Weekly Roundup
May 29
Yes! We’re doing a weekly roundup again! Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine Moldova Matters has maintained an irregular posting structure bringing updates in the form of Quick Hit articles summarizing the major events in Moldova and regional events in a Moldovan context. While the news in Moldova continues to be completely dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine we’re going to reorganize our format along the former lines of the Weekly Roundup. Weekly Roundups will not have a fixed release day given the continuing unpredictability of events and work schedules driven by the ongoing crisis. But we’ll try and get an update out weekly along with Quick Hits focusing on major stories such as this week’s arrest of former President Igor Dodon. Thanks for bearing with us during these unpredictable times.
Dodon Under House Arrest
Following his detention this week, prosecutors asked a judge for 30 days of preliminary detention for Igor Dodon and his brother in law Petru Merineanu. In Moldova, prosecutors must make a case to the judge regarding pre-trial detention as the case is investigated and brought to official inditement. Prosecutors asked that both men be held in jail under solitary confinement due to the following risks:
"risk of evasion, the risk of interference in criminal prosecution to destroy evidence, the risk of committing new crimes and the risk of public disorder"
Following the hearing, the judge granted the request detaining Petru Merineanu for 30 days in Prison Number 13 but released Igor Dodon to 30 days of house arrest.
Prosecutors publicly disagreed with this decision citing concerns that Dodon will engage in witness tampering and will attempt to cover up evidence as he is capable of meeting with people and communicating freely on the phone and messaging apps. They plan to appeal the house arrest decision.
Commenting on the charges in a press conference, the lead prosecutors initially refused to comment on the treason charge saying "the indictment cannot be made public until the case is substantiated" but then noted that the charges are “not only” about plans to federalize Moldova but also involve other actions taken by Dodon against the interests of the state.
Additionally, prosecutors have announced that they will be investigating the improper leaks of photos and other information that came about during the search.
Federalization?
Multiple commentators have speculated that the treason charges stem from the Socialist Party’s support of a federalization solution to the Transnistria conflict basically following the lines of the 2003 Kozak memorandum proposed by the Russian Federation. Under this plan, Moldova would be split into 3 federal subjects, Transnistria, Gagauzia and the rest of Moldova. Critically, the 2 heavily pro-Russian regions would have a massively disproportionate vote in a newly created upper house, Senate, with 50% of the votes in the body compared to only 18% of the population of Moldova who live in those regions.
While the Socialist Party nominally supported some solution along the federalization lines it has never been a serious point of discussion in Moldova post 2003 and there is little public evidence of Igor Dodon having any connection to this issue. At the same time many people assume that Russia has not lost its ambition to bring about such a political situation in Moldova. We’ll have to wait and see what evidence prosecutors bring to this and other charges.
Dodon Responds to Accusations
Once under house arrest, Dodon has been more free to communicate with the press. He has made a number of statements professing his innocence and decrying what he calls a political prosecution directed by President Sandu. Dodon stated that President Sandu has wanted to arrest him since she took office and that these latest actions were coordinated by her and the US Embassy as a way to distract people from rising prices and economic uncertainty. Broadly speaking, the Socialist party has taken a similar messaging tact with a strong focus being put on the arrest being intended to cover up the government’s failure to deal with the rising economic crisis and inflation. This message has the advantage of avoiding explaining Mr. Dodon’s lavish lifestyle and unexplained wealth, but it is somewhat hampered by the fact that the Socialist party is unwilling to draw any connection at all between the economic crisis and the war. Their basic premise is “PAS is super incompetent and if anyone else were running the show things would be great.” This is a hard message to swallow.
Speaking of which, Mr. Dodon commented to the press about his brother in law’s attempts to eat evidence showing 700,000 euros of transactions, saying it “can be explained by the emotions of a man who returns home from abroad and wakes up at 7 in the morning with masked people at the door, scaring his child.”
The credibility of that explanation will be left to the reader to decide.
President Sandu’s Statement on the Case
President Sandu commented on the case to reporters. Here are some selected quotes:
"I do not know these prosecutors, I found out about this case from the press. The most important thing is that this case, along with others, should enjoy maximum transparency and prosecutors should be guided only by the law. (…) The gentleman targeted by this case, if he thinks he is honest, then he has nothing to worry about ",
"I very much hope that the prosecution does not play political games either on someone's own initiative or on its own initiative, because any political game, any abuse, any violation of the law, whether it comes from public pressure or other reasons, would lead to discredit, further prosecution would discredit reforms and discredit our European path. My call is for the Prosecutor's Office and the other institutions to do their job in accordance with the law "
Marina Tauber Targeted Prosecutors
In additional anti-corruption news this week, prosecutors are moving forward in a case against Shor Party de-facto leader and Member of Parliament Marina Tauber. The Acting Prosecutor General asked parliament to lift Tauber’s immunity which was done with a vote supported by PAS and the Shor Party which claimed it had nothing to hide. Tauber has subsequently been brought in for questioning and charged in a bank fraud and money laundering case. The case is said to involve Banca de Economii and Ilan Shor’s orchestrating of the theft of the billion.
Tauber has not been arrested or detained but is restricted from leaving the country for the next 60 days as the case progresses.
The significance of this case is overshadowed by the arrest of Dodon. At the same time, bringing charges against Ilan Shor’s top deputy and the defacto leader of the Shor Party is a major law enforcement action. Taken together charges have been brought this week against the leaders of both primary opposition parties relating to corruption.
At the same time, her boss Ilan Shor, Vladimir Plahotnuic, Veaceslav Platon, and many others remain at large and have escaped Moldovan justice by fleeing abroad. These critical figures in the theft of one billion dollars from Moldovan banks as well as countless other crimes remain beyond Moldovan justice. To date Moldova has made no progress in attempts to extradite these men. Ilan Shor remains in Israel where he is a citizen and the country is “considering” extradition requests very slowly. Platon is in the UK and no extradition process has begun yet. And Plahotnuic is in parts unknown, assumed to be in Turkish Cyprus but without official confirmation.
To this end, the Ministry of Justice announced this week that it will propose legislation to parliament that would amend laws and allow for trial in absentia. Currently, none of these fugitives is a convicted criminal because they have not been brought back for trial. This law would allow Moldova to try criminals who chose not to show up and face the charges.
Tensions with Transnistria
This week Transnistrian Leader Vadim Krasnoselsky dismissed the “Prime Minister” of the region and dissolved the government. Officials stated that this was because the former prime minister was pursuing new job opportunities and the Minister of Agriculture was quickly appointed to the post and tasked with forming a new government. Internal workings of Transnistrian politics are generally opaque and it is unclear what this means for the region or for relations with Chisinau.
Authorities in the region passed a “law” this week criminalizing appeals by residents to Moldovan or international courts. This is seen as a new mechanism with a 10 year jail penalty to prevent reports of human rights abuses in the region.
Commenting on the molotov cocktail attack against a military recruiting station in the region, local authorities have accused a “personal related to Moldovan law enforcement” of organizing and perpetrating the attack. They claim that this person was captured and is facing a 20 year prison sentence.
Krasnoselsky made a public statement offering to “help” President Sandu control her law enforcement officers and speculating that elements within the Moldovan state were freelancing attacks against the Transnistrian region.
Responding to this Moldova’s Security and Information Service (SIS) made the following statement:
“The SIS considers this a provocation organized by representatives of paramilitary structures in Tiraspol. The statements made by the so-called authorities of the region do not correspond to the truth and are a staging in order to attract attention and demonstrate their importance in the context of a difficult regional situation,”
The security alert in Transnistria was reduced from Red to Yellow but it was announced that all extra security measures of the Red alert status will remain in place.
Pro-Russian Parties’ Political Messaging
Since last year’s crushing electoral defeat the Socialist Party and other pro-Russian elements in Moldova have struggled to organize an effective message. Following the outbreak of the war this got even more challenging and the most clear message that was rolled out was effectively “war is bad, but the Russians are our friends” which was used to completely ignore Russia’s role in the war and try and change the subject.
In the past few weeks we have seen the pro-Russian political elements find a much clearer voice. The message is focused on 2 fronts, kitchen table economics and culture wars.
Firstly, attacks are leveled at the government regarding rising prices. Inflation is predicted to hit 30% this year with food and energy prices being hit hardest. The opposition regularly attacks the government for not managing this crisis and claiming that it is simply a problem of competence. The war is never mentioned either directly or indirectly and the problem is treated as if it is occurring entirely in a vacuum. Energy prices are particularly targeted, with Minister of Infrastructure Spinu being accused of “failing to negotiate” with Russia. The implication, as yet unstated, is that the Socialists would be willing to add political elements to that negotiation and through concessions to Russia would get cheaper gas prices.
Secondly, culture war issues are being tried again. During the last election these issues had little political salience in spite of the Socialists following the Trumpian playbook so closely that they actually used “drain the swamp” in the first paragraph of their party platform. This week the Gagauzian authorities unanimously passed a law banning gay-propoganda in the region. This law would prevent pride parades, pro-gay rights events and speech, and would sanction reporters who wrote about gay rights issues. The law clearly contradicts Moldova’s constitution and vastly exceeds the powers of the regional authorities and as such will not go into implementation. But as a signaling bill we see local pro-Russian authorities promoting a bill championed by the Kremlin and copied by many pro-Russian authorities and fellow travelers (see Florida’s Don’t Say Gay Bill).
Whether these approaches will get any public traction is unknown. What is clear is that these parties are mostly staying away from directly addressing the war and are finding political angles to attack the PAS government that utilize the crisis while ignoring it.
At the same time, not all pro-Russian political voices take such a subtle approach. Vladimir Bukarsky, advisor to the Socialist Party and member of the party team called this week for “flaying the skin off of Ukrainians with "Nazi tattoos" live in front of their wives and children.” It seems that some within the party structure would prefer a more direct messaging approach with regards to the war.
Support fo the Moldovan Military
British Foreign Secretary Lizz Truss launched a discussion on the modernization of the Moldovan Army this week when she stated to the BBC that "I would want to see Moldova equipped to Nato standard," ... "This is a discussion we're having with our allies."
Asked if Russia poses a direct threat to Moldova Truss said "Absolutely. I mean, Putin has been clear about his ambitions to create a greater Russia." .. "And just because his attempts to take Kyiv weren't successful, doesn't mean he's abandoned those ambitions."
This caused Moldovan leaders to scramble to respond to what is not clearly a firm offer of any military support at all.
Speaker Grosu noted that Moldova must pursue a supply of weapons and modernization that do not violate the country’s neutrality. He said:
"We are aware that for decades the state has not invested in the army. And the army has always been a beggar of the budget. But security depends on investment. We will invest in our military to protect our country, to meet the current challenges. We must defend the country, we must have a well-equipped army, a well-equipped border police, we must have a surveillance system,"
President Sandu further commented:
“We didn’t have specific discussions. I saw statements in the press. Moldova is a neutral, peaceful country, it does not intend to encroach on the sovereignty of another country. At the same time, Moldova has a rather weak defense sector and needs to be strengthened. You know that we receive assistance from the EU in the framework of the so-called "peace initiative". In discussions with the military leadership, we will decide if there are other needs that we can meet through this assistance,”
This news was met with major resistance from the Socialist Party which stated that talks like these will only exacerbate the situation.
The leader of Transnistria responded:
“Talks about arming a neighboring state do not inspire optimism regarding stable peace in the region. On the contrary, in my opinion, we need to think not about armament, but about disarmament, about guarantees of one kind or another in order to maintain peace, ”
It is notable that he says this while insisting on keeping the Russian army in Transnistria and with Transnistrian authorities controlling the largest ammunition and weapons depot in Eastern Europe. Disarmament is apparently only for Chisinau.
The Russian Federation also responded saying that they are monitoring the situation and are concerned to uphold Moldova’s “neutrality.”
What may come of this is unknown. It remains unclear if Truss’ comments were signaling of any broader policy or just off the cuff. One thing is clear, the Moldovan authorities are increasingly speaking publicly about the need for major changes in the country’s self defense infrastructure.
Economic Crisis
This week President Sandu convened the Supreme Security Council SSC to discuss the expanding economic crisis. With gasoline prices at a record high of 31.50 lei / liter (~$6.36 / gallon), inflation projected at 31%, and basic commodities such as sunflower oil spiking up only to be swatted down by government price controls, there is much to talk about. Following the meeting, the council made multiple recommendations to parliament and government including the following:
Parliament should setup a committee to examine the decision making process on monetary policy of the last 18 month
The Minister of Economy should act to remove restrictions to the operations of small producers and local markets
The Minister of Economy should develop assistance programs for SMEs
The Ministry of Infrastructure should develop policies to bring transparency and higher efficiency to energy sector companies
These and other recommendations outline what is essentially a conservative approach studying past decision making and expanding existing assistance programs for small companies. Moldova has very little agency in the expanding crisis due to its proximity with Ukraine, massive disruptions of supply chains, energy blackmail from Russia, and a foreign investment climate best summarized as “maybe not.” At the same time, Moldova has a wildly inefficient economy driven by crippling over-regulation. This week I had the pleasure of spending 2 days attempting to pay a $2 tax, an effort that included the concerted efforts of 4 people in my company and that I wrote about here. So while the economic situation is extremely bleak, there is lots and lots to do about it. We’ll write more about that in Moldova Matters soon.
Ending on a High Note
This week prosecutors announced that they would drop desertion charges against former solder Marin Pavlescu. Marin was outed by his officers and refused to return to the army due to bulling and persecution he suffered for being gay. After reviewing the case authorities decided that he did not in fact desert his post but left due to abuses he suffered and that the case should be dropped. While this is not a resounding win for gay rights in Moldova it is a start. Most importantly, Marin can now move on with his life free from the threat of arrest and imprisonment or of a return to service in a unit that rejected him because of who he is.
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