tax revenues, the government and the public often fly blind. 

Restaurants in Crisis

Since the Constitutional Court lifted the State of Emergency, restrictions on operating hours for restaurants have been repealed. But the HoRECA sector continues to feel they are a punching bag by the authorities. During the Constitutional Crisis the Socialists lowered restaurant VAT taxes from 12 to 6%. But no one knows if this is in effect, being implemented or anything. Additionally, the Chisinau city hall is deadlocked on approving regulations for summer terraces. The weather is warm, and people are FAR safer outside than inside with the pandemic. But petty political rivalries have prevented anyone from serving a coffee on a terrace yet. The National Restaurant Association MAR has summed the situation up by saying “clearly, nothing is clear.”

Continued Crisis at the Railroad

Trains in the north of the country will no longer be able to transit Balti as the railroad workers have gone on strike protesting more than 4 months of no pay. Meanwhile, a Parliamentary Commission has released an expansive report concluding that 1.5 billion lei (around $87 million dollars) was embezzled from the railroad in the last 10 years alone. In that time 44 criminal cases have been opened on the topic but only 6 relating to very petty crimes have led to convictions. The report additionally details the types and mechanisms of theft but does not have many concrete solutions about what to do next. MPs are studying the report and will have additional hearings on it in the coming weeks. 

Corruption

Shor’s Offer to Return the Billion

President Sandu has responded to Ilian Shor’s offer to return the Billion USD that he is alleged to have stolen from the Moldovan government. The President assured him that the money would be most welcome as the budget is strapped, but that it will have no effect on his swift arrest when he is found. 

Platon’s Raider Attack has Failed

The raider attack by Platon against Vladimir Rusu’s companies that we have discussed in previously WeeklyRoundups has come to a conclusion in the Courts which upheld Rusu’s ownership of the buildings in question. For the moment, this stops Platon’s scheme which began with the dead of night seizures of 2 large buildings in the capital. Whatever the technical and legal questions here, this is a victory for the rule of law as it demonstrated that questions like this will be solved in court, with both parties present, not through schemes. 

Did Shor’s Lawyer Bribe the Judge on Camera?

A video released this week shows Ilian Shor’s lawyer meeting with the judge presiding over the case at a car wash and giving him a black plastic bag. In response to questions, the judge noted that they are old friends and the bag included some house wine as a gift. Needless to say few are content with that answer and the video seems to further confirm that the Shor case, which has been constantly delayed in court for years, is suffering from extreme corruption of judges. RISE Moldova recently released an investigation proving that a judge in the case has received lavish gifts from Shor including vacations, a small business in the airport and more. This case is turning into exhibit A in the argument that Moldova badly needs judicial reform. 

Ending on a High Note!

This week’s high note has to be the sudden reality that Moldova has an adequate supply of vaccines for practically everyone who wants it. President Sandu getting vaccinated herself and calling on the Interim Government to rapidly expedite the process of entering Phase 3 and opening vaccinations up to everyone is a very positive sign. Let’s all hope that the distribution goes well and this long nightmare may soon be at an end.