Weekly Roundup
September 27th, 2022
Welcome back to Moldova Matters! In this weekly roundup we will check in with the top stories of the week in Politics and Economics. Subscribe to Moldova Matters to get our Weekly Roundup and other content sent right to your email! And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!
Author’s Note: There is a HUGE amount of news this week so the roundup is longer than normal. For those of you accustomed to reading in your email you will see a “read more” link at the bottom as the article exceeded normal inbox limitations. Given the importance of most of the news this week we do encourage you to please read to the end and finish the story on the website (following the link). Thanks!
Mobilization Begins in Russia
On September 21st Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilization” of Russian reserve troops to be sent into Ukraine. He and Defense Minister Shoigu stressed that this was a “partial” effort aimed at people in the military reserves with combat experience and that around 300,000 troops would be mobilized in a series of waves over the coming months. Immediately after the announcement this was proved to be false as non-public sections of the mobilization order were leaked showing a planned mobilization of 1.2 million troops. At the same time Putin signed a law implementing 10 year prison sentences for desertion or surrender.
In parallel with the mobilization effort, Russian occupiers are conducting sham “referendums” in regions of occupied Ukraine - often with “voting” conducted literally at gunpoint. Preliminary results show that all the regions “voted” nearly 100% in support of joining Russia.
In his speech on mobilization Putin threatened the use of nuclear weapons to protect Russian territory saying “this is not a bluff.” The Kremlin has indicated that it will ratify the results of these sham referendums by Friday of this week formally recognizing large sections of Ukraine as Russian territory.
Reaction in the West
Around the world the events of the past week have sparked 2 parallel conversations, one about mobilization and the other about nuclear threats. Regarding mobilization most experts believe that this policy will do little to help Russia reverse Ukraine’s battlefield gains in the short term. Russia lacks the ability to train and deploy these troops much less equip and sustain them. Anecdotally this is backed up by video after video emerging of newly conscripted Russian soldiers being handed rusted-out AK47s or 100+ year old Mosin–Nagant rifles, or be told they will get 2-5 days of training and then be handed a list of things they should buy for themselves (first aid kits, body armor, etc). It appears Russia is trying to throw conscripts into Ukraine with almost no preparation.
On the topic of nuclear threats experts agree there there is a small but non-zero chance of nuclear escalation. From the White House Jake Sullivan warned that there would be “catastrophic consequences" for Russia if nuclear weapons are used and noted that US officials had expressed in detail what this means in private to Russian counterparts. Ukrainian officials have indicated that they take the threat seriously but have no intention of changing their war aims if nuclear arms are used.
Regardless of the efficacy of the mobilization, one this is clear - Putin has now inextricably tied his regime to victory in Ukraine. The Kremlin knows these policies will be unpopular and that in the case of a Russian loss after mass mobilization the regime is unlikely to survive. What isn’t known is how much information Putin has about their actual ability to competently implement such a dramatic and dangerous escalation. From what we have seen so far, things are going very badly.
Russian Men Flee En-Masse
Immediately after announcing mobilization Russian men of military age started booking flights to leave the country seeing flights sold out to any and all destinations and prices for one way tickets skyrocket about $10,000 almost immediately. Meanwhile, it quickly became clear just how incompetent the mobilization process will be, with mass conscription notices going out to people with no military background, severe disabilities, advanced old age, etc. As it became abundantly clear in Russia that this was not a mobilization of the reserves but in fact a mass military draft of all sections of the population, people further made plans to flee with land borders being blocked for miles.
Over 115,000 Russians have crossed into Georgia last week alone and lines at the border stretch 25 kilometers (as many as 2,300) cars with more people crossing on foot.
Given these numbers, there are more refugee Russian men in Georgia (population 2.3 million) than Ukrainians women and children in Moldova (population 2.5 million) at the peak this spring. And they keep coming.
Russian independent new outlet Meduza (in exile) report sources in the Kremlin saying that the borders will be closed on September 28th for all military aged men. Already there have been cases of Russian military being deployed to the border with Georgia with some sources say they are checking for mobilization orders.
In addition to men fleeing to Georgia, Finland, Kazakstan, Mongolia and anywhere still accepting airline flights from Russia, protests have broken out across the country. In most cases these protests are small and protestors are immediately arrested or conscripted on the spot (with reported cases of torture and rape after arrest). At the same time larger, violent protests are being recorded in Dagestan with videos of massive brawls between protestors and riot police. Unrest in Russia’s poorer, more rural regions, is more acute than the big cities. These regions have already suffered disproportionate losses in Ukraine and there are stories of small towns where all of the men are drafted in one day.
To understand just what a disaster the first week of mobilization has been in Russia, watch this clip of Putin’s top propagandists discussing all the problems and calling for various members of the military to be “shot” for incompetence or sent the the front. They leave it unclear which they think is worse.
Moldova Reacts to Russia’s Mobilization
A major debate raging in Europe is what to do with the sudden appearance of masses of Russian refugees. For the moment, Finland, Georgia and Kazakhstan are welcoming and promising to shelter refugees while Poland and the Baltic states are mostly closing their borders. So far, Moldova has not had to weigh in as the lack of direct flights or land border crossings has not made Moldova a likely destination for escaping Russian men. Over 24 hours on September 22 around 200 Russian citizens entered Moldova, a decrease from a normal day pre-mobilization. At the same time Russians with family in Moldova are making their way via circuitous routes to the country and the Moldovan Embassy in Moscow has announced extended hours and expedited document processing to help citizens leave Russia if they want.
Directly responding to mobilization Speaker of Parliament Grosu said:
"Currently, all Ukrainian and international military experts say that there is no danger for the Odessa region. The first thing that can affect us is a new wave of refugees,”
As we have written about before at Moldova Matters - Odessa is 100% the key to Moldovan security in this war.
He was most likely referring to Ukrainian refugees where there has been an uptick in crossings after mobilization and in advance of the cold season. We’ll have a new article on the refugee situation in Moldova soon.
Sandu Convenes the Supreme Security Council
In response to Russian mobilization, President Sandu convened the Supreme Security Council to organize Moldova’s response to a rapidly evolving security situation. After the meeting, the President addressed the press with a few key points:
Citizens of Moldova who fight for the Russian federation (as dual citizens) will risk losing their Moldovan citizenship. Moldovan citizens who are not Russian citizens also will face new criminal penalties if they fight for Russia.
Moldova is conducting diplomatic outreach to the Kremlin to try and find ways to prevent Moldovan dual citizens from being drafted (similar efforts are being conducted by multiple Central Asian states with little success to date).
President Sandu stated that use of nuclear weapons, or nuclear accident, is "unlikely but not impossible." She instructed the government to check the readiness of state agencies and the population in the case of a nuclear catastrophe.
A public campaign about what to do in the event of a nuclear escalation is to be launched. The government has already published a website instructing citizens on what to do in the case of such a disaster. The website is highly detailed about seeking shelter, decontamination, when to trust food and water, and even pet care in the event of airborne radiation.
Responding to a question, President Sandu once again reiterated that Chisinau does not have a working set of bomb shelters left from the Soviet time. She said that most are in disrepair or were privatized and that a workable set of shelters cannot be put together in the coming months. At the same time she noted that medium / long term the government will begin restoring this defense capability.
Shortly following these announcements, the authorities announced that on September 28th emergency services will hold exercises simulating a response to a nuclear / radiological incident.
Meanwhile, in the last week the Moldovan army held exercises and live-fire drills with advisors from the Romanian and US Armies. These exercises are part of an annual program ongoing since 2015 and were not unscheduled. At the same time, given the regional situation citizens seeing columns of military vehicles on the road resulted in confused posts on social media and the “government” in Tiraspol complained that some Transnistria villages could hear the artillery and were nervous.
Moldova’s Security Tightrope
Last week, prominent American Political Scientist Francis Fukuyama wrote an article for American Purpose urging support for Moldova’s democratic government and keenly outlining the security dilemma the country faces. Professor Fukuyama visited Moldova at the beginning of the month with Stanford University’s Leadership Academy for Development (a training program this author had the good fortune of participating in) and he met with President Sandu to discuss Moldova’s challenges. In his article, he outlines Moldova’s gas-diplomacy tightrope that we have previously discussed in Moldova Matters. Particularly Chisinau’s leveraging the fact that if Russia cuts of Moldova this winter Transnistria will also be cut off and will have to buy gas from Chisinau at market rates.
We will soon see how this strategy is playing out. On October 1st Moldova’s gas supply contract with GazProm officially switches from “summer” to “winter” wherein the price calculation formula for the price of gas swings in Moldova’s favor - basically, natural gas should get cheaper. At the same time GazProm has not officially said if they will honor the contract and has left it a possibility that they will use this deadline to either force a re-negotiation or cut off Moldova’s gas supplies. We’ll see next week.
In addition to the discussion of energy politics, Professor Fukuyama added a previously unknown detail in the analysis of Moldova’s security position. In the article he writes:
"Additionally, there is another factor. Transnistria is home to one of the largest Russian ammunition depots in Europe–a depot so large that an explosion there [90+ km from Chisinau] would shatter windows in Chișinău. The Ukrainians would like to get their hands on this stockpile, but letting them do so would inevitably draw Moldova into the broader conflict."
The Cobasna ammunition depot is located in Transnistria and is often cited as the largest conventional munitions stockpile in Europe - filled with Soviet era munitions. We’ve discussed the depot previously on Moldova Matters and noted that many international experts privately say that the depot may in fact be empty (having already been sold on the black market) or filled with dangerous but unusable ammunition. Professor Fukuyama, presumably referring to information from his meeting with the President, implies that both the Moldovan and Ukrainian government believe this ammunition may be viable. Cobasna is only a short walk across a few farm fields from the Ukrainian border and there is no doubt that the Ukrainian army could capture it if they wanted - though without invitation from Chisinau they would be violating Moldovan sovereignty in the process. This implies a substantial card in the Moldovan government’s hand when dealing with Russia who doubtlessly do not want this ammunition falling into Ukraine’s hands.
So if Russia cuts of Moldova’s gas would Chisinau give the green light to Ukraine to seize the munitions? It’s hard to know what to make of this new information from Fukuyama but it implies a more complicated diplomatic game is playing out behind the scenes than was previously thought.
A Busy Week for International Diplomacy
Even before news of Russian mobilization, this was set to be a major week in international diplomacy for Moldova with the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. Last Monday, President Sandu first flew to London where she attended the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II and extended condolences to the British people:
“I share the grief of the British people and the world at the death of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. Her distinguished lifelong service, inspiring leadership, and commitment to the world have marked the fate of many generations. My thoughts are with the Royal Family and the people of Great Britain,”
Following the funeral, President Sandu flew to New York with Polish President Duda, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Estonian President Alar Karis.
While in New York, the Moldovan President addressed the General Assembly focused on the war in Ukraine and Moldova’s desire for peace. (Excerpts taken from here and here.)
"This war is not only an attack on our neighbor and friend, Ukraine. This is an attack on the rules-based international order, an attack on nuclear security, an attack on food supplies to the countries of the Middle East and Africa, an attack on the UN,”
“It is our moral duty as an international community to continue to support Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting today to protect all of us. She needs our support. Europe, we all must help Ukraine,”
"I am at this forum to represent a country that wants peace. I represent here the citizens of the Republic of Moldova: regardless of the language we speak - Romanian, Ukrainian, Russian, Gagauz or Bulgarian -, regardless of our ethnicity or political preferences, regardless of whether we live on the right bank of the Dniester or in the Transnistrian region, we all we want peace.(…) The illegal presence of Russian military troops in the Transnistrian region violates our neutrality and increases security risks for our country.
We demand the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops. We call for the destruction of the ammunition in the warehouses at Cobasna, which represent a threat to the security and environment of the entire region.
While we strive to maintain peace, our economy and society bear the brunt of Russia's war against Ukraine."
The President also called for an international sanctions mechanism to fight corruption and spoke to the UN Education Summit on the importance of a global focus on education not conflict.
On the sidelines of the summit President Sandu met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken who said:
“I must express my admiration for you, Madam President, and your colleagues, it is boundless. You are now facing difficult trials in extremely difficult circumstances. But know that the United States strongly supports you in what you are doing,”
Later, after meeting with the Director of USAID Samantha Powers, Director Powers said:
“It so happened that Ms. Sandu is my daughter's personal hero, proof that girls can do anything,”
While President Sandu took center stage in her UN visit, Prime Minister Gavrilita was also on the road attending the funeral of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and meeting with Japanese Government officials in Tokyo.
Taken together, the last week may have been the most significant diplomatic tour-de-force in Moldovan history in sheer number of interactions with high level world leaders and Moldova taking a critical place in the center of international affairs.
Shor’s Protests - Attempts to Destabilize Moldova
Last Sunday, September 18th the Shor party began the first large scale opposition protests against the PAS government since elections just over 1 year ago. Protestors occupied the streets between Parliament and the Presidential administration chanting "down with Sandu" and promising to continue protesting until the government collapses. Speaking to reporters, protestors claimed they were there in support of cheaper gas, better relations with Russia and when asked about the war some claimed that “Russia was there to protect Russians not hurt Ukrainians.” Ilan Shor, the fugitive oligarch wanted for orchestrating the theft of $1 billion dollars from 3 Moldovan banks appeared on a large television carried through the crowd by protestors.
Organizers claimed that over 40,000 people came to protests while police reported around 6500 people attended. Following the protest, a smaller group set up tents on the street and vowed to stay there until the government resigned.
When asked by reporters, protestors, mostly elderly people who were bussed in from the villages, said that they were paid 400 lei (~$20) to protest or 1200 lei (~$60) to spend the night in tents. It is worth noting that all the tents were identical and new.
On September 25th, a second Sunday of protests was held by the Shor party drawing around 6000 protestors according to the police (organizers again put out wildly exaggerated figures). Some protestors became agitated and attacked the police. Responding to questions by journalists about paid protestors Shor Party leaders denied this and demanded that they “present evidence.”
This was not necessary however, as Ilan Shor on his walking TV set and online video publications admitted he was happy to pay for protestor’s transportation as well as for food and water for them. It is worth noting that paying protestors is a crime in Moldova. Journalists additionally uncovered evidence that Shor paid over 7000 euros on facebook ads for the first Sunday of protest alone.
Authorities have issued few comments on the protests except that people have a right to protest peacefully. Though some leaders have denounced Shor’s attempts to politically destabilize Moldova while being sheltered in Israel.
Ilan Shor - Russia’s new man in Moldova?
The advent of this new protest movement coincides with some major changes in Russia’s approach to Moldovan politics. In the past, Ilan Shor did not have support from Moscow and he was banned from entering the Russian Federation in 2015 (for various criminal activities). Now, Shor Party representatives are greeted in Russia and promised special gas prices for the regions they control local government (with no concrete measures specified). Russian propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Margarita Simonyan (seen above in the video lamenting the disastrous mobilization) openly support the Shor protests on their Telegram channels and call Ilan Shor the “leader of the opposition” in Moldova.
More concretely, local outlet Newsmaker reported this week that 2 Moldovan television channels, Primul and Accent TV, which were previously controlled by Igor Dodon’s Socialist Party had transferred ownership through their Russian parent companies to groups linked with Ilan Shor. This signals actual financial and official backing of Shor by the Russian government through Russian oligarchs who have typically managed the movements of these TV channels.
Meanwhile, where is Igor Dodon?
Looking rather powerless. Dodon is still under house arrest but he has tried to support the protests calling for his supporters to join and for the Socialist Party that he previously led (and remains Honorary Chairman of) join officially. No prominent Socialist Party figures attended and the party remained silent on Dodon’s call to support Shor.
Opinion columnist Evgeniy Cheban convincingly argued this week that we are seeing a full shift of Russian support towards the Shor Party - and that this is a major miscalculation. Shor’s constituency is elderly and highly socially vulnerable - people who are drawn to his populism and his chain of discount social stores around the country. Outside of this small section of support, he is reviled in Moldova. Shor’s complicity in the Theft of the Billion is widely accepted and he embodies “corruption“ to many Moldovans. Evgeniy Cheban argues that with the Shor Party permanently occupying the square protesting, they might actually be keeping other people away from protest. While many groups are unhappy with the government, few are willing to associate with Shor. The Socialist’s silence on the protest movement may be proof of this last point. In this case, Russia’s abandonment of the troubled Socialist Party for the reviled Shor Party either looks like a blunder - or desperation.
You Made it! That was an unusually long Weekly Roundup for unusual times. We’ve cut out a few items of economic news we’ll catch up on next week. Let’s hope Putin doesn’t give us a whole new catastrophe to try and process before then…
And consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work at Moldova matters. For just $5 / month, the price of a nice coffee, you can support this work and help us expand into even better content!
Wow, and thanks for the link to the Fukuyama article. Haven't seen anything about Peace Corps on track to return to Moldova yet - have you heard anything? So proud of President Sandu, have always wished I got a chance to meet her (she sent a deputy to our swearing-in.) - Connie McClellan
Well done, as always, David.