Violence Next Door: Russia's Bombardment of Odessa and a Murder in Transnistria

Weekly Roundup July 23, 2023

Russia Bombards Odessa Nightly

Over the past week Russia has bombarded Odessa nearly every night targeting both economic and civilian infrastructure. Last night, targets included residential areas of the city’s UNESCO protected historical downtown as well as the historic Transfiguration Orthodox Cathedral which was heavily damaged.

Inside of the Cathedral - Photo source AP accessed via twitter

Many of the attacks were targeted at the port city’s grain export facilities following Russia’s withdraw this month from the grain export deal that allowed shipments of Ukrainian grain to leave the port. Ukraine produces 10% of the world’s cereal grains and major disruptions to this supply are predicted to result in soaring prices and famine in countries highly reliant on Ukrainian grain - especially in Africa. Speaking on Russian state television propagandist Margarita Simonyan explained the strategy saying “our only hope is with famine.” She went on to explain that by causing widespread famine Russia could hope to leverage sanctions relief.

The closure of Odessa to grain exports means that Ukraine and Moldova’s Danube river ports are now critical to the export of Ukrainian grain. Preparing for this Moldovan Railways is preparing for increased traffic and will discount shipments destined to the EU or to the 2 primary Danube river ports of Giurgiulesti (Moldova) and Reni (Ukraine). Giurgiulesti is a small port and its use for Ukrainian grain exports has partly driven the protest of local farmers who complain of “dumping” of Ukrainian grain as well as rising costs and access to local infrastructure. Similar issues are occurring in Romania where the government is considering prioritizing local exports at the port of Constanta during the harvest season. While the situation is strained, experts say that it is stable but warn that future attacks against Ukraine’s Danube river ports could make the situation much more dire.

Responding to the week’s attacks against Odessa President Sandu and Prime Minister Recean condemned the strikes against civilian infrastructure and noted how “heart-wrenching” the scenes of destruction are to a city that so many Moldovans visit and love.

These attacks highlight how intertwined Moldova’s economic and security interests are with Ukraine, especially the city of Odessa.

Transnistrian Opposition Politician Oleg Khorzhan Murdered

One of the main stories this week in Moldova was the murder of Transnistrian opposition politician Oleg Khorzhan, leader of the Communist Party of Transnistria. Moldovan authorities announced that he was murdered in his home near Tiraspol where his wife found him shot to death. He was lying near an open safe that had been emptied. Later statements by the Transnistrian “authorities” contradicted the Moldovan government statements about a shooting saying instead that he had died of multiple stab wounds to the neck and blunt force trauma to the head. They noted the empty safe and are considering this a case of “murder motivated by robbery.” In addition to the empty safe (it is not known what the safe might have contained), the perpetrator stole a laptop that acted as the recording device for the house’s CCTV cameras.

Oleg Khorzhan was recently released from prison in December 2022 after serving 4 years for allegedly striking a police officer at an “unsanctioned” political protest. He was widely viewed as a political prisoner for his opposition to the Transnistrian “authorities” and was ruled wrongfully detained by the Moldovan Supreme Court of Justice. He previously gave an interview from prison to Moldovan news outlet Newsmaker where he claimed not to have been convicted in a Transnistrian court but in a “Sheriff” court. Referring to the holding company whose oligarchic owner largely controls the breakaway region. In the interview he spoke about the threats against him saying:

"They are very afraid of my release. They understand what consequences this can lead to for them. I will say more: they would have got rid of me long ago, just as they did with their opponents in the nineties. You know the principle of our oligarchy: no man, no problem"

Speaking of the political goals of his party he said:

"Our main goal is to liberate Pridnestrovie [Transnistria] from the current oligarchic anti-people regime, democratize the republic, protect the rights and freedoms of citizens"

On July 9th of this year Oleg Khorzhan, representing the Transnistrian Communists and other opposition groups, signed an agreement of cooperation with Civic Congress Party leader Mark Tkachuk in Chisinau. The agreement declared cooperation and solidarity between the opposition parties on either bank of the Nistru. Mark Tkachuk was prevented from entering Transnistria for the funeral, but other members of the Civic Congress and Moldovan Communist Party were allowed to attend the small ceremony.

Following the news of the murder, Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky, an arch political enemy of Oleg Khorzhan, announced that the investigation would be conducted under his “personal control.”

Moldovan authorities have called for an independent investigation overseen by the OSCE. Given the OSCE’s responsibility for overseeing the “security zone,” and the fact that the murder took place within this zone, the Moldovan representatives of the Joint Control Commission have said that this is the proper way to assure independence. The OSCE has said that it is prepared to support an investigation but the Transnistrian “authorities” have not yet agreed to any cooperation. They did however reach out to the Moldovan Ministry of Internal Affairs asking for help in “identifying and apprehending” suspects located in the territory controlled by Chisinau. No suspects were named and it is possible that this is an attempt by the Transnistirans to insinuate that the murder was carried out by someone from the right bank (Moldovan controlled territory).

Right now we do not concretely know a motivation for this murder or who was involved. But the political prominence of the victim as well as the resistance of the Transnistrian “authorities” to participate in an independent investigation have generated suspicions of political motivations. We’ll track updates at Moldova Matters as we get them.

Author’s Note: We don’t much cover sports at Moldova Matters, but some readers may recall that in 2021 - 2022 FC Sheriff Tiraspol won a spot in the Champions League and beat Real Madrid in a huge upset game. At that time I was often asked how Moldovans felt about this underdog success story. The reality is that the company “Sheriff” which owns the team, all the gas stations in Transnistria, all the supermarkets in Transnistria and much of the regions industry has a specific representation to most in Moldova. This company, with it’s 5 pointed cartoon wild-west sheriff’s star logo is an icon of the oligarchic rule and political oppression in the region. This weeks tragic murder is a reminder that Transnistria is not only a breakaway region but a region ruled by a corrupt elite that cares little for the rule of law or citizen’s political rights.

Political Updates

Here is a roundup of the other political stories making headlines this week:

• Neither President Sandu nor Prime Minister Recean attended the inauguration of the new Bashkan in Gagauzia. Explaining the decision President Sandu said:

“I consider it wrong to go to the inauguration of a person who was supported by a criminal group during the election campaign and who belongs to a party declared unconstitutional,”

• Former Bashkan Irina Vlah claims she was offered the job of ambassador to Turkey. Vlah said she refused and that the offer was a PAS plot to get her out of the country and out of participation in politics. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied her claims saying that no one spoke with her about a job either officially or unofficially.

• A new "National Agency for the Prevention and Combating of Violence against Women and Domestic Violence" will be created in Moldova. The agency is part of Moldova’s obligations as a signatory to the Istanbul Convention “on Preventing and Combating Violence Against Women and Domestic Violence.” The agency will be independent but subordinate to the Prime Minister with both national and local offices. Moldova joined the Istanbul Convention in October 2021 with the Socialist and Communist Parties boycotting the vote.

• Parliament appoints new candidates for the National bank Supervisory Board. Early in the week it was announced that parliament was considering 17 candidates for 4 open positions on the supervisory board. Among them was former Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita and former head of the State Tax Service Rozalina Albu. On Thursday it was announced that former PM Gavrilita and the Vice Director of the National Commission for Financial Markets, Vitalie Lemne, were selected for 7 year terms on the board. Parliament will select 2 more candidates in the near future. As part of a political non-affiliation requirement of joining the supervisory board former PM Gavrilita will resign from membership in the PAS Party.

• Parliament proposes bill to change tax law in Gagauzia. Under the current law the region has tax-autonomy meaning that VAT taxes collected in the region are directed to the regional government. But under a 2004 law tax revenue from the region remains local, but tax refunds for VAT (triggered when exporting or under other conditions of overpayment) come from the national budget. Chairmen of the Parliamentary Commission on Economy and Finance Radu Marian claims that the proposed law fixes this loophole and will save the national government 500 million lei over 5 years. Newly elected Bashkan Evghenia Guțul claims this is a retaliation against the region for electing her on the eve of her inauguration.

• Opposition politician Renato Usatii claims that the reason for the re-appointment of Minister of Infrastructure Andrei Spinu is that Minister Spinu demanded the position and controls a loyal block of MPs within the PAS Party significant enough to force the government’s hand. PAS representatives denied the rumor insisting that Minister Spinu is the best person for the job. Usatii is sometimes called the “best informed man in Moldova,” regularly reporting various political secrets - some true and some false. This allegation is unproven but mirrors previous rumors of splits within PAS and the Minister’s ability to call on the personal loyalty of some party members.

• Journalists from Newsmaker analyzed 3 years of data from Meta (Facebook) on political and issue spending in Moldova. In their analysis they looked at 37,029 political of socially relevant ads paid for on the network at a total cost of 729,016 euros. Of this spending, 211,000 euros were spent by pages affiliated with the Shor Party. Additionally around 50 more “fake” pages set up to evade Meta’s political / social issue detection were created by persons linked to the Shor Party with each small page spending 5,000 to 9,000 euros in amounts limited to avoid easy detection. Additionally, 44,000 euros were spent by wanted Oligarch Vyacheslav Platon, in some cases on pages designed to disguise the origin of the funds. Of this around 19,400 euros were spent on pages promoting disgraced journalist and partner of Platon, Natalia Morari. Pages owned by the PAS Party or President Sandu collectively spent around 87,000 euros mostly during the election season. Similarly pages by opposition politicians such as Renato Usatii and Platforma DA spent smaller amounts, also on pages clearly controlled by their political factions. In the last week alone Shor affiliated pages spent $10,000 on Meta advertising. Given that the Shor Party no longer exists and Ilan Shor himself is under US Government Sanctions it appears that Meta is unable or unwilling to cut business ties even if accepting this money has potential criminal liability.

Economic & Infrastructure News

Here is a roundup of the economic and infrastructure stories making headlines this week:

• Moldova has signed a Memorandum of Cooperating expressing interest in becoming an investor in Romania’s Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant. Currently the plant operates 2 reactor Units but is developing plans for the creation of Units 3 & 4. Investment from Moldova would be made from state energy company Energocom. There is currently no clarity on what this relationship would look like but the goal would be to provide Moldova with a cheaper, reliable source of electricity.

• Energy Minister Parlicov announced that Energocom is currently stockpiling natural gas for next winter. It is currently being purchased at market prices of around $400 / 1000 cubic meters. Moldova plans to stockpile 450 million cubic meters by October 1 and the Minister says that purchases will become larger and more frequent as we get closer to that date. Moldova is currently searching for financing to fully implement this plan. In winter, Moldova (without Transnistria) consumes around 1 - 1.3 billion cubic meters of gas. This plan is likely designed to create enough reserves such that the country can fully supply itself from a combination of these reserves (stored in Ukraine) and the smaller pipeline connecting to Romania.

Crime and Corruption

Here is a roundup of the crime and corruption stories making headlines this week:

• Marina Tauber released from house arrest (again). The leader of the Shor Party in Moldova has been released from house arrest for a 3rd time and is under “judicial control.” She announced that she wants to run for Mayor of Balti (again) this November.

• Prosecutor’s bring the Theft of the Billion case against Plahotniuc to court. The case details Plahotniuc’s role in Ilan Shor’s theft of over $1 billion dollars from 3 Moldovan banks in 2014. Plahotniuc is accused of withdrawing $39 million dollars and 3.5 million euros from the banks and laundering the money through Shor affiliated holding companies. The money was spent on personal matters including an Embraer Legacy 650 private jet. Anti Corruption Prosecutors have (finally) taken the case to court and report that they have already seized assets worth 50 million euros from the fugitive oligarch.

• The National Anti Corruption Center finished an investigation into alleged illicit wealth held by Minister of Infrastructure Andrei Spinu. Ilan Shor had previously alleged that the Minister held around $40 million dollars in unreported offshore accounts. The National Anti Corruption Center investigated and found no evidence of any illicit wealth held by the Minister. These false allegations by Shor appeared targeted to smear Minister Spinu and divide PAS.

• Renato Usatii produced pictures and videos that he alleges show environmental crimes perpetrated by the Chisinau Termoelectric company. The opposition politician claims that the company has been dumping unused, low quality, fuel oil in open pits dug in the ground. The company denies the allegations. Local prosecutors have opened a case to investigate Usatii’s claims.

Ending on a High Note

Or at least a comical one. Residents of Chisinau were shocked today by photos of a car that appeared to have crashed into a city trolleybus.

Source point.md

While the picture looks disturbing it is not what it appears. They mayor’s office came out with clarifications that a movie is being filmed in the capital and the violent looking crash was staged, presumably as part of some high speed chase scene.

We don’t have any information on what movie is filming in Chisinau, but the idea that some movie with a special effects budget large enough to do something like this is intriguing. We’ll be following this going forward at Moldova Matters.