Weekly Roundup: 2023 Ends with Major Announcements
December 29th, 2023
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! Today is our last Weekly Roundup of 2023. The last week has been busy in Moldova but 2 stories dominated the news and we’ll focus on covering them today. We’ll see you in 2024 with more Weekly Roundups and coverage of the most important political, economic and cultural news in Moldova!
President Sandu announces re-election bid and Referendum on EU Membership
On December 24th President Sandu addressed the nation announcing that she will seek a second term as President and calling on parliament to organize a referendum on Moldova’s accession to the European Union next fall. In the address she discussed the many challenges and accomplishments of the Moldovan government since she was elected in November 2020 and said:
“We still have many important steps to take, and I am ready to continue if you have the confidence to give me a new mandate in 2024. There are a lot of us on this path - Moldovans of all professions and from all corners of the world. However, regardless of our activities, regardless of the struggle in which we are engaged, the goals of our path are the same - let there be peace, justice and mutual understanding in the country, so that all citizens can live safely at home,” …
“I ask parliament to initiate the organization of a referendum next fall, in which the vote of citizens will be decisive. I am committed to doing everything in my power to fulfill the mission of European integration. We have received support for this course from member countries, and we need your support, dear Moldovans, in order to succeed,” …
“Several years ago, together with the citizens, we began the journey of transforming Moldova into a better country. When we first set out on this path, it seemed that nothing could influence the corrupt clans in power. Moldova found itself isolated, and they talked about us only as a place for money laundering and about our chronic poverty. But we continued to fight for what we believe in. We received the right to determine our own destiny and gained confidence that we could build a European state. Today Moldova is supported by a coalition of friendly countries that help us and protect us. We saw light on our way. These days, the EU has said a firm “yes” to our European path. Much remains to be done. And the most important thing is to ensure peace and a better future for all families and children of Moldova. Only EU membership can guarantee such a future for us. That is why I believe that it is necessary to clearly tell the whole country which path we are choosing for Moldova,”
How will a referendum work?
After the announcement was made, opposition leaders and pundits immediately called out what they saw as a PAS strategy to hold the referendum and presidential election on the same day. Many noted that this was likely a re-election strategy to bolster President Sandu’s candidacy by associating her even more clearly with the project of EU integration. Others noted that with or without a referendum President Sandu is well positioned to win re-election next fall.
A bigger issue is with the law. Electoral law prohibits the holding of a referendum in the 60 days before or 60 days after a presidential or parliamentary election. Importantly this is a legal restriction and not a constitutional one, referendums have coincided with general elections in the past. Following a few days of speculation parliament amended the electoral code that was already under consideration to allow for the simultaneous holding of presidential elections and a referendum. The amendments were proposed on December 26th and passed into law on December 28th in the second reading.
Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mihai Popsoi addressed citizens in Russian highlighting how the year ahead will have many challenges and disruptions and called for unity saying:
“I would like to congratulate all citizens of Moldova on this significant date when Moldova can begin negotiations on accession to the European Union. In the European Union, like no other place on this planet, all people feel like equal citizens of their countries. And this is what Moldova is striving for. Next year it will be difficult for our Russian-speaking citizens. In the run-up to the referendum on European integration, they will have to contend with more propaganda than our country has ever seen. We will have to unite as a whole country, regardless of language and views,”
“The chance of European integration is a chance for a better future for all citizens, children and elderly people of our country. We will continue to support our citizens who speak Russian and other languages. We will also support them in learning the Romanian language. We know that many Russian-speaking citizens want to learn Romanian in order to more effectively integrate into the social, economic and political processes of our country. And we will support these intentions,”
Deputy Speaker Popsoi also stated that parliament plans on organizing a “constitutional” rather than “consultative” referendum. Exact details have not been announced but it seems that PAS wants to lock Moldova onto a European path by letting the people have a clear say in the process.
Many countries that have joined the EU have held referendums in the process, most of them around 1 year before officially joining the block. Not all countries have had referendums including Cyprus, Romania and Bulgaria. Support for EU membership in Moldova has held steady at around 60-65% even as the popularity of the PAS party has fallen in the past year.
What does the opposition say?
Reactions from opposition parties have been mixed and reflect at least some leaders being caught off guard. Mayor Ceban welcomed the referendum and said he plans on campaigning for its passage.
Mr. Dodon’s position was much more confused. Just 10 days before the announcement he called on the government to hold a national referendum saying:
“The final decision on joining the EU must be made by citizens in a referendum. It should be held now, but the authorities are afraid, since trust in the EU is already falling, and this is only due to their fault,”
Since the announcement however he has been much more ambiguous issuing statements attacking PAS and President Sandu and calling the announcement a political ploy, but not clearly stating his opinion on the referendum itself.
Mr. Shor was far less ambiguous and released a statement enthusiastically supporting the referendum saying:
“Now is the time for all sensible political forces to speak out. For many years, many politicians were embarrassed to speak out loud about the disadvantages of joining the EU. You can no longer remain silent. The movement towards the European Union will only result in disadvantages for Moldova. Our path is to the East!”
Analysis
These statements likely foreshadow the basic contours of the debate in the year to come. Mayor Ceban and various other “recent converts” to the European cause will enthusiastically support the referendum while using every opportunity to attack PAS and distract from their previous support of Russia. The Socialists remain in the political wilderness, drawn to a more overtly pro-Russian message but recognizing the winds of change blowing towards the EU. Mr. Shor unsurprisingly staked out the maximalist position of his Kremlin benefactors and will create as much trouble as possible for the government in the lead-up to the election. 2024 was already going to be a high stakes election year for Moldova, it is now clear that politically the year may be decisive.
Shakeup at the National Bank
Last week in Parliament, hearings were held on the recovery of money lost during Ilan Shor’s “Theft of the Billion.” MP Radu Marian organized the hearings and led questioning of the President of the National Bank Octavian Armasu. Followings questions Radu Marian stated:
“As a result of today’s hearings in the parliamentary commission and at the plenary session of parliament, which revealed serious problems in the work of the management of the NBM: sabotage in the return of money, the hiring and retention of people involved in bank fraud, and obstruction of the investigation - we ask you, Mr. Octavian Armasu, resign,”
**Correction: a previous version of this article stated that Armasu was appointed President of the National Bank in November 2020. The correct year is 2018. The article has been corrected to reflect this.
Mr. Armasu has been President of the National Bank since November 2018 when he was appointed by the Party of Democrats PDM led by Plahotniuc. He was previously the Minister of Finance in the PDM government.
Following the hearings, parliament voted to remove Mr. Armasu from the national bank with 81 MPs supporting the resolution. The critical votes were provided by the Socialist Party which created the supermajority needed for the sacking. Asked why they supported the move, Socialist Party leaders stated that Armasu “was appointed under Plahotniuc” and complained that he supported “international financial institutions” such as the IMF and the World Bank more than the Moldovan people.
The IMF was indeed unhappy calling out the speed of the process and raising questions about due process and the lack of a formal investigation.
They were not nearly as unhappy as the Socialists were when the next shoe dropped.
Less than 24 hours after the forced resignation of Mr. Armasu, parliament appointed Anca Dragu as the new President of the National Bank. Anca Dragu is a Romanian citizen and currently serves as a Romanian Senator and until November was the President of the Romanian Senate. Dragu is 51 years old, a career economist, former Romanian Minister of Finance and previously worked at the National Bank of Romania for 15 years. Her qualifications for the position are clear with one exception - she wasn’t a Moldovan citizen. Or was she?
Actually, President Sandu had granted Anca Dragu citizenship the night before the appointment, but due to the speed of the process this had not yet been officially published when she was nominated for the position. In Moldova the President has the power to make anyone a citizen by presidential decree.
Speaking about her appointment Anca Dragu stated:
“It is a great honor for me to contribute to Moldova’s European path. We need strong, independent institutions that will ensure the economic stability of the country and the well-being of all citizens. It will not be an easy road, but with patience, determination and skill, we can see the European project through to completion,”
Commenting on the process, she said that the appointment was last minute explaining:
“We started discussions several months ago, but they were looking for a person for the post of vice-chairman, for the supervisory board [of the National Bank]. This situation arose yesterday, and then we discussed the possibility of taking the post of chairman of the National Bank of Moldova,”
The Socialist and Communist Parties appealed to the Prosecutor General after the appointment asking him to “check the actions of the leadership of Moldova for treason and abuse of power when nominating a candidate for the post of President of the National Bank.” They focused on the speed of the process, the appointment of a person who was previously not a citizen and the lack of public consultations in their appeal. Former Presidents Dodon and Voronin signed the appeal and presented it in a joint press conference.
What happened?
Clearly PAS managed to effect a shocking and unexpected political victory. The Socialists either felt cornered and unable to support a Plahotniuc appointee, or they were fooled into believing that this would unfold in some other way. What we really don’t know is why now? Since the last election PAS has had an uncomfortable relationship with Mr. Armasu but largely felt they were unable to remove him due to the supermajority vote needed. Was this planned well in advance? or was it a last minute move born of some political opportunity we don’t know about?
Much is unclear. What we do know is that President Sandu and the PAS Party managed to end 2023 with major political announcements and parliamentary action. 2024 will be a very challenging year for the government, for all pro-EU parties and for Moldova generally. But now the line has been drawn in the sand, PAS is ready to be decisive in parliament and there will be a referendum on Moldova’s European future.