Weekly Roundup
January 5th, 2023
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It’s a light news week here in Moldova! Traditionally the time between New Years and Orthodox Christmas (January 7th) is a time that people either take off… or just kinda pretend to work. Consequently, it’s a slow news week and we have a short roundup today. Next week Moldova begins the slow process of post holiday recovery. Usually things are back in full swing by mid-January.
A Christmas Truce in Ukraine?
Today, Patriarch Kirill, leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, made an appeal for a “Christmas Truce” from noon January 6th until midnight January 7th. Far from supporting peace, Patriarch Kirill has been a strong supporter of the war in Ukraine and puppeted Kremlin talking points about the invasion since February - even going so far as to say in a sermon that “military duty washes away all sins."
Fresh out of a meeting with Turkish President Erdogan, Putin rapidly accepted the Patriarch’s call for a ceasefire ordering the Russian Minister of Defense to unilaterally order a ceasefire during the time outlined. He called on Ukraine to do the same.
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak responded as follows:
“The Russian Orthodox Church is not an authority for world Orthodoxy and acts only as a war propagandist. The ROC called for the genocide of Ukrainians, encouraged massacres and insists on even greater militarization of Russia. Therefore, the statement of the ROC about the “Christmas truce” is a cynical trap and an element of propaganda,”
He further noted that Ukraine will observe a ceasefire when Russia fully withdraws from Ukrainian territory.
It is worth remembering that on December 25th, a date when many in Ukraine celebrate Christmas, and on January 1st which is commonly the “Santa Clause and presents” holiday in the former USSR, Russian launched massive barrages of missiles and drones. These holiday attacks were clearly designed to hurt Ukrainians during the holidays. It is impossible to believe that Putin has since caught the Christmas spirit. Further, it is highly unlikely that Patriarch Kiril would make such an appeal without Kremlin instructions. All of which begs the question - what is Putin up to?
Finally, some good energy news
Meanwhile, Moldova is feeling the highest level of energy security in many months. Temperatures in the first week of January reached near-record highs of 11 C higher than the average temperature of past years. This has reduced energy consumption and also improved air quality in Chisinau which has been declining due to prolonged burning of fuel oil in central heating plants.
Reflecting what is an Europe-wide heat wave, natural gas prices on the EU market have fallen so much that it is cheaper for Moldova to buy gas from Romania (900 euros / 1000 cubic meters) than from Russia (around 1200 euros / 1000 cubic meters). Infrastructure Minister Spinu responded to the situation saying that Moldova now has sufficient reserves for the rest of the winter. He also noted that all GazProm gas sent to Moldova is used by Transnistria and not paid for at all. Minister Spinu said the matter of payment between Transnistria and GazProm is their problem.
At least for the moment, Moldova’s mad scramble to re-orient its energy infrastructure towards Europe and savvy dealings with Transnistria, have left the country in a good position as 2023 begins. Who knows what unexpected challenges lie ahead, but as of today things look pretty good.
Political News
This week, 2 new deputies of the PAS faction were approved by the Constitutional Court and took their seats in Parliament. The new MP’s replaced Dumitru Alaiba and Adrian Bălutel who recently got appointed Minister of Economy and Secretary of State in the State Chancellery respectively. The new deputies are a former regional counselor and PAS party advisor. They are numbers 75 and 76 on PAS’ 101 member party list. While this is a normal procedure for replacing an MP who resigns either for executive branch work or another reason, it is also somewhat concerning. PAS is descending pretty far down their party list. This is not to impinge the quality or ethics of the new MPs, only to note that these are people that the party never expected to serve in parliament. Hopefully they have properly vetted their entire party list, as the trend of MPs leaving for ministries does not seem to be ending anytime soon.
Crime and Corruption
Note: This section includes a bit of catchup from before the new year that we couldn’t fit into past roundups.
After the sanctioning of Moldovan oligarchs by the United States and other countries in late 2022 the Moldovan government continues to work on legal mechanisms to implement these sanctions in the nation. The Minister of Justice has announced that Moldova will seek help from American legal experts on drafting the final version of the Moldova Magnitsky act. This is partially in response to outcry from opposition parties as well as independent NGOs over the first draft of the law introduced in December. The Minister has said that the final version will only be voted on once it is brought to “international standards.“
Meanwhile, Moldova is complying with US sanctions as well as Moldovan emergency measures. A list of 142 individuals and 147 legal entities that fall under sanctions was leaked to TV8 after the government transmitted the list to banks. Individuals and companies associated with Plahotniuc, as well as all MPs of the Shor Party and many regional officials of the party are on the list. Associates of the Russian oligarch Igor Chaika are sanctioned including Igor Dodon and the "Moldova Russia Business Association" that employed him. It is unclear what is and isn’t implemented as the law continues towards a final draft.
In Israel, Ilan Shor’s bank accounts have been frozen by the Israeli government. Moldovan officials confirmed this news but noted that it was not because of any outreach they made. Presumably the move was taken in response to US sanctions.
At the same time, Marina Tauber was released from house arrest today. Tauber, the de-facto head of the Shor Party in Moldova, was arrested last summer for illegal party financing, falsifying financial reports, and other financial crimes. Tauber remains under “judicial control” and is essentially out on bail with restrictions on foreign travel. Since her original arrest, Tauber has been kept in solitary confinement, released on house arrest, released on judicial control, and then returned to house arrest. The see-saw of her status is a reflection of prosecutors’ struggle to keep her in pre-trial detention as her lawyers continue to persuade judges to let her out. We’ll see how this develops in the coming weeks and months.
…and that’s a wrap! It has been quite a quiet week here in Moldova as people enjoy the holidays. The warm weather has served to help Moldova and Europe resist Russian energy blackmail… but it is also likely slowing down offensive plans that Ukraine has because the ground has not yet frozen in many areas. In short, our reprieve from an avalanche of news is unlikely to last long so enjoy Old Christmas while you can!